blonde poker forum

I am away next weekend, so can't do it. 

Need a volunteer who gets the theory, horses and can get a 3k bet on without troubling the fraud squad.  Got to be prepared to scrub Neil's and Chompy's horses and keep a straight face.

£200 for me. 

Should imagine next week will be easier.  They can't duck the 2000 guineas, and maybe tough to drop the Other group races

whats the jackpot at?

Going to be somewhere between enormous and gigantic. 

somewhere between 25 and 100 million i might put £2 on myself

Greed is bad.

I am happy to be in again for £30.
I have no idea how to get it on or pick the horses etc so don't really think I would be a candidate for anything other than adding a few quid to the pot.

I would happily volunteer but as I know nothing about it I would imagine there is someone more appropriately qualified.

There is nothing to stop a few people sharing ownership.

1) Person A collects all the money by a set date.  I am thinking Thursday to stop all the last minute admin from people sending whilst the perm is on.

2) A few people put the perm together, probably including at least the same people as this week if possible.

3) A couple of people get the numbers correct and checked on the Saturday and one of them puts the bet on.  I was up late on Friday with the admin and then trying to finalise the perm.  When you are feeling a bit tired it is a bit of a worry trying to make sure every number is correct for the perm on a Saturday morning when you are sat with a 2 year old.  Getting the admin right by Thursday will certainly make it easier.

I'd prefer to give 1 a miss.

I don't mind taking part in 2.  We are at Centerparcs, and will probably have a bit of time after the kids go to sleep, assuming the internet is half bearable (no guarantee).  If nothing else, I could brief on strategy.

I can't really do 3.  Phone/Internet signals are ropey there at best and am sure the kids will much rather be swimming/hitting the playgrounds than waitimg for Daddy to get a perm perfect, and following him round the site trying to get a phone signal strong enough to be sure a bookie has a chance of hearing me perfectly.  I am sure I'd be happier with the kids too.  (Fk the kids at 2000 Guineas time, just in case I appear soft here).

Even though there is always a high chance you are going to miss the first race, it is still bound to be a +EV bet if you get close to a good strategy (Redarmi posted pretty much exactly what I would have posted).  And you normally get a sweat on the place part even if you miss the main.

FWIW We did allright after the first.  If it wasn't for that, we'd have binked quite a few place returns and got 1st or 2nd in the other 5.   Think we had a pretty strong team working on it, and there can't have been many stronger out there. 
 
 

I am kinda in the same position as Doobs this week.  I am travelling overnight on Weds night and then probably again for a fair bit of Friday.  If someone wanted to me to be on the end of a phone and to check the perms etc then I would happily do that if it was going to make it happen but I just won't be able to physically check all of the payments and then put the bet on etc.

I cant contribute this weekend coming at all wont have the time to either look at form or do any of the above three.

Apologies

Happy to do some picking again. Doubt we'll be straying too far from the top three or four in the betting in any race in this situation though.

Blimey, didn't realize scoop had got this big.

I obv missed last week but, if allowed would like to be involved this week, financially and input, if wanted?

It's open to all Adzy, so feel free to get involved.

It was originally suggested by redarmi, & sort of took off from there.

I think there is a will to do it again this week, but several of those who did the behind the scenes work are AWOL this week, so not sure if it will happen.

I think last week's Team were Doobs (took the payments, did the perm, & paid for the bet), redarmi who helped with the permutation logic, Lord Grumpy, who arranged a discount, & the horse pickers, were, I think, Chompy, Doobs, & horsey. There may have been others, I don't know, it was all done (very efficiently) by PM. I'm sure your input would be very welcome by all involved. If I understand things correctly, Doobs, horsey & redarmi are all unavailable to assist much this weekend.

Anyone know if we are running this again at the weekend?

It depends if we can find a team to organise and run it - see my previous post. It is very time intensive, and only a limited number of Members have the time, know-how, and of course trust level necessary to handle up to £3k or more.

What exactly do people mean by being able to get the bet on? is it having big enough deposit limits on sites to get £3k online? Not having restricted betting accounts? I'd be happy to sort the money out and do admin stuff etc. but I could write what I know about horses on the back of a folded postage stamp

It would be a transfer to an independent bookmaker (neil channing knows the owner personally and he gave us a great discount on the bet).  Pretty sure no one outside of doobs has ever made a transfer to them via debit card.  A new transfer to a gambling site/company like this over £3k in value would probably get auto blocked by your bank (i know mine probably would).  There is no issue getting the bet on as its a pool bet.  You would probably just have to speak to your bank and let them know the payment was going through beforehand to avoid issues afterwards.

I have done some hefty bets in the past.  You can tell them you are doing it, but in my experience you still get computer says no every time.

A few months ago I had to make some sizeable transfers to various Blondes (brag).  I let the bank know exactly what I was doing and did them one day at a time to try and get round it.  Each day the anti fraud computer rang me up. 

It isn't such a bad thing, guess one day I'd want them to stop the real fraudster and I am not too bothered they do it.  Better that than blocking your cards which is an absolute ball ache when it happens. 

FWIW when a real fraudster used my account to buy £1500 of art/posters over 3 days it was only luck that I spotted it myself.  Computer said yes, even though the paperwork was for someone with a different name in a different Country.   Guess fraudsters are normally tricky so and sos, and they ring the bank first and  mimic your normal spending patterns.  They wouldn't ever use a false name to buy a bunch of shit in a foreign country the like of which I haven't bought in 20 years.   The fact my fraudster was a complete fkwit obviously bamboozled the computer. 

Ok, only other thing is that I won't be around on friday evening so it would have to be all sorted before then with a hard deadline of thursday afternoon to get all the money to me so if can get a shrewdie to sort out the selections before then I'll put myself forward for that.

I don't post on the betting forum much at all but have handled over £100k of stakes and transfers for blondes with no problems if people are happy for me to do it.

Sure i would speak for most on here to say i would be more than happy for you to collect the cash.  Pretty sure everyone knows you Dan and trusts you.  The horse wizards will be making the selections like last week behind closed doors.

I'm happy.

+1 for Dan.  Thursday is a washout for me too, as I'd forgotten I had something on, so couldn't have done the collection even if I had the energy.  

I would have no problem at all with Dan being the money transfer man.

And the coup is on    ;karabiner;


Top man Dan!

Good lad Dan, in for a nifty.

We still need someone to put the bet on.  Put me down for 200. 

£200 for me.  I will ask around the others i put on for last week to reduce the admin if they want the same investment.  To make life as easy as possible for Dan if mates on here could sort the cash out between themselves and reduce the number of bank transfers Dan has to deal with it would make it easier wherever possible.

^^

In for £100 please.

In for £50 will you be taking stars transfers Dan

50 quid pls

A nitty macaroni(£25) for me please.

50 pls

cheers for collecting Dan

Got not idea what this is but I like a punt.  £100.  PM me bank deets.  TY

Im not around as said but £25 please as it would kill me to miss it the week we got the lot

cheers

Dan as soon as you're happy to receive money post itt. I can send to your stars account and will confirm via PM.

will be in for 20 again

thanks for organising

Once we've got someone that can definitely sort the selections out I can send details, stars or bank xfers are fine

Dan,

I will start a fresh thread in the morning, otherwise this is going to get messy. You are better off with a clean sheet, so you know where you are.

I will get Tighty, or another Mod, to split off the stuff for this week, then we will close this thread, to avoid confusion.

