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Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 13505287 times)
tikay
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« Reply #83100 on: July 18, 2014, 06:04:20 PM »


We have Luke Donald to miss the cut, suggested by The Oracle.

With conditions easing, the projected cut is 2 over. Luke, after 15 holes, is currently 3 over.
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« Reply #83101 on: July 18, 2014, 06:09:44 PM »

I know we have a decent portfolio already but to my eyes one price stands out after the first round.

Leader of the US FedEx cup rankings and 3 wins under his belt Jimmy Walker is 3 off the lead, is smack bang in the "good " day 2 tee times, and at 60s on betty worth a sneaky 5 er on the win market.

More than happy to be told it should be ew and its not so good on the terms etc, but when I see he is a bigger price than Lowry/Manessero etc, seems an out of line price.

Thanks Adzy.

Not sure if Tighty is around, so I've invested a whole fiver just in case, as I can't see that price lasting. We got exactly 60 (59/1).


£5 @ 60, Betfair Exchange, Jimmy Walker

BET PLACED

We already have £10 e/w with Betfred at 80-1

Need to read the small print to see if this voids the 8 places for our book, unfortunately

The original bet is with Bet Fred, why would the 8 places be voided by a bet on Betfair exchange or have I completely missed something?
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tikay
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« Reply #83102 on: July 18, 2014, 06:16:59 PM »

I know we have a decent portfolio already but to my eyes one price stands out after the first round.

Leader of the US FedEx cup rankings and 3 wins under his belt Jimmy Walker is 3 off the lead, is smack bang in the "good " day 2 tee times, and at 60s on betty worth a sneaky 5 er on the win market.

More than happy to be told it should be ew and its not so good on the terms etc, but when I see he is a bigger price than Lowry/Manessero etc, seems an out of line price.

Thanks Adzy.

Not sure if Tighty is around, so I've invested a whole fiver just in case, as I can't see that price lasting. We got exactly 60 (59/1).


£5 @ 60, Betfair Exchange, Jimmy Walker

BET PLACED

We already have £10 e/w with Betfred at 80-1

Need to read the small print to see if this voids the 8 places for our book, unfortunately

The original bet is with Bet Fred, why would the 8 places be voided by a bet on Betfair exchange or have I completely missed something?

The first point his tightness was making was that we were already on Mr Walker.

It was the press that caused some concern, (unfounded) as that was with Betty, on the Exchange, and there was worry that any bets there may affect our other Offer bets.
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tikay
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« Reply #83103 on: July 18, 2014, 06:18:04 PM »



Hope my reply made sense to you. It barely made sense even to me.
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« Reply #83104 on: July 18, 2014, 06:25:32 PM »

Its almost irrelevant as I have managed to bok that too!
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« Reply #83105 on: July 18, 2014, 06:28:51 PM »

India have had by far the worst of the conditions here, big disadvantage losing the toss

but have bowled very well i thought

214-6 plays 290 is really a pick-em game, though of course England bat deep

Eng 2.2 draw 3.4 India 3.85 and i still think india are too big.

been mispriced since yesterday lunchtime, in my opinion

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« Reply #83106 on: July 18, 2014, 06:47:31 PM »



Hope my reply made sense to you. It barely made sense even to me.

Yeah get it now, thanks.
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tikay
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« Reply #83107 on: July 18, 2014, 06:49:03 PM »


We have Luke Donald to miss the cut, suggested by The Oracle.

With conditions easing, the projected cut is 2 over. Luke, after 15 holes, is currently 3 over.

Looks like Luke now has a 10 footer on the 18th to make the cut.......
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« Reply #83108 on: July 18, 2014, 06:50:06 PM »

Thoughts on the 8/13 with Korale Chelsea to win any major trophy this season?
Surely it beats the maths if do probability of all odds for each trophy to win either?
Can't see mourhino not winning something this year and expect him to be tryin in all 4

Working on 2/1 Premier League, 7/1 Capital One cup, 6/1 FA Cup, 11/1 Champions League, he is about 5/6 to win something.  These prices were all from Betfair, but the Cup ones needed a bit of guesswork as spreads were quite big.



