Tips for Tikay

[exstream]

Hills go 6/1 for every player to hit over 1 180 tonight
First week missed out because taylor got 1
Second week missed out As taylor got 0 and Lewis got 1
Still seems decent

It's 7/1 tonight

[Doobs]

fastest time of winter testing so far, this morning (usual caveats apply)

Click to see full-size image.

Betfair 4.1/4.6 Vettel.  Several sleepy bookies still 6/1 and 13/2.

[doubleup]

Bet victor is fair enough.  Having the stipulation of rebounding into play avoids all sorts of grey areas where the ball skims the post/crossbar.

I disagree. If the bet states 'hit the woodwork' and the ball hits the woodwork, it should be a winner regardless of where it goes. No grey area as far as I can see - if the ball skims the post it has hit the woodwork.

Their terms are contradictory as they state that if the ball hits the woodwork and goes out of play it won't count, yet if it goes in the goal it will - even if your 'grey area' is a problem surely that problem would then exist if it is a goal?

Victor have released a statement saying they will update their terms to be more clear and that in future it is confirmed that any shot that hits any part of the woodwork will count.

I reckon they will be in a dispute before long with ultra slow motion involved and calls for a snickometer plus hotspot.  The old sporting index rules were fine.  Bounce back into play it counts. Bounce out doesn't count.  In off post doesn't count.  Clear and everyone knew where you stood.

How are those rules clear?  If you have a bet on the ball hitting the wood work why does it matter where the ball ends up afterwards?  One of the most insane rules ever.  You have bet on the ball touching the post and/or bar not whether it stays in play afterwards in a double.

On a night when the industry leader is reporting 8 figures losses on the Barca game good old victor's PR team is worrying about a mickey mouse bet on hitting the post.  Kind of shows how far VC have fallen in the bigger picture.

Well it is clear.  Whether you agree is another matter.  It was for football performance 10 points for hitting the woodwork.  Hit post and then bounce into keeper arms 10 points.  His bar and go over no cigar.  Hit inside of both posts and striker bundles it in then 35 point banzai.  They don't do it anymore because they can now just work out performances based on match stats.  Before they had to keep an eye open for postage action.

Huh?  Aren't these spread betting rules?  What has this to do with a fixed odds  bet a punter has proposed? 

There is a difference from the rule being clear (it wasn't) and the event being clear.  Obviously if you have a rule "woodwork" = "woodwork and back in play", the event will clearly have happened when it occurs.

[Doobs]

fastest time of winter testing so far, this morning (usual caveats apply)

Click to see full-size image.

Betfair 4.1/4.6 Vettel.  Several sleepy bookies still 6/1 and 13/2.

Wrll that didn't last.  Now 5.2/6.6.   There was 1500 lined up on the back side too. 

[exstream]

PL darts draws not the best bunch of games tonight.  Probably worth a miss tonight.

What's the requirements?
Thought 4.9 on Lewis taylor draw was ok

[Karabiner]

Punterers gonna punt on the draws innit.

I'm a yankee doodle dandy.

[McGlashan]

PL darts draws not the best bunch of games tonight.  Probably worth a miss tonight.

What's the requirements?
Thought 4.9 on Lewis taylor draw was ok

Lewis seems to perform better on days he's bothered to shave. Couple of weeks back he even got a draw with MVG after having a haircut and a shave.

[Karabiner]

Ian Poulter needs to win just shy of $600K in his next five starts on the USPGA tour to retain his card.

What price is he to complete this task positively?

[Peter-27]

Before anyone else says it, yes Williams did impress at Barcelona today, but no we shouldn't be betting on them for the title.

We'll only really begin to see what teams can actually do on the final two days of testing when aero parts begin to hit the cars.

Plus, with how tightly packaged the Mercedes is at the rear, they should have this season in the bag already, assuming they can stay reliable.

If you bet this morning, you got 50/1 Massa to finish top 3.  Mercedes will likely be best, they should be reliable, but we don't bet on who is the most likely winner.  We bet on the things that are most value, and that just feels to be more likely to be value than not.  Even if he only has the 4th best car, people get injured, cars get disqualified etc.  Sure in most scenarios he gets left behind in the Championship and doesn't trouble the podium in 90% of races, but sometimes odd things happen.   

