Cycling Betting & Discussion.

[Slykllist]

Paris-Nice will be interesting this year, the parcours is not massively demanding so won't favour pure climbers and there isn't a single kilometre of time-trialling to be had.  when you look at the team line ups, you can't help but think a lot of them are there preparing for other things.

I think Rui Costa will be keen to put up a good showing in the rainbow jersey and have a feeling that being world champion might really elevate his performances this year.  Nibali will certainly give it a good go but the rout doesn't rally favour him massively.  As an outside bet, I'd quite fancy Tom Jelte Slagter (Ned) Garmin Sharp, to have a good ride, can't see him winning it but he has a chance of a decent finish.  At the moment Bet Victor have him at 40/1 which might be worth an E/W punt before tomorrows stage?

[cheapwetsuit]

Paris-Nice will be interesting this year, the parcours is not massively demanding so won't favour pure climbers and there isn't a single kilometre of time-trialling to be had.  when you look at the team line ups, you can't help but think a lot of them are there preparing for other things.

I think Rui Costa will be keen to put up a good showing in the rainbow jersey and have a feeling that being world champion might really elevate his performances this year.  Nibali will certainly give it a good go but the rout doesn't rally favour him massively.  As an outside bet, I'd quite fancy Tom Jelte Slagter (Ned) Garmin Sharp, to have a good ride, can't see him winning it but he has a chance of a decent finish.  At the moment Bet Victor have him at 40/1 which might be worth an E/W punt before tomorrows stage?

Hello Slykllist. Good to have you on board. The more people we have sharing their views on the cycling, the better, as there are usually way too many angles for one person to cover.

As regards the Paris-Nice, I haven't really had a lot to say, because I've had a bit of a mare so far. I backed Richie Porte to the hilt ... but he pulled out to race Tirreno-Adriatico in place of Froome. So then I backed Tejay van Garderen ... but he pulled out on day 1 feeling a little sick. Unfortunately, no NRNB rules in cycling.

The main thing to pull from all of this is that I'm not convinced by the favourites in this market. Costa isn't typically an attacking cyclist. Betancur isn't in top shape (otherwise this would be his race). Nibali is focused on the Tour de France, and P-N might have come too early for him. However, one must remember that Nibali is an awesome descender, and this (as well as his strong team) will give him a big advantage on this year's parcours. He is thus my pick of the favourites ... cue him crashing into a bus.

I have big plans for Slagter this year, and am a big fan. 40/1 is not a bad price for an attacking rider with the right tools to provide an upset. A punchy rider, I'm still not convinced by his long-hill climbing abilities, so have left him for now. Although I have gone for a similar rider in Simon Spilak @ 33/1 who has good prior in the Paris-Nice, likes the Col d'Eze (which could prove pivotal), and can stick with Nibali and Costa on the steeps. More a watching brief on P-N than a money-spinner this year. Still plenty of races to come. Enjoy watching, and I hope Slagter pulls it off for you.

[Tonji]

Welcome Sly.

Plenty of cycling this week, P-N & T-A. Not enough hours in the day.

[tikay]

Good to see Slykllist in the thread.

Smashing lad, who seems to have escaped from Next door. He'll be a credit to the thread, & blonde.

[Tonji]

The opening TTT stage at Tirreno-Adriatico looks straight forward for OPQS today, particularly with the advantage of a late start. OGE should be close. Movistar could cause the upset, with strong TT riders in Amador, Castroviejo, Dowsett, Intxausti & Malori.

[Tonji]

no views yet, but stage 4 at Paris-Nice has oportunities, no clear concensus

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/paris-nice/paris-nice-2014-stage-4/winner

[Tonji]

no views yet, but stage 4 at Paris-Nice has oportunities, no clear concensus

http://www.oddschecker.com/cycling/paris-nice/paris-nice-2014-stage-4/winner

Click to see full-size image.

the final climb before a 14km run in. Doubt any sprinters can get over with the lead group.

Looks like quick fingers on betty needed.

[Tonji]

P-N stage 4:

Some names that could well be in the frame, other than GC contenders. Rojas, Julien Simon & young GB rider Simon Yates riding for OGE.

[Slykllist]

Thanks for the welcome guys and Tikay, smashing 'lad' I'll take that as. I just turned 39 this year That said it's all relative I guess.

Be very interesting to see how Simon Yates fares today, I think Sky missed a trick not snapping him up after the ToB last year and agree he could do a ride today.  After watching yesterday's finish, if Rojas gets per the climb I don't see anyone beating him.  If he doesn't and they come to the line in a small group - Matt Harley Goss, also expect Albasini and Voekler to be on the attack and don't be surprised to see one of them win it.

[Tonji]

T-A Stage 2:

Sprint stage, with all the big boys present. Kittel, Greipel & Cavendish. Not a lot between them, probably comes down to who's sprint train is working best. I'd have em in that order I think on current form. Also won't be surprised if Sacha Modolo makes top 3.

[Tonji]

P-N Stage 5:



Degenkolb looked strong getting over the final climb today. No reason why he can't win stage 5 & go back in yellow.

Great job by Geraint Thomas to get yellow. Crucial stages look to be 6 & 7 when the real battles will take place.

[Slykllist]

Why did I not take my own advice and have a punt on Slagter at 40/1

[Slykllist]

I fancy Rojas for the stage tomorrow.

[Tonji]

Dangerous break in P-N, after 42.5km gap is 2.50 for Sylvain Chavanel, Bakelants, Buche, G Izaguirre & B Feillu

[Tonji]

Liking Kelderman & Rafal Majka for today in Paris-Nice.

Modolo looks a decent outside bet in T-A.

Right of to Italy for my brothers debut in the 24H Series at Mugello.

Back next week.