blonde poker forum

Ok so im like really bored right now, am not in the mood for poker much today so feel like gambling some, but that's still dull.

Thus i'm going to try and give my crazy, dull and rather contradictory life a small challenge in the form of dirty ew horses.

Bookies don't like to take bets on these and i think that says it all.

I'll aim at turning a 40 points starting bank into 200 points and then just stop.

Yeah i know camel started a thread about this ages ago, i just feel it's been left alone too long, and i don't wanna hijack that whole thread, so i'll start my own.

What this will do is give my bets some balance, discipline and hopefully some steady easy profit.

Thus i'll post in this thread mostly a horse or two a day and how many points i'll risk on it, i may even do ew doubles, trebles or accas.

Once the banks gone it's gone, but it won't i'll just probably get all my accounts closed, but who cares.

So im gonna start off with a betting balance of 40 points, i'm not gonna say what my bets are in pounds but i can confirm that one point is more than a quid and less than a bullseye.

These horses carry a serious warning, if you do them everyday the bookies will eventually close your accounts, especially if u go over 25ew and abuse the dbles and trebles. Thus i'll always spread my bets around the fish tank and although often some are always best price i'll sometimes sacrifice a point to keep an account in the longterm. Most books go best price guarantee now anyways.

This will prob fail massive but it's worth a go just for my own records, i do this everyday but norm a bit scattergun and that's never good.

First horse coming up very soon, just one i like today so far but it looks juicy.

 ;goodluck;

keen on any e/w doubles ;)

gl dom

Ok first horse:

1PT EW 430 Kelso- Balnagore@3/1 BPG

Clear 2nd fav in 9 runner novice hurdle, strong on betfair and looks the part. Was very tempted to go 2pts ew but i'll  stick with caution to start with.

Good Luck  Nico

Contacts say Waldvogel has been working exceptionally well, bringing it to the track is another thing.

gl

I don't really do horses Nico, but a couple of quick ones.

Can you not work a ratio that works out using 'back winner', 'back to place' markets on betfair?

Or is that like pulling teeth because of the low volume of money traded/offered on smaller races?

gl.

Just had a few e/w on calculating good 16.55 16s with skybet

Interesting question. I've tried it before but usually find you lose so much value from the place part of the bet which is the whole point. Also i'd have to agree with 'pulling teeth' comment you made. Often you'll find yourself having to take a very poor place part of the bet early on for fear of the price dropping even further, much safer imo just going with the books and getting best price guarantee and a lovely place part of the bet. If you wanted to of course you could always put on a larger bet and attempt to lay off some of the win part on betfair, but that's difficult as the win part is normally much larger to lay and the bigger the bet the more your account will get limited by those said books and then you won't be able to get on. Quite a long and dull answer im afraid mate! :)

Nice spot! A bit arby, 14-1 on betfair but nice race make up and the strength of betfair is normally a good sign. Ive had a small dabble as it would be rude not too.

Hope you don't mind me following you with this one.

2nd bet copied from mr typhoon:

0.5 PT EW 455 Goodwood- Calculating@16-1

Only problem is skybet don't seem to be best price guarantee, rarely ever bet with them due to this and because they limit so much, still i think 16s is the max this horse will go off at anyway.

Grrr... went down to Coral to back Balnagore, was 5/2 so I left it.

Good start though!

Not a bad strat that mate, being disciplined on prices is always good.

Personally i'd have just about have been happy to get on at 5/2 but certainly not much lower. The place part of the bet was about 1.4 on betfair meaning anything above 2-1 gave some value for the place part. Thus 5/2 gave 1.5 on the place, but like i said discipline is a good thing when looking at prices.

As for the race it was a bit of a battle and i still am surprised it won.

Anyway after the 1st bet the balance stands at 43.6 pts.

Great call sir, well done.

Nice tip typhoon, though we had it there 4 a sec or two, but in the end i was glad it grabbed the place for a reasonable profit of 1.1pts.

So after 2 bets the balance moves on to a healthy 44.7pts.

First two results were:

1PT EW WON@3-1= 5.6 PTS RETURNED. (43.6pts)

0.5PT EW 3RD@16-1= 2.1 PTS RETURNED. (44.7pts)

Balance now stands at 44.7 pts.

                       

Ok off out now to do what i'm actually supposed to do for a living which is to play poker.

Before i go i'll do 1 more bet today, bit angry in a way as it's turned quite dirty having not massively looked so earlier, what i mean is this would have been done at a slightly bigger price and in an each way double with the first winner.

Still no point aftertiming in this game so here is bet number 3:

1PT EW 630 Sed- Baron Watlass@4-1.

Place part is very strong on betfair, it's a clear 2nd fav and it's another novice hurdle. Yes it's a bit exposed but bar the fav the rest look likely to struggle.

Balance standing at 44.7 pts before deductions/add ons from this race.

Nice start sir.
There's no value in doing these place only on Betfair as the place only price for this type is always way shorter than the 1/5 the odds (theoretically) available with the fixed odds boys.
For example, Baron Watlass was paying 4/5 a place there in a conventional each-way bet but the place only SP on Betty was 1.38, which is just shorter than 2/5.

Sigh was gonna get on for £10EW on Baron Watlass!

Nice start keep up the good work ;)

Nicely put chompo, wow any1 would think you actually wrote for a living. :)

Ok so second horse won as expected due to my lack of an ew double, (always a rub), anyway nice start on day 1 with 2/3 winners and the other placing at a big price, even if i did jump on that tip.

3rd Result was:

1PT EW WON@4-1=6.8 PTS RETURNED (49.5pts)

Balance now stands at 49.5pts from starting bank of 40.

Now for another horse or two, haven't looked yet as just woke up. Actually won a small comp last night too, a nice day all round.

Wow there are so many almost dirty ew horses today, some may turn filthy later and some may not.

There are also like 2-3 that are def bets, it's possibly a crazy day for ew dbles, trebles and things, but tbh i'm gonna try and be very selective as this could get a little ugly if it goes wrong, so i'll probably be just mixing up those 3.

The evening meeting where most of the bad ew horses are running in is a long way to...

Anyway there probably won't be a selection until the evening racing although i'll try and post them asap.

EDIT! Just seen something turn a bit dirty in the 315 southwell upcoming, it's just a small bet though.

0.5PTS EW 315 southwell-Magic haze@11-2

Sorry for orig saying haydock there, its def running at southwell!

Ok so that finished 3rd in rather a damb squib of a race.

Result:

0.5PTS EW 3RD@11-2=1.05PTS RETURNED (49.55pts)

Balance 49.55pts.

Moving onto bigger and better things...best go get those later horses sorted.

Again deviating from my plan of just laying into the really bad ew horses later, i've been unable to resist playing in the 505 haydock.

This is a bookies nightmare for each way bets. The big odds on fav looks a cert but that opens up so many value ew bets on the others. Most of them look much of a muchness but i'll let the betfair market guide me and also try and snag the best price available if possible.

Having said this the best guide is probbaly to watch the market a few minutes before the race when the real ew challenger will no doubt appear in the market, but it's a small play race for me so i'll get my bets done now:

Always assume i've done best price guarantee unless said not.

505 Haydock- 0.5PTS EW OCEAN CLUB@16-1
                      0.5PTS EW BLAZING DESERT@25-1.

Like i said the fav should win, but it can still slip up, especially in a maiden and we are getting almost twice the real place odds on these nags.

Win win win please, now back to those later ones...

Ok done all my bets and boy have i gone for the farm tonight, may be homeless by tmrw.

Few races where 2nd and 3rd fav are clear of the field in the market has meant i've actualy done both, something i'm never keen on as you back against yourself, but again it's all about the place value.

Ok here come the bets:

600 Sailsbury- 1PT EW SLEEPING WOLF@11-4
                       1PT EW REMOTELINIX@11-2

610 Tipperary- 1PT EW MUTAMELAQ@4-1
                        1PT EW JEMBATT@7-1

640 Tipperary- 2PTEW QUEEN OF SPAIN@3-1*

750 Tipperary- 2PTS EW SUTHERLAND STAR@2-1*

800 Sandown- 2PTS EW WEATHERVANE@3-1*

850 Tipperary- 1PT EW SEVEN SUMMITS@3-1
                        0.5PTS EW PRAYER BOAT@6-1

*=Also done in 1PT EW TRIXIE=8PTS( 3 EW DOUBLES+1EW TREBLE)

Wow this seems like too much hard work! Anyway most days there will be just 1/2 selections sometimes even none. Today is just a freaky day.

Total laid out on these bets is 31 points. Added to the 2 riding on the 505, im laying out 33 points of my bank right now.

To make calaculations easier on returns i'll deduct this from my current bank leaving 16.55pts available right now after these selections.

Time to winnnnnn big. Could get very ugly or quite pretty! :)

EDIT: Just done a ew acca on the above 8 selections too, basically a much smaller bet but it's 16bets so overall im laying out another 1pt, so that's now 15.55 left in the bank.

Ok so one placed at best priced guaranteed of 33-1 and the other didn't in the 505, thus:

0.5PTS EW 3RD@33-1=3.8 POINTS RETURNED (19.35)
0.5PTS EW UNPLACED=0 POINTS RETURNED  (19.35)

Thus balance before the 8 that may make or break this challenge tonight= 19.35 points.

Nice one Nico - I was on Blazing 33/1 2.50 e/w (balllaaaa) £19 returned cheers mate!

Ok so a very average set of results, neither a nightmare nor a coupon buster.

Results:

600 Sailsbury- 1PT EW SLEEPING WOLF@11-4 - UNPLACED (19.35)
                       1PT EW REMOTELINIX@11-2- 2ND-2.1PTS RETURNED (21.45)

610 Tipperary- 1PT EW MUTAMELAQ@4-1- 2ND-1.8 PTS RETURNED (23.25)
                        1PT EW JEMBATT@7-1-1ST-10.4PTS RETURNED (33.65)

640 Tipperary- 2PTS EW QUEEN OF SPAIN@3-1*-2ND@11-2 BPG-4.2PTS RETURNED (37.85)

750 Tipperary- 2PTS EW SUTHERLAND STAR@2-1*-UNPLACED (37.85)

800 Sandown- 2PTS EW WEATHERVANE@3-1*-UNPLACED (37.85)

850 Tipperary- 1PT EW SEVEN SUMMITS@3-1-2ND@4-1 BPG-1.8 PTS RETURNED (39.65)
                        0.5PTS EW PRAYER BOAT@6-1-3RD@13-2 BPG-1.15 PTS RETURNED (40.80)

*=Also done in 1PT EW TRIXIE=8PTS( 3 EW DOUBLES+1EW TREBLE)-LOST (40.80)

Overall a bad day despite a 7-1 winner, probably the odd 2 pt selection that should have been a 1pt max, and the trixie was obviously costly.

Still up overall if only by a bowl.

Balance 40.80 PTS.

Keep em coming

Pretty sure you need to be a lot more selective than this.

Betting 4 races out of 7 at some shitty Irish meeting with multiple horses in some races is a pretty quick way to bustoville, bad EW or not.

Nah i disagree.

Yesterday was a complete freak of a day. I gen cannot remember there being so many in a day.

It's all about the place value, whether there are 20 or 0. However, in terms of points per bet i def need to be more selective. Upon reflection at least 2 of the 3 advised 2 points each way bets should have been 1 point ew selections. I think i got a little carried away with the sheer amount of selections. Also in terms of multiples they are by far the most swingy bet, in both terms of profit and losses, so maybe i'll cut down the stakes there so as to save on short term variance.

I get what you say over it being some 'shitty irish meeting' but tbh it doesn't matter if it's royal ascot or market rasen, bar potentially improved place terms. It might look scattergun (as i have been guilty of in the past), because i'm choosing lesser known horses in small races, but it's not, it's all done on whether the place part of the bet is value, just like in poker, getting the +ev can never be a bad thing. You can't pass up spots like these because it's 4/7 races.

Anyway better choose some more selections, hope there isn't 10 odd again...:)

EDIT- I see you also mentioned how I have put 'multiple' horses in some races, i had 2 max, and would never go higher bar a race that literally had to be the baddest ew race ever.

You do bring up a good point though, it bothers me when i back 2 in a race as essentially im throwing away 1 of the win parts of the bets.

I never am quite sure if backing 2 is worth the place part of the bet enough, and in terms of 2 per race i'm def going to try and only do so when they really do both demand selection. What i tried doing in such cases before with 2 strong ew selections, was just to lay the fav at skinny odds on betfair. This didn't seem to work massively well though, and i think i was leveling myself by changing the whole point of such an exercise. It's all about the place bet.

Wow this is funny, only found 1 selection today and not running till this evening, i'll post it in a sec.

There are highly unlikely to be anymore selections today, most races just aren't bad each ways. At least that backs up my claim that yesterday was just a freak day. There is 1 race that might give another selection, but i doubt it.

Probably my only bet today:

720 TOWCESTER- 1PT EW BUSHWACKER@2-1

I'd love to make this a 2 point ew bet as bar the fav it's miles clear of the rest of the field in the betting, the fact that it's a 7 runner race stops me from doing this.

As it's just the first two getting paid ew the place part suffers a little.

Yet it's still value as we are getting 1.5+ on the horse finishing in the first two when it's true odds would be nearer 1.25 imo.

I do like this type of horse/race, it's got a genuine chance of winning what appears a clear 2 runner race and i'd always rather be on this each way than the heavy odds on favourite, just ask the bookies which one they prefer to lay.

LOL.

Just browsing races just about to start and found another:

230 YARMOUTH- 1PT EW DINNER DATE@4-1

Looks like the make up for this race will be perfect for it.

Must stop browsing.

Maybe in terms of being more selective if a horse/race does not intially appear to be right and thus a dirty ew bet, it's just not ideal, even if it turns such.

Tbh im probably just being results based after that atrocious run there.

Anyway that was unplaced and lost 2 points.

Balance now 36.8 Points.

 (1 PT EW running later already deducted from balance)

The other race i wasn't sure about has just proved too tempting. However, i feel i have to put in two selections as both are clear of the rags and both are strong for the place on betfair.

Another reason i almost left this race out is that it's another only 2 to place event. 6 runners make up the field but i really feel that although the fav should def win, only 3 actually can.

My selections are:

650 TOWCESTER- 1 PT EW LYGON LEGEND@8-1

                            1PT EW SAINT ESPIEGLE@10-1

Balance now 32.8 points.

Other bet i did/already mentioned earlier was:

720 TOWCESTER- 1PT EW BUSHWACKER@2-1

Lets win some mad ones please. :)

Ok so here are the results of those two races:

650 TOWCESTER- 1PT EW-UNPLACED (32.8 )
                          1PT EW 2ND@10-1=3.5 POINTS RETURNED (36.3)

720 TOWCESTER- 1PT EW-WON@2-1=4.5 POINTS RETURNED (40.8 )

Balance same as at start of day=40.8 Points.

