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Author Topic: Racing Thread  (Read 1016189 times)
horseplayer
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« Reply #795 on: December 29, 2013, 04:42:20 PM »

"Dessie Hughes, trainer of Our Conor, was satisfied with last season's Triumph Hurdle winner on what was his first start over hurdles since the Cheltenham Festival in March.

He said: "I felt coming here if he got to within a few lengths (of Hurricane Fly) it would be a good run. It's his first run over hurdles in eight months and his first time against older horses. I was very happy with the run and I think he'll come on for it.""


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BigAdz
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« Reply #796 on: December 29, 2013, 05:02:28 PM »

Not seen race yet, but seen result.

Yet again I get The Fly wrong..........lump on for the Champ Hurdle........muhahaaaaaaa!!!
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« Reply #797 on: December 31, 2013, 09:11:42 PM »

Only just realised that Segal has a couple for tomorrow.

Musselburgh

14:10 - New Year's Eve



Cheltenham

14:30 - Carrickboy


Happy New Year punters!
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« Reply #798 on: January 01, 2014, 12:22:54 AM »

Many Happy Returns to all of the horses in training.

 
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« Reply #799 on: January 01, 2014, 12:02:41 PM »

King Rolfe runs today in 12.30 at Catterick.

Dropped to class 4 and upped in distance from 2 miles.

Should have a good chance today.

I'm stuck in London so can't be there to see it.
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tikay
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« Reply #800 on: January 01, 2014, 12:24:39 PM »


What is the backstory to the Davy Russell thing?


http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/#newsArchiveTabs=last7DaysNews
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« Reply #801 on: January 01, 2014, 12:39:52 PM »


Think it is more a case of snapping up Cooper before he goes elsewere

Similar to the Gosden Buick case?
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« Reply #802 on: January 01, 2014, 09:00:21 PM »

Has the mystery owner Rakebackmyhorse.com ish, the one with all the horse with Violet Jordan, jacked it in?

I see a couple of their old horses Brown Pete today, and Ammenable tomorrow have gone to Anne Stokel.

Out of the frying pan...
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« Reply #803 on: January 02, 2014, 05:51:29 PM »

he got warned off a while ago
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« Reply #804 on: January 02, 2014, 06:03:26 PM »

Did anyone hear any news of Sizing Rio since it was PU at Leopardstown?

It was going nicely well in touch with the leaders and about a mile to go when it went wrong but I've not seen any report on him since.
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« Reply #805 on: January 09, 2014, 12:07:39 AM »

Looking forward to The Dubai Carnival which starts again at Meydan on Thursday.

I have been looking at trainer stats, jockey stats and have concentrated on the past 3 carnivals to try and form some systems i am going to follow for small money.

The first system i will implement is with Goldophin runners for there number one trainer Saeed bin suroor.

Goes without saying they like winners here Smiley But Bin Suroor follows a nice pattern in how he targets his horses for the carnival.

His horses have an excellent record "first run in the UAE" of that season, on the second run of the season the record is pretty por the third run if there is one shows a record more similar to the first run. It is worth noting that Al Zarooni had a similar record (ahem) so Appleby may follow suit however that is hearsay and i fancy the main man will want to make sure he grabs a bit more limelight this time around.

These stats suggest he has the horses 100% ready for there first runs in Dubai but possibly as a result of over training they bounce or comeback to quickly for the second run before again running well on the third start. For the purposes of this i will be backing the Bin Surror animals on first run at the carnival blind and then leaving them alone there after (there is an argument to lay them second run back as well)

Over the years the "supertrainer" pops up in Dubai usually having 1 or 2 excellent seasons with improbable winners with previously average animals before fading away never to be seen again. Trying to find out who the next "chosen" trainer is the hard bit but i think i may have found one.

AHMAD BIN HARMASH was an assistant trainer to former super trainer Mubarak Bin Shafya (a trainer who has served a drugs ban since his hot spell and comeback at a below average level) Whether or not Harmash has used some of the ahem methods of his former boss i have no idea but he has made a promising start this season.