We remember nobody was saying Brawn have this years championshp tied up in January 2009, or "that was a great move Lewis" when he moved to Mercedes or that they'll all be driving turbos in a few years as Renault retired their way through the turn of the eighties.  If you do learn anything from this post, remember that the tails are the hardest part to model right in any statistical distribution.  Nobody is likely to be far out on Lewis's chance to win the championship, everybody could be miles off with Massa.

So when we bet Vettel at 14/1 to win the championship and just less than 3/1 to finish in the top 3, we don't do it thinking he is the most likely winner.  We do it thinking these odds are wrong, we did it because he looked to have more chance than 7% to win the championship and nobody is going to give us 3/1 top 3 any time soon.   And I don't know, but I wish I could have got a meaningful sum on Massa at 250/1 and a fifth first 3.   

The most likely scenario is still Mercedes is the best car on the grid in Australia, but we don't know the probability that will happen, and we are all just making educated guesses on what we see and what we have learned over the years.   Right now we are siitting pretty with Vettel and Bottas at much better prices than we can get now, in a couple of months we could be ripping up our tickets.       

I wouldn't even dream of arguing with your assessment of how to place bets and hunting for value - as I know that to be true also. Where I disagree is what price constitutes value, and what you're basing your assessments on .. I'll expand on my last post below.

Alonso has come out fighting to the Spanish media. "The team are all ready to win except Honda,"

Alonso says the McLaren is losing 30km/h on the straight. ""There is no reliability and there is no power."

Fernando Alonso insists only Honda engine is preventing McLaren from being potential winners in 2017 http://skysports.tv/z9ZqnZ 

but another duff engine another terrible year ahead?.



i had a quick look but couldn't see any fixed odds ways,but any way on the spreads (or value left) in going no points etc?

I'm constantly checking the markets as pre-season bets are where I tend to make most of my money, seems like the market is still forming however.

Will of course post the minute I see anything worth betting on.

fastest time of winter testing so far, this morning (usual caveats apply)

Click to see full-size image.

Betfair 4.1/4.6 Vettel.  Several sleepy bookies still 6/1 and 13/2.

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

[Doobs]

Before anyone else says it, yes Williams did impress at Barcelona today, but no we shouldn't be betting on them for the title.

We'll only really begin to see what teams can actually do on the final two days of testing when aero parts begin to hit the cars.

Plus, with how tightly packaged the Mercedes is at the rear, they should have this season in the bag already, assuming they can stay reliable.

If you bet this morning, you got 50/1 Massa to finish top 3.  Mercedes will likely be best, they should be reliable, but we don't bet on who is the most likely winner.  We bet on the things that are most value, and that just feels to be more likely to be value than not.  Even if he only has the 4th best car, people get injured, cars get disqualified etc.  Sure in most scenarios he gets left behind in the Championship and doesn't trouble the podium in 90% of races, but sometimes odd things happen.   

We remember nobody was saying Brawn have this years championshp tied up in January 2009, or "that was a great move Lewis" when he moved to Mercedes or that they'll all be driving turbos in a few years as Renault retired their way through the turn of the eighties.  If you do learn anything from this post, remember that the tails are the hardest part to model right in any statistical distribution.  Nobody is likely to be far out on Lewis's chance to win the championship, everybody could be miles off with Massa.

So when we bet Vettel at 14/1 to win the championship and just less than 3/1 to finish in the top 3, we don't do it thinking he is the most likely winner.  We do it thinking these odds are wrong, we did it because he looked to have more chance than 7% to win the championship and nobody is going to give us 3/1 top 3 any time soon.   And I don't know, but I wish I could have got a meaningful sum on Massa at 250/1 and a fifth first 3.   

The most likely scenario is still Mercedes is the best car on the grid in Australia, but we don't know the probability that will happen, and we are all just making educated guesses on what we see and what we have learned over the years.   Right now we are siitting pretty with Vettel and Bottas at much better prices than we can get now, in a couple of months we could be ripping up our tickets.       

I wouldn't even dream of arguing with your assessment of how to place bets and hunting for value - as I know that to be true also. Where I disagree is what price constitutes value, and what you're basing your assessments on .. I'll expand on my last post below.

Alonso has come out fighting to the Spanish media. "The team are all ready to win except Honda,"

Alonso says the McLaren is losing 30km/h on the straight. ""There is no reliability and there is no power."

Fernando Alonso insists only Honda engine is preventing McLaren from being potential winners in 2017 http://skysports.tv/z9ZqnZ 

but another duff engine another terrible year ahead?.



i had a quick look but couldn't see any fixed odds ways,but any way on the spreads (or value left) in going no points etc?

