Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Think there might be a spot this week in Strictly.

The shape of the field is similar to the last few years: we have a poor but popular contestant, then a group of fairly similar standard people far above. The dance off format of the bottom two when votes and judges' scores are combined does throw up funny results sometimes.

Ed is terrible but gets votes. Daisy isn't popular but she looks absolutely fantastic in training. Laura is sketchy with the public but looks OK. Greg is probably the second weakest dancer but looks absolutely fine in training and has a comfortable dance for him this week in a Viennese Waltz.

Claudia is popular but her training footage shows her having a real balance problem in the Paso. The reason for that isn't her core (obviously) but because she's not betting her weight right. The appels (where you stamp your foot) are terrible and she's admitted on It Takes Two that she is worried about falling over when she does them. That is a very bad sign. She is also practicing in trainers, which is a concern, as, when you're struggling with your balance, you surely need to practice in the sort of shoes you'll be wearing on the night.

One of two things will happen if I am right. Either the judges will point out she's struggled (which she will admit on tv, as she has all week, so it won't provoke votes of sympathy or rage) or they'll fawn over her like they have in recent weeks (and the public won't like it, when they think someone has obviously been overmarked).

I can see a Pixie Lott style exit this weekend. Ed is saved by the public. Then we are left with two better people facing off. If true - and there will come a point soon where Ed doesn't escape the dance off - we need to imagine what that will look like. You are likely getting someone who is unpopular with the public but is scored well with the judges on the night. They will be odds on in a dance off to go through. Simon Webbe was perfect for that two years ago.

I think that's Daisy this year. Her Paso last week in the dance off was the best dance of the weekend. A good 36, no question. She's improved in both dance offs she's had. Again, that's a strong sign she can giant kill. This week, she is dancing a Viennese Waltz to Daisy Bell by Harry Dacre. That's a nice, simple song for those dance and she has wonderful footwork, long strides and the dance looks made for her.

Laura is a clear second favourite to go and offers no value at all.

I can see Claudia struggling tonight. Shes doing a Paso to a modern, bouncy pop song (a historically bad move).

On footage, Claudia loses to Daisy heads up. She probably gets saved against Greg. She beats Ed, obviously. Laura is a flip.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

Claudia Fragapane is 25/1 generally to be the next elimination. The reality is she's scored generously each week and the voting public have been kind to her, too. But there has to be a price and I'd happily set the chances of her going this weekend at higher than 4%.

It's not a price to go nuts with, but there's a perfectly fair £10 bet there to be had.

Incidentally, our long term bet on Daisy to win can't win unless the public take to her. If she does well tonight, maybe the tide can turn..? We can but hope.

Lovely work Simon, thanks.

We have £10 @ 25/1, Claudia Fragapne, Next Elimination.


BET PLACED

[tikay]

15 runners in the 3.25. 

One of those days, doobs, but there's 'nowt we can do about it, and it was not as if it was likely to happen given the ground has not changed significantly.

Just one of those things.

[Cavey007]

15 runners in the 3.35.  

Sky are still staying 5 places... Just replaced my voided bets on there. On 5 of them now.

Ah t and cs apply but not easily findable. Guessing it was 16 minimum then

[Doobs]

15 runners in the 3.35.  

Sky are still staying 5 places... Just replaced my voided bets on there. On 5 of them now

Think baldfred paying 5 too.  Rest are paying 3.   

At least we have a decent price on Cape Cova though guess we lose a bit on deductions.  Other two seem strong in the market too, though hard to be sure with all the non runners.

[doubleup]

yeah bald 5 places - anyone with money in their account should just back a few wuth chances

[Doobs]

Cape Cova finished 3rd.   Had chances, but winner had more than enough in hand.

[Doobs]

15 runners in the 3.25. 

One of those days, doobs, but there's 'nowt we can do about it, and it was not as if it was likely to happen given the ground has not changed significantly.

Just one of those things.

Got to do some stuff.  Will sort out any cash later.  Might look at the Breeders Cup much later, so don't send anything yet Tikay. 

