Tips for Tikay

[horseplayer]

Big fan of Belgian Bill

For me the fact he fell out of the stalls in the International is a massive negative, never done that before and possibly the sign he may have had enough

We will see

[Bad Beat]

 I heard it started raining, also Michael Attwater is walking the course and thinking of withdrawing George Guru if he thinks it's too fast.

 So annoying, meant to bet one for this on Tuesday as I was certain it would run and then you get the four places whatever. Just got too busy. I think Heaven's Guest will be another one that would not run unless the rain gets in.

 Annoying.

[BigAdz]

I can't edit my previous post.

That Belgian Bill race now has only 18 as opposed to 20 when I looked.  So there is a significant possibility that 3 injuries discovered by their trainers could shaft us by off time. As I said yesterday I thought the big first prize would stop this, but think it is better for those not on already to wait until half an hour before the race.  Hopefully Neil doesn't cause the price to fall before the race.

 
Gone 10s with Corals now too.

Like Horsey, after the last time, I would be wary at best, and draw for a hold up horse may well count against it.

[Doobs]

I can't edit my previous post.

That Belgian Bill race now has only 18 as opposed to 20 when I looked.  So there is a significant possibility that 3 injuries discovered by their trainers could shaft us by off time. As I said yesterday I thought the big first prize would stop this, but think it is better for those not on already to wait until half an hour before the race.  Hopefully Neil doesn't cause the price to fall before the race.

 
Gone 10s with Corals now too.

Like Horsey, after the last time, I would be wary at best, and draw for a hold up horse may well count against it.

Don't know, I can always forgive one bad race. 

I have never actually tested by having a horse finish 4th or 5th on 15 runners, but presumably the Coral's offer reverts to 4 and not 3 if there are 15 runners given they have said it is an enhanced place? 

Has anyone ever managed to test it or gone to IBAS?

[tikay]

DODGEPOT
Pether's Moon is 13/8 in the 1.55 tomorrow, which is close to the Betfair price.  I like the horse, but Neil wrote something unflattering when we backed it at Ascot.   It also course and distance form, and finished close to Cavalryman last time.  The race before it was thrashed by Telescope having a rare good day. 

As a sop to Betting Emporium, I have allowed them to put a subtle subliminal message in this post.  I am sure we can ignore that and just go with the maths in this case.

DODGEPOT

Moving on, I am sure we can back Shifting Power in the 2.20 at 15/8.  He has good from with Australia and Kingman, so should be good enough.

FWIW Blonde favourite Belgian Bill runs again tomorrow in the 3.05.  He has what would normally look the best draw in 1 (http://www.drawbias.com/courses/Goodwood/Goodwood8.html), but is usually held up which is going to counterbalance it.

There is a bit of 10/1 at Hills amongst others.  I have just put it on the mobile to get money back for 2nd.   I think the bigger price and the offer means this putting it on the mobile with Hills is better than taking the 9/1 with 5 places at Coral. 

Given the prize money, we should be safe to get 16 in this one, so lots of bets are going to be good in this race (here you get 5/2 on a horse that looks to be settling at 9/4).   Hence think 20 each way should be fine.

As requested via Doobs in a PM, IGNORE the Belgian Bill "16 runners" stuff, as the Vets have been kept busy this morning & there are non-runners. 

[Bad Beat]

 I just asked someone at the track and he said it's a scorcher. Non-runners galore I reckon.

[BigAdz]

Raining and a scorcher within 30 mins?


I best sit tight before I rush to oddschecker next time. Lol

[Doobs]

DODGEPOT
Pether's Moon is 13/8 in the 1.55 tomorrow, which is close to the Betfair price.  I like the horse, but Neil wrote something unflattering when we backed it at Ascot.   It also course and distance form, and finished close to Cavalryman last time.  The race before it was thrashed by Telescope having a rare good day. 

As a sop to Betting Emporium, I have allowed them to put a subtle subliminal message in this post.  I am sure we can ignore that and just go with the maths in this case.

DODGEPOT

Moving on, I am sure we can back Shifting Power in the 2.20 at 15/8.  He has good from with Australia and Kingman, so should be good enough.

FWIW Blonde favourite Belgian Bill runs again tomorrow in the 3.05.  He has what would normally look the best draw in 1 (http://www.drawbias.com/courses/Goodwood/Goodwood8.html), but is usually held up which is going to counterbalance it.

There is a bit of 10/1 at Hills amongst others.  I have just put it on the mobile to get money back for 2nd.   I think the bigger price and the offer means this putting it on the mobile with Hills is better than taking the 9/1 with 5 places at Coral. 

Given the prize money, we should be safe to get 16 in this one, so lots of bets are going to be good in this race (here you get 5/2 on a horse that looks to be settling at 9/4).   Hence think 20 each way should be fine.

As requested via Doobs in a PM, IGNORE the Belgian Bill "16 runners" stuff, as the Vets have been kept busy this morning & there are non-runners. 

I was hoping you'd edit my post, as I can't do it myself.  I can reply.  If you can't edit, no worries.  Just a note saying do not back unless 16+ runners half an hour before the race would be good.  Some people will be reading from the top down and don't see the warnings until it is too late.

[Bad Beat]

 Mystery solved. Raining man is 8 miles away in Bognor. Scorcher man is at the track.

[tikay]

DODGEPOT
Pether's Moon is 13/8 in the 1.55 tomorrow, which is close to the Betfair price.  I like the horse, but Neil wrote something unflattering when we backed it at Ascot.   It also course and distance form, and finished close to Cavalryman last time.  The race before it was thrashed by Telescope having a rare good day. 