I'm constantly checking the markets as pre-season bets are where I tend to make most of my money, seems like the market is still forming however.

Will of course post the minute I see anything worth betting on.

fastest time of winter testing so far, this morning (usual caveats apply)

Click to see full-size image.

Betfair 4.1/4.6 Vettel.  Several sleepy bookies still 6/1 and 13/2.

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

You have responded to a post where I pointed out you could lay at 4.6 (for £1500) and back at 6/1 or 13/2 with multiple bookies (About half were these prices), and can't see any value.

If you can back at 13/2 and lay at 4.6 then it doesn't matter if somebody snatches away Vettel's Ferrari and he has to finish the season in a McLaren filled with a truckload of sandbagging.

On to Cheltenham.

[TightEnd]

"I think Ferrari are bluffing - they are a lot quicker than they are showing," Lewis Hamilton  http://f1.mb4.me/TwQb0s3u 

[DMorgan]

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

Really interesting info, thanks for posting

[tikay]

Personally I would say 6/1 is about right on Vettel. Every year pre-season testing comes along and everybody plays down its importance, stating that there are too many variables and too much sandbagging for it to be relevant. However, this season, times are more irrelevant than ever .. I've never really seen anything like this before to be honest.

This is the first time we've seen a major aero regulation change with heavy limits on track time, CFD teraflops and wind tunnel time. When an aero change comes along, the absolute key is understanding baseline performance - this means building up knowledge of how airflow is behaving around the car with minimal aero additions. Once you understand the baseline, you can then add devices, winglets and flaps to the car, without track testing, and still have a reasonable confidence in their impact on the entire car. The problem is that it takes a long time to understand the baseline package, and the teams spent a good five/six days analysing this baseline which makes those lap times utterly redundant. Now we're clearly in the stage where more aero parts are hitting the cars, and lap times are tumbling. However, tomorrow is the final day of testing, and teams are just running out of time. No-one is anywhere near their ultimate pace yet even now - the way this is going, I think even after the Australian GP has finished we won't really know the pecking order; the teams just don't have enough time to do everything they need to.

To give you an example of just how little those lap times mean, Vettel set the fastest lap we've seen today, a 1:19.024. If you look at that lap, he backed off considerably on the start/finish straight, losing a heap of time (people are estimating around half a second). Also, there is a news story in the paddock at the moment that Mercedes are feeling like they could comfortably get into the 1:17's. The reality of the situation is that we just don't know which team sits where by looking at the lap times. That's why, in my opinion, Williams is a bad bet. Why not Haas or Toro Rosso? If your conclusion is solely based on lap time (which I suspect it is, although happy to be proved wrong) they have an equally good chance.

Where you can pick up an idea of who is quick though is by watching the footage from testing. The idea, which has served me extremely well in the past, is not to look at who's going fast, but to look at the driveability and tendencies of the cars. Who's smooth? Who's balance is poor? Who's wrestling the car? Who's using the full width of the track? Which cars look sluggish etc. etc. These are the things that give us the insights into the pecking order.

Over the seven days of testing so far, I've done well over 30 hours of analysis and am starting to build up a picture of the situation. Tomorrow is absolutely critical as teams continue to bring parts to their cars, so it should be an interesting day. I'm hoping to have some bet suggestions as soon as the market forms properly, but as things stand, I can't see any value spots out there really. That being said, tomorrow could change everything - let's see

Really interesting info, thanks for posting

Talking of which, McLaren are having another awful day - TWO car failures out on track already this morning.

The mockers & dissers are having a field day - or week - with McLaren, but it's all pretty sad imo. And for Honda, pretty bad. It's hard to imagine how they have managed to get in such a mess.

I genuinely hope things come together soon. Won't be Australia, but within a few races. Big ask though. F1 needs a competitive McLaren, it really does.

[doubleup]

Ian Poulter needs to win just shy of $600K in his next five starts on the USPGA tour to retain his card.

What price is he to complete this task positively?

He was 33-1 for a top five in the Valspar, so given that he needs a couple of them in the five starts, it doesn't look likely.

[Karabiner]

Ian Poulter needs to win just shy of $600K in his next five starts on the USPGA tour to retain his card.

What price is he to complete this task positively?

He was 33-1 for a top five in the Valspar, so given that he needs a couple of them in the five starts, it doesn't look likely.

Agreed it's unlikely although he is actually playing and putting quite well - was thinking >10/1.