blonde poker forum

First news.  

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/164c3151-47dd-40a5-93a1-909b93c89787 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/164c3151-47dd-40a5-93a1-909b93c89787)

Sorry Jezza, looking like an also ran to me

Fist pump!

In.

You would expect Mr Vine will be hoping for a waltz first up. Having seen his little skits in the election coverage, you wouldn't fancy him delivering a cha cha cha.

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/08/11/strictly-come-dancing-2015-line-up-ainsley-harriott_n_7973212.html

Too many arsenil fans...

EastEnders actress Kellie Bright was the third celebrity to be added to this year's line-up, BBC Radio 2 DJ Chris Evans announced the news on his Breakfast Show. Bright, who plays Linda Carter in the long-running soap, said she's been getting fit for the occasion, although said she hasn't been doing any dancing: "There's going to be plenty of time for that," she joked. The actress will still be working on EastEnders so says she may be "trotting around Albert Square".

(http://i3.mirror.co.uk/incoming/article3548770.ece/ALTERNATES/s615/Linda-Carter-in-Eastenders.jpg)

Strictly Come Dancing 2015 getting accounts closed at the bookies thread

Blondes been on strictly for a few years none closed yet because of it

(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/336xn/p0301nh5.jpg)

(http://ichef-1.bbci.co.uk/news/660/cpsprodpb/16FCF/production/_85095149_danielo'donnell.jpg)

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34005161

I hope he goes out early otherwise my mum might bankrupt the family through running up the phone bill voting for him.

Anthony Ogogo has got to be a live runner to win yes?

louis smith type of contestant

fit, athletic, coachable, likes training, good looking

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/boxing/34017448

(http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/61297000/jpg/_61297830_ogogo.jpg)

I think Jamelia must be value.  Sure she must be able to dance, always seemed likeable to me.  Just had my first bet at 9/1 with Corals. 

That's not a bad price. My concern is her commitment to the project. She does a fair bit of reality TV work. Is she going to be putting the hours in or just doing a bit and taking the cheque? Hard workers tend to be rewarded in this show - there's always someone who loses a load of weight and who you see pouring sweat in training. They don't always win but they are frequently where the value lies

I'm saving my rant about the three new pros all being latin specialists for another day.

georgia foote from corrie has to be another early favourite

stage school background, performing, model, dancer

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CMR4YULUEAA60ZO.jpg)

Obvious comparator is Louisa Lytton

(http://img.dailymail.co.uk/img/galleries/strictlydance06/strict9BBC_233x350.jpg)

Thank goodness there are a few more people who can actually win,  else we'll never beat those bookies.

Former 400m runner, Iwan Thomas

(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/336xn/p030wjyc.jpg)

And, as expected, Sky Sports News presenter, Kirsty Gallagher:

(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/336xn/p030wk2g.jpg)

Kirsty Gallacher

thats Autumn saturday nights sorted then

yum yum.

Iwan Thomas looks like the camp guy outta Carrie. Anthony cotton I think is name is?

i had to laugh

one of the SCD competitors, anthony ogogo, tweeted Iwan roberts the former striker at norwich, leicester etc and said he was looking forward to being on the show with him

roberts had to point out that he had got the wrong iwan....

trying to imagine the big lumbering oaf Roberts on SCD!

all 16 names are live and aprtners are allocated next weekend

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner

early fancies?

i'll go georgia foote and ogogu

i note 2nd favourite says

"Jay McGuiness doesn't rate his chances of Strictly Come Dancing success all too high.

The Wanted singer is one of fifteen celebs on this year's line up and is busy in rehearsals ahead of next weekend's launch show.

Ranking his "dad dancing", Jay gave himself a 5 out of ten before the show."

http://www.tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/strictly-come-dancing/229657-strictly-come-dancing-2015s-jay-mcguiness-gives-his-dad-dancing-a-5-out-of-10.html


any signs of early value if he isn't?

Anthony Ogogo - middleweight boxer (so light on his feet), he'll have no problems doing any lifts. He shouldn't be afraid of hard work in training. At the risk of falling into a stereotype trap, as someone who is mixed race he shouldn't be all at sea when it comes to the Latin dances. He also (to my untrained eye) seems to be rather easy on the eye, which won't hurt when it comes to collecting votes. He maybe won't be brilliant straight out of the traps, but decent enough to stay in, thus giving him the opportunity to do 'the journey' and become this years Louis Smith/Caroline Flack.

I've had a look at some interviews on Youtube and he does manage to smile in them so he doesn't have the overwhelming swagger and arrogance that some boxers can have (which would be offputting to the strictly audience).

I've had a lump on at 14/1 to give me a sweat over the next few weeks. Hopefully he won't get paired with Kristina (who I see is in the papers again for stealing another husband).