Def need to look at my staking plan, it's possibly results orientated but i'm backing impulsively horses at 1 point each way, the same as i am as the one horse i thought was the best bet of the day, something wrong there.

Anyway weekends are normally when i do the least of my betting on ew horses, but i will try and see early on if there's anything worth backing.

Then i'll be off out to watch football, drink some beers and play some poker, a very dangerous combination, certainly for my poker game anyway! :)

Just the one selection today. There are 2/3 races in addition where later on a horse may have become selectable, however i'll be out all day so will just stick with this one.

740 NEWBURY-2PTS EW POPPY SEED@13/8

A skinny priced selection, yet itself and the fav are miles clear of the field in the betting. The win and more importantly the place are strong on betfair. The one thing that wouldn't be great is if 1 horse gets withdrawn as it would be first 2 rather than 3, but it would improve the place terms to 1/4 from 1/5th the odds, always look for the positives imo.

Gl all today.

Balance now 36.8 Points. (4 points withdrawn for selection)

Yesterday's result was:

2 PTS EW 2ND@13-8=2.65 pts returned= (39.45)

Have only found the one again so far and that most likely will be it for the day.

535 DOWNPATRICK- 0.5PT EW SPREEKSTEEN@5-1

Dull day, dull weekend.

Balance 38.45 points

Winner winner chicken dinner.

0.5PTS EW WON@5-1=4 PONITS RETURNED (42.45)

Balance 42.45 Points.

solid

Afternoon all.


Found a very dirty race today which could even potentially have 3 selections in, already made 2 bets in the race but will decide later on possibly a 3rd, but it will have to really be pure filth to cause me to back 3 in a race.


Still looking at other races but for now:

500 Leicester- 1.5 PTS EW SHEER COURAGE@3-1
                       0.5 PTS EW ROYAL OPERA@33-1

Balance now 38.45 points.

Another one:

530 LEICESTER- 1.5PTS EW MAGNETIC FORCE@2-1.

9-4 is available but MBN having a hills ac :(

Balance now 35.45 Points.

And another...

810 windsor- 1 POINT EW ROANSTAR@7-2

Balance now 33.45 points.

That looks like that's it for today, although like i said there is possibly1 more in the 500, but it will have to mass convince.

Done the prev selections bar the 33-1 shot in a 0.5pt ew trixie which is EW doubles and trebles, comes to 8 bets and is a lay out of 4 more points.

To recap:


500 LEICESTER- 1.5 PTS EW SHEER COURAGE@3-1*
                          0.5 PTS EW ROYAL OPERA@33-1


530 LEICESTER- 1.5PTS EW MAGNETIC FORCE@2-1.*


810 WINDSOR- 1 POINT EW ROANSTAR@7-2.*

*= In 0.5ptew trixie

Balance now 29.45 points.

The 500 race is a weird 1, sheer courage is mass strong on betfair and royal opera aint too shabby neither. The other i thought i might have 2 do is weak as- it's first time out and Emmeline Pankhurst is now 9-1.

Tempted to do small saver on it but tbh i'd prob only do it to win and that's not the point of this challenge, and it's just not strong on betfair at all.

So left that one out altogether, watch it hose up... lol

Nice start with sheer courage absoloootly nailing em, royal opera close to the places in 4th, shame as that wlda been the world on the race.

Still all good with some nice doubles and trebles running on and of crse the winning single.

Result of first race:

1.5 PTS EW@3-1 WON=8.4 points returned (37.85)
0.5 PTS EW LOST (37.85)

Balance now 37.85 points. (40 points starting bank)

Meh.

530 RESULT- 1.5 PTS EW PLACED@9-4=2.17 PTS RETURNED (40.02)

810 RESULT=UNPLACED (40.02)

TRIXIE RESULTS= 1.16 PTS RETURNED (41.18)

Balance=41.18 points.

Meh.

Just a couple so far today:

230 LINGFIELD 1PT EW IT'S YOU AGAIN@3-1

735 HEXHAM 1.5PTS EW BALLYLANIGAN@7-4


Might be one in another race in the evening too.

Balance now 36.18 points.

Not a good day so far.

First horse was nowhere and the second is now in a win only race. As it was in a 5 runner race there was always the danger that if one dropped out it would be reverted to win only.

Im actually kinda glad it's happened for the simple reason it's taught me a good lesson. In 5/8 runner races, esp in the former, at least wait till later on-as near to the race as poss, or not at all b4 betting, as a non runner often will make the bet kinda silly.

So first result is:

1PT EW LOST@5-1 BPG= (36.18 )

Balance now 36.18 points.

Even though it looks like im contradicting what i just said you always have to relatively gamble at the possibility of  non runners to make sure of getting the value.

Thus here are two selections for the 750 Huntington race, which has 8 runners.

750 HUNT- 1PT EW BLUE SPARTAN@10-3
                 0.5 PTS EW CHALICE WELCOME@20-1

Balance now 33.18 points.

You got a N/R look at that as a result, keeps the confidence UP and spartan DOWN.

Yeah mate yr right, both a positive and a negative i guess.

Bad day today but i think it's mainly just running bad and short term variance.

Last cple of results saw both horses fall:

1.5PTS EW LOST=(33.18 )
1 PT EW LOST=(33.18 )
0.5PT EW=NON RUNNER=1 PT RETURNED (34.18 )

Balance now 34.18 points.

I struggle to understand why you e/w with  less than 8

Would not back ew in a 7 runner race if i could possibly help it tbh.

Having said that in 5/6 runners races often with the improved place terms of 1/4 and often an odds on fav with the 2nd fav clear in the betting, the place is huge value.

To confirm this you just need to check the corresponding market on betfair. Value is value.

Some of the dirtiest ew shots will be in 5 runner races when there are 3 rags and a filthy ew shot as 2nd fav.

Getting on with the books in these races is the trickiest part.

Yes this challenge is down at the moment but if i'd not gambled with multiples a couple of times it wld be in profit. I'll still gamble tho, the multiples will pay their way eventually...and some.

Less than 8 with 1/4, surely your value lies in what the SP is?

Don't really get this tbh, most books are bpg now anyway, i'd never take sp.

The value on the place is clear from betfair before we get to sp, if you leave something you may also lose the value by the time of sp.

Anyway selections...

305 FFOS LAS    2PTS EW SHEER FORCE@11-4*
                          0.5 PTS EW AMENDS@28-1


350 AYR-  2PTS EW  LOS NADIS@4-1*
                0.5PTS EW KNOCK THREE TIMES@28-1

*=0.5 PT EW DBLE

Balance now 23.18 points.

Pretty sure there are some later too, could be a decisive day for this challenge.

Nice start:

2PTS EW WON@3-1 BPG=11.2 PTS RETURNED (34.38 )
0.5PTS EW LOST= (34.38 )

455 AYR-0.5 PTS EW LADY LUBE RYE@25-1

630 BEV- 1 PT EW MEDICI PALACE@4-1

750 SOUTH- 2PTS EW TALENTI@15-8

Balance now 27.38 points.

350 result:

2ND 2PTS EW  LOS NADIS@5-1 BPG=4 PTS RETURNED (31.38 )
3RD 0.5PTS EW KNOCK THREE TIMES@28-1=3.3 PTS RETURNED (34.68 )

0.5 ew dble with prev winner@3-1 returned 1.6 pts. (36.28 )

Balance now 36.28.

Going for another too in the 455 ayr race, keiran fallon already ridden a treble today, he's on the 2nd fav and if 12 stay in it's a 1/4 the odds first 3 race.

455 AYR 1 PT EW VILNIUS@13-2

Balance now 34.28.

Oops fallon wins with 4 and then loses as soon as i back one of his nags, also the outsider lost too.

455 RESULT- 1PTEW&0.5PTS EW=BOTH UNPLACED.

Balance 34.28.

Nico

Nice to follow what you are doing but, with the amount of bets you are putting through surely there is only one outcome to this challenge!!!

Good Luck Anyway

I think Dom knows what he is on about with this stuff.  Ultimately this thread is as much about monitoring and controlling his own bets as it is a pure "tipping" thread I believe.  Correct me if i'm wrong!

It is easy to spot something that looks amazing and put way too much on it, when slow and steady should win the dough.

Give it time.  I've not been betting on the selections myself, but still read with interest each day to see how things are going.

Lots of Volume, many +ev spots, rather than one or 2-is not a bad thing.

Thus i'll agree with you, there's only 1 outcome, i'm gonna get the lot.

I'm not exactly doing anything abnormal, many pro gamblers have far more bets than this, some have 1 or 2 a month or even a year. It's all about what's best for your own style, lots of bets and small +ev spots works for me. I've done this for years and don't lose on ew betting.

It's the other types of bets that hurt my roll, hence this challenge.

I'm v happy with how it's gone so far.

Oh and cheers jamie for the support m8.

Ok update time...

Yeah it's certainly not meant as a tipping thread tbh, ppl can take it or leave it.

If ppl want to follow me in fair play, if not fair play 2.

It's meant to be me monitoring a sample of bets and checking out my staking plans.

And me gaining some discipline.


Last results  of day were:

630 BEV- 1 PT EW MEDICI PALACE@4-1- UNPLACED.

750 SOUTH- 2PTS EW TALENTI@15-8-2ND=2.75 PTS RETURNED


Balance is now 37.03.

Done a couple of things today i probably shouldn't have, but we live and learn.

There are hardly any dirty ew races today, 2/3 maximum.

Early on there is only 1 horse who is filthy on the place terms. Thus i have backed it, but i'm kinda regretting being so hasty.

Basically the race is the 7.25 wetherby and the horse is Nothingbutthetruth. Now the problem is it's only a 5 runner race, therefore 1 withdrawl and i'm in trouble as it will revert to win only.

So unlike me if anyone actually fancied backing this horse ew, and this is a great ew bet imo, it's 3-1 with some 10-3 available and the next in the betting bar the odds on fav is 25-1.

It's a race that really illustrates why it's fine to back ew in a race with less than 8 runners, the place part is simply put... massive value.

The place market on betfair indicates it's about a 1.37 shot max to place,yet with the 1/4 odds the place with the books we are getting a minimum of 1.75, which is unreal value. We are getting double it's actual/correct price.

However, the main problem is backing it so early on like i have done, wait till later ftw incase of a withdrawl and then it's almost a bet to nothing.

Silly.

Also in my haste to get my bets on nice and early i followed some early money on a raggy outsider in one of the other ew play races. Now i look at it again the support on betfair seems fragile and i'm thinking i may have picked a wrong un.


Oh well at least im aware of the mistakes and hopefully won't suffer too much from them today.

Here are my possibly 'flawed' bets for the day:

250 AYR- 0.5PT EW CLASSLIN@33-1

725 WETHERBY- 2 PTS EW   NOTHINGBUTTHETRUTH@3-1

Balance now 32.03.

Yep as suspected they pulled one out of that 725 race, luckily it was mine! LOL

Balance now 36.03.

Flawed selections ftw from now on.

Just watched a replay of the 250 race.

If the jockey doesn't get the horse a little boxed in early on and delivers its run a touch earlier i gen think it wld have won.

Still 3rd and a small profit.

Also got one last selection for the day- in a 5 runner race where the place is strong on betfair, and bar the fav everything else is drifting like a barge.

One of those where the make up of the race seems to suit the selection well., firstly the result of the 250 is:


3RD 0.5PTS EW@33-1=3.8 POINTS RETURNED (39.83)



540 CLOMEL- 1PT EW VALBUCCA@7-2 (37.83)


Balance now 37.83.

Yawn another 2nd and i wish i was on rakeback for these bets :)

Still it's really interesting trying to only bet the value place on ew whether there is 1 or 20 selections in a day.

Believe it or not i am getting more disciplined, there's about 10 horses i'd have liked to have backed today, but only a couple qualified for this challenge so i didn't bet on the others.

Result:

1 PT EW 2ND@9-2 BPG=2.12 POINTS RETURNED. (39.95)

Balance now 39.95.

0.05 down overall-i'll cope somehow.

Good start to the diary Nico, no sign of it fading yet.  :)

While I'm not completly clued up on E/W backing of hroses, or horses in general, any aspect of betting fascinates me.

Keep it please.

Yeh keep it up. I never really thought there was value in backing a horse ew unless you are at least going to get your total stake back if it places so would like to see how this goes long term.

Cheers guys.

I know what you mean jose about thinking there isn't much point in backing ew unless you are getting at least your stake back, i thought this for years.

I remember the first time i started going in my local betting shop as a 16 year old who shouldn't really have been there but was. I started betting ew on everything trying to side with caution.

The oldish woman behind the counter kindly pointed out that backing ew at 6/4 wasn't really the way to go and i should be looking at 4, 5/1 minimum.

I stood by that principle for years, while being a mug punter on all gambling more or less for quite a while.

Eventually i learnt from a few shrewd ppl that betting was all about value.

Ew betting is something that the shrewdest guys always seemed to be making bucket loads on.

It's hard to explain it but it's all about the long term and place value. Basically there are certain types of races which contrive to allow normally the second favourite a rather generous place part.

Ideally the bookies wouldn't take bets on these horses as it makes no sense from a business point of view, they will lose on these selections overall.

Anyway time to try and prove this, i'll try and find some selections for tonight...

Just one today.

It's a weird one this as i almost left it out then decided the place part was juicy enough.

I really hope i would have done this on a day with ten selections, part of me worries if i've only backed it due to zero other possibilities.

It's dirty but not filthy.

720 STRATFORD- 1PT EW COOL TOUCH@3-1

Balance now 37.95.

That was 3rd so returned 1.6 points.

Balance now 39.55.

Couple of selections so far today, i think there may be 1 or 2 more later, though not totally sure.

510 CATTERICK- 1PT EW ROYAL RECORD@4-1

530 NAVAN- 1PT EW DANCE ON BY@10-3

Balance now 35.55. (40 Points starting balance)

Cldnt resist this race as i think both are place value at party prices due to the odds on fav, and sometimes these 'certs' do get turned over.

The negative is that it's only the first 2 to place due to being a 6 runner race, 1, 2 ftw please! :)

410 HAYDOCK- 0.5PTS EW BALLISTA@7-1
                        0.5 PTS EW BUSSA@14-1

Balance now 33.55.

Had a look at this race and then watched it. Still just following at the moment but that one was a race i would be more likely to get involved in.