Can I not just do it with a debit card over the phone with Neil's bookie if I give the bank a ring first and get them to temporarily lift the restrictions? Done that for similar size deposits on smaller poker sites and they went through fine

In for a hundo and will stick up some thoughts on the races here on Friday.

can i join this?

Anyone can join, Chris. Bring us some of your run-good though, right?

Hopefully

'Bet of the century'

 ;bigadz;

Dr Channing

Mr Value Pie

Will be helping us win the mirrions with their selections!

In for a £100 please, ideally I'll send to someone's Stars if possible as international bank transfers can be awkward...
And thanks Dan for taking on the organisational burden.

in for £30 please. i belive i have your bank details but please confirm by pm.
thanks

In for £50. Same as last week.

This.

ok, deal. in for £200

In for £20 pls

Bank dets pls

pm bank deets plz

Dan,

I've started this new thread to avoid confusion & overlap between this weeks & last week's one.

in for £30. Could you PM bank details please. Many thanks for doing it

Dan,

I've listed below everyone who has so far asked for a slice of action, with the amounts alongside, & added myself, too.  


Doobs £200

Junior Senior £30

EdGascoigne £50

Arbboy £500 (includes £150 for redarmi, £100 for Matt Lewis, aka "cutefish", & £50 for Gary Strang, "rotty1964")

Eso Kral £50

a. sparrow £100

tentwowilldo £50

George2Loose £50

deepreacher £50

Karabiner £25

Ripple11 £50

Scotty77 £100 (will send £125, to include Big-D)

horseplayer £25

muckthenuts £50

Matl Vinegar £20

Chompy £100

kpnuts £100

cheapwetsuit £50

youthnkzR £50

NigDawG £200

Omm £20

millidonk £50

tikay £25

byronkincaid £30

Simon Galloway £50

RickBFA £130


Big D £25 (payment to be made by Scotty77)

Tomsom87 £50

Red Fox £50

Claypole £50

Thewy "a grand"

Bumped for reference.

Monies to be paid to Dan by THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

I am paying via Chompy as i wont be around Thursday onwards (possibly)

Am sending Chompy the £25 in next 24 hours

Thanks

The following suggested they wanted in, but have not, as far as I can see, specified amounts......


ironside

Adzy

Aaron

Marky-Mark-Mark

muckthenuts

Redarmi will be playing again via myself paying for him as he has bank card issues currently.  Unconfirmed amount but i would imagine it will be the same as last week £150.  Matt Lewis (cutefish) on blonde is confirmed for £100 again me paying on his behalf. Still trying to contact Gary Strang who i put on for last week.  Adjust me to £450 on the list please.

It will hopefully be a bit easier to collect the money if Dan can see the references.  Not been able to see them made the job so much tougher. 

I just checked my account this morning and, as part if what I can imagine is some big wind up, the co-op are now showing references for everyone. 

What a redic rub doobs!

Those of you that want to send on Stars can do so now to Raziel2689 (Feathers McGraw avatar)

Please either post here or PM me with your stars name. I'll send PMs in a sec to those that want bank transfers. Deadline for money is 6pm Thursday, anything after that will be sent back. Gl us

In for £50 pls

Done, list amended as above.

Have added you to the list on Page 4, Mr G, just so Dan can easier see what is what.

Are your Bank Deets the same as they were in 2012, Dan, when I had some WSOP action?

If so, I have them & will send when you confirm.

Dont usually do Spam but....

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63665.0

If you fancy having another punt on a well run comp by Scotty no greyhound knowledge required hence why i have entered :)

Ty Mr K, PM and £ sent.

In for £120 please. Can you PM your bank details please Dan and I'll send cash over.

Thanks

Added to list on Page 4.

Il be in for £100 please via bank transfer if you could pm me your details.  Thanks.

Sorry to mess you around Gary Strang (rotty1964 blonde) wants £50 i will pay for him as well so adjust my total to £500 please.

Yes they're the same Tikay, thanks for sorting the new thread.

List on Page 4 updated.

Dan,

Sorry to mess up Tikay's summary.

Please amend my payment to £130.

£130 sent to bank.

Thanks.

Simon Galloway and RickBFA both received

I'm going through PMing everyone in the thread from the start but just hit the 15/hour limit so more going out later. I have a note of who I've PMd and who I haven't so don't worry if you haven't got one yet.

Edit: received from Ed Gascoigne too

Not a prob, list amended.

No need to PM me Dan, have sent my £25 by Bank TX, the reference (don't ask) is "Dan Morgan "WPT"

In for £25 please.

Scotty77 will send on my behalf Dan and will send both our shares to you on stars tonight mate.

Thanks for sorting Dan.

Awkward sod.

List amended.

Sent money and confirmed via PM, in for £50 again :)

Ill have another £50.  Will send from tomsom87 on stars in a bit.

In for £50 please.

Pm with bank details please.

Again thanks to Dan and all who help.

Payment made Dan.  ARBBOY scoop6 is reference.  £500 break down as follows:

£200 me
£150 redarmi
£100 cutefish - M lewis
£50 rotty1964 - G Strang

We officially have a shiny spreadsheet to keep up to date with who has been PMd and who has paid

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybngyXmYlrOKFnfUWSbtuTwf95XmUlWsbH6CiMcUM9s/edit?usp=sharing

It is all up to date as of RedFox's post above and I'll update as the posts/PMs/monies come in. If you think its incorrect, let me know please. I have another one noting your stars name/bank xfer references but obv going to keep that one private. A new round of PMs going out now for those who haven't had one yet.

I have also PMd Neil, hopefully he can sort us out with the same bookie as last time with a chunky discount

Got it, for ease I've just put it all down as arbboy for 500

Also, may have been lost in the thread somewhere but the deadline for payment is 6pm Thursday, if you want in after that you'll have to sort out a %age of someone elses action, no more new entrants after that.

I am in for £50 Dan - let me have details

Have we agreed who is picking the nags?  Think we need someone to do a first draft as Doobs/Horsey did and then a few people to refine from the Chompy / Red / Big Adz / type crew in Doobs absence.

Thats fine dan.  ty for sorting it out.  Much appreciated.

can you stick us down for a grand pls dan, will bank transfer once you've pm'd details,

many tx

WTF?

You do know how much a grand is, right?

that'd be a grand total of £50

pretty obvious no?

That anti-fraud computer is going to be overheating on Saturday.  

Dan, I've sent you another £25, to pay for Karabiner, who has paid me direct. 

FFS.

Amateur itt.

Updated list......


Doobs £200

Junior Senior £30

EdGascoigne £50

Arbboy £500 (includes £150 for redarmi, £100 for Matt Lewis, aka "cutefish", & £50 for Gary Strang, "rotty1964")

Eso Kral £50

a. sparrow £100

tentwowilldo £50

George2Loose £50

deepreacher £50

Karabiner £25

Ripple11 £50

Scotty77 £100 (will send £125, to include Big-D)

horseplayer £25

muckthenuts £50

Matl Vinegar £20

Chompy £100

kpnuts £100

cheapwetsuit £50

youthnkzR £50

NigDawG £200

Omm £20

millidonk £50

tikay £25

byronkincaid £30

Simon Galloway £50

RickBFA £130


Big D £25 (payment to be made by Scotty77)

Tomsom87 £50

Red Fox £50

Claypole £50

Thewy £50

Maldini32 £20

Jamier-Host £50

youthnkrZ £50

Lee H £100

These chops have said they want in, but have yet to confirm, as far as I am aware.....