Ola jordan would be the dream partner for Ogogo. popular with men and women

i am on at 14-1 a few days ago too

contestants gallery

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p0318l9n/p0317t3z

Just saw a pic. If he has any sort of rhythm whatsoever he should be about 2/1 at best.

Jay McGuiness must be a lay then?  Surely that isn't a good look? 

Starting the contest in a sling might get sympathy votes, but can't be a positive?

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s104/strictly-come-dancing/news/a666363/strictlys-anthony-ogogo-peter-andre-looks-like-a-sexy-spanish-bullfighter.html#~pn4t2BUxoQpa5C (http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s104/strictly-come-dancing/news/a666363/strictlys-anthony-ogogo-peter-andre-looks-like-a-sexy-spanish-bullfighter.html#~pn4t2BUxoQpa5C)

he is going to be annoying

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COKQ2vgWEAAD5tb.jpg)

Daniel O'Donnell paired with Kristina - someone at Strictly obvious hates her, pairing her with the most sexless man on earth.

wonder if anita rani can dance

iwan thomas too

two decent pairings at nice prices if they have any ability

I was only just thinking after seeing the list of the new "celebs" that picking him and Peter Andre is really scraping the barrel, and I don't even watch it.

They've lost all chance of getting me now.

From what I saw in that group dance, we may have done our money on Ogogo already :(

didn't look good

katie derham looked an interesting celeb

plenty of natural rhythm, loves the show, got anton

very rare for an anton partnership tp get knocked out early no matter how bad....

I think Anton might be in with a chance this year, Katie at 40/1, seems decent.

At the risk of egg on the face, Jay McGuinness is the most sure fire lay I have ever seen unless he is sand bagging the betting public.

going to watch that group dance again

he looked atrocious. but he's a pop singer, hwo can he be that bad?

Jamelia seems like she can throw a few moves

If you want Katie - get on at 40/1 at Beteveryday - price crashing elsewhere

Didn't even need the group dance. Watch how he walks on to have his partner announced. Bless him, but he has less rhythmn than me, and that is cause for serious concern.

got a small amount on at 50s when i posted

watch her be useless at latin now

He says he is terrible himself.  Sure I put him up as a lay the other day.  Long since laid him at 6 and a bit/1.  Jamelia looks good.

Just saw a fella called simon on X factor from the Isle of man, don't know his surname.  Going to be having a look.  He looked good on the first line, got better.   Pls be a price later.  

Katie looks a bet.

If you can get the 10/1,Jamelia with b365 e/w, you just have to

Just had a lol at the fact Paddy Power have Daniel O'Donnell at 9/1.

Even Coral will give you 40/1 - PP really taking no risks with the local money.

Fella on X factor is simon lynch.  Betfair is easily the best at 15.5.   Most of that money on him so far is mine so don't assume he is v popular.

No-one over 40 has ever won. Only one over 50 has finished in top 3.

nice correlation graph for you

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/COKNV-nXAAAV3K9.png)

I have at last caught up with the show and here are my immediate observations, in no particular order:

- In recent years, the producers have gone for names and, increasingly,  for comedy in their selections of celebrity contestants. This year, there aren't outrageously ridiculous candidates, no figures of complete farce and no hugely overweight folk. Whilst it's true that anyone can learn to dance, not just anyone can win a tv dancing competition.

- O'Donnell didn't exactly set the competition alight, coming across rather damp. Could be nerves but he looked like an elderly man at his granddaughter's 21st birthday party, watching awkwardly as the young folk get rowdy on the dance floor. Partner was an inspired choice. He will be in the competition until mid to late November. Whether the judges like it or not.

- Otherwise, whether it was just the pre-match pinot or not, the cast seemed a really good natured bunch, with a dark sense of humour and not taking themselves too seriously, which is great news.

- Ainsley is going to be great fun, right up to the moment he isn't. In Natalie, he has someone whose strength is what looks to be his weakness: ballroom.

- Ola looked still to be struggling from her injuries, as her legs looked a little bent in the pro dancers' opening cha cha in the studio. Might just have been me, but that was the impression I had anyway.

- A few of the professionals seem to have been carrying a few summer pounds, while Brendan Cole looks as trim as I've seen him for several years. A few weeks to get sharpened up so no dramas but always interesting to see who's up for the series.

- There's a new pro who is Italian, loves himself, has independently moving eyebrows and is a devil for the ladies. Sound familiar? No, well they put him with the small, cute soap actress who was wearing a bright green dress that looked like a lampshade cover.