Ok so here are the results for today so far:

410 HAYDOCK- 0.5 PTS EW BALLISTA@7-1-WON=5.38 PTS RETURNED (38.93)
                         0.5 PTS EW BUSSA=LOST (38.93)

510 CATT-1PT EW ROYAL RECORD=UNPLACED (38.93)
         
530 NAVAN-1PT EW DANCE ON BY@4-1 BPG-2ND=1.8 PTS RETURNED (40.73)

Got one last bet today:

810 CARTMEL- 1.5PTS EW THUMBS UP@13-8 (37.73)

2nd fav in 5 runner race looks 2 horse race with this one strong on betfair all day.

Balance now 37.73.

Winner.


810 CARTMEL- 1.5PTS EW THUMBS UP@13-8=6.05 points returned (43.78)

Balance now 43.78.

Couple so far today, tempted to bk more in each race, especially the latter one which is an absolutely filthy race with the top 3 miles clear in the betting, feeling 1 might get pulled out*cough...fixed* though so will wait.


210 UTTOX- 1 PT EW ONEMIX@2-1*

255 NEW- 1PT EW SWISS DREAM@5-2

Balance now 38.78.

*Edit- done them in a 0.5ew double.

Made the first one 2pts ew now, it's strong on betfair and kinda my ideal selection.

Second race i've also done another selection, the race is really filthy.

Also put the second race one in with the first race selection in an each way dble.

Revised full selections for today:

210 UTTOX- 2 PTS EW ONEMIX@9-4*

255 NEW- 1PT EW SWISS DREAM@5-2*
                 1.5PTS EW BUNCE@7-4*

*2X 0.5PTS EW DBLES

Balance now 32.78.

Winners and chicken dinners.

Results:

210 UTTOX- 2PTS EW ONEMIX@5-2 BPG- WON=10 PTS RETURNED (42.78)

255 NEW- 1PT EW SWISS DREAM@5-2-WON=5 PTS RETURNED (47.78)
                 1.5 PTS EW BUNCE@15/8 BPG-2ND=2.06 PTS RETURNED (49.84)

2X 0.5 PTS EW DBLES=WON@5-2, WON@5-2=7.25POINTS RETURNED& WON@5-2, 2ND@15/8=1.03 PTS RETURNED (58.12)

Balance now 58.12.

So many races today but not a huge amount of dirty ew races.

I'll be out most of the day so am getting my bets on early, normally i might wait till a bit nearer the off but needs must.


220 CARLISLE- 1PT EW HONEYMEAD@7-4 (56.12)

245 CARTMEL- 1PT EW MASTER FONG@5-1 (54.12)

Balance now 54.12.

The first one is a tricky one as i hate backing in 7 runner races, but this early on we might even have a non runner or 2 which would make it nicer. Also this one is an absolute mile clear in the betting from the 3rd fav and it looks a 2 horse race.

The second might be a little exposed but looks a consistent sort that probably won't let anyone down, it's place price is juicy enough.

Was tempted by an each way double but i really think i need to be very selective with them.

good work

Results:

220 CARLISLE- 1PT EW HONEYMEAD@2-1 BPG-WON=4.5 PTS RETURNED (58.62)

245 CARTMEL- 1PT EW MASTER FONG@5-1-UNPLACED (58.62)

Balance now 58.62.

Pretty sure that's about 50 selections so far, think i've had about 12 winners.

I'll try and do a more detailed round up soon enough, but the sample size is still pretty small.

Obv i'm still carrying on, the 200 point target is still yet to be achieved.

Couldn't resist a little irish bet today, just to satisfy those such as horneris who believe i'll bet at any shitty irish meeting u can shake a stick at.

Well i can't disappoint u now can i? :)

600 BALLINROBE- 1PT EW MAJESTIC PEARL@5-1 (56.62)

It's the clear 3rd fav and although another that looks exposed, it's not exactly up against derby hopefuls here.

The place part and the win bit on betfair both look strong enough so i'll have a punt.

Balance now 56.62.

That ran like a drain finishing 4th, annoying as the actual second fav won, shame that one didn't seem very dirty to me.

Result:


600 BALLINROBE- 1PT EW MAJESTIC PEARL@5-1-UNPLACED (56.62)

Balance now 56.62.

Todays selections so far.

215 LEICSTER- 2PTS EW CRYING LIGHTENING@10-3* (52.62)

545 YARMOUTH 1PT EW JOYOUSLY@4-1 (50.62)

625 FFOS LAS- 2PTS EW OLD MCDONALD@5-2* (46.62)

+0.5 PTS EW  TREBLE (45.62)

*=0.5PTS EW DBLE (44.62)

Balance now 44.62.


Actually that is probbaly all i will do today, there are a few maybe races, but i'd rather just stick with more certain types today.

The last selection is my fave, i just hope they don't pull one out, but even then i think the place wld be value.

nice start go on this at 5.4's

Results so far:


215 LEICSTER- 2PTS EW CRYING LIGHTENING@7-2 BPG-WON=12.4 POINTS RETURNED (57.02)

545 YARMOUTH 1PT EW JOYOUSLY@9-2 BPG-2ND=2.12 POINTS RETURNED (59.14)

Balance now 59.14.

This 625 race really is a dirty race, 8 runners and a mass gap from the 3rd fav at 6-1 to the rags at 20s+.

Thus doing a saver too on the 3rd fav here.

625 FFOS LAS 1PT EW TOTOMAN@6-1 (57.14)

Balance now 57.14.

Scrap that, they've pulled out totoman, hmmm i smell a rat.

Anyway that puts the balance back at 59.14 and now my orig selection has to finish in the top 2 to place.

How annoying, mine finishes 3rd.

I'm pretty sure im not the only 1 not a little surprised when in the dirtiest race of the day...shock horror one is pulled out 20 mins b4 the race.

Turns a really nice day and potentially a huge one into a very small winning one.

625 FFOS LAS- 2PTS EW OLD MCDONALD@5-2-UNPLACED (59.14)

Also 0.5 pt ew double and 0.5 pt ew trble lost due to that. (59.14)

Balance now 59.14.

There may be a selection later as in the 855 yarmouth we have a lovely ew race, just need one to stick out ew.

Just a small one to end the night. If any1 else fancies betting in the race and has time i'd advise looking at the race about 5-10 mins before the start and checking the place prices on betfair.

Right now there isn't a huge amount of liquidity but i think i've found a small wager for now. I doubt i'll have my computer on around race time as gotta go out for a bit.

Part of the reason i'm not waiting till racetime is because it's certainly not a huge play race, the fav looks pretty nailed on and nothing massively stands out ew.

855 YARMOUTH- 0.5PTS EW MISTER FROSTY@16-1 (58.14)

Balance now 58.14.

Yeah as thought the fav hosed up, mine ran with it b4 running out of petrol near home, eventually finishing out with the washing and unplaced.

So result is:

855 YARMOUTH- 0.5PTS EW MISTER FROSTY@16-1=UNPLACED (58.14)

Balance now 58.14.

Couple of selections today so far:

335 FONTWELL- 1PT EW NOBBY KIVAMBO@11-4 (56.14)

840 RIPON- 1PT EW INVITEE@6-1 (54.14)

Balance now 54.14.

You seem to do/have a lot of time to do research Nico, do you make a living from these+poker?

Hi mate, yeah i play poker for a living and do this on the side.

I used to trade on betfair more or less all the time, but now it's pretty much all poker with a bit of ew stealing money.

First horse today ran like it was shot:

335 FONTWELL- 1PT EW NOBBY KIVAMBO@11-4=UNPLACED (54.14)

Balance= 54.14.

This one in poker terms is prob a 'bit thin'.

550 KEMPTON-0.5PTS EW EXCELLO@8-1 (53.14)

Balance= 53.14.

Boom it!

Thin ftw obv.


550 KEMPTON-0.5PTS EW EXCELLO@8-1-WON=5.8 PTS RETURNED (58.94)

Balance=58.94.

Result meh.


840 RIPON- 1PT EW INVITEE@6-1-UNPLACED (58.94)

Balance now 58.94.

Busy most of the day and although there are 1 or 2 other dirty races, no selections stick out, so this could be the only one today.

300 NEWTON ABBOT- 1.5 PTS EW CALON CRWBIN@15/8 (55.94)

Unfortunately it's a 7 runner race but at 20-1 bar the top 2, it has 2 runner race written all over it. Place looks good value here so im all over it.

Balance=55.94.

What the hell lets go 4 this one too.

510 HAMILTON- 0.5PTS EW MEETINGS MAN@7-1 (54.94)

Balance=54.94.

8 runner race so please no withdrawls guys, strong on betfair, was actually an arb which looks to have a ready chance in a fairly open race.

Been given some horses from a reliable source which has netted me a big winner last month....

6.10 Sandown 4 Diamond Charlie
6.45 Sandown 2 Solemn 7/1 from 8/1

and Capable Guest on friday.

Thoughts nico?

Well i'm no technical expert on the horses as in form, trends, jockey etc.

However i can certainly let u know how i feel about its place in the market and relevance on betfair.

Diamond charlie's race has little liquidity-not much money being placed on the race, therefore it's difficult to pass much comment.

However it's a maiden which often makes the race quite open especially with a tight market like this, your selection is a general 7-1 and i cldn't say it's particularly strong on betfair or even with the books.

Yet this may change nearer the race when said liquidity appears and the place part offered if under 2.4 on betfair and if at 7-1 still, may suggest a bet ew.

The jockey on board is hayley turner and she seems full of confidence right now. Tbh i cldnt say either way on this one, im just stating the obvious.

Solemn is still a general 8/1 but again suffers from no real liquidity. The good thing about this bet is that if there are between 12-15 runnners in this handicap race we get 1/4 the place odds rather than the usual 1/5ths, currently there are 13.

In fact having looked again at its place price on betfair there are some small requests to back it at 2.64., which means at 8-1 we are receiving 3.0 on the place and thus some value.

Out of the 2 i'd prefer this one mainly due to the early activity on the place price and due to the increased place terms.

Capable guest i cldnt comment on until i see the market tmrw, like i say i am quite good at studying the markets, i leave the actual technical  horse racing knowledge to those such as chompy on here.

Hope that was of some help mate, if at all!

:)

Thanx for ur response mate!

Done em both in a £2.50 ew double as a bit of intrest so hope the both place!

Two seconds today.

300 NEWTON ABBOT- 1.5 PTS EW CALON CRWBIN@15/8=2ND= 2.2 PTS RETURNED (57.14)
 
510 HAMILTON- 0.5PTS EW MEETINGS MAN@7-1=2ND=1.2 PTS RETURNED  (58.34)

There might be one later but im not sure tbh.

Balance=58.34 pts (40 pts Starting bank)

Thanks to girgy for highlighting this one.

Am jumping on the 645 selection.

645 SANDOWN- 0.5 PTS EW SOLEMN@8-1 (57.34)

There is decent money trying to back this to place at 11-8, we get 2-1, simples.

It isn't the dirtiest of ew races if im honest, yet the selection itself is value for the place. 1/4 the odds the place swings it.

Balance=57.34.

Im on this COME ON SOLEMN!!!!!!!

SIGH

No problem mate, and ul yourself, i saw the first 1 placed too.

The fact of the matter is it was a 'value' selection and imo you won't go far wrong in the long term backing selections whch are such.

Result- 0.5 PT EW SOLEMN=UNPLACED.

Balance=57.34.

Pretty sure this will be the last selection of the day.

Basically this is a race i've been trying to find something in all day long.

The reason for this is that i believe the fav might be worth taking on, from a massively popular stable with the champ on board, i believe/hope it's just too short.

It's a maiden and thus the market normally provides a really nice guide as to who is fancied to knock a race over for the first time, i just think some books will blindly price a fav like this massively short because they know ppl will still take the lack of value with glee shouting 'it's stoute and moore and odds on-cert eh'.

Although exposed more than others my choice has some proven form, is strong on betfair especially on the place part, and is more than capable if the hot fav has an off day.

825 SANDOWN- 0.5PTS EW KENSEI@8-1 (56.34)

Balance=56.34.

Looks like i lied but obv i can't help it if selections just keep popping up! :)

810 WETHERBY- 0.5PTS EW STARBOUGG@25-1

Balance=55.34.

Boom it!

Well chuffed with kensei winning as much as for my reasoning behind the bet as much as anything else.

Other selection not so boomish.

Result:


810 WETHERBY- 0.5PTS EW STARBOUGG@25-1-UNPLACED (55.34)

825 SANDOWN- 0.5PTS EW KENSEI@8-1-1ST=5.8 PTS RETURNED (61.14)

Balance=61.14.

Nice one nico wish id started following u from the start ;)

Couple of early selections today.

Derby meeting at epsom starts today and in the 245 race we have a fairly dirty looking race.

The obrien odds on fav allows us to take fancy place prices at 1/4 the win odds here. Well with most books anyway due to it being a special meeting, lads, tote, stan james all do.

245 EPSOM- 1PT EW SARISKA@10-3 (59.14)
                    0.5 PTS EW YOUMZAIN@8-1 (58.14)

Pretty sure there will be a few more later on today, mainly on the evening meetings though from the look of it.

Hopefully win some mad dimes today, feeling a little tilty after spazzing great positions in quite a few online comps over the last cple of days. Bowl cashes really don't help.

Balance= 58.14.

Girgy- U mentioned Capable guest yesterday.

It's in a race which def cld be a dirty ew race. An 8 runner race with an odds on fav, and your selection is the 2nd fav at 4-1.

Again there isn't much liquidity around but i'd have def thought the horse wld be worth an ew shot IF 8 runners remain.

If it goes down to 7 i'd be cautious over backing it as it dsnt massively stand out for me in the market.

Might take a look myself just b4 the race which is the 225@Catterick.

Will be at work then. Ive had a small EW lucky 15 for intrest.....

1:40 Epsom Downs - Win
Harrison George @ 10/1  EW @ 1/5 1-3

2:10 Epsom Downs - Win
Mull Of Killough @ 8/1  EW @ 1/4 1-3

2:45 Epsom Downs - Win
Sariska @ 3/1  EW @ 1/5 1-3

3:25 Epsom Downs - Win
Thin Red Line @ 11/2  EW @ 1/4 1-3

Result:

245 EPSOM- 1PT EW SARISKA@10-3-2ND=1.83 PTS RETURNED (59.97)
                    0.5 PTS EW YOUMZAIN@8-1-UNPLACED (59.97)

Balance=59.97.

I backed this one earlier when 10 odd were entered, filthy race so shock horror 3 withdrawls.

Will most likely be a rule 4 on it and now it's just first 2.

800 BATH-1 PT EW SUNNY FUTURE@5/1 (57.97)

Still quite like this as it's miles clear bar the fav in the betting.

It's roughly 4/1 now and this means we get even money(2.0) on the place part for it to get in the first 2, i don't think it's that kind of price to do such, i'd make it nearer 1.7.