FWIW Made about 3% on Cape Cova with 365.  Woohoo.

And Andy Murray is World number one.  Well done him.  Much deserved.

[superwomble]

Thanks for the cricket bet!

For those who were bullish on AFC Wimbledon. They are above 2/1 for the FA Cup vs Bury who have lost seven in a row. Thoughts? Full strength team from the Dons? Good price?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/fa-cup/bury-v-afc-wimbledon/winner

Like.

They are perfect for an away Cup tie. Bury had that early-season run of wins but even then just looked like relegation fodder having a good spell.

I hope you're right but I wonder if team news might be important. Ardley has seemed to be careful with his words in the last day or two about who will be playing due to the CrapATrade rubbish coming up. Poleon and Charles are definitely out and both are big misses. I know Bury have a lot of injuries though and are in very poor form so I'm hoping any team we do put out is good enough.

Barnett starts upfront instead of Elliott. Not good news for us.

Losing 2-0 with Barnett playing, drew 2-2 when Elliott came on, and he got the equaliser. What could have been. Hope the replay is better.

[Chompy]

Hard to believe Barnett went for £1.1m. In fact it's amazing.

[arbboy]

Anyone who loves a short one In the championship should have a look at the gd column in the table tonight. Take out the two extremes at either end and i seriously don't think I have ever seen a more biazzre table gd wise in twenty years in the game after a third of the season.  I have always said this league is the league the bookies love and if you don't get it now you never will backig short ones.

It should be renamed the variance league because literally 80% of games in this league are just total flips and so much luck is involved in every teams posotion

[bergeroo]

If anyone has B0ylesports Isner is 9/1 to win the first set 7-6 vs Murray tomorrow. Murray kicked Isner's ass in Vienna last week. However before that they've always had tightish matches. Obviously Murray is the best player but Isner is a tiebreak machine and also has an amazing tiebreak record.

In 53 matches this season, Isner has won the first set 7-6 21 times by my count and only lost 6.

www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-paris/john-isner-v-andy-murray/set-1-score

[bergeroo]

If anyone has B0ylesports Isner is 9/1 to win the first set 7-6 vs Murray tomorrow. Murray kicked Isner's ass in Vienna last week. However before that they've always had tightish matches. Obviously Murray is the best player but Isner is a tiebreak machine and also has an amazing tiebreak record.

In 53 matches this season, Isner has won the first set 7-6 21 times by my count and only lost 6.

www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-paris/john-isner-v-andy-murray/set-1-score

[arbboy]

If anyone has B0ylesports Isner is 9/1 to win the first set 7-6 vs Murray tomorrow. Murray kicked Isner's ass in Vienna last week. However before that they've always had tightish matches. Obviously Murray is the best player but Isner is a tiebreak machine and also has an amazing tiebreak record.

In 53 matches this season, Isner has won the first set 7-6 21 times by my count and only lost 6.

www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-paris/john-isner-v-andy-murray/set-1-score

How many tie breakers has he won against the world number 1 though?  It really is an irrelevant stat that you post.  He would be a solid 6/4 shot at best to beat Murray in a breaker so you are basically taking him to get to a breaker at 3/1 against one of the greatest returners of serve in history when he is at his absolute peak of his powers.  As long as you make him a 2/1 shot to get to a breaker then you have a good bet.  Otherwise i would strongly recommend no bet on this.

In those 53 matches Isner would have been a big fav to win most of those first sets anyway (therefore a decent fav to win any breaker).  He is a big dog to win the first set tomorrow obvious ( and therefore a decent dog to win any breaker).

What surface were these matches on?  Isner is a much bigger fav to win breakers on grass than clay or any other surface.

Isner is also well past his peak just to add argument to using tiny sample sizes.

[bergeroo]

Ignore the stat above, it is totally wrong. I had too much wine.

They have played 7 times and had 5 breakers in the first set of which Isner leads 3-2

[bergeroo]

10 matches vs Djoko there have been 6 first set tiebreakers in the matches and the record is 3-3
7 matches vs peak Federer there have been 4 first set tiebreakers and the record is 2-2