Adzy

Aaron

Marky-Mark-Mark

Hi mate stick me down for £20.

nope not in thanks though

Sorry. Will be in, but also involved in two others. Waiting to see what agreed stakes are in others before confirm here, will be 50 or hundo tho, confirm later tonite.

tx for sorting dan,

50 sent, ref 'julian scoop6'

Was loving the balla'ness of this.  Shame it's been reduced to £50!

£50 again for me please.

£50 again please

Amateur! Everyone knows 50 quid is a pony right?!

P.s. How can we lose now we have an EPT champ and all round run good hero on the team?

£50 sent with ref Eso

Thx for this Dan!

in for £100

PM bank details please and I'll send.

ta

Shipped £50 to bank, ref: millidonk.

Let's get past the first race 1 tiiiiiiiiiiiiiiime.

Dan,

The Updated List, up to & including LeeH, (2.25pm) is on Page 7.

Sent £50

ref ; ripple11

In please for 25 squid. PM bank deets so I can ship over today, thanks.

My great great granddad Tikay can vouch for me being a good payer....not player, obv.

Winnings will help me fund his vegas package! <<< Spam?

*edit to £25

In for £50 again please.

Its all on the spreadsheet tony but if you want to keep updating the one in the thread that'd be useful for reference after the deadline to make sure we've got everything tallied up correctly.

Everyone PMd and paymens updated here. Give me a shout if you think you've paid and I haven't marked you as such on the spreadsheet

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybngyXmYlrOKFnfUWSbtuTwf95XmUlWsbH6CiMcUM9s/edit?usp=sharing

Sent £50

ref McGlashan scoop6

Sent by bank transfer. (£25)

REF - KNOTTIKAY SCOOP 6

£50 sent by bank transfer. Reference is CHEAPWETSUIT SCOOP. Top man, Dan.

£30 sent. Reference Junior Scoop6

Money and pm sent

All up to date with payments, if you've paid and yout column isn't green let me know

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybngyXmYlrOKFnfUWSbtuTwf95XmUlWsbH6CiMcUM9s/edit?usp=sharing

Got me down as 20......should be 25.

Cheers

Sorted, ty

Done

50 pls

£50 please

In for £50.

Will send on Stars tomorrow.

£100 sent, reference a.sparrow scoop6, thanks again!

In for £20

Will ship tomorrow.

$121.81 (£100 on xe.com) shipped on Stars from killerkp.
Cheers Dan & GL us!

this is way short.

$168.2079 according to my xe.com app for £100 fyi

Yep I think you've misclicked the euro rate there

well spotted did $ to € conversion first time, thanks BTR.
Another $47 sent now. Total $168.81 gone through now => £100.

no problem just didnt want any confusion:)

£25 sent to Chompy to cover my £25 he has sent

thanks

Sent £125 on stars to cover mine (£100) and Big D (£25).

Cheers

Sent $84.07  from nhggwtf thanks for doing this

Count me in for £150.

Please can you send me bank details/ pokerstars name?

Cheers!

$84.19 sent stars Dan

Thanks alot for organising, top effort

£150 sent via bank transfer, thanks for sorting it

I have a transfer from A Collins that doesn't line up with any posts/PMs. Can Mr Collins PM me with how much he sent please? Reference on it didn't come through.

Everyone else is confirmed, updated spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybngyXmYlrOKFnfUWSbtuTwf95XmUlWsbH6CiMcUM9s/edit?usp=sharing

Was me mate. £50.

Cheers, all sorted

shipped £20 from P4K3R Face on stars.

Also for all you punters, greyhound competition ran by scotty no skills needed just punting

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63665.0 (http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63665.0)

sent to your bank

£100 ref 'Lee H scoop6'

Good luck

Hi Dan,

I dropped you a PM yesterday.

You've got me on the spreadsheet as £120.

I sent £130 as per my post on here.

Would you amend the spreadsheet.

Thanks again.

Reminder.

Hi, would like £100, can someone pm me details for payment which i will make this morning thanks, Sean.

Hi Dan.

Can you please PM me your Mobile No and I can ship the funds from my Phone.

Im away with work and cant get near a PC.

Alternatively if someone can ship Dan the £20 on my behalf I will sort it on Friday.

Many Thanks.

Dan,

We have a late entry, new Member "Strike-Force". (Neil Strike)

Bit of a struggle for him to sort the money & details out in time, so I am sending £100 now on his behalf, & he will pay me.

Can you confirm this is acceptable & he is on-board?

Thanks.

EDIT - £100 SENT

Yep thats fine tikay, updated:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybngyXmYlrOKFnfUWSbtuTwf95XmUlWsbH6CiMcUM9s/edit#gid=0

Thanks Dan,  paid, reference BLUEACE.

Sent on Stars

Am I too late for this? If not can you PM details please.

Sent £100

Thanks

Aaaaaand we're officially closed. Couple of people still to send but with 95% of the money in we come to a grand total of £3830.

GL us :)

Sent via bank hope I've not missed it!

Nope you're in

Did I miss out Dan? Got confused by the double thread thing....in for a nifty again if I can?

Ruling!

If you can't get in Jeff you can have £50 of mine if you want.  Just post or pm to confirm before first race tomorrow and we can settle up next week at dtd.

I spoke to Dan last night, and he is OK with Jeff.

I suggested we put in a bit of extra money to get the lines up to a 3x3x4x4x4x4 perm.  Otherwise we would need 2 or 3 perms and it could have got messy if Dan hasn't done it before.  I thought it was better to keep it as simple as possible.  Will let him confirm when he is about.

Makes sense doobs.  How much more do we need for the easy 334444 perm after the discount is added back to the investment fund?

Dan and I took it, £50.04 me, he took the rest (£125).

Races easier this week, but the first and Thirsk could be better.

Race 1 : 2:05 Newmarket
Race 2 : 2:40 Newmarket
Race 3 : 3:00 Thirsk
Race 4 : 3:30 Goodwood
Race 5 : 3:40 Thirsk
Race 6 : 3:50 Newmarket

looks odds on to go this week

Could possibly go just 2 in the 2000?, that would mean we could smash 6 at one of the nastier races.   4x4x6x3x3x2 works out the same cost as 4x4x4x4x3x3.  meh, maybe just stick to the latter

All good to go on the money front, everyone is paid and confirmed. Doobs and I topped up to what would be a round number at £4055.04 which with the discount comes out at a total stake of £4608. Final numbers here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ybngyXmYlrOKFnfUWSbtuTwf95XmUlWsbH6CiMcUM9s/edit#gid=0

Just need the wizards to give me some selections on Saturday morning and we're sorted

If we can get through the first 5 legs, we might have a chance.

Bloody hell they are tough races, especially at this time of year, with so many first time out.

I think the first 3 races need as many picks as we dare, after a quick look at the fields, gets a bit easier at the end imho. First race looks a total minefield!

is it stupid to suggest just 1 in the last race (2000g)? helps us more in the harder races and if we do get to the last race judging by what everyone is saying Kingman is the one to beat. Ignore if its a stupid suggestion.

I don't think it's the best idea personally. I think it might be an idea to cut the selections to two, but definitely not one.

I think the optimum is probably two.  Don't think there is much in it.  I suspect we are probably more likely to double are number of place pools by adding Australia to kingman than adding another 3 worse donkeys to 3 better donkeys in a crapshoot.  I think the maths swings the other way if we add War Command

One point to consider is the Guineas  is the last race.

If we went into it with one horse, we could all stick in a rather large lay bet on our selection?