(http://media.celebrity-pictures.ca/Celebrities/Louisa-Lytton/Louisa-Lytton-i125955.jpg)

- Gleb. That's just obscene. No one should look like that and have talent. It's specifically that principle that means I don't feel bad about being rubbish at stuff. It's what helps me through my failures. Don't start coming here with your face and ability to dance, thank you.

- Peter Andre can dance but we knew that already.

- The Winkleman continues to rock.

- Gallacher has an ideal partner in Brendan. I was concerned about the height difference but 7.5 inches should be compensated by a decent pair of heels.

- Iwan Thomas ran around like an excited puppy. If he can learn to convert that into actions done in time to music, who knows?

- Surprise of the group dance was Katie Derham, who looked like she had excellent timing and good movement. In Anton, she has a safe pair of hands, although Anton winning seems a distant hope now; his latin simply isn't strong enough.

All in all, lots to look forward to.

Call me an idiot in a few months, but I think you are absolutely doing your money on Derham. Anton is rubbish at the Latin dances and can't really do the lifts. The public would need to absolutely LOVE her for her to win. Probably a great back to lay option though as price will definitely come in.

Thought I said as much?

You did, I just missed it. Apologies.

Try shorter posts :)

Coral just signed up James Jordan as its social media banter bus driver or something

Thrillingly, this starts tomorrow

song choices/dances here

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/56e214a9-0eb1-4a13-851c-16b490eb0611

(http://replygif.net/i/603.gif)

Some worrying song choices tonight. Iwan's tango is going to be a little odd, I suspect.

Kellie loving the entry music. I am expecting she is going to be fun this series.

That was fun. A little off in her balance (so it looked a bit floppy) but her hand position was good and she made a good job of her first dance.

Wasn't a tango, of course. Kinks FFS?

27 a fair score for week one. Her timing was good so I expect her to be ok in the latin dance next week.

A one armed jive.interesting

Ogogo will be hanging around for a while methinks.

Flailed about a bit but he can be coached.

His steps were too big, but that should be an asset in the waltz next week.

As a general point, cha cha and waltz are the dances you'd start teaching beginners, because the timing and basics are relatively easy to follow.

Helen is going to get pummelled on her footwork.  Barely a heel in sight.

It was a nice dance for sure and certainly the most difficult of the three routines.

But bear in mind it's a little easier for the women being led in hold in the ballroom dances.

Notable that Len gave her the same score as Kellie.

I'm going out on a limb here...

...Carol won't win.

Heard it here first, folks.

She had fun, though. 16 fair. She may still beat O'Donnell and Vine.

Footwork excellent! Mr O'Donnell?

Ok, it's a bit wonky from the ankle up, but it's better than I expected.

I am looking forward to his rumba :)

Anita had a very tricky cha cha after flitting about at the start.

Very well handled apart from a couple of wrong steps. Really lively and good hips.

I think Gleb could turn me.  My word.

The best opening night of any series. No question. Lots of potential on display. Judges were fair throughout in comments and marks.

Roll on tomorrow!

It's like looking in a mirror, isn't it?

Be interesting to see how good his ballroom is.

Dear

Oh

Dear.

Daughter convinced me to put a tenner on her. Will watch later

Tal, will your weekly tips be appearing on TfT or here? Planning on crushing this series.

Derek McGovern has put Georgia May Foote up for first one out at 33-1 (40-1 is available). Thoughts?

Will post on TfT, as I understand they won't place bets for Fred unless they're on the thread. However this will be a thread where anyone can put their thoughts so worth sticking around. I'll definitely be chewing the fat here, so I'd be grateful for anything people have to say (not you, Camel :D)

I definitely like people who really understand markets to be involved. Teamwork is what gets us rich.

Haven't seen Georgia May Foote dance yet. She goes tonight. In the little clip of her early training on the iPlayer, she looked like she was doing a pretty fast and technical jive, by week one standards, which will be to this:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShlW5plD_40

It has an easy to pick up beat (you're counting one-a-two in a slightly skippy style) and she should be able to get through it. Next week, she will have a ballroom dance and, off memory, I can't remember any woman going after a ballroom week one. Maybe Gloria Huniford with Darren Bennett series 3?

Edit. Nope. Even she made it through two eliminations. Siobhan Hayes went out week one after a shocker of a waltz with Matthew Cutler. So it has been done.

