Tips for Tikay

[SuuPRlim]

Point two is interesting because I often get the feeling that the prices bookies set on motorsport are just nonsensical at times. They tend to miss quite basic indicators of how a weekend will progress. I suppose in a sport this technical that's easily done though.

I have a personal goal to get motorsport as the most profitable topic on TFT, so far myself and Doobs (and a few others) have lifted it pretty much from the bottom of the pile up to 5th. There's still a long way to go though.

I've really enjoyed the stuff, I don't post on here much don't wanna clutter you clever people up!

Thing to remember about the bookies is, they are just people setting prices at the end of the day

[Peter-27]

Point two is interesting because I often get the feeling that the prices bookies set on motorsport are just nonsensical at times. They tend to miss quite basic indicators of how a weekend will progress. I suppose in a sport this technical that's easily done though.

I have a personal goal to get motorsport as the most profitable topic on TFT, so far myself and Doobs (and a few others) have lifted it pretty much from the bottom of the pile up to 5th. There's still a long way to go though.

I've really enjoyed the stuff, I don't post on here much don't wanna clutter you clever people up!

Thing to remember about the bookies is, they are just people setting prices at the end of the day

Of course, and I understand that, which is why I don't agree with the statement that "bookies prices are never wrong".

However, they just seem to solely base their motorsport prices on prior short-term results, which fundamentally doesn't work in this sport. It's bonkers. Not that I'm complaining.

[SuuPRlim]

Point two is interesting because I often get the feeling that the prices bookies set on motorsport are just nonsensical at times. They tend to miss quite basic indicators of how a weekend will progress. I suppose in a sport this technical that's easily done though.

I have a personal goal to get motorsport as the most profitable topic on TFT, so far myself and Doobs (and a few others) have lifted it pretty much from the bottom of the pile up to 5th. There's still a long way to go though.

I've really enjoyed the stuff, I don't post on here much don't wanna clutter you clever people up!

Thing to remember about the bookies is, they are just people setting prices at the end of the day

Of course, and I understand that, which is why I don't agree with the statement that "bookies prices are never wrong".

However, they just seem to solely base their motorsport prices on prior short-term results, which fundamentally doesn't work in this sport. It's bonkers. Not that I'm complaining.

Yeh defo, not many people on fred are going to disagree with that! My Dad always used to tell me "i'll start placing bets when I see a bookie riding a bike" alongside some more "house always wins" propaganda. As I've grown older I've realised that "always winning" which they do undoubtedly do year on year, and "not being wrong" are two wildly different propositions.

Asian lines minus the vig and high liquid betfair markets closing prices are the ones that are rarely wrong (this is where people who actually know the sports and markets money is), if you compare UK bookies prices against that metric you'll see that you're absolutely right.

In regards to motorsport, they probably just don't have the man-power to really accurately price up the market, so they make some rough prices using a few different pieces of data and stick a 10+% over-round on it and they'll almost certainly get enough loose action to profit on the market, sure they let a shrewdie like yourself in with a big edge (if they dont find a way to restrict you) but it's probably not worth allocating resources away from other more competitive markets to shore things up.

My friend from school was a trader at a leading UK bookie, he told us recently about when the curling WC's were on, in the staff room "who wants curling?" he stuck his hand, read wikipedia for 20 minutes and off he went! Like I say it's still just people behind all the fanfare !

GL with the motorsport stuff, really enjoyed reading it, defo trust your instincts over the bookies!!!!!!!

[arbboy]

Point two is interesting because I often get the feeling that the prices bookies set on motorsport are just nonsensical at times. They tend to miss quite basic indicators of how a weekend will progress. I suppose in a sport this technical that's easily done though.

I have a personal goal to get motorsport as the most profitable topic on TFT, so far myself and Doobs (and a few others) have lifted it pretty much from the bottom of the pile up to 5th. There's still a long way to go though.

I've really enjoyed the stuff, I don't post on here much don't wanna clutter you clever people up!

Thing to remember about the bookies is, they are just people setting prices at the end of the day

Of course, and I understand that, which is why I don't agree with the statement that "bookies prices are never wrong".

However, they just seem to solely base their motorsport prices on prior short-term results, which fundamentally doesn't work in this sport. It's bonkers. Not that I'm complaining.

Yeh defo, not many people on fred are going to disagree with that! My Dad always used to tell me "i'll start placing bets when I see a bookie riding a bike" alongside some more "house always wins" propaganda. As I've grown older I've realised that "always winning" which they do undoubtedly do year on year, and "not being wrong" are two wildly different propositions.