I would assume this would need a very hefty amount of money anyway, surely?

Does anyone present have that sort of £££ in betty or betquack?

just done a withdrawal, could currently lay about a grand of the 5 milli.  little acorns and all that.  Suspect Arbboy has got me beat these days

I probably wasnt thinking as big as u Chompy. What I am saying though is if we get through to leg 6, number of tickets are bound to be announced and the potential payout, thus giving you a chance to calculate ur potential upside and therefore cover for a few grand.

Just chucking ideas about.

Some blatant plagerism form the Trends boys that may help us with some difficult decisions.

SUFFOLK HANDICAP (2.05 Newmarket)

There have been 9 runnings of this race.

All 9 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
All 9 winners were drawn 1 -10
All 9 winners carried 8-05 or more
All 9 winners were within 5-24lbs of the bottom weight
All 9 winners were rated 86 or higher
8 of the 9 winners carried 8-05 – 9-00
8 of the 9 winners were rated 86-95
8 of the 9 winners were 4 or 5yo (plus a 7yo)
7 of the 9 winners finished in the top 4 last time out (all 21 horses who finished 3rd last time out have been beaten)
All 20 horses that were dropped in class from their previous start were beaten
All 16 horses that sported headgear were beaten
8 of the 9 winners and 24 of the 32 win and placed horses had their last run in either the previous 15 days or 6-8 months ago.

PALACE HOUSE STAKES (2.40 Newmarket)

 All of the last 15 winners had finished in the top 5 on their last run
Every winner since 1999 has been rated at least 103
Since 1979 only 1 horse has managed to win aged over 6yo

THIRSK HUNT CUP (3.40 Thirsk)

All of the last 10 winners returned 12/1 or shorter
All of the last 10 winners were aged 4-6yo
All of the last 10 winners had their last run in a handicap
All of the last 10 winners had been rested at least 11 days since their last run
9 of the last 10 winners were rated 86-92 (plus 100 rated Farrh)
All 27 horses dropping down in trip from their last run have been beaten
All 8 female runners have finished unplaced
9 of the 10 winners were drawn 6 or higher
5lb claimers have had 3 winners and 3 places from 12 rides
6 of the last 10 winners and a further 5 placed horses had their last run on the Saturday two weeks previous

Race 1 : 2:05 Newmarket

Yikes! Looks a good spot to just stick with those at the top of the market. A straight 1m1f is specialists' territory but there are no C&D winners in here and, with 19 runners, it's unlikely they'll form two groups. Big Baz has to go in imo, as I think he'll improve for having a good pace to chase. William Carrotcruncher likes him a lot, not that that's any real guide.

Race 2 : 2:40 Newmarket
Boring but Sole Power and Pearl Secret are both solid.

Race 3 : 3:00 Thirsk
This is not as strong as the race Music In The Rain won at Catterick, so he's in obv. Desert Creek was drawn away from the action last time, is fairly drawn and fairly handicapped.

Race 4 : 3:30 Goodwood
The stalls are on the stands' side (high) and, on slow ground, I'd rather be drawn near the rail and not too far off the pace. Kyleakin Lass has to go in on that basis.

Race 5 : 3:40 Thirsk
Farlow from 5 and Norse Blues from 4 for me. There's often a progressive handicapper in this but not so much this time. They'll go pretty hard I think, with Trail Blaze in 1 and a few unlikely to leave him to it, but you don't really want to get too far behind and luck IR plays a big part.

Race 6 : 3:50 Newmarket
Be happy to stick with Kingman and Australia. If we get this far, having a 7/4 and a 3/1 shot running for us makes most sense.

What do those trends throw up adzy?

As much as I don't particularly fancy Kingman and Australia (see TfT) going with just those two is clearly the route to go so we can hedge if we are in decent shape.  Pretty sure we will be able to hedge 5k or so if we need to and as anyone that has met argueboy will have been told 3 times within quarter of an hour of meeting him he is on 2% (or close) with Betfair which is optimal.

Roserrow looksthe strongest in the first.

Probably Hot Streak/Pearl Secret and Dinkum Diamond in the Sprint

Equity Risk and Multi Bene in the Hunt Cup. FWIW, I am v keen on Off Art in this. Form of the Lincoln looks rock solid and he ran as if it would bring him on. Track form too.

Of Fart looks solid enough. Not sure Equity Risk will stay, especially from stall 14.  Was fizzy on comeback from a wide draw last season.

2% days are long gone as betfair don't offer points for poker anymore.  Around the 2.5% mark now.  Happy to accommodate a £5k lay if needed on Saturday if i am around.  Not sure of my plans for Saturday afternoon yet.

Not really looked at them form wise Chomps, was just doing the trend bit.

Starting the real work now.

Best of luck with the picks guys!! ;slavedriver;

(FWIW....like the idea of just 2 nags in the last)

Think our selection team are doing a great job, I really, well done lads.

Having said that, if you need a bit of expert help, you know where I am, just say the word.

Think there's an argument for doing a second (smaller) perm and having three races with a single pick.

Race 2 Sole Power
Race 3 Music In The Rain
Race 6 Kingman

Its easy with so much at stake to end up talking yourself into the favs each race. I have tried to not fall into that that trap.

In preference order each race.

2.00
Directorship
Roserrow
Burano


2.40
Sole Power
Pearl Secret
Hot Streak

3.00
Al Muheer
Music in the rain
Desert Creek


3.30
Ajjadd
Elusivity
Kyleakin Lass


3.40
Off Art
Farlow
Multi Bene

3.50
Kingman
War Command

Not sure what rest think but first race could have 6 picks and still not get close.

gl lads with the selections.  Appreciate all the hard work.

20 sent mate as arranged. glglgl

Prob missed this but who's making the final selections?

Want me to do it?

Good luck lads

I would tend to swerve to Adz way of thinking

Very tricky to split some of mid priced animals but putting the favs in is surely not the best way?

(although it may be im just speculating)

Anyway good luck all

So you blanket pick the favs?


May as well do a single line with that thinking as every joker out there will too, no point wasting a perm on that.

Yes.

2 x 25p lines?

If we are backing the favs, then we have no chance of a decent return?

The irony is, I dont look at prices until I have made a selection and then see if it is priced accordingly, as its a permed multi, I hadnt even looked at prices.

As it happens 5 ARE favs and 4 second favs....so have I read your post wrong and you advocate backing just outsiders Horsey?

He is agreeing with you, Adz, the way I read his post.

are redarmi and doobs not around to advise on perm strategy like last week alongside the actual form study as well?  I have no idea who made the final selections last week tbh.

As I recall, they both said they were unlikely to be available to assist this weekend.

They might show up later, don't know, but am pretty sure they said that.

Reckon Mrs Adz burned his tea ;)

In for 150.  Arbboy is going to send mine with his.  In terms of strategy happy to be in and to help but I think these things are fairly straightforward.  You are trying to maximise your chances of winning so a lot of favourites etc with a couple of bigger priced wildcards that you think are good value and likely to be overlooked but still have a decent chance of winning so we are talking 14/1 shots we think should be 9/1 rather than 100/1 shots you think should be 40/1.

From last weeks scoop 6 thread on optimal strategy.  Doobs and red agreed this strat was the way to go.  Sounds like the boys are pretty much doing this anyway.

Sorry swerve meant to say sway!

Agreeing with you if its just favs only dont really see the need for the selection comm.

Soz.

First Anniversary today and getting a load of grief for having head in form book rather than being all gooey. I explained we might have plenty more anniversaries, but the Scoop might never get this big again, but it seemed to woosh her.