Balance=57.97.

1 last race also tonight.

In the 845 Doncaster we have a michael jarvis hotpot which actually looks relatively exposed.

He also trains the unraced 2nd fav and at 7-1 i'd rather have a small punt on that ew than take odds on on a horse that hasn't won in 5 attempts.

Its a maiden race and the market may indicate that a further horse, or even upping the stake could be advisable, nearer the off.

But for now:

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (56.97)

Balance=56.97.

Puke.

Than ran like a dog it really did. The fav bolts up and mine isn't even 3rd for the whinge.

Result=800 BATH 1 PT EW SUNNY FUTURE- UNPLACED (56.97)

Balance=56.97.

Not a great day so far.

I've topped up again after studying the 845 market and race again.

The 2nd fav has quite a bit of interest in its place price on betfair, prev experiences tell me this 1 cld go a bit shorter so im gambling on 7-1 being a fair price, 8-1 with vc but gg having an account with them.

Also i see there is interest in the easterby trained newcomer happy the man who is a juicily priced 25s. The race does look open to something that has a bit more in the ol locker compared to more exposed types.

Therefore:

In addition to my initial 0.5pt ew bet on city ground@7s.

845 DONCASTER- 0.5PTS EW CITY GROUND@7-1 (1PT EW TOTAL) (55.97)
                            0.5 PTS EW HAPPY THE MAN@25-1 (54.97)

Balance=54.97.

Been unable to resist topping up again on Happy the man, it's strong on betfair, very strong on the place.

845 DONCASTER-0.5 PTS EW (1PT EW TOTAL) HAPPY THE MAN@25-1 (53.97)

Balance=53.97.

Happy the man certainly doesn't describe me after watching that nag run greener than you cld ever imagine.

As for the 2nd fav, i'll be looking out for that next time out, have the feeling it really didn't want to beat the fav(stablemate ftw eh), so dropped out last, left it way late and ran on nice without ever troubling, hmmmm.

Certainly not my best day, apologies if anyone did follow some of these horses running like dogs, this thread/diary is all about me gaining some discipline from my betting, but i do hope to highlight value.

Hopefully i'll gain more discipline/value and funds over the weekend!

Result:

845 DONCASTER- 1 PT EW CITY GROUND@7-1-2ND= 2.4 PTS RETURNED (56.37)
                            1PT EW HAPPY THE MAN@25-1-UNPLACED (56.37)

Balance=56.37 pts. (40 pts starting bank)

Quite a few punts today.



215 HEXHAM- 1 PT EW MAJESTIC MAYHEM@9-4 (54.37)

255 LISTOWEL- 1.5PTS EW FIRST BEAUTY@3-1 (51.37)*
                         1PT EW MODEL COUNTY LOSS@4-1 (49.37)*

400 EPSOM- 1PT EW AZMEEL@12-1 (47.37)

425 HEXHAM- 1PT EW  BOW SCHOOL@7-2 (45.37)

440 WORCESTER- 1.5 PTS EW OFF GALIVANTING@7-2 (42.37)*

And all 2 X0.5PTS EW ACCAS (40.37)

*2X 0.5PTS EW DBLES (38.37)

Really gone for this today, if they all lose im out of profit and into loss.

Few nice selections today though, a race or 2 where the place is mass value.

As for the derby selection i'm on workforce ante post (before this challenge started), but the value isn't there now.

So i felt i should have a punt on the race due to it being 1/4 the odds and actually not a terrible ew race with quite a short priced and imo beatable fav.

Its not a massive fancy but the place is slight value and i've had a tip for it too.

Anyway im off out, time to enjoy the sunshine. :)

Balance now 38.37.

Awww man if only workforce had been included in this at 14s, wlda been nearing the 80pt mark, meh.

Anyway a mixed day mainly let down by the accumulator bets and a couple of no shows.

Results:

215 HEXHAM- 1 PT EW MAJESTIC MAYHEM@9-4-WON=4.7 PTS RETURNED (43.07)

255 LISTOWEL- 1.5PTS EW FIRST BEAUTY@7-2 BPG*-2ND=2.55 PTS RETURNED (45.62)
                         1PT EW MODEL COUNTY LOSS@4-1 *-LOST (45.62)

400 EPSOM- 1PT EW AZMEEL@12-1-LOST (45.62)

425 HEXHAM- 1PT EW  BOW SCHOOL@7-2 -LOST (45.62)

440 WORCESTER- 1.5 PTS EW OFF GALIVANTING@7-2-WON=9.3 PTS RETURNED (54.92)*

And all 2 X0.5PTS EW ACCAS-LOST (54.92)

*2X 0.5PTS EW DBLES (54.92)-(A)=1ST&2ND= 1.45 PTS RETURNED (56.37) (B)=1ST&LOST (56.37)

Balance= 56.37.

OMG- I get exactly the points back i placed today after 2 winners, 1 place and 3 losers.

Like i've said b4, wish i had rakeback on these!

Been struggling for a selection today, gone for one who is strong on betfair and in a wide open race, not filthy, just solid ew.

405 LISTOWEL- 1PT EW NOOR AL AYAAM@10-1 (54.37)

Balance= 54.37.

Def guilty of betting on something for the sake of it today.

Yeah this selection was an arb and thus pretty strong on betfair both on win and place, but it wasn't really a dirty ew selection imo, more of a punt.

I could be being results based but its just like in the derby yesterday when i took a tip and included it rather than just accepting that my prev value selection in the race was seperate but still good enough for me.

Hopefully learnt a lesson over selecting more carefully today, again don't get me wrong value is value and dirty ew is....well dirty ew. But for this challenge to succeed i must be very disciplined.

Having said that if there are 8 value ew selections tmrw and they all lose, i wont be complaining, ill just have stuck to value.

End of slight weird rant.

Result:

405 LISTOWEL- 1PT EW NOOR AL AYAAM@10-1-UNPLACED (54.37)

Balance= 54.37.

Mecox Bay @ 7/2 looks v strong this afternoon.

Price bad, horse good :D

Nice result-BPG ftw eh? :)

Im going to take a couple of days off this to make sure I stay disciplined, wasn't happy with some of my weekend flurry of bets i didn't need to do.

Oh and I need to play some poker.

Def taking it slower with this for now.

Although july time i intend to crank it right up and reach my orig target of 200 points.

Probably going vegas soon so need all available funds and need to grind some online, so can't spend too much time studying this etc.

However a keen eyed friend of mine told me about this race today.

It's pretty filthy.

Fav is wayyyyyyyy too short for me, it's another maiden and the fav looks more exposed than others, and as 2nd fav we have a stoute moore newcomer.

The derby combo ew is almost a bet to nothing for me here.

Place was VERY strong on betfair-calmed down a bit now, and i really cannot see how such a type won't be fighting it out come the business end.

Also the 3rd fav is another unraced newcomer from andrew balding, this one is also pretty strong on betfair and bar the fav these 2 don't have much to beat.

Im gonna put the farm a bit on the line here and also rfcst it.

320 SAILS- 2 PTS EW WARM MEMORIES@3-1 (50.37)
                  1 PT EW LASER RUBY@12-1 (48.37)

0.5PT RFCST (47.37)

Balance=47.37


Ps warm memories is now 4-1, wiiiii

Results based perhaps but silly silly me.

3rd fav was so weak near the off which really showed how that would run.

Again i should def leave my more questionable maiden bets to nearer the off, although it is tough to get on.

Fav wasn't 'exposed' after 2 runs, compared to non raced sorts yeah, but who isn't.

Still happy always taking a fav like that on long term.

Warm memories just seemed to lack experience and is def the type of bet this challenge is all about.

Maybe learnt something there, type like the 2nd fav is def worth a strong bet always, anything else keep to 0.5pts ew at most, and leave the farm fcsts for the real dreamers!

Oh well back to the grind and having decimated a lot of the profit here, lets leave it for a while before it all goes.

Result:


320 SAILS- 2 PTS EW WARM MEMORIES@4-1 BPG-2ND=3.6 PTS RETURNED (50.97)
                  1 PT EW LASER RUBY@12-1-UNPLACED (50.97)

Balance= 50.97 pts. (Starting bank 40 pts)

Before i go to vegas i intend to do some kind of analysis of the stats of this challenge so far. Should be fun, and i really do feel im learning a great great deal from this challenge.

Scattergun is still a slight problem but i am constantly striving for long term value and i am def annoyed if i break rules by chasing short term value over the longer+ev option.

Knightfire ew @ 9/1 in the next at Kempton looks pretty good.

Although I detest backing horses ridden by Shane Kelly.

Ok so im back from vegas and going to start up this again.

Pre vegas analysis didn't happen and i'll need to delaze to get round to that.

I'll start off from the 50.97 balance which began at 40 and see if i can get this up to the 200 bank i planned for, watch out this could get scary, i fancy punting!

Will post a selection if and when...

Starting Balance=50.97.

215 NEWTON ABBOT-  1.5PTS EW MINNEAPOLIS@11-4 (47.97)
                                  1PT EW UNLEASHED@4-1 (45.97)

650 RIPON- 1.5PTS EW SULTAN'S CHOICE@5-2 (42.97)

840 WINDSOR- 1PT EW BERNIES MOON@25-1 (40.97)


920 RIPON- 1PT EW SQUALL@9-2 (38.97)
                   1PT EW BURSARY@9-2 (36.97)

Def looks a little scattergun again but there are quite a few dirty races today. I've actually left out a couple the old me would have thrown in.

Not gonna go for any multis as im gonna try and limit those to 2 point plus selections.

Balance is now 36.97.

Not a great start to the day with the 2nd fav cruising b4 getting caught late on by a rag whilst unleashed left it 2 late to even place.

215 NEWTON ABBOT-  1.5PTS EW MINNEAPOLIS@11-4 - 2ND=2.33 PTS RETURNED(39.3)
                                  1PT EW UNLEASHED@4-1- UNPLACED (39.3)

Balance=39.3 pts.

Ok results:

650 RIPON- 1.5PTS EW SULTAN'S CHOICE@5-2-3RD=2.25 PTS RETURNED (41.55)

840 WINDSOR- 1PT EW BERNIES MOON@25-1 -UNPLACED (41.55)


920 RIPON- 1PT EW SQUALL@9-2-1ST=7.4 PTS RETURNED (48.95)
                   1PT EW BURSARY@9-2 -2ND=1.9 PTS RETURNED (50.85)

Another rakeback type day where we need some comps back from the volume.

Obv was saved by the last winner but I had the 1/2 there so it really didn't matter who won.

So moving on balance is 50.85 Points.

Up to a couple of minutes ago i was so looking forward to this post.

No bets today i was proudly about to announce as i poured my way thru dirty ew less cards.

Then the discipline i was so proud of suddenly evaporated and i had to place a bet on the 650 dirtyish race.

If only there were 8 runners or more this would be filthy.

I know a great deal of ppl don't believe races with between 5-7 runners can be dirty as we only get first 2 for the place.

However certain types of races like this still give place value.

The 2nd fav here is at 9-4, miles clear of the 12-1 3rd fav and onwards. The true place price we are getting is 1.5625, yet on betfair where you have to pay comish ppl are freely asking for bundles at 1.55, with only pennies being offered@ 1.46.

Thus the true place price is probably a bit nearer to 1.45-1.5  and although thinish I gain some value here, plus I get BPG.

Also this isn't one of those selections where we just pray for our selection to place kinda giving up on all hopes of a victory due to a mass heavy odds on fav, there isn't much diff here btwn the 1.8 shot and our 9-4 selection.

Anyway im on the following on a dire day for ew betting, i shall enjoy the sun instead and try and play some poker at some point.

Balance=50.85.

650 UTTOX- 1 PT EW SAHRATI@9-4 (48.85)

Balance=48.85 Points.

Sweet, winner, winner- chicken dinnna.


650 UTTOX- 1 PT EW SAHRATI@9-4-1ST=4.81 PTS RETURNED (53.66)

Balance now 53.66 Points.

nice work mate

Cheers mate. :)



Onwards and upwards, today there are a couple of selections, both run in the evening and both look strong ew fancies.

The first selection off around 6 is a real problem for me, it's a do i or don't i risk it?

Now if the race was off in 5 minutes i'd have no hesitation in backing it ew for 2 points, the problem is it's in a 5 runner race, 1 withdrawl and that's win only, so i'll wait till nearer the off as also i doubt the value will go.


The second selection which i hope to do in a double with the first is in a maiden irish race.

I took the value 5-1 on offer earlier as this one was mega strong on betfair, according to the market it will be a two horse race.

Unraced up against exposed types this Obrien sort won't need to be anything amazing to stroll this imo.

It's now best priced 4-1 but i'd still say that looks mass place value according to betfair where ppl will accept 1.58 the place on a 1.8 shot.

There may even be a third selection today if yet another evening race turns dirty.

For now:

Balance=53.66 Points.

630 NASS- 2PTS EW SHERWOOD FOREST@5-1 (49.66)

Balance= 49.66 Points.

Going to follow you with Sherwood Forest today Nico

Following me carries a wealth warning mate, but gl! :)

Ok so smallish ew bet in the 600 and im going 4 the 610 race which was the questionable one i mentioned earlier due 2 a poss problem incase of withdrawls.

600 NAAS- 1PT EW MISS WINDLEY@7-1 (47.66)

610 WORCESTER- 2PT EW LAMBRO LAD@5-2 (43.66)*

*=0.5 EW DBLE WITH 630 NASS- SHERWOOD FOREST@5-1  (42.66)

Balance=42.66 Points.

Ok so miss windley has scraped home in 2nd an absolute mile behind the winner, reason i chose it was due to its place being mass value compared to betfair.

This 610 one is what ew betting is all about, at 5-2 1/4 the odds we get 1.625 on the selection to place, betfair punters want 1.18- comish, it's an absolute filthy selection.

The fav and my choice are realistically the only ones with a chance here.

Lets get a double up one time pleeeeeeeeease, :)

In fact i cannot resist piling in for another 2 points ew on lambros lad here, its place price is sick value.

610 WORCESTER- 4PTS EW TOTAL LAMBRO LAD@5-2 (38.66)*

Balance=38.66 Points.

Annoying, the odds on shot wins with mccoy riding the cheekiest way race poss, was value for a ten length win but lets mine think at 2-3 lengths that it had a chance, it clearly didn't.

Still no disaster and that race was an example of dirty ew betting at its finest.

Results so far:

Balance=38.66.

600 NAAS- 1PT EW MISS WINDLEY@8-1 BPG-2ND=2. 6PTS RETURNED (41.26)

610 WORCESTER- 4PTS EW LAMBRO LAD@11-4 BPG=6.75PTS RETURNED (48.01)

Balance=48.01 Points.