Asian lines minus the vig and high liquid betfair markets closing prices are the ones that are rarely wrong (this is where people who actually know the sports and markets money is), if you compare UK bookies prices against that metric you'll see that you're absolutely right.

In regards to motorsport, they probably just don't have the man-power to really accurately price up the market, so they make some rough prices using a few different pieces of data and stick a 10+% over-round on it and they'll almost certainly get enough loose action to profit on the market, sure they let a shrewdie like yourself in with a big edge (if they dont find a way to restrict you) but it's probably not worth allocating resources away from other more competitive markets to shore things up.

My friend from school was a trader at a leading UK bookie, he told us recently about when the curling WC's were on, in the staff room "who wants curling?" he stuck his hand, read wikipedia for 20 minutes and off he went! Like I say it's still just people behind all the fanfare !

GL with the motorsport stuff, really enjoyed reading it, defo trust your instincts over the bookies!!!!!!!

This happened at 365 in 2002 when we decided to do 9 ball pool in running for the first time.  The problem was the guy who decided to have a pop at it didn't have a clue how important potting a ball off the break was!!!!   Comical looking back.  #glory days.  Frightening what we lost that night.  The same guy decided to price up a WWE PPW a few months later and didn't last another week after that!

It really is you v them in mickey mouse markets.  The only problem is you can't get on.

[TightEnd]

Jonathan Joseph's scintillating hat trick took him joint top of the england try scorers in the 2017 6n today. One game to go, dublin next saturday

[SuuPRlim]

yeh i mean would you rather pay some expert decent money to run the shrewdest tightest lines @ these markets, or get someone who already works there to google the sport, put up a 115% book and don't let anyone bet more than £100

[TightEnd]

Fleetwood lost 4-2 at home to Bolton, now a point clear of third. Due a reverse, first loss for 19 games. In thrilling news I have a tour of their £9m training ground in the morning.

[arbboy]

Fleetwood lost 4-2 at home to Bolton, now a point clear of third. Due a reverse, first loss for 19 games. In thrilling news I have a tour of their £9m training ground in the morning.

When is Vardy going to Arsenal for £35m? 

[SuuPRlim]

Fleetwood lost 4-2 at home to Bolton, now a point clear of third. Due a reverse, first loss for 19 games. In thrilling news I have a tour of their £9m training ground in the morning.

When is Vardy going to Arsenal for £35m? 

Why would they need to sign Vardy? I was right next to the Emirates 2 days ago and they had a perfectly good lake to throw the money into.

[doubleup]

Ian Poulter needs to win just shy of $600K in his next five starts on the USPGA tour to retain his card.

What price is he to complete this task positively?

He was 33-1 for a top five in the Valspar, so given that he needs a couple of them in the five starts, it doesn't look likely.

Agreed it's unlikely although he is actually playing and putting quite well - was thinking >10/1.

I heard tonight that its only $200k or so.  So one top ten could do it.  So much less than 10/1 even though he had a bad one today.

 

[JohnCharver]

Blaklion wont run in the GC.

[Karabiner]

Blaklion wont run in the GC.

I was wondering what that £20 refund in my account was for, assumed it was possibly for being a jolly good sport.

[Peter-27]

My friend from school was a trader at a leading UK bookie, he told us recently about when the curling WC's were on, in the staff room "who wants curling?" he stuck his hand, read wikipedia for 20 minutes and off he went! Like I say it's still just people behind all the fanfare !

Absolutely amazed by this .. 

[Killerkilsby]

Kane went off injured today.

Hearing rumours it could be a repeat of the injury that kept him out of 5 PL fixtures earlier in the season.

Only 11 games left of the season, not guarenteed to come back in the amazing form he is currently in. Bookmakers dont seem to have fully reflected this, he is still odds on in some places but generally evens across the board for top G/S.

Other contenders are:

Kane (19)
Lukaku (18) - In good form plays every game, doesnt take penalties otherwise would be leading this race already.
Sanchez (17) - speculation over future, hasnt been starting every game lately. Interesting to see the rest of the years performances but not out and out striker.
Costa (17) - having a solid year, doesnt seem to score in multiples but is consistently scoring single goals in games
Zlatan (15) - out for 2 more games could be a factor if form continued.
Defoe (14) - team not good enough for him to win this
Alli (13) - Midfield role will hinder
Aguero (12) - seems like Jesus injury will give him an extended run in the side and can easily score 2-3 a game at times.


Based on the above, and slightly speculating over Kanes injury I'd like to propose £25 Lukaku at 7/2 across the board on OC. And £10 Aguero at 16/1 with bet365 or BV.

Appreciate any thoughts.

[Jamier-Host]

I see lots of colour on Oddschecker - the market has certainly (over?)reacted already.