Looking forward to The Dubai Carnival which starts again at Meydan on Thursday.
I have been looking at trainer stats, jockey stats and have concentrated on the past 3 carnivals to try and form some systems i am going to follow for small money.
The first system i will implement is with Goldophin runners for there number one trainer Saeed bin suroor.
Goes without saying they like winners here
But Bin Suroor follows a nice pattern in how he targets his horses for the carnival.
His horses have an excellent record "first run in the UAE" of that season, on the second run of the season the record is pretty por the third run if there is one shows a record more similar to the first run. It is worth noting that Al Zarooni had a similar record (ahem) so Appleby may follow suit however that is hearsay and i fancy the main man will want to make sure he grabs a bit more limelight this time around.
These stats suggest he has the horses 100% ready for there first runs in Dubai but possibly as a result of over training they bounce or comeback to quickly for the second run before again running well on the third start. For the purposes of this i will be backing the Bin Surror animals on first run at the carnival blind and then leaving them alone there after (there is an argument to lay them second run back as well)
Over the years the "supertrainer" pops up in Dubai usually having 1 or 2 excellent seasons with improbable winners with previously average animals before fading away never to be seen again. Trying to find out who the next "chosen" trainer is the hard bit but i think i may have found one.
AHMAD BIN HARMASH was an assistant trainer to former super trainer Mubarak Bin Shafya (a trainer who has served a drugs ban since his hot spell and comeback at a below average level) Whether or not Harmash has used some of the ahem methods of his former boss i have no idea but he has made a promising start this season.
Two winners from 19 does not sound great but he has had a further 9 places and most have been fair/big prices. Now this is risky as the competition gets a lot tougher for the carnival.
However on paper he looks to have some interesting animals and i will be backing all of his runners blind for the first 4 meetings and then reviewing the performance. N.b He also appears to have the services of Adrie De Vries an excellent Meydan jockey for the carnival which is another positive.
The third system i will be following is a very basic one. Silvestre De Souza is a very good jockey and has once again been based in the UAE for 3 months already giving him vital extra preparation time for the carnival. He has ridden at an amazing 48% strike rate in the UAE the past few months and in the last two carnivals has made very fast starts in the first half of the meeting. This could be due to riding the Bin Suroor animals, the fact he is a very good jockey, his track knowledge or just a bit of randomness. I think there is enough in it to follow again blind for the first half of the carnival.
SYSTEM 1 Back all Saeed bin suroor runners first run in the UAE at the carnival. ALL CARNIVAL.
SYSTEM 2 Back all Ahmad Bin Harmash runners at the carnival. To be reviewed after Thursday, 30th Jan meeting.
SYSTEM 3 Back all Silvestre De Souza rides. Upto and including meeting on Thursday, 13 February, 2014.
I have more confidence in the 1st and 3rd systems so will be playing them to a mythical £10 stake, System 2 will be recorded to a mythical £5 stake. The first few meets will see a lot of system 1 and system 3 clashes as sds will be riding most first run horses for saeed bin suroor.
For the purposes of this i will record them as separate bets.
QUALIFIERS FOR WEEK 1 THURSDAY 9TH JAN 2014
SYSTEM 1
3.05 DESERT LAW
3.40 CLON BRULEE + 3.40 TRANSPARENT
4.15 MY FREEDOM
4.50 DO IT ALL
5.25 SHURUQ
6.00 FREE WHEELING + COMPLICATE
SYSTEM 2
3.40 IZAAJ + BUSKER
4.50 TARBAWI
5.25 SAMURAI SWORD
6.00 IGUAZU FALLS
SYSTEM 3
3.05 DESERT LAW
3.40 TRANSAPRENT
4.15 MY FREEDOM
4.50 DO IT ALL
5.25 SHURUQ
6.00 COMPLICATE
RESULTS FOR WEEK 1
SYSTEM 1
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SYSTEM 2
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SYSTEM 3
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All returns will calculated to betfair sp with a 5% commision rate