Sherwood is looking promising at around 5-2 to back now, valoooooooooooooooo-been had :)

Well the fav has won well there and sherwood has been lucky to sneak a place, market kinda spoke wrongly about its chances, yet its another example of a great ew bet so win or lose im happy with the value.

Final result of the evening for this challenge i believe:

Balance=48.01.

Result:

630 NASS= 2 PTS EW SHERWOOD FOREST@5-1-3RD=4 PTS RETURNED (52.01)

0.5 PT EW DOUBLE= 2ND&3RD= 1.69 PTS RETURNED (53.7)

Balance= 53.70 Points.

What a tease of a day, clda ended up with the old minger-broke, instead i've missed out on the fortune-stunner and woke up next to the girl next door-levels- - story of my life...:)

Funny.

Just like that movie line, once you think you've got out they drag you back in, urgh deniro or pacino i forget.

Anyway i digress, there is 1 more now tonight, left it earlier but good ol trusty betfair place market has reeled me in2 following it.

In what looks a clear match the selection is nice place value with a clear poss of the BPG rule coming in also.

I can't really see much between the fav and this one so have no hesitation in backing this ew kinda semi freerolling on the win bit, i say kinda cos if it merely places due to the price there will be a small loss.

Def final selection for the night imo:


Balance=53.70.

900 NAAS- 2 PTS EW MUTAMALEQ@15-8 (49.70)

Balance=49.70 Points.

Meh beat the fav but still just 2nd.

Result:


900 NAAS- 2 PTS EW MUTAMALEQ@15-8-2ND= 2.75 POINTS RETURNED (52.45)

BALANCE=52.45 Points.

Bar 1 race mid afternoon that cld turn dirty and a very late evening race where nothing has yet stepped out in a dirty looking race...there is zilch today.

So less one of those changes its zero selections today and discipline FTW...im so proud! :)

I really do have no discipline-official.

Having said that this race im doing has been bugging me all day, it looks a perfect ew race. A short priced fav with 8 runners-no withdrawls please, the 2nd fav looks to be the perfect kind of selection for this challenge.

Also with some books due to this being a featured meeting we get 1/4 the odds the place, always worth trying to take advantage of.

One selection today, less the other late race changes dramatically which i doubt.

Balance=52.45.

310 NEWMARKET- 1.5 PTS EW HOLBERG@3-1 (49.45)

Balance=49.45 Points.

Ooops-no good.

310 NEWMARKET- 1.5 PTS EW HOLBERG@3-1-UNPLACED  (49.45)

Balance=49.45 Points.

Just the 3 today-EDIT NOW 4-, very dull again as far as ew races today

Tbh the first selection is the only 'conventional' ew selection today. In a 8 runner race with an odds on shot itself and the 2nd fav are place value and miles clear of the nags behind in the betting.

However the second and 3rd choices have their merits in diff ways. The 66-1 shot is in a 1/4 odds first 3 race, which means we can loosen our requirements a little. Also it is 11-1 to place on betfair with myself getting 16.5-1 minimum. It's win part is strong on betfair and i really don't think any 1 or 2 horses stand out in an open race-bar maybe the 7/4 fav but even them im not totally convinced.

The third selection is a bit of a steamer in another 1/4 odds race, this time paying first 4, it looks wide open and getting 5/1 the first 4 is more than juicy enough 4 me.

Balance=49.45.

215 YORK- 1 PT EW KING OF THE CELTS@10-3 (47.45)

310 NEWMARKET- 0.5 PT EW SERIOUS ATTITUDE@66-1 (46.45)

725 NEWBURY- 0.5PT EW RAINBOW MIRAGE@20-1 (45.45)

Balance=45.45 Points.


EDIT- Just realised how insane it is that i didn't also put in the 2nd fav in the 215 race, it's actually even dirtier.

Thus:

Balance= 45.45.

215 YORK- 1.5 PTS EW TOKUM@5-2 (42.45)

Balance=42.45 Points.

Someone on leeds forums tipping up Prime defender in 3:10, got  100/1 ew but its 60/1 now. doomed to come last imo

Results:

215 YORK- 1 PT EW KING OF THE CELTS@4-1 BPG-2ND=1.8 PTS RETURNED (44.25)
                 
                  1.5 PTS EW TOKUM@5-2-UNPLACED (44.25)

310 NEWMARKET- 0.5 PT EW SERIOUS ATTITUDE@66-1-UNPLACED(44.25)

725 NEWBURY- 0.5PT EW RAINBOW MIRAGE@20-1-3RD=3 PTS RETURNED (47.25)

Balance=47.25 Points.

Nothing doing in afternoon racing.

In the evening there are a couple, basically the 615 one is another 5 runner race, i'm gambling on there not being a withdrawl as i may not be able to get on later.

However if i can get on b4 and there isn't a non runner i'll make it a 2 pt ew selection.

The second selection is strong on betfair in a race that looks dirty ew perfect.

Balance=47.25.

615 SAILSBURY- 1PT EW GOODWOOD TREASURE@2-1 (45.25)

735 HAMILTON- 1PT EW BEES RIVER@8-1 (43.25)

Wow lucky i cldnt get on b4 the 615 or i wld have lost another 2 points-not a good day.

Results:


615 SAILSBURY- 1PT EW GOODWOOD TREASURE@2-1-UNPLACED (43.25)

735 HAMILTON- 1PT EW BEES RIVER@8-1-UNPLACED (43.25)

Balance=43.25 Points.

No spiel just hopefully winners today or this challenge will be looking decidingly dicey.

Balance=43.25.

310 PERTH- 2PTS EW ROSE STREET@2-1 (39.25)*

                    0.5PTS EW BUCEPHALUS@12-1 (38.25)

350 SOUTH- 2PTS EW KING OF THE CASTLE@7-4 (34.25)*

400 STRATFORD- 1PT EW GULF PUNCH@9-2 (32.25)

*=0.5 PT EW DOUBLE (31.25)

Balance=31.25 Points.

Madness, i get a 12-1 winner yet still lose on the day, something surely wrong there, hmmmm.

Wd spain imo.


Results:

310 PERTH- 2PTS EW ROSE STREET@2-1-UNPLACED (31.25)*

                    0.5PTS EW BUCEPHALUS@12-1-WON=8.2 POINTS RETURNED (39.45)

350 SOUTH- 2PTS EW KING OF THE CASTLE@7-4-2ND=2.7 POINTS RETURNED (42.15)*

400 STRATFORD- 1PT EW GULF PUNCH@9-2-UNPLACED (42.15)

*=0.5 PT EW DOUBLE-2ND&UNPLACED (42.15)

Balance=42.15 Points.

Terrible day for ew betting with just one selection so far and maybe one later at a push.

Tbh reevaluating all this wldnt be a bad thing so perhaps the lack of bets will help me do some much needed study over the stats and find out where things can be drastically improved, im not liking how the balance is decreasing.

So just one so far, it's miles clear as 2nd fav and pretty strong on betfair if not insanely so.


Balance=42.15 Points.

200 AYR- 1PT EW JIBAAL@5-2 (40.15)

Balance=40.15 Points.

Result:


200 AYR- 1PT EW JIBAAL@5-2-UNPLACED (40.15)

Balance=40.15 Points.

lol Dom you love it!

LOL-Loving the sweat as always, not loving the constant donkey peformances! :)


Today there are lots of if's, but's and maybe's.

After some study i think some of my prev stakes have been too high, and even on occasion-too low.

I'm working on this..

Mostly a bunch of slightly dirty ew horses today, hence the 0.5 stakes, the 850 selection is in a race where it's not stand out dirty ew, but it was arby/strong on betfair, and with 8 runners it's a value place race.

Balance=40.15 Points.

550 DOWN- 1 PT EW HILLS OF CLARAGH@5-2 (38.15)

630 YARMOUTH- 0.5PT EW AHLAAIN@5-1 (37.15)

820 MUSS- 1PT EW OOONDIRI@5-2 (35.15)

850 MUSS 0.5 PT EW HARCAS@12-1 (34.15)

900 YARMOUTH 0.5 PT EW BROUGHTON'S POINT@9-2 (33.15)

Balance= 33.15 Ponits.

Results so far:

Balance=33.15 Points.

550 DOWN- 1 PT EW HILLS OF CLARAGH@5-2-2ND=1.5 PTS RETURNED (34.65)

630 YARMOUTH- 0.5PT EW AHLAAIN@7-1 BPG-2ND=1.2 PTS RETURNED (35.85)

Balance=35.85 Points.

Sure like the seconditus.

Wow something to be happy about...twice. :)

Results:

Balance=35.85 Points.

820 MUSS- 1PT EW OOONDIRI@5-2-5P Rule 4 Reduction in Pound-1ST=4.97 PTS RETURNED (40.12)

850 MUSS 0.5 PT EW HARCAS@12-1-3RD=1.7 PTS RETURNED (41.82)

900 YARMOUTH 0.5 PT EW BROUGHTON'S POINT@9-2-1ST=3.81 PTS RETURNED (45.63)

Balance= 45.63 Points.

Woke up late today so just been able to see this filthy selection, with the champ on brd this is more or less a max bet for me, strong on betfair too.

Balance=45.63 Points.

330 LIN- 4PTS EW GIVE YOUR VERDICT@9-4 (37.63)

Balance=37.63 Points.

FML.

Really really thought moore had nicked that, best horse won tho i guess.

RESULT:

330 LIN- GIVE YOUR VERDICT 4 PTS EW- 2ND@9-4=5.8 PTS RETURNED (43.43)

Balance=43.43 Points.

Feeling there cld be a few today, gotta keep discipline or this cld get ugly, no regrets on last selection, that exemplified the reason for dirty ew betting.

Just this one for now:

Balance=43.43 Points.

440 UTTOX- 1PT EW DANIMIX@7-2 (41.43)

Balance=41.43 Points.

Going to limit it to just these two in addition to the prev selection in the 440.

400 LIN- 0.5PT EW SPENNYMOOR@8-1 (40.43)

810 WORCESTER- 0.5 PT EW HEEZAGREY@33-1 (39.43)

Balance=39.43 Points.

Results inc winna winna chick dinna.

400 LIN- 0.5PT EW SPENNYMOOR@8-1-UNPLACED (39.43)

440 UTTOX- 1PT EW DANIMIX@7-2-1ST=6.2 POINTS RETURNED (45.63)

Balance=45.63 Points.

Here's hoping i can finally nail a long priced winner in the 810, almost picked a 33-1 shot that bolted up earlier, but it was weak on betfair so i left it out, aftertiming anyway, and again im proud of the discipline.

Dom, what % of your time is spent doing this and what % spent playing teh pokers?

Don't really spend that much time on this tbh, but then again due to being extremely lazy i don't spend much time on the pokers recently mate.

If i was thinking seriously i guess i spend like between 30 mins to 1 hour on this a day, when i'm proper grinding i'd be doing at least 6 hours a day on poker, so lets say maybe 85% poker 15% punting.

Especially given the 5pts profit in 2 months.  Hope you're doing about £500 a point....   :P

LOL- Actually a good one for u there mate.

BTW I started late may, did this for like 3 weeks, then stopped for vegas and have started it up again in the last week or so, 1 month thus FTW! :)

Jeez this would have tilted the hell out of me already, one step forward, one step back. Think I would have instashoved the whole roll way before now to get a result one way or the other :D

Paitience.

Anyway that 33-1 shot placed so a reasonable day.

Result:


810 WORCESTER- 0.5 PT EW HEEZAGREY@33-1-3RD=3.8 POINTS RETURNED (49.43)

Balance=49.43 Points.

A couple so far for today, first one looks an ideal selection, second one is strong place on betfair.

Balance=49.43.

200 CARTMEL- 2 PT EW OURSININLAW@9-4 (45.43)

400 HAM- 1PT EW DYNAMIC IDOL@5-1 (43.43)

Balance=43.43.

Binkage!

Camerawork at cartmel made me seasick, weird.

Anyway nice start to the day indeed.

Result:

Balance=43.43 Points.

200 CARTMEL- 2 PT EW OURSININLAW@9-4-1ST=9.4 POINTS RETURNED (52.83)

Balance=52.83 Points.

Three more today, hopfully push on up towards the heights of the 60 Points balance where i reached briefly before.


Balance=52.83 Points.


700 DON- 2 PTS EW ISTISHAARA@5-2 (48.83)

                1 PT EW PANDORO DE LAGO@4-1 (46.83)

905 LEP- 1 PT EW POINTILLISTE@10-1 (44.83)



Balance=44.83 Points.

ALREADY SELECTED:
400 HAM- 1PT EW DYNAMIC IDOL@5-1

And another one, pokerly apt.

Balance=44.83 Points.

415 CARTMEL- 1 PT EW ACE HIGH BLUE@3-1 (42.83)

Balance=42.83 Points.

And that is it for the day.

Two to forget kinda, well the first one deffo.

Results:

Balance=42.83 Points (40 Point Starting Bank)

400 HAM- 1PT EW DYNAMIC IDOL@5-1-UNPLACED (42.83)

415 CARTMEL- 1 PT EW ACE HIGH BLUE@3-1-2ND=1.6 POINTS RETURNED (44.43)

Balance=44.43 Points.

Meh...just....meh.

Balance=44.43 Points.

Results:

700 DON- 2 PTS EW ISTISHAARA@5-2-UNPLACED (44.43)

                1 PT EW PANDORO DE LAGO@4-1-UNPLACED (44.43)

905 LEP- 1 PT EW POINTILLISTE@10-1-UNPLACED(44.43)

Balance=44.43 Points.

A bit annoyed with this challenge at the moment, i know i'm making mistakes regarding selections and stake sizes, after today i think i'll take a few days off to study some trends and analyse my stats.

Having said all this i still feel my selections are almost always +ev and i am getting quite unlucky regarding seconds and horses running under par, yet i'd rather rely on making every deciosn correctly, rather than most.

I just feel i probably am spending too much time on this while not doing everything correcty, that will change as i am determined to make this 200 point target.

Just the 3 today, going to mix it up with an ew double, something i probably need to be doing a little more.

The big price selection is available at 66s with corals, but gl getting on with that rabble.

Balance=44.43 Points.

635 PON- 2 PTS EW EL VIENTO@3-1 (40.43)*

                 0.5 PT EW SLEIGHTS BOY@50-1 (39.43)

905 KILBEGGAN- 1 PT EW DES RES@11-4 (37.43)*

*=0.5 PT EW DOUBLE (36.43)

Balance=36.43 Points.

Off to ponte races nico got any selections? Heard go go green in 7.35 at 9/1!