WP Adz.  I got my mum to invest her £2 lotto cash for the week into this instead of the lotto. 

If 4, 5 or all 6 favs cop, I bet the payout will be < SP accumulator payoff.

By all means stick a couple of solid jollies in, but surely they way this is going to be value is to find two or three big priced winners very few others do.

Forget it, I'm meddling.

Good luck guys.

Suggest the following perm as a smaller side bet.

Race 1 : Bold Sniper, Roserrow, Big Baz, Niceofyoutotellme
Race 2 : Sole Power, Pearl Secret
Race 3 : Music In The Rain
Race 4 : Pal Of The Cat, Kyleakin Lass
Race 5 : Off Art, Norse Blues, Farlow
Race 6 : Kingman

4 x 2 x 1 x 2 x 3 x 1 = 48 lines

Put it all on Sad ken

Kingsgate a solid selection Keith. Second last year. We need all the going if we gonna crack it.

Short priced horses is the way forward.  1/20^6 is much smaller than 1/10^6 AINEC.  So many people out there thinks that we have to differentiate by picking something others didn't get but we don't.  You can guess that if 6 10/1 chances come we might get less than an accumulator, but you definitely will if 6 20/1 horses come in.  A line with just two 25/1 chances in is 6 times less likely to win than the one with 2 10/1 chances in the same races.  Compound interest really screws you up on games like this one.  You need to think like a mathematician not a value better here.  

Never won this but got a 2nd in the ten to follow when it was huge .

Will try and finalise a perm taking everybody's choices on board.  

Where we definitely need help is differentiating between a bunch of horses that are 8/1 to 12/1 chances.  Getting those right wins the day.  Chompy and Neil and the like are way ahead of me there and I recognise that.  Two or three shock results get everyone but you do to win a million when you gave picked 2 33/1 chances and 4 10/1 chances you want 20 million. 

This is what Red Armi is getting at. 

This is definitely the key without having to know a thing about horse racing.  It's a 3 way combo of game theory, maths and horse racing form knowledge.

Every time I have taken notice of the SCOOP6 or Tote Jackpot when it's gotten huge, when loads of short priced horses win, the SP acca is bigger than the pool return.

It's like if the lottery numbers came out 1,2,3,47,48,49. It would pay peanuts.

Just noticed Paul Kealey, who seems to be The Man these days, is very keen on Faraaj in the first too. I would be loathe to ignore him.

You aren't saying anything I don't know.  6 faves is a bad result, but you need the favourites in the perm to pick the line with a few short ones, and a few longer ones.  We don't know right now which shorter ones will win, so we put them all in.

Anyway I am on holiday need to spend some time on the perm, not arguing the known optimal strategy.  

It's gambling.

We know all the favourites coming in is a bad result, so we decide which 2 or 3 are weakest and leave them out so we can have more selections in those races.

Seems not much like rocket science to me.

Surley if picking favs is the best way then the scoop6 would have been won before it got this big?  

Looking at the results for ths scoop races in the last few weeks they have hardly been dominated by favorites.  

Obvs I'm not involved but I am pretty sure I would rather go with good form judges picks than just bet a few at the front of the market.  

I'm only in for a measley £20 as its likely to be burning money. But we surely can't pick 6 favs & in the lottery races just for for the 8-16/1 shots that we think won't be far away.

It's a bit too late to be having this conversation now I think.

I'm just going to have a crack using my faulty method rather than Doobs optimal strategy.

In for a score :-)

i think its important to remember when we are saying 'short priced horses' here they are actually still 8/1 10/1 12/1 in the majority of these scoop 6 races.

Will there not be thousands of geeks out there doing the same thing? And if its the Optimal Strategy, that would suggest all the same horses will be picked.....or thats how this idiot reads it anyway! :D

This, I think it just isn't very clear what happened unless you looked at last week's perm. 

FWIW We left out 2 favourites at the time of doing the perm last week that we thought were weak (each of the 2 races had 5 or 6 horses around the same price).  I think we ended up with all 6 favourites, but that is just the way it goes. 

As a side issue how many perms will there be done tomorrow that are bigger than ours in size?  I have no idea was wondering what everyone thought?

Hundreds if not thousands.

I also have a ton in one at my golf club with 50 or so in it, and another nifty with ten mates. Can't imagine it's only us yokels going mad for it.

If I had £2000 to throw away on this my perm would be something like: 10x8x5x2x1x1

Much more likely to win it alone and get full value out of the bet imo.

The bigger the rollover gets the more you should include the most likely winners because every week it grows the more 'dead money' you are trying to pick off the floor.

True.

But in my experience the more favourites that win, the more chance the payoff is < than an SP acca.

If 4+ favourites win tomorrow, I would take evens the SP accumulator would pay more.

 Place it on Lucky Dan.

I'd be surprised if that wasn't deliberate.

 :kiss:

Place what on lucky dan?

About to send a pm to you and pickers 

I'll take your £50 if you don't like it. 

Cheers

http://www.metacafe.com/watch/an-kumItY427hbJmm/the_sting_1973_the_sting_part_2/

I just noticed when they are arguing about whether Paul Newman takes the bet or not, the blower falls silent.

No need to get arsey.

Just banter innit.

I don't really have time to go into much detail as I have just finished three days of travelling and have to do the football and racing cards for tomorrow but I think the analysis on the strategy here is focussing way too much on winning it alone.  There is more to the scoop than that.  For a start even if it pays less than the acca that doesn't take into consideration the ev you get from the bonus race which is a lot of where the value is.  Also it ignores the possible place returns which reduce the variance for you.  You really want to give yourself the best possible chance of getting a piece of the pie.  Whilst it would be nice to win the lot it isn't the be all of the bet in fact I would say that the fact people get preoccupied by that means that there is more value at the front of the market relatively speaking.

 Doobs and Red have, not for the 1st time, nailed it. We are doing this because there is a carry-over and a load of dead money. It is criminal to lose it by missing out an 11/4 chance because you added a 16/1 shot to try and win more. The bonus is also a really important part of the bet.

 I haven't looked at the races in any great depth so far, if I see something I think is relevant I'll mention tomorrow, but generally I thought the perm last week was great. I don't really like Kingman or Australia at the prices in the Guineas but I think for this bet 100% you take the two and no others. If you get into a hedge spot then betting the next three 1/4 123 is a great way to do that.

 I quite like having a 2nd perm for a hundred or so if the numbers work out, possibly with a slightly different attitude, but generally the reason you get these syndicates together is to give yourself the maximum chance of winning it.

 

I actually like the £100 extra bet Chompy suggested, but we adjusted the money last night to make it right.  I don't want to be complicating it now.  If it was all my own money and I was putting the bet on I would do it.

I like the hedging strategy, but is going to be tough organising the cash and getting an ok over the whole syndicate at this late stage.  I suggest it is better that people do their own hedging if we get there. 

Feel very happy to have some top brains on this investing my £30.
Cheers guys and good luck us

I'll be around from 8am tomorrow for whoever wants to PM me the final perm

I have got a near final perm, just sent out for sense checking to a few people.  Will send it you fairly early in the morning.  Got family day tomorrow.

Night all

Thanks for all your work guys, appreciate it.

Everyone's hard work in this project is greatly appreciated here.

It'd be great to have a decent sweat tomorrow.

Wouldn't it be wonderful if we all had to turn up next week for the bonus.