Two winners from 19 does not sound great but he has had a further 9 places and most have been fair/big prices. Now this is risky as the competition gets a lot tougher for the carnival.

However on paper he looks to have some interesting animals and i will be backing all of his runners blind for the first 4 meetings and then reviewing the performance. N.b He also appears to have the services of Adrie De Vries an excellent Meydan jockey for the carnival which is another positive.

The third system i will be following is a very basic one. Silvestre De Souza is a very good jockey and has once again been based in the UAE for 3 months already giving him vital extra preparation time for the carnival. He has ridden at an amazing 48% strike rate in the UAE the past few months and in the last two carnivals has made very fast starts in the first half of the meeting. This could be due to riding the Bin Suroor animals, the fact he is a very good jockey, his track knowledge or just a bit of randomness. I think there is enough in it to follow again blind for the first half of the carnival.


SYSTEM 1 Back all Saeed bin suroor runners first run in the UAE at the carnival. ALL CARNIVAL.

SYSTEM 2 Back all Ahmad Bin Harmash runners at the carnival. To be reviewed after Thursday, 30th Jan meeting.

SYSTEM 3 Back all Silvestre De Souza rides. Upto and including meeting on Thursday, 13 February, 2014.

I have more confidence in the 1st and 3rd systems so will be playing them to a mythical £10 stake, System 2 will be recorded to a mythical £5 stake. The first few meets will see a lot of system 1 and system 3 clashes as sds will be riding most first run horses for saeed bin suroor.

For the purposes of this i will record them as separate bets.

QUALIFIERS FOR WEEK 1 THURSDAY 9TH JAN 2014

SYSTEM 1

3.05 DESERT LAW
3.40 CLON BRULEE + 3.40 TRANSPARENT
4.15 MY FREEDOM
4.50 DO IT ALL
5.25 SHURUQ
6.00 FREE WHEELING + COMPLICATE

SYSTEM 2

3.40 IZAAJ + BUSKER
4.50 TARBAWI
5.25 SAMURAI SWORD
6.00 IGUAZU FALLS


SYSTEM 3

3.05 DESERT LAW
3.40 TRANSAPRENT
4.15 MY FREEDOM
4.50 DO IT ALL
5.25 SHURUQ
6.00 COMPLICATE

RESULTS FOR WEEK 1

SYSTEM 1

BET AMOUNT =

BET RETURNS =

PROFIT/LOSS =

SYSTEM 2

BET AMOUNT =

BET RETURNS =

PROFIT/LOSS =

SYSTEM 3

BET AMOUNT =

BET RETURNS =

PROFIT/LOSS =



All returns will calculated to betfair sp with a 5% commision rate
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tikay
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« Reply #806 on: January 09, 2014, 05:27:50 PM »


This is currently being shown Live, on Sky Sports 1.
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« Reply #807 on: January 09, 2014, 05:29:19 PM »


This is currently being shown Live, on Sky Sports 1.

and appleby is following al zarooni from last season and sds is having a rare shocker

hopefully he has saved himself for the 6pm Smiley

luckily the supertrainer has had a winner at a fair price so should mean overall at worst a small profit for today
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horseplayer
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« Reply #808 on: January 09, 2014, 07:35:09 PM »

RESULTS FOR WEEK 1

SYSTEM 1

PROFIT/LOSS = 0pts

SYSTEM 2

PROFIT/LOSS = +55pts

SYSTEM 3

PROFIT/LOSS = +10pts


a good start especially when you consider sds did not ride particularly well for whatever reason and the bin suroor horses seemed a bit flat, was a bit galling to see appleby win the first two!

The super trainer came up trumps early on with a 16-1 winner and a 14-1 second in the last



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« Reply #809 on: January 11, 2014, 09:39:39 PM »

 Saphir Du Rheu is the horse worth an ante post bet, has been quite impressive last couple of runs? NRNB on the world hurdle 10-1?
« Last Edit: January 11, 2014, 10:04:29 PM by Omm » Logged
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