Well my selections both lost-ran like dogs...that is all. :(

 Glglgl! :)

Done fk all so far! Lumping on mr wolf in the 9.10! Course and distance ew specialist ;)

Single
16 Jul 2010 - 9:10 Pontefract - Win
Best Odds Guaranteed!
Mr Wolf @ 7/1  EW @ 1/5 1-3
Stake : £20.00 (£10.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £104.00

Am now making the 905 race selection a 2 point ew bet.

So in addition to the prev 1 pt ew bet@11-4:

Balance=36.43 Points.

905 KILBEGGAN 1 PT EW DES RES@3-1 (34.43)

Balance=34.43 Points.

Result is that that was 4th and thus unplaced-meh.

Balance=34.43 Points.

Will hopefully come back in a week or 2 with some new tactics, cos i just don't think this is working, too scattergun without enough discipline on stake sizes.

The first at Newton Abbot is disgusting. Wheres the value?

Yeah filthy looking race, nice spot.

Tbh nothing mass stands out right now though i'm sure one will nearer the off, but obv by then the value will almost disappear.

Right now according to betfair the likeliest most place vaue wld be found with gulf punch@17-2.

An exposed sort, but it knows how to place in this sorta race and ppl asking for odds on the place tells its own story.

Even then tho liquidity wise betfair isnt great on this race.

Feeling if i wanted a nice safe ew bet id go on gulf punch fully expecting a return without ever expecting it to nail the fav.

If i felt a bit like punting i might go 4 a newcomer like either 0cean club@14s or Othello@28s.

Like i say nearer the time is prob when something will stand out.

Need to get bk into all this again, just gotta do the research and go through all the figs again, just cant be bothered! :)

FML.

Forgot about this, gulf punch won @ 8-1. The safe ew bet wins again.

Still way too lazy to do this properly, i.e analyse stats, put in mass volume again and maybe even a little bit of research.

Having said all that i've still got a couple of selections i really like today so am gonna punt them and hopefully get some extra bucks.

Starting balance=40 Points.

Balance=34.43 Points.

210 RED- 1PT EW JADE@5-1 (32.43)

250 MUSS- 2PTS EW SAXONETTE@7-2 (28.43)

1 PT EW DOUBLE (26.43)

The first selection is very strong on the place part on betfair, the second is miles clear of the field as second fav in its race, and the place price that we get of 1.7 is only 1.36 on betfair, we basically get twice it's place price, valueeeeeee.

Time to win some mad ones.

Followed your thread for a while now.

Just a couple of questions.

Why bet each way at short prices such as 7/4 when a place will make you a big loss? You only make a profit if they're over 5/1 if placed.

At 7/4  £100EW returns £135 from £200 staked if placed (1/5 odds)
On Betfair the place may be 1.25 , so in your eyes would that represent value?

The way i see this particular example is that it would be an unwise bet at 7/4 despite the place terms being slightly better.Would a win bet only at smaller stakes be more wise ?Interested to hear your views

In the 250 muss Saxonette is clear 2nd fav like you say , but only a win will make a profit , a place = small loss.

So in this particuar race the only way to make profit is to pick the winner.EW on either of the first 2 in the betting would result in a loss.

Yeah it's all about value, simple as that.

Betting on a horse getting 1.7 on the place part when it is actually a 1.35 shot, represents HUGE value.

You don't bet each way just to make a profit from the horse if it places but doesn't win.

You bet each way because, imo, the place part is value and therefore worth doing. You should look at the bet as two seperate bets, the win part, and the place part.

Obviously there is probably no point in the bet in the first place if you think the horse has no chance whatsoever of winning, however sometimes that is the only way to get the place value.

In these circs, if poss- laying off the win party on betfair would be ideal.

Anyway results and meh:

Balance=26.43 Points.

210 RED- 1PT EW JADE@5-1-LOST (26.43)

250 MUSS- 2PTS EW SAXONETTE@7-2 -3RD=3.4 PTS RETURNED(29.83)

1 PT EW DOUBLE-LOST (29.83)

Bringing back this diary of sorts to help me keep records.

I'm very determined to proves this form of betting works, i had yet another betting account closed recently and am determined to hit the books where it hurts.

Still not been bothered to go through all the stats, i've just decided this didn't work as well as it should have- due to general spewing in the process of selecting and a general scattergun approach. Discipline ftw.

Even then i didn't do much wrong bar run bad! :)

But i'm always seeing filthy ew value every day and therefore i feel i need to get back into this again. So i will, i'll just be more selective.

Balance carried over from last time is 29.83 Points from the 40 point starting bank. I still am determined to get this bank up to 200 points.

Just three horses today in very bad ew races. Both races only have 8 entries, thus no non runners pretty please.

The first two are both unexposed types up against an extremely short priced favourite, strong on betfair, it really looks a 3 horse race and i don't back odds on.

The last one is mega strong on betfair and although relatively exposed looks a place cert in a race that won't need trees pulled up to win.

225 LEP= 1 PT EW WARNING FLAG@9-2 (27.83)

                0.5 PT EW RULING@9-2 (26.83)

350 SOUTH= 0.5 PT EW LAY CLAIM@4-1 (25.83)

Balance=25.83 Points.

Results:

225 LEP= 1 PT EW WARNING FLAG@9-2- 2ND=1.9 PTS RETURNED(27.73)

                0.5 PT EW RULING@9-2-LOST (27.73)

350 SOUTH= 0.5 PT EW LAY CLAIM@4-1-2ND=0.9 PTS RETURNED (28.63)

Balance=28.63 Points.

Feeling confident about these today, all strong on betfair and in the first race the place value is immense.


BALANCE=28.63 Points.

215 PUN= 1 PT EW ROSS NA RIGH@11-2 (26.63)

                1PT EW CROM ABU@11-2 (24.63)

230 YAR= 0.5 PT EW RAW SPIRIT@6-1 (23.63)

240 TAUNTON= 0.5 PT EW TIGNELLO@10-1 (22.63)

+2X 0.25EW TREBLES (21.63)

BALANCE=21.63 POINTS.

Meh first race second and third places, pesky odds on favourite!

Just in case both of the next two miraculously win i'll stick a 0.25 pt ew double on the 230 and 240 selections.

Balance now 21.13 points.

Puke. Dettori gave that a terrible ride, totally gave up on third when he realised he cldnt win. Superb, gg.

The 1/4 shot was almost turned over by a horse that sounds like a poker player, little rocky.

Least i learnt to avoid frankie on speculative picks. Come on last selection today, win the lot please. :)

Results:

BALANCE=21.13 Points.

215 PUN= 1 PT EW ROSS NA RIGH@11-2-3RD=2.1 PTS RETURNED (23.23)

                1PT EW CROM ABU@11-2-2ND@7-1 BPG=2.4 PTS RETURNED (25.63)

230 YAR= 0.5 PT EW RAW SPIRIT@6-1-LOST (25.63)

+0.25 EW DBLE=LOST (25.63)

240 TAUNTON= 0.5 PT EW TIGNELLO@10-1-3RD=1.5 PTS RETURNED (27.13)

+2X 0.25EW TREBLES-LOST (27.13)


BALANCE=27.13 POINTS.

Feel unlucky today, all my selections were beaten by worthy winners, yet if raw spirit places i turn a smallish healthyish profit, dsnt so gg 1.5 points.

Onwards and upwards tmrw!

Nothing amazing sticks out today but these few are all place value in races with an odds on favourite and lots of nags without much hope, hopefully one of them can bink a win too.

BALANCE=27.13.

230 NOTT-0.5PT EW CHARLES CAMOIN@11-1 (26.13)

                  0.5PT EW 0.5 PT EW WAYWARD GLANCE@33-1 (25.13)

240 MUSS- 0.5 PT EW 0.5 PT EW OPUS MAXIMUS@5-2 (24.13)

BALANCE=24.13





                 

Omg 2 winners and 1 place, in fact a 1-2 in that race. :)

No ew double today grrrrrr.


Results and feeling better!


BALANCE=24.13 POINTS.

230 NOTT-0.5PT EW CHARLES CAMOIN@11-1-1ST=7.6PTS RETURNED (31.73)

                 0.5PT EW WAYWARD GLANCE@33-1-2ND=3.8 PTS RETURNED(35.53)

240 MUSS- 0.5 PT EW OPUS MAXIMUS@5-2-1ST=2.5 PTS RETURNED (38.03)

BALANCE=38.03 POINTS

(40 POINT STARTING BANK)

This next race is the perfect example of a dirty ew race, 8 runners, an even money fav and place value galore.

Tbh there is a case for a few of em here, but i'll just trust the strength on betfair and side with the 2nd fav.

BALANCE=38.03 POINTS.

430 FONT- 1 PT EW MTPOCKETS@7-2 (36.03)

BALANCE=36.03 POINTS.

ohh nice put a small bet on this one.

Winner winner chicken dinner.

Result:

BALANCE=36.03 POINTS.

430 FONT- 1 PT EW MTPOCKETS@7-2-1st=6.2 POINTS RETURNED (42.23)

BALANCE=42.23 POINTS.

Def another selection in a bit and perhaps one at wolves tonight too.

Boy it feels nice to be back in the black again! :)

The fav in the 525 has tony 'best jumps jock imo by a mile' mccoy on it. Thus the price is prob shorter than it should be.

This gives some value to the 2nd and the 3rd favs, esp on the place part.

The third fav looks the choice to me here, unexposed, raced once, won once.


Balnce=42.23 Points.

525 STRAT- 0.5 PT EW SIZING SANTIAGO@6-1 (41.23)

Balance=41.23 Points.

Well that ran well...not.

Might have another at wolves but tbh probably not, although1 or 2 races have potential, there appears to be nothing standing out.

Balance=42.23 Points.

525 STRAT- 0.5 PT EW SIZING SANTIAGO@6-1-Lost. (41.23)

Balance=41.23 Points.

Cldnt resist a small punt.

Balance=41.23.

720 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW ROI DU BOEUF@6-1 (40.23)

Balance=40.23 POINTS.

FML.

Mine ran like a nag in 4th. Odds on fav got turned over by one of the ones i was considering, but tbf there were like 3/4 choices.

Lesson-resist small punts in future, race was just too place heavy.

Result:

Balance=40.23.

720 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW ROI DU BOEUF@6-1-LOST (40.23)

Balance=40.23 POINTS.

Could possibly be tilt, but tbh i'm still up on the day and i've been considering this selection all day.

The race has ten runners in but half look hopeless nags with about as much chance of winning this as i do of giving up beer.

Third fav has a hungry richard hughes on board and is pretty strong on betfair.

Last bet of the day.

Balance=40.23.

750 WOLV-0.5 PT EW ELECTRA STAR@9-2 (39.23)

Balance=39.23 POINTS.

Very unfortunate that, the first two were miles clear, unfortunately mine was quite easily beaten into second.

No real damage done though.

Result:

Balance=39.23.

750 WOLV-0.5 PT EW ELECTRA STAR@9-2-2ND=0.95 POINTS RETURNED(40.18)

Balance=40.18 POINTS.

Nice couple of days mate congrats.Who would you say is the better jockey Franky or Mccoy ?

Cheers.:)

Well one is a flat and one is a jumps jock, personally think frankie is a very good flat jockey and a well known mdeia personality.

Mccoy imo is the best ever jump jockey.

Nice sitting on the fence there then.

Surely very good can't be compared to best ever??

No fences here ty.

:)

Suppose so,but you didn't directly answer it,I don't do reading between lines you see.I was chuffed for McCoy when he won the National as I felt he really deserved it.

Have put some on early today as may be busy later.


Balance=40.18 POINTS.

130 UTTOX- 0.5 PT EW MY BOY PADDY@11-4 (39.18)

300 NEW- 0.5 PT EW GLAS BURN@16-1 (38.18)

355 WETH- 0.5PT EW GRANDOUET@3-1 (37.18)

Balance=37.18 POINTS.

Annoyingly nothing stands out hugely, thus no 1 point selections, but these look fair place value anyway.

There are actually a few dirty ew races today.

Well that was a minging set of results.In all 3 races i thought i had the winner near home.

Ended up with just a second.

Results:

Balance=37.18 POINTS.

130 UTTOX- 0.5 PT EW MY BOY PADDY@11-4-2ND=0.78 POINTS RETURNED(37.96)

300 NEW- 0.5 PT EW GLAS BURN@16-1-LOST (37.96)

355 WETH- 0.5PT EW GRANDOUET@3-1-LOST (37.96)

Balance=37. 96 POINTS.

Have another two selections just coming up now, hopefully one will wipe out today's losses.

610 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW PODGIES BOY@5-1 (36.96)

                  0.5 PT EW EDUCATED SON@8-1 (35.96)


BALANCE=35.96 POINTS.

GL Bud, i'm on Areef in this 6.10. 19.5 for the win and 3.3 for the place.

Some of these jocks do my head in.

Educated son seemed to be full of running but was never really put into the race till late on and never seemed interested in upsetting the fav, prob pocket talking as unlikely to have beaten the winner, wld just like to see it given a chance.

Result:


610 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW PODGIES BOY@5-1-LOST (35.96)

                  0.5 PT EW EDUCATED SON@8-1-2ND=1.3 POINTS RETURNED (37.26)

BALANCE=37.26 POINTS.



:( Unlucky too mate.

I see what you mean about Educated Son, pretty poor jockeyship really. Doubt it would have beaten the fav but would have definetly been closer.

Mine wasn't great, expected better as a couple of interesting bets went on it at Sporting Bet.

Can't see much in terms of ew value today.

Will most likely just be these selections and nothing else.

This race has ten runners, half of which look out classed, and an odds on fav.

With one bookmaker offering favourable 1/4 the place odds these two selections are big place value. They both have chances and hopefully one can turn over the very short priced cecil hotpot.


BALANCE=37.26 POINTS.

345 NEW- 0.5 PT EW MEASURING TIME@5-1 (36.26)
                  
                0.5 PT EW INDIGO WAY@8-1 (35.26)

BALANCE=35.26 POINTS.

One two wiiiiiiiii.

Result:

BALANCE=35.26 POINTS.

345 NEW- 0.5 PT EW MEASURING TIME@5-1-2ND=1.12 POINTS RETURNED (36.38)
                   
                0.5 PT EW INDIGO WAY@8-1-1ST=6 POINTS RETURNED(42.38)

BALANCE=42.38 POINTS

STARTING BALANCE=40 POINTS.

Made a complete mess of two selections today. I saw a lovely ten runner race with an odds on fav and a 2nd a 3rd fav with great chances at 9-2 in the 155.

I placed the bets and then three non runners later it's just an ew first two race.

I guess i'll need another 1-2 like yesterday then!

Selections today:


BALANCE=42.38 POINTS

STARTING BALANCE=40 POINTS.