Was just thinking exactly the same thing.  Would be the most awesome TFT meet up ever.  I have just been sent the selections from doobs for tomorrow.  Given the discussions tonight it looks a very logical perm.  Thanks to all the selection guys for their input.  Dan for collecting all the cash and whoever is actually placing the bet tomorrow (i assume this is all in place?). glglglgl

Great work everyone agreed

Cheers to those who have been, for putting in the graft, and hopefully the celebration do will be easier to sort!

Will be strange anti-railing my antepost selections :D

Yep all in hand, gl us

Fyp ;)

Ha, you've probably backed more of their horses in the last few months than I have  :kiss:

Couldn't donate this time around lads been involved in them before an I hope it delivers another great sweat for all involved.

"Show me the money"

I've read through them discussions and understood basically none of it!  Really interesting to read though, never knew there was this much maths / work involved.  Thanks to everyone who has organised it thought, really appreciate it and hopefully we can get a sweat on whatever it is we might be sweating!

You still around Doobs?

Dan just PM'd me saying no perm yet.

Meh. Have to go out for a bit now, so here's what I suggest (no harm in posting here, as it's all the fancied runners (too much dead money in the pot to get too creative)). Dan has my number if needed:

Perm A

Race 1 - 5, 10, 11, 12, 16
Race 2 - 6, 7, 9, 11
Race 3 - 1, 5, 14
Race 4 - 1, 3, 6, 8
Race 5 - 2, 3, 4, 12
Race 6 - 1, 5

5 x 4 x 3 x 4 x 4 x 2 = 1,920 lines (£3,840)

Perm B

Race 1 - 1, 2, 3, 5, 9
Race 2 - 7, 9, 11
Race 3 - 1
Race 4 - 3, 8
Race 5 - 2, 4, 7, 15
Race 6 - 1, 5

5 x 3 x 1 x 2 x 4 x 2 = 240 lines (£480)

Perm C

Race 1 - 2, 5, 10
Race 2 - 7, 9
Race 3 - 1, 3
Race 4 - 6, 8
Race 5 - 2, 3, 4
Race 6 - 1, 5

3 x 2 x 2 x 2 x 3 x 2 = 144 lines (£288)

can you stick the placed perms up please when done?

ty

This is like the old FA CUP Final days, waiting for the team sheets two hours before KO.

Was going to send about now.   

Not sure why you put that up here?  That isn't what I sent out

Thanks to those who have put their time and effort into this. Much appreciated

No doubt I will get flamed, but just a few thoughts on this.

Whilst I appreciate that following the market makes sense from a maths perspective and the dead money reasoning, I doubt we shall get remotely rich even if we win today, from the final perm I saw. I never expected to join the Rich List if we won, but hoped to benefit from some real racing knowledge being applied to this.

Having just seen the other syndicates selections I am involved in, they are very very similar, with all the focus at the head of the market. I suspect that many many others will be just as "logical"

I must confess that with 6/7 very, very sharp horseracing minds on here, it's sad we couldn't have found a few more of these horses that weren't quite so obvious, and maybe given us a chance at scooping the lot. We don't seem to have uncovered any horses that were mispriced, as was mentioned on several occasions in the thread

I have no doubt others spent as many hours on it as myself, but our final selections feel a bit lazy in the end. Lets remember, the scoop has got so big because the results have included big priced winners on a regular basis.

Right, grizzle over, lets hope I am eating stacks of humble pie at 4pm and we are organising a trip to the races next week! GL us.

here is my teams perm pretty agressive strat going 4x2x2x2x2x4  but i quite like night of thunder to cause an upset in the guinees. Will you put your perm up here so i can sweat it when mine is down plz?

1,5,10,15
7,9
8,9
2,3
4,7
1,5,8,14

Adz the reason that the Scoop is a value bet is that there is dead money in it. You are using your bullets to find the 6-winners against people whose bullets have been spent (they put there money in over the past few weeks and that money is gone). The way you get that money is by winning it. The aim is not to outsmart the new money that comes in this week but to simply win it. The value you get for doing that comes from the dead money and the huge bonus fund. This value way exceeds any value you can get by outsmarting the other people who join this week. Luckily some of those people also don't get it so you get value from them too.

 This stuff is not subjective, the guys know the correct strategy.

I have sent a perm to Dan.  Not sure if he has put Chompy's on.  If he has it is no big deal.  Puts it all on Chompy, so I can just sit back and criticise.

Thanks for all selectors (Chompy, Adz and Neil).  I have added precisely 2 myself.  Tried to take everything on board, but it is hard to please everyone. 

Cheers to Dan for collecting and putting on the bet.

Let's get this won, but if we don't lets just get through race 1.

Hi Neil.

I totally understand we are trying to win the dead stuff, it's not a question that I don't get it. I was simply hoping that with all the knowledge at our disposal could have been used to better effect, and incorporate some less fundamental thinking. Essentially I will always be a horse form/hunch man over a maths man when it come to betting the nags. If the maths always won out, it would be easy and everyone would do it. I think you know what I mean.
Our selections feel like Andy Capp could have circled the first five in The Sun for each race, to get the same results hours of study did.

Done now, so lets move on

 That would be like getting a bunch of the world's best blackjack players in a room and suggesting that we never hit 16 as we want to make the game more interesting.

 The people who have invested in this that have no understanding of how the bet works or about horse racing surely deserve for their money to be used in the optimum way. To pick a few 20/1 shots to make it more fun would be mismanaging their money imo.

 

Sorry, thought you were at Centerparcs all day and out of reach. You said you were sending to Dan first thing.

I am very happy to let the experts make the picks, it would be my suggestion that if you aren't happy then don't invest.

Desert Creek (No.14) is a non-runner in Race 3. Replace with no.11 Fieldgunner Kirkup.

I think this is kind of misrepresenting the perm anyway.  There are a couple of races where we have the first 2 or 3, and it feels obvious in those races. Others we haven't done that.  I am fairly sure there are 14/1 and 16/1 chances in the one I have just sent in, just not the real long shots.  And we have also ducked a few 7/1 chances too.  

I think you may underestimate the people investing, or their level of knowledge.

I also suspect that many people invested hoping that the "brains" on here were going to make some inspired picks based on their extensive knowledge. I reckon many would have not been so inspired by optimal maths strategy that will be adopted up and down the country by many syndicates.

It may well be won by maths, but I think many were hoping to hear which horses you fancied(no one on here will ever agree with me to disagree with you, so I know no one will pipe up), Chompy fancied etc, not the best math solution.

I'm actually bigging you all up, not knocking you, because I respect your knowledge, so please don't take it the wrong way.

I did intend to, but kids just get in the way and was waiting on yours and Neil's response.

Adz please use your one time and admit all these rants are just huge levels and you do understand the best way to play these jackpots in order to maximise your return and not maximise your potential to be a hero.  Gambling is a maths game.  The maths punters always win over time that's why none of us can get a copper coin on with all the firms and all the feel punters keep getting accommodated because they don't win over time.

 I quite like Talent Scout instead of Fieldgunner Kirkup unless you have a strong view. (sorry, we had that already).

We are officially on

race 1   Big Baz   Rosearrow   Bold Sniper   Niceofyoutotellme   Rock Choir   Burano
race 2   Sole Power   Pearl Secret   Hot Streak   Moviesta      
race 3   Music in the rain   Fieldgunner Kirkup   Talent Scout      
race 4   Elusivity   Ajjadd   Kyleakin Lass   Pal of The Cat      
race 5   Farlow   Norse Blues   Off Art   Trail Blazer  
race 6   Kingman   Australia            


or

race 1   16   11   5   12   10   3
race 2   9   7   11   6      
race 3   1   11  3      
race 4   6   1   3   8      
race 5   12   3   4   5      
race 6   5   1    

How much is each £ worth if we scoop or is that too difficult to say?