Thanks
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tikay
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« Reply #83109 on: July 18, 2014, 06:51:20 PM »


We have Luke Donald to miss the cut, suggested by The Oracle.

With conditions easing, the projected cut is 2 over. Luke, after 15 holes, is currently 3 over.

Looks like Luke now has a 10 footer on the 18th to make the cut.......



....which he duly makes with aplomb.

We are delighted for him.
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« Reply #83110 on: July 18, 2014, 06:57:33 PM »

bald doing money back up to £100 (not free bet as far as i am aware) on world matchplay darts if Taylor wins. He is a 4/1 poke (20% likely to win) so there should be plenty of angle here to find some ev.  They are ducking MVG (13/8) by a mile because of the offer.  5/2 or bigger on bf.  Think we should be looking for a portfolio of bets up to £100 on this given the cashback.  I haven't looked at the draw in any detail and just suggest a couple on bf prices alone.

Michael Smith 80/1 bald is under on bf.  Recommend £5
G Anderson 12/1 is very close on bf.  Recommend £20
P Wright 25/1 similar.  Recommend £10

Happy for others to add their fancies ( as long as bald price is relatively close to the true price).  Doobs might be able to advise whether 13/8 MVG is still a bet given the refund even though he is 5/2 on bf.

Should state this starts tomorrow night 7pm and obviously applies to pre event outright bets.

http://www.oddschecker.com/darts/world-matchplay/world-matchplay-darts/winner
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« Reply #83111 on: July 18, 2014, 07:18:38 PM »

Bit of a speculative Championship one for discussion - probably needs some Wolves fan input (if we have any).

I was rummaging around the top goalscorer markets hoping to find some value and Leon Clarke of Wolves grabbed my attention.  He seems to be a first choice of Jackett at the current time, as in their 3 friendlies so far he's played the first half on 2 occasions, before the entire team was changed at the break.  He has scored 4 in 90 minutes of football, with Wolves looking full of goals against admittedly weak opposition (Cheltenham, Shamrock and Bohemians).    I expect Wolves to do pretty well in the Championship last year - history is littered with teams that have come up and done really well the next season and even gone straight up again (eg Norwich, Saints, Watford).  

Clarke started his Wolves career disappointingly in terms of goals last season, but before the move he was banging them in for Coventry.  Plenty of questions around this, but at 66-1 with B365 I think he's worth a little speculative investment.   He's 40-1 elsewhere.

Any views from the floor?

Wolves visit London Road for a friendly on Tuesday.

I don't see any reason why Dicko won't be the main man up front this season, given how he finished last season. I'd sooner back him at 66-1 than Leon for sure.

Do like Wolves this season. They've added Tommy Rowe on a free, which is a great signing.

Waiting for prices to come out on top Smoggies scorer. Fatty is gonna be their main man this season.
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« Reply #83112 on: July 18, 2014, 07:20:54 PM »


We have Luke Donald to miss the cut, suggested by The Oracle.

With conditions easing, the projected cut is 2 over. Luke, after 15 holes, is currently 3 over.

Looks like Luke now has a 10 footer on the 18th to make the cut.......



....which he duly makes with aplomb.

We are delighted for him.


Ditto Tiger........meh
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« Reply #83113 on: July 18, 2014, 07:21:50 PM »

India have had by far the worst of the conditions here, big disadvantage losing the toss

but have bowled very well i thought

214-6 plays 290 is really a pick-em game, though of course England bat deep

Eng 2.2 draw 3.4 India 3.85 and i still think india are too big.

been mispriced since yesterday lunchtime, in my opinion



been mispriced since the Sri Lanka series imo!
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« Reply #83114 on: July 18, 2014, 07:55:29 PM »

Well done and thanks to the weather boys.

About a three shot advantage to tee off early Thursday and late Friday.
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