155 HUNT- 0.5 PT EW ABERDALE@9-2 (41.38)

                 0.5 PT EW QUENTIN COLLONGES@9-2 (40.38)

EDIT- Added a couple more:

230 HUN- 0.5 PT EW HOBACK JUNCTION@7-2 (39.38)

405 HUNT- 0.5 PT EW SONIC JUNCTION@10-1 (38.38)

BALANCE= 38.38 POINTS.

Not exactly a great day but i blame the abundance of non runners, including my own!



BALANCE=38.38 POINTS

STARTING BALANCE=40 POINTS.

155 HUNT- 0.5 PT EW ABERDALE@9-2 -2ND=1.06 PTS RETURNED(39.44)

                 0.5 PT EW QUENTIN COLLONGES@9-2-LOST (39.44)

230 HUN- 0.5 PT EW HOBACK JUNCTION@7-2-3RD=0.85 PTS RETURNED (40.29)

405 HUNT- 0.5 PT EW SONIC JUNCTION@10-1 (41.29)-NON RUNNER

BALANCE= 41.29 POINTS.

A few today that i hope can start the week off nicely. Happy that one is a 1 pointer, i just pray for no non runners as it's an 8 runner race.

BALANCE=41.29 POINTS.

110 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW HYGROVE GAL@3-1 (40.29)

                  0.5 PT EW CRYSTALLUS@10-1 (39.29)

120 PLUMP- 1PT EW HILL FORTS GLORIA@3-1 (37.29)


BALANCE=37.29 POINTS.

STARTING BALANCE=40 POINTS.

Yucky start to the day.

Result:

BALANCE=37.29.

110 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW HYGROVE GAL@3-1-LOST (37.29)

                  0.5 PT EW CRYSTALLUS@10-1- LOST (37.29)

BALANCE=37.29 POINTS.

The next selection is now into 13-8, hopefully it will run as well as the market suggests.

FML.

The selection was cruising a couple out looking the winner. Then it just ran out of gas and despite being 1.03 in running to place finished 4th.

Result:

BALANCE=37.29.

120 PLUMP- 1PT EW HILL FORTS GLORIA@3-1-LOST (37.29)

BALANCE=37.29 POINTS.

Been debating getting involved in the next at wolves, can't resist it as a couple have kinda got strong/turned dirty on betfair.

Thus:

BALANCE=37.29.

140 WOLVES- 0.5 PT EW LADY KILDARE@11-2 (36.29)

                     0.5 PT EW LADY MANGO@9-2 (35.29)

BALANCE=35.29 POINTS.

Meh meh meh!

2nd and 3rd behind another pesky odds on fav.

RESULT:

BALANCE=35.29.

140 WOLVES- 0.5 PT EW LADY KILDARE@11-2-2ND=1.05 PTS RETURNED (36.34)

                     0.5 PT EW LADY MANGO@9-2-3RD=0.95 PTS RETURNED (37.29)

BALANCE=37.29 POINTS.

Nothing massively exciting today but nonetheless 4 selections.


BALANCE=37.29 points


135 EXETER 0.5 PT EW MADISON DU BERLAIS@3-1 (36.29)

                    0.5 PT EW GEORGE NYMPTON@7-2 (35.29)

205 EXETER 0.5 PT EW SILVER ROGUE@12-1 (34.29)

435 EXETER 0.5 PT EW JOIN TOGETHER@4-1 (33.29)


BALANCE=33.29 points

Nico, if you had say a bank of £1,000, after a month what figure would you be 'happy' with doing this?  What sort of expectancy do you as such?

A very good question but kind of hard for me to answer.

Basically i've done these types of bets for years and ive done more than all right out of them.

The fact that bookies close your account if you do too many of them says a lot imo.

But i can't be sure of the profit as i never kept records nor really had a staking plan.

Now i do on both counts.

Right now this has been very yoyo like.

Thus until i show some consistent results i can't really say what i'd expect to make, although i guess i can say what i'd like.

If i started with a £1000 bank i'd certainly hope to double it within a month or two. Obviously as this challenge has been over 2-3 months basically i cant be happy with the results so far as im basically breaking even.

My original plan/expectancy was to turn my 40 point balance into 200 points, and that was probably with a 6 month period in mind.

But im still confident! :)

One day i will go through all these pages and work out the average price backed, the average winner's price and the average stake placed when won etc..

Sorry for a somewhat spewy reply, i'm still learning a great deal from all this.

Also on Silver Roque EW.

Garbage

Finished as if shot. :(

Bad day.

Need to learn to steer clear of maybe, possible, hmmm...type selections.

RESULTS:


BALANCE=33.29 points


135 EXETER 0.5 PT EW MADISON DU BERLAIS@3-1-2ND=0.8 PTS RETURNED (34.09)

                    0.5 PT EW GEORGE NYMPTON@7-2 -LOST(34.09)

205 EXETER 0.5 PT EW SILVER ROGUE@12-1-LOST (34.09)

435 EXETER 0.5 PT EW JOIN TOGETHER@4-1-3RD=0.9 PTS RETURNED(34.99)


BALANCE=34.99 points

Time to get this party started. Happy that i have a 1.5pt ew selection, it's filthy.

Yeah if it just places i lose in the short term on the bet as a whole, but long term i win so much from the place part of the bet, and who knows...sometimes they actually win.


BALANCE=34.99 points


125 WAR- 0.5PT EW JOLLY ROGER@7-1 (33.99)

                 0.5 PT EW DRAGONS DEN@8-1 (32.99)

220 NOTT- 1.5PT EW SAHARA KINGDOM@2-1 (29.99)

                  0.5 PT EW WEST END LAD@11-1 (28.99)

705 KEMP- 0.5 PT EW DANSIL DANCER@15-2(27.99)

BALANCE= 27.99 POINTS.


EDIT- The first race is such a good ew race i can't resist putting in another selection despite that making it 3 in the race now. It is a rarity.

This has turned strong on betfair and actually has experience unlike most of the rest.

BALANCE=27.99

125 WAR- 0.5PT EW  BIG TALK 0.5PT EW@33-1 (26.99)

BALANCE=26.99 POINTS.

Well today has not gone well.

Oh well i'll add another to the last race anyway.

Firstly the dire results so far:

BALANCE=26.99 points


125 WAR- 0.5PT EW JOLLY ROGER@7-1-3RD=1.2 PTS RETURNED (28.19)

                 0.5 PT EW DRAGONS DEN@8-1-LOST (28.19)
               
                 0.5PT EW  BIG TALK 0.5PT EW@33-1-LOST (28.19)



220 NOTT- 1.5PT EW SAHARA KINGDOM@2-1-LOST (28.19)

                  0.5 PT EW WEST END LAD@11-1-2ND=1.6 PTS RETURNED (29.79)

BALANCE= 29.79 POINTS.

Already picked:

705 KEMP- 0.5 PT EW DANSIL DANCER@15-2 (29.79)
+

                 0.5 PT EW DANSANT@8-1 (28.79)

BALANCE=28.79 POINTS.

Meh, dead heat at 11-1 bpg grntee in last rae, really thought it had won too.

Result:

BALANCE=28.79.

705 KEMP- 0.5 PT EW DANSIL DANCER@11- 1 BPG-1ST DH=4.6 PTS RETURNED (33.39)

                 0.5 PT EW DANSANT@8-1-LOST (33.39)

BALANCE=33.39 POINTS.

Today seems the return of the ew dble on the final two selections.

BALANCE=33.39 POINTS.

130 HAY- 0.5 PT EW VICO ROAD@5-1 (32.39)

-----------

350 HAY- 1 PT EW  PALACE JESTER@5-1 (30.39)

500 KEMP- 1PT EW SUNSET KITTY@4-1 +0.5 EW DBLE (27.39)

BALANCE=27.39 POINTS.

This thread is tilting me, please just ship the lot on dude! :D

Lol I agree- put a double on 2 x 6/4's to get back to normal

Nope! :) In fairness this makes me even more keen to do this.


And same! :)

Added in first race:


BALANCE=27.39

130 HAY- 0.5 PT EW KING FIGNAL@6-1 (26.39)

BALANCE=26.39 POINTS.

Not a great start, :(


130 HAY- 0.5 PT EW VICO ROAD@5-1- LOST (26.39)

                  0.5 PT EW KING FIGNAL@6-1-LOST (26.39)

BALANCE= 26.39 POINTS.

In reply to the comments that i should just ship the lot on, fair enough i can see why it might look a bit riidc all this up/down yoyo balance without ever getting into huge profit.

This is an experiment for me, it's about learning to stake properly, select properly and eventually make more money from a form of betting that i know is profitable.

So far i may have done 100 bets or so, maybe more. This is still a relatively small sample size imo and whether i was winning big or losing big it wldnt ness matter or mean much.

I'm gen enjoying it and hope that ppl don't hate the thread, i mean nobody is being forced to read my musings surely. I could put up all my sports bets which wld be a lot more varied, crazy and fun. Yet i do that for the crack, im trying to learn from these stats.

Bear with me and i might prove myself right on this.

Vent over. :)

This last selection is real dirty.

Have gone in again for another 1 pt ew at 7-2.


500 KEMP- 1PT EW SUNSET KITTY@7-2 (25.39)

Regency Girl 8.00 Kempton @ 9/2 imo

Results:

BALANCE- 25.39 POINTS.

350 HAY- 1 PT EW  PALACE JESTER@8-1 BPG-2ND=2.6 PTS RETURNED (27.99)

500 KEMP- 1PT EW SUNSET KITTY@4-1-2ND=1.8 PTS RETURNED +0.5 EW DBLE=1.7 PTS RETURNED (31.49)

500 KEMP- 1PT EW SUNSET KITTY@7-2=1.7 PTS RETURNED(33.19)

BALANCE=33.19 POINTS.

Feeling a bit down today, palace jester got beat by the more fancied owner's other runner, something stank about it.


Will take a look. :)

Bar a possible evening race which has a couple of possibilities this is it for the day.

BALANCE=33.19 POINTS.

230 SOUTH- 1 PT EW DIGGERATT@10-3 (31.19)

BALANCE=31.19 POINTS.

Winner.

RESULT:

BALANCE=31.19 POINTS.

230 SOUTH- 1 PT EW DIGGERATT@10-3-1ST=6 POINTS (37.19)

BALANCE=37.19 POINTS.

(40PT STARTING BALANCE)

Well done buddy!

Going to def be more disciplined with this from now on. Really didn't want it to become a joke thread if possible. I actually do make money from gambling believe it or not! :)

Went through a few of the stats last night, there have been 169 bets in total so far, with 26 winners including that last one.  The challenge has been bet on over 43 days and is currently just under 3 points down.

I'll be interested to see what would have been the p/l if i had done each selection win only for the points i placed.

Also will be interested to find out the average priced selection/winner and how many have placed in their respective races.

Stats ftw.

Anyway final selection of the day:

BALANCE=37.19 POINTS.

740 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW FASHIONABLE GAL@3-1 (36.19)

BALANCE=36.19 POINTS.

(40 PT STARTING BALANCE)


Cheers. :)

Result:

BALANCE=36.19 POINTS.

740 WOLV- 0.5 PT EW FASHIONABLE GAL@3-1-2ND=0.8 PTS RETURNED (36.99)

BALANCE=36.99 POINTS.

(40 PT STARTING BALANCE)


Couple of selections today including one in the breeders cup turf. Tempted to make that one a larger bet, but wld like to see how the market behaves today.

EDIT- Have now indeed made it 1 pt ew, don't want to lose out on price as feel it wil come in and v happy with the 1/4 the place odds.

There could possibly be 1 or two others later too dependant on a few variables.


BALANCE=36.99 PTS.

1235 WIN 1 PT EW THE REFORMER@7-4 (34.99)

10PM CHURCHILL- 1 PT EW BEHKBAD@11-4 (32.99)

BALANCE=32.99 PTS.


(40 PT STARTING BALANCE)

BALANCE=32.99.

RESULTS:


1235 WIN 1 PT EW THE REFORMER@7-4 -2ND=1.35 PTS RETURNED(34.34)

10PM CHURCHILL- 1 PT EW BEHKBAD@11-4-LOST (34.34)

BALANCE=34.34 PTS.

(40 PT STARTING BALANCE)

Certainly not a great day yesterday. The american selection came 3rd but due to the fav withdrawing it became a first 2 race.

Just one fancy today.

BALANCE=34.34 PTS.

110 FFOS LAS- 0.5 PT EW ODDJOB@5-1 (33.34)

BALANCE=33.34 PTS.

Win or lose my last day doing this 4 a while, need to concentrate on the poker.

Also still not gone thru all my stats and if im so lazy no wonder this is losing.

Hope to go out in blaze of glory b4 returning in a month or two.

BALANCE=34.44 PTS.

(STARTING BALANCE=34.44)

210 TAUNTON- 0.5 PT EW BEN CHORLEY@11-2 (33.44)

                        0.5 PT EW AINES DELIGHT@8-1 (32.44)

230 LUDLOW- 0.5PT EW SPOCK@11-4 (31.44)

320 SOUTH- 0.5 PT EW PLENTY OTOOLE@5-1 (30.44)

+ 2X 0.25 PT EW TREBLE (29.44)

 5X 0.25 PT EW DBLES (26.94)

STARTING BALANCE 40 PTS

Never b4 have 3 worse horses run in this world. Obviously this is tilt and annoyance and out goes the staking plan for a large get me out of it increase in stakage for my final selection for a while!!


RESULTS SO FAR- ALL 3+ MULTIPLES LOST.

BALANCE=26.44

So now in the final race:

320 SOUTH- 0.5 PT EW PLENTY OTOOLE@5-1 (26.44)- ALREADY SELECTED

+

320 SOUTH- 2.5 PT EW PLENTY OTOOLE@9-2 (21.44)

Not quite the mass lump it all on some wanted, even on tilt i'm cautious! :)

Long time since I've seen three cracking ew races on one card.

Sedgefield 2.10, 3.10 and 4.45.

Trixies and patents ftw.

Fwiw I've had 2 ew trixies:

Veluga 9/1 2.10

Maggio 3/1 and Lesanda 8/1 3.10

Beat The Band 8/1 4.45

Veluga has taken a huge walk on betfair in the last 15 minutes :(

Lamps is probably a safer selection in that race now.

Lesanda certainly looks a good bet. Course and distance winner on heavy.

wow now 20/1 on betfair.........but something has to come 3rd!

Don't worry ppl, this aint coming back, in fact it might be my last flurry of ew bets bar chelts for a long while.

Just think today has 3 lovely selections and im gonna try and bust the bank.

So here we go:

Balance=21.44 points.