Sorry I missed this, guys. Not been around this week.

Very best of luck. I'll be cheering you on as soon as I'm out :)

impossible to say at this stage.

Do we get anything if only x amount of them win?  Or do we need a winner from all six to make it itm?

I put Talent Scout and another in for you and took a couple out.   Had the 4 windows on the phone, 2 kids wanting to sit on my lap thing going on.  Rejigging the perm more than that at that stage didn't appeal much.  

Think I'll hand this on to Sir Chompy if we have to do another week.  

Let's just get further than last week!

Looking at those selections i dont think we can lose.
So, as long as we get a winner from any of the selections in each race.... We scoop?

George

There is a running tally on the tote site.  So you can divide pool by people left to get an idea where we stand.  All assuming we get to race 2. 

Can someone link to it later, going to be tough for me.

Cheers

I am as ever, in a no win situation.

If we go out to an outsider in the first, I am results orientated, If we win, I am a fool, and maths guys knew.

All I know is I dont kill myself over the maths but I spend hours a day looking at form/notes/trends etc, and as a few people on here can testify, it has served me very nicely for many years or so, so I won't subscribe to the maths is be all end all of horse racing theory, sorry. Sure that helps to confirm to you I am a fool, but I can live with that. ;)

 I don't fancy Australia or Kingman  in any way shape or form at the current prices in the Guineas. I am involved in a whole bunch of Scoop 6 syndicates. In every single one they have those two selections. If they did not have I would be really fed-up that I gave them my money to bet and if any of them added a 3rd selection at 25/1 there I would be annoyed.

 We have not formed a syndicate to try and pick the winners of the 6 races that represent the best value in the current market at the available prices. We have formed a syndicate to give ourself a better chance of winning the Scoop 6 and getting a share of all that dead-money.

 Surely you can realise Adz that the result of the 1st race is going to prove nothing about the correct way to approach this bet.

 It's about 20/1 that a horse 5/1 or more wins that race. If that happens it will not show that we should have taken a few outsiders so we could win the whole thing alone. It's also about evens that we go out in the first leg. That will prove we suck at flips.

http://www.scoop6.co.uk/results/

As I said, I wont win regardless.

To repeat, i totally understand the maths objective. I am therefore probably the only person in the syndicate here that didn't realise that we were not really involved in trying to use our racing knowledge edge to find fancies, but to optimise the maths.

 I therefore apologise for my input! ;djinn;

FYP adz

To repeat, i totally DON'T understand the maths objective. I am therefore probably the only person in the syndicate here that did realise that we were really involved in trying to use our racing knowledge edge to find fancies, but to not optimise the maths.

here we goooooooooo

Oi oi

:)

Off and running with a winner, oooh, how exciting.

ok then, further than last week lads!

Well I'm glad that didn't fall flat :P

leggooooo

How much have we won?

were are the actual selections?

we are obv through so good start!

wiiii. the sweat is on. I knew we would be better off going with Tikay's picks. #forgetthemaths

thought we just picked the 'obvious' favs???? 16/1 winner of the first at morning prices!  Thought we had done our cash at the first fence? how are we still in? ;D

one page back

LOL, results orientated!

Not sure how 10s isnt in first 4 favs?

change the record adz , i have seen you tip plenty of big winners up but you are sounding like an old woman.

this is all meant to be a bit of fun with hopefully a big win at the end.

good luck us.

Im having plenty of fun bagel. Thanks for your input

adz to do the TV interview with clare balding next week when we are going for the bonus to explain our strategy to the world!

I'm
Confused do we have number 6 not bamed

Ha ha so confused watched wrong race on silent fmel

I think you're the only one.  Can we move on, its getting pretty tedius.

where can we get info on how many tickets are still in the pool?  Apart from having to listen to tanya on c4 telling us?  I can't see it on the offical totepool site. 

i've been looking but can't seem to find it.  my guess is about 200 tickets left.

http://www.scoop6.co.uk/results/

i was a bit out

119999 tickets remaining after 1 race

or twitter is good @totepool

totepool @totepool  ·  12m
119,999 tickets remain in the #Scoop6 after leg 1! Onto the next...

Oh dear. Neil was right.

cheers lads.  That would have been the best result for us in the first i assume out of the 6 we selected in terms of reducing the pool size remaining?

http://www.totepoolliveinfo.com/2014/05/03/newmarket/scoop6/Main

This is interesting.  Moviesta is the best result for us in leg 2.  will only be 12000 tickets left if that wins.

Bumped for reference, we have 4 shots in the next.

BOOM

skill game! too easy.

40k left... shit result.

we go again

Good work guys.

Many of us have no idea about how to do the perm but have faith in you all.

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Bmtwr1xCQAAqnMD.jpg)

We should get a bonus for the tricast.

40k was the worst 10k the best not much difference in that really!

rather have a winner than be out!

i jest of course.

Horse was 16/1 in the morning.  Will be surprised if it was in the top 4 most popular horses.  Was probably one of our best results.  

Got a pass out, can see us win the mill ball.  Go go

As you were then! In my hungover state subtlety is not obvious!

Music In The Ra'    14,861.00 + Unnamed Favourite    1,063.00
Talent Scout    4,619.00
Fieldgunner Kir'    4,309.00

Can't find a keep rolling on gif so this will have to do.

(http://cdn.ientry.com/sites/webpronews/article_pics/kellyk.gif)

Is thirsk on TV

No, but you can watch it on most online betting sites.

Don't think so.  Glad I rushed back to the TV.  Put a quid on with hills and watch there.

or watch it like a true pro by clicking refresh on bf.

Adz getting loads of stick here unfairly I think. I just think he wanted a tilt at life changing
Money which it's unlikely that perm will make.

Can i buy an island yet?

the dream is over?

Afraid so, yes.

geeeeg

Sigh - good effort tho

Anyway, big thanks to all those who made it possible, took a ton of work by 5 or 6 of you, much appreciated.

I shall now have to rely on poker to make my fortune. No problem.

At least we had a good run

We will be back next week with one more shock result to do it all again!

In for next week. #potstuck

This just isn't true no matter how many people say it.

If we got a couple of 16/1 chances in there, they'd be very few winners, and we'd be one of the very few going for the 2 mill bonus.


  
  

Fingers crossed, yes.

I'll be in for my tiddlearse share again.

Place pool dead too FWIW.

Should have stayed away, bokked as soons as I left the kids

Getting closer...

Afternoon anti-railing the jackpot coming in, so we can give it another spin

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J9gKyRmic20

Chins up ;)

Come on Tennessee Wildcat in the next  ;D

How does the place pool work doobs?

Pound of the £2 goes on the place part of the bet.  We had 2 places in the first two races, none in that one.  Place paid £700+ last week, so pick up 5 of them you get money back.  Will probably be fairly decent this week givem the results.

So to clarify for those who don't know what's going on, we got no returns this time but will get another crack at a bigger jackpot next week?

We get another crack next week IF it does not get won this week.

So we need to anti-rail the remaining races.

About that but we are funking the collapse of the pool right now, so we can spew another 4k.

I nominate Chompy.

We will be having a go at wining something, not the jackpot though.