As a sop to Betting Emporium, I have allowed them to put a subtle subliminal message in this post.  I am sure we can ignore that and just go with the maths in this case.

DODGEPOT

Moving on, I am sure we can back Shifting Power in the 2.20 at 15/8.  He has good from with Australia and Kingman, so should be good enough.

FWIW Blonde favourite Belgian Bill runs again tomorrow in the 3.05.  He has what would normally look the best draw in 1 (http://www.drawbias.com/courses/Goodwood/Goodwood8.html), but is usually held up which is going to counterbalance it.

There is a bit of 10/1 at Hills amongst others.  I have just put it on the mobile to get money back for 2nd.   I think the bigger price and the offer means this putting it on the mobile with Hills is better than taking the 9/1 with 5 places at Coral. 

Given the prize money, we should be safe to get 16 in this one, so lots of bets are going to be good in this race (here you get 5/2 on a horse that looks to be settling at 9/4).   Hence think 20 each way should be fine.

As requested via Doobs in a PM, IGNORE the Belgian Bill "16 runners" stuff, as the Vets have been kept busy this morning & there are non-runners. 

I was hoping you'd edit my post, as I can't do it myself.  I can reply.  If you can't edit, no worries.  Just a note saying do not back unless 16+ runners half an hour before the race would be good.  Some people will be reading from the top down and don't see the warnings until it is too late.

Done now, apols.

[Doobs]

I suppose at least the 18 runners gives us time to debate Belgian Bill.  Horsey is against, Adz wary.  I always forgive one bad run as a rule, when if happens again the horse gets a squiggle in my head.  It could be an interesting debate.  Where does everyone stand?  They are animals, can get spooked, may just be having a bad day etc.

I don't think I can do this right, because I probably go from complete forgiveness first time, to never trusting them again when I see them do two things I don't like.

[TightEnd]

First thought for the eneffelle season...

I'm intending to do a proper bit of work on the AFC East this weekend, with a view to proposing some bets. One that's struck me by surprise straight away is the Miami Finishing Position market that the red shouty man has.

Second: 6/4
Third: 2/1
Fourth: 4/1
First: 5/1

Now, we can obviously exclude divisional champs. The Patriots with Wilfork, Vereen and The Gronk back are a completely different prospect to 2013/14. They could win 12 games this season. Miami should be delighted with 8.

Jets and Bills have strengthened in the summer; the Dolphins haven't brought in the same level of new blood. Tannehill can't have much longer to go as the franchise QB, he has a roster devoid of experience (and, arguably, much talent) and the team doesn't have enough firepower against three strong defences twice to threaten at the top. The Jets have made some excellent signings and I can see them making the playoffs (mug comment, granted).

Miami's early schedule includes Kansas City (h), Oakland away and Green Bay at home, followed by a trip to Chicago. After eight weeks, they could very realistically be 2-5 (bye in week 5) and heaped in pressure.

It looks like a two horse race for third between Buffalo and Miami and 4/1 for it to be Buffalo pipping Miami seems crazy to me. Buffalo are 2/1 to finish third btw in the equivalent market with the same bookie.

Deep breath...

Recommend £50 on Miami to finish fourth in the AFC East at 4/1 with the red shouty man.





(Also, don't tell Flushy)

restricted, took what i could

Fourth 4/1
2014 AFC East
Singles - Miami Dolphins finishing position
1 line @ £12.50 per line
Total Stake £12.50
Potential Return £62.50
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000655

[TightEnd]

DODGEPOT
Pether's Moon is 13/8 in the 1.55 tomorrow, which is close to the Betfair price.  I like the horse, but Neil wrote something unflattering when we backed it at Ascot.   It also course and distance form, and finished close to Cavalryman last time.  The race before it was thrashed by Telescope having a rare good day. 

As a sop to Betting Emporium, I have allowed them to put a subtle subliminal message in this post.  I am sure we can ignore that and just go with the maths in this case.

DODGEPOT

Moving on, I am sure we can back Shifting Power in the 2.20 at 15/8.  He has good from with Australia and Kingman, so should be good enough.

still ok to do both of these with the WH offer?

[horseplayer]

More than happy to forgive a poor run.

its more the fact was playing up in the stalls which would be my worry

 George baker (jockey not trainer) interviewed last night and he suggested he may try and ride it a bit more aggressively out the stalls.

[BigAdz]

Mystery solved. Raining man is 8 miles away in Bognor. Scorcher man is at the track.

It does happen though.

Me and seven mates used to go every year, Limo from the Cotswolds. Beer from 9am etc.

My best mate had one particular year when it was a scorcher and as a fairly placid bloke stayed calm when a drunk lad spilt a whole pint over him after about the third race to much amusement from the rest of us. It then tipped down for ten minutes and as the only one that couldn't find a seat under the big brolly, he got soaked again. Hot weather returns, and our sticky hero drys out

Just as it was all forgotten, a scrap took place between the lads on the table next to us and they managed to fall into our table, knocking the umbrella in the direction of our hero, and it was like time stood still, as this big commercial umbrella slllllllowllllllllly fell towards him. He could see it coming but just couldn't duck out the way quick enough and dithering between moving and putting his pint down  managed to get soaked by the umbrella and his own pint as the umbrella knocked it out of his hand all over himself. Needless to say he got a bit angry, and started to chase one of the guys scraping who easily outran our 17 stone hero, to even more amusement.

Pure comedy. Yeah, I know, you had to be there, but great memories. GL today all