410 Leicster-2pts ew Not so prudent@3-1

455 Lin- 2pts ew Queen of the desert@9-4

535 ffos las- 2pts ew bathwick brave@2-1

+1pt ew dbles(6 lines)

+1.72pt ew treble

Balance=0 pts.

LOL!

The 410 race has now become a 4 runner race meaning it's only win only and thus all bets involving that selection become that.

Exactly the reason these bets need to be placed at last minute, not half an hour ago.

Fml.

But win it all anyways ffs.

Meh!

Ok so mixed bag-one winner, one place and one fell.

Results:

410 Leicster-2pts ew Not so prudent@3-1-fell

455 Lin- 2pts ew Queen of the desert@9-4-won@5-2 bpg=10.25 pts returned

535 ffos las- 2pts ew bathwick brave@2-1-3rd@9-4 bpg=2.9pts returned

+1pt ew dbles(6 lines)-2.36pts returned

+1.72pt ew treble-lost

Balance=15.51pts.

Oh well few points to throw on over chelts.

Didn't bother with this over cheltenham as just had far too many bets to concentrate on dirty ew shots, and it was more of a laugh than mega serious.

For the grand national meeting i'm mega serious about either busting this bank or pushing it up nearer the heights i expected from this challenge.

Anyways two selections both by far best price with lads tmrw at 1/4 the odds and slight arbs on betfair, very slight. Big place value on both, with seemingly just two odds on shots respectively to worry about, unfort one of em is big bucks.

Balance=15.51pts.

200 AINTREE- 1PT EW GRANDS CRUS@4-1

230 AINTREE- 1PT EW GRANDOET@4-1

0.25 EW DOUBLE

Balance-11.01 pts. (40 pts starting bank)

Was reading an article about Zarkander. The horse is temprementally unsound, bordering on untrainable at times.

Definitely not one to be backing at odds on, I think Grandoet is great value at 4s ew.

I've waded in on Grandouet EW @ 4/1.

Not bothering with Grand Crus, not sure it can beat Big Bucks, think Carlito Brigante is a credible danger and you get the often good run from Sentry Duty, Karabak, Kyber Kim et al.

We like Turko for the Foxhunters too.

Big bucks is amazing, wonderful performance.

omg so sick

So so sick, pretty sure grandouet either wins that or goes mega close.

Tough beat on Grandouet. Any thoughts on Denman anyone? Took 7/1 on the Nicholls Ruby treble.
Thought about opposing Denman as it gave a lot in the GC but didn't see a lot to take it on.

Punchestowns unless Geraghty decides to jump up a dogs arse at the last when cruising. Give it some breathing space ffs.

Seething.

My instinct was that denman was too short and was/am tempted to lay it. Thus id advise laying some off, but i havent really done huge research in2 the race. Guess it depends how much the potential win matters etc to you.

Not going to lay it off. It's not for milions and I've been struck down with Denmania again. Go on The Tank.

race started yet? in betting shop in Watford and had power cut

Lol 50k on?

Race started

Sigh

Results, meh.

200 AINTREE- 1PT EW GRANDS CRUS@4-1-2ND=2 PTS RETURNED

230 AINTREE- 1PT EW GRANDOET@4-1=FELL

0.25 EW DOUBLE=LOST

Balance-13.01 pts

LMAO.  You see boys and girls being a professional gambler isn't all birds and bubbly in Stringfellows, flying first class and eating sushi at Umu, sometimes you end up in a betting shop in Watford surrounded by people discussing the merits of special brew versus Tennants Super with no TV's or lights.

You are aware he said this due to the beeb saying some punter in watford placed a 50k bet in hills just b4 the off??!!

20k mate, double on Zarkandar/Big Bucks (i forget which) and Denman to return £71k.

That was the first bet they kept waxing lyrical about, then just b4 the off in the denman race they went on about this 50k bet on denman placed in a watford hills. God beeb coverage is terrible, richard pitman is atrocious, claire balding a giggling buffon, and john parrot shld just stick to the snooker. Kinda regretting cancelling racing uk now!

Might as well do my best to bust or break this bank free.

Balance-13.01 pts (Started 40 Pts)

Selections.

335 Wolv- 0.5 pt ew Wishformore@9-2 (5 runners-so first 2 ew only) BPG

755 Chep-1 pt ew Behindcloseddoors@7-2 BPG

0.5 pt ew double

Balance=10.01 points.

First race is a typical pleasssssssssssssse don't drop one out as it will be win only. Thus if yr not a degen gambler like me id normally just get that on b4 the off. The selection is consistent and bar the fav dsnt have much to beat, it's a 1.76 shot to place -comish on betfair, yet wiith 9-2 you get 2.125.

Second one really looks to have a good chance in an ideal filthy ew race-with 11 runners, a vulnerable looking odds on shot and lotsa rags.

Results from yday:

335 Wolv- 0.5 pt ew Wishformore@9-2 (5 runners-so first 2 ew only) BPG- 2ND@6-1 BPG=1.25 POINTS RETURNED

755 Chep-1 pt ew Behindcloseddoors@7-2 BPG-LOST

0.5 pt ew double-LOST

Balance=11.26 points.

Today surely this is a freeroll on the win?? Shame its frankel its facing, but feeling part of the favs price is due to hype.

310 new- 1pt ew strong suit@9-2 (first 2 places)

Balance=9.26 points.

Balance=9.26 points.

I shall def bust this balance!

Thing is the bookies supposedly don't like these bets, yet at -31 points down im beginning to dislike them too!

Anyway missed a cple of dirty races today where both selections won, thats how i run, lets now bet on the race where the fav will scoot it.

635 newcastle is the race and it is an absloot filthy dirty ew race. Rags aplenty and an odds on fav whos far from certain to take this down.

Ladbrokes go 3 points bigger on my first selection than anyone else, and its bpg with them too, about 10-11 to place on betfair, u get 12/5 with them on the place side.

Also the second fav looks a cert to be up and at em so have dutched em.

635 new-

1 point ew taste the victory@12-1 bpg-LOST

1 point ew danadana@15-8 bpg-WON@1/4 ODDS EW-PAID 4.34 POINTS

Balance=9.6 points

Ok this seems the day to bust or boom this balance.

Balance=9.6 points

This first and third races looks perfect types for ew betting, being second favs miles clear of the rest of the field in the betting, strong on betfair etc etc

Second race i'm praying for no withdrawls as first 3 will become first two. Kato star could be underpriced here and this gives lots of place value elsewhere. The selection i've picked is strong on betfair and i managed to sneak the value on the horse.


210 SOUTH- 2 PTS EW  CALAF@11-4 bpg-LOST

530 PUN- 0.5PT EW RARE BOB@33-1 bpg (1/4 odds ew)-3RD=9.25 POINTS RETURNED

550 SED- 2PTSEW HOBSONS BAY@4-1 bpg-3RD=3.6 PTS RETURNED-PRESSED THIS ORIGINAL 1PT EW BET FROM RARE BOB RETURNS

1.3PTS EW DOUBLE CALAF&HOBSON'S BAY bpg-LOST

Balance=10.85pts.

Wiiii. Only just checked my account this morning, nice lil bink in there. i was on @ 28 Tks.

Np, it got lucky though, was 4th with 1 to jump and the leader who prob went 1.01 in running fell when clear-basically kept this challenge alive. Glad to help tho! :)

Ok still going for boom or bust on this balance. Feeling i'll either go broke or be getting the champers in tonight.

Like em all to varying degrees, the 2pt ew one is obv the strongest, all are strong tho, even an arb in one case on betfair with lovely place value all round. Gonna use it this time....one time please!! :)

Balance=10.85 points(starting bank 40 points)

605 PUN- 1PT EW FIRST LIEUTENANT@2-1 BPG (FIRST 2 EW 1/4 ODDS)-LOST

625 ASCOT-1PT EW PARVANA@4- 1BPG-LOST

815 HAM-2PTS EW LOUIS THE PIOUS@9-4 BPG-1ST=9.4 POINTS RETURNED

0.35 PT EW TRIXIE-LOST

Balance=9.4 PTS.

EDIT-Meh no champers nor brokeness, ahhhhhhh well best get the lot next time, :)

Really want to risk the entire balance each time when betting now, but that would be kinda insane, esp when today really dsnt look that amazing for ew betting.

Still i like a couple and have backed such. Both are 2nd favs, the first has beaten the odds on shot b4, hopefully it's progressed as well but still placewise looks a steal, the second selection has surely only the fav to beat, tho that won't be easy.

BALANCE=9.4 POINTS.

210 LIN- 0.5PT EW DENVER DREAM@11-2BPG-lost

215 HEX 0.5 PT EW GIN COBBLER@3-1BPG-lost

0.2PTS EW DOUBLE-lost

BALANCE=7 POINTS.

Missed a good chance to bust the roll.  :)

Tony mccoy on a newcomer that has been bkd today.Good enough for me, also strong place wise on bf.

Balance=7pts.

830 TOW- 3PTS EW BENNY'S WELL@5-2BPG

                   0.5PT EW MONKEY MILAN@6-1BPG

Balance=0pts.

Edit- Pressed as 5-2 was still avail while it was 9-4 on betfair, winnnnnnnn it.

Double edit-lets bust or boost this balance. Added another strong selection in the race and pressed again on mccoy!!

MEH! 1st and 2nd but not in the order i wanted, atrocious bet sizing from me there, almost like an old school player 5x opening with jacks.

Result:



830 TOW- 3PTS EW BENNY'S WELL@5-2BPG=2nd@11-4bpg=4.65 points returned

                   0.5PT EW MONKEY MILAN@6-1BPG=1st=4.6 points returned

Balance=9.25 points.

Time to bust it again!

Kinda kidding as this is really money i'm wagering and it's not pennies.

I'd just like to see it go one way or the other i guess.

First race the pick is very strong on the place part and i almost get double the place value here, the second race has 3 detached from the field in terms of price, and hopefully as far as my two go, also in terms of class.

Ok so here goes:

615 sed- 1.5 pts ew Takaatuff@11-4bpg-PLACED=2.33 POINTS RETURNED

715 sed- 1pt ew Call me mulligan@7-2bpg-LOST

               1pt ew Loudon@4-1bpg-2ND=1.8 POINTS RETURNED

2x 0.5625pts ew doubles bpg=1.57 POINTS RETURNED

Balance=5 9 POINTS.

Ok so here's how this will go, if the balance is under 10pts i'll more or less max it each betting day till i get dble figs again. Even then i might start on the ew doubles and trebles then to really try and soar in2 the skies.

Agree backing 3 in a race is normally the quick way to the poor house, but it's the only race i like today, it's a perfect dirty ew race with a vulnerable fav and 2 nice prices.

750 KEMPTON- 1.5 PTS EW MULAQEN@11-4

                         1PT EW CLARION CALL@16-1

                         0.45 PT EW KYLLACHY SPIRIT@10-1BPG

BALANCE=0

Do you still play the pokerz dom?

Poker is my job mate, betting is much more fun, luckily i make some money on the former to lose on the latter.

Try as i might i just cant quite seem to bust this!

Result:

750 KEMPTON- 1.5 PTS EW MULAQEN@11-4-1st=7.95 points returned

                         1PT EW CLARION CALL@16-1-lost

                         0.45 PT EW KYLLACHY SPIRIT@11-1BPG-3rd=1.44 points returned.

Balance=9.39 points.

Already looks like im going against the jam all in if under 10pt rule, if poss ill do so, but its still real cash and it aint always easy to get on at the right price and tbh bar the selection it dsnt look like there is much on today. Really like the selection tho, the second fav it is well adrift of the rest of the field in the betting bar obv the fav. It looks to have every chance and is a place steal with lads at 1/4 the odds bpg.

Balance=9.39 points.

335 YORK- 2PTS EW MARGOT DID@11-4bpg-LOST-Thanks hayley for a terrible ride, almost brought the horse down and still shlda taken 3rd-bird jockeys-meh.

Balance=5.39 points.

Here we go, 2 today in same race, an absolute filther of an ew race. Main selection has a great trainer, nice profile, sweet place value and every chance of winning this. Minor choice was far bigger at 8's with one bookie compared to general 6-1 and is expected to chase the top 2 home, but still has applecart claims.

BALANCE=5.39 POINTS.

725 HAMILTON

2 PTS EW ABDICATE@5-2BPG-2ND@7-2 BPG 3.4PTS RETURNED

0.695 PTS EW AL BURKAAN@8-1=3RD=1.81 PTS RETURNED

BALANCE=5.21 PTS.

BALANCE=5.21 PTS.

700 WIN

1PT EW GETCARTER@4-1 BPG-lost

BALANCE=3.21

Terrible terrible ride and shlda clda got 3rd but cba.

Prob one to watch in future, hope hughes isnt on it.

Almost busted it!

315 South

0.5 pt ew cobo boy@5-1bpg-lost


505 hay

0.5pt ew nuzool@25-1bpg-lost


550 san

0.6pts ew huma bird@9-4-lost

Balance=0 pts.


Cld be busto time!!

Not sure of your selection criteria but why Nuzool in the 505 rather than Sunday Bess??

Good qstn. Criteria is mainly based around betfair.

Think the fav is a pretty tough one to beat, my selection is almost five times the price of sunday, and getting 5-1 the place on something that is 5-2 on betfair, seems more attractive in this case than the evens/1-2 for sunday.

Im looking at a 2-1 winner if it places compared to a money back chance for sunday, obv with both freerolling the win.

Its more about the place value than the win price in such a race for me.

Hopefully the added trip should also suit nuzool, and i guess as the challenge comes to an end i might as well go 4 the world a bit more.

Ideally id back sunday and lay off the win but as its almost twice its win part on betfair that wld be a gamble id have 2 take in running, not what this challenge was about.

I certainly wldnt put anyone off sunday and perhaps if i had more points left id back both.

wowsers sunday bess 1/3 on place market when we get evens, had to get involved outside of the challenge

fml fml fml, sunday bess went 1.12 in running tbh shocked it wasnt nearer 1.01, looked home n hosed yet somehow started darting around and let the fav win

and of crse my pick just misses third place in this challenge, but hey at least this pain is almost over, im actually glad ive got a pittance left (last bet runs in 550)

looking forward to spewing my bets anon in future without worrying about a damn challenge ive not taken seriously enough

rant over, wd 1/5 bkrs, bet u loved that sweat!

last selection lost much the way this challenge has gone-all over the place, thread done, meh a failed challenge, still weight off shoulders and all that

In conclusion, E/W betting is for mugs? :)

Nah just when in my hands mate! :)

I think the art to winning with these bets is only betting the races where there are question marks about the jolly.

I might start a thread like this instead of hijacking the ***OFFICIAL*** tips thread :-)