Think if the first 2 get beat in the Guineas is will be unlikely to be won.  So we are likely to be funking against them come race 6.

Cheers Rich

Exactly what I was trying to say.

The point was, we didnt have a bunch of 16-1 shots to chop away the prize chasers, we were fishing the same part of pond as everyone else, so if we won, they won too, so the dividend wouldnt be massive. The field was always going to be thinned by having a rag or two win, and so it proved, but its easy to just belittle Adz, cos its Adz being Adz.

Thankfully I have a thick skin(and head, before Argueboy gets in) ;angel;

 Won't be won now.

13 tickets left after Pandar.

Wish me luck boys

#prayforcamel

just as good! ;)

2, 4, 7, 11, 12, 13 hae tickets left on them in the 3.40 Thirsk

Ooh, fingers crossed for you Keith.

what are you on in the next Keith?

1/1000 not the scoop 6

1 ticket left for the last leg. 

One ticket left

oh.

That's a f***** big hedge

what price given the winners already that its not one of the front two in the market?

last ticket is on Noozhoh Canarias

lol huge priced shot in the last. think its safe to say its a rollover!

One for the 'feel' punters!!!!!!!!

quality.  The Spanish Frankel

Please be Adz one time!

rofl show us the ticket adz

I've a HUNCH it's a complete guesser! ;)

If this doesn't show you the value in his bet nothing will

£2 acca with the firms return more than the jackpot pool assuming they would pay out £5m?

Obviously a bully at school eh argueboy.....hunt in packs too I expect!  lol

We live to fight another day.

Will start a new thread in the morning.

dug that out at 40s but didnt have a penny on, 12 lines up on pp tho

Triggs only found the winner and 12 places lines....

If we can run kingman and Australia out we get the lot

Good shooting Rich. Hope it a good divvy for you.

Think it's about £900 if deduction already taken from displayed pool

Nice one Rich!

sigh i made a mistake 6 lines

Can tell he's a feel punter not a maths punter.....

TFT syndycate in dor Trigg with large transfer fee for next week

Happy to collect again since everyone has the details

Thanks Dan  :)up

Second post in 8 years, to say thanks to whoever for organising this!

I'm in it via Marky 147.

And Adz shutup ;nana;

Oh ffs, another lunatic in the asylum.

didnt have a penny on this thing after the write up lol

Well I thought you might need someone to argue with Adam?

Clearly you're ok though on that score! ;boldie;

Cheers Dan. You know we can't say no. £6 million next week?

Just tax a % of Shaun's :D

Just tax Shaun :D

In attempting to prove I'm not on the wind up, and maybe to understand some principles better for myself, let me explain why I felt our optimal strategy needed a complimentary approach, shall we say.

I wont be using any x over y with brackets, or to the power of, as I dont follow that stuff. I was a words and history boy at school.

I said I understood the optimal strategy, well, , in broad terms, ie, giving ourselves the best chance to win given a long terms set of circumstances, which in this case is backing front of the market, because the favourites are the favourites for a reason. I hope that makes sense. If that isn't right then the rest below is even more wrong and a waste of time, and I will look even more foolish(used to that).

I digress for a moment. In our local card game we play weekly for the last 20 plus years, same 8-10 mates, we have a mate called Damien(The Omen, we call him), owns an Accountancy practice with 30 employees, for context,  and he is the unluckiest person I know at cards. We are all pretty much the same players, all ABC, never read a poker book or taken instruction, all would have been seen as good ten years ago etc, but useless now. Week in week out when the chips go in if Damien has the draw vs a made hand, he never gets there. if he has the made hand vs a draw, the draw always gets there. For a few years it was funny, as we all talked varience, and it would level out etc etc. It never has. of course he wins once in a blue moon, but he still gets by far the worst of it week in week out. Its scary. If he were to win for the next 19 and a half years straight, he will draw level we reckon. Realistically varience wont have enough time to balance out for Omen, as he is 50.

That is part of my point that maybe I don't understand properly. Yes, given a lifetime, playing that optimal strategy will mean we win. I suspect thousands of other "optimal strategists" adopted the same policy( therefore reducing the potential final payout massively), much as I understand our maths boys know their stuff, if the formulae for the optimal strategy is so commonly know, then everyone will be using it, and if there are certain tweaks to make it slightly better, I dont think our forum is a playground for budding Stephen Hawkings, ie there are probably plenty out there better(if it can be bettered?!) Get my drift?

So having established, if we are the be all at Optimal strategy, then so will many others, and if anything, there will be others out there better.

Despite all this I still agree we needed it covered.

What I wanted to see was the Horse racing skills brought to the fore, which is our definite forte. A situation perhaps where all the HR guys were asked to look at the race the way they would any other( If it were Cheltenham, you would never have seen Neil putting up those sort of selections, he would have been looking to weed out the longer price ones). Strangely, the only evidence I saw of that was Chompys pick in the first, that won!
Maybe after we had all done this we could have compared and if we agreed on one of these outsiders, included them in the perm, or a smaller perm. If you have got this far, you surely understand me here?!

All I felt was there was room to exploit the clear edge we do have over the vast majority of other syndicates, if wasn't a slight on anyone here, even if it was considered one.  If I am a donkey, so be it, but hopefully, you understand my angle better. I shall have a token interest next week(would hate to not be in it if you won), but find a better place for my limited talent elsewhere, for the rest. GL

As someone who had no interest in this stake I totally agree with Adz.  I think too much of the time we get bogged down in Maths on here, what ever happened to feel and knowledge of the sport.  We are assuming that every market is correct and that the favourites always have the best chance of winning.  If that was the case we'd all be minted and the bookies would be skint no?

In if Adz and Camel stick up an alternative pool. 

This is all theory Adz and none of it was applicable to yesterday's Scoop6 races.

I spent a few hours going through them and put forward what I fancied. These are tough handicaps full of exposed horses. The prices are invariably correct and the horses with the best chances will be towards the head of the market.

It will be the same next weekend. There's so much dead money in the pool and so much more will be added that there won't be any point looking too far beyond the obvious.

We shouldn't be looking to scoop the lot with a load of 25-1 shots. If we do that we'd be better off sticking combination accas on and the chances are we'll crash either in race 1 or race 2 anyway.

I think that Adz's theory works perfectly had it not been a rollover.

Because of the huge amount of dead money just sitting there, I would say that a different and possibly more maths-orientated approach is almost certainly the best strategy to take advantage in a rollover situation, but I'm sure this point was covered earlier.

The downside of this is that we are unlikely to scoop the lot.

See, thats what I dont get Chomps.

You say its all theory, and then its not applicable, but I got the feeling Argueboy was ridiculing me for exactly that!!

My point was that the reason the scoop keeps getting bigger is due to a few rags coming in. It happened again. We are fishing in the same ponds as every other bugger.

In the end your theory will be right when all the favs come in and everyone scoops a decent amount(probably what they put in), but so will everyone else. And each passing week it is likely to happen. In the intervening weeks when the big prices come in, I am right, but still branded the village idiot.

I think a fair few people on here are approaching this as a lottery hoping we have a knowledgeable edge, not joining one big maths exercise which can be solved, that thousands of others are likely to solve too.

In for next week , thanks all for input. How about 10 or 20% of fund go towards combi accum taking in big prices and optimum strategy for scoop... Whatever, I'm in ...

Hi,

There is a seperate thread for next Saturday, here....


http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=63692.msg1935211#new

So please Post on that one for next Saturday, or it might get missed.

As for "optimum strategy", that is a matter of some debate.