Georgia May does have 250,000 twitterettes and goes out with the (now former) baddie from Corrie, Sean "Callum" Ward. She'll get support next week whatever she does this week.

for a first week i thought the standard was extremely high last night.

first to exit market

got to remember that a big thing in this is who has exposure to the public regularly

for example carol kirkwood is going to struggle but she is HUGELY popular with the type of people that vote

Jeremy vine, going to struggle, but has a daily radio 2 show where he can schmaltz to the type of people who vote

if you are on breakfast tv, daily radio,loose women etc you have a marginal advantage compared to someone with no outlet to be seen

if you are in the judges bottom two and popular, you attract votes. just outside, and people aren't compelled to vote

i'm looking for an alternative to the two favourites in this market

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/1st-elimination

everything i see tells me that jay mcguinness can't dance, isn't enjoying it and he's a 33/1 poke to go first

the band haven't had a hit since 2013, aren't in the consciousness of the voters and he has no platform to appeal for votes

interested to see if he struggles tonight and have a stray tenner on now on the off chance the price really tumbles

i still can't get over what a charismatic couple anita and gleb were. 

Am a bit peeved, thought she'd do well and never pulled the trigger. Unfortunately Jamelia has drifted badly.   Am going to be ready to steam in again if she starts well tonight.

Think you are absolutely right on Jay.  Looks a huge price, and will back you up.  I laid him on betfair v early.  Suggest £15 with Korals for thread. 

Be careful on Jay. He's very very nervous but has dance experience:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R_mRdJJxiHw

He's in the blue union jack hoodied to start with, then comes back on about half way through in a tight black vest, before doing some lifts. It's not very musical but it's clearly heavily rehearsed and he will likely be growing into the show if he doesn't go early.

He's been training in shorts, which is not ideal, but Aliona will be eager not to get Jacklinned again. She will know Jay would be an attractive choice for the Strictly Tour if she can get him through a few weeks and that is worth an extra £60k to the pros, it is rumoured.  

That said, he may be a value outsider to walk first. One for Fred?

What is this "Strictly Tour"?

the programme runs sept-dec

pros get about £50k a run, celebs similar

8 celebs then go on the live tour that runs jan-mar round arenas etc

worth more £££ to the celebs and pros.

to get selected onto the tour you have to go deep in the live run, for starters

A select few couples do a few arena gigs. It's very difficult to get in the audience for the live shows, so it gives a chance to the thousands of unsuccessful applicants to see a mock show. You get some good ones and a couple of comedy bad ones, with usually three of the judges. Different winner each night, etc.

Are the Tour tickets free?

no, its how the BBC pays for the talent on the tv show (and hire of venues etc)

Helen looks like she'll be a very good all rounder, ballet trained, lovely sparkly eyes  :) Surely a finalist?

Anita certainly looks to be a star in this. Missed the boat at around 10/1?

Short people don't have a good record in the show. She may have trouble covering the floor in the ballroom disciplines and longer lines can look more graceful as they make better lines. Cheeky cha cha was right up her street. Let's see how she does next week.

10/1 is no price at all for me.

Who doesn't love a good Pro Dancers' number?

Cha cha, then, first up.

Weight forward, small steps and timing.


Can he do those?

He's not bad...

Bring back the dancing pig I say, he was a show-stopper.

Super nervous and lost his way in the middle a bit, but he does have a lot of potential.

Excellent hip action. He is certainly working well with Aliona. Clearly listening to what he is told.

Tighty has called this well. First out or a dark horse.

Kirsty is going to get some stick for her feet. Her core needs to be pulled up and extend her frame.

Solid but unspectacular start

Judges were fair.

Hold onto your hats, Jeremy Vine reports to the dancefloor.

I'm setting the like at 17.

Anyone going over or under?

Karen has slowed this arrangement down, I think.

Hilarious. 2 - 5 - 6 - 6 for a comic 19 is my guess.

Pretty good act to follow for Georgia May

Despite his ninja edit, Tal gets a 2 from Craig for his maths skills.

Lol. I'm lucky to get that!

Best dance so far. Very good on the flicks. Kicks could be better but she was excellent.

Perhaps a little undermarked. 

Let's see if we can get the arsenal fan beat.

Shame as I like Natalie, but needs must.

Every step on his heels. Every. Single. One.

If that's a tango, I'm Venezuelan

He did very well to break 20 when they hated him from the chin down.

It is harsh asking people to learn tango first. He has salsa next, which also has a unique time and technique, meaning he is basically starting from scratch in weeks 3 and 4.

He's got a pretty rough ride with these dances.

As Tal says, Ainsley looks worth a speculative bet at 40/1.  ;whistle;

Anton has a partner that can dance!!!

Her weight was forward, excellent feet, great timing.

Wonderful.

Keep whistling ;D

She did look good. 

searches for the 50_1 derham ticket. Found it.!

David Cameron's ears perked up.

"I normally just pick em up and chuck em"

Priceless. 

My policy of not backing anyone until I've seen them dance both disciplines is looking foolish now, having picked her out from the first show! Nicely done, Tighty.

It's an appalling song choice for a tango. He must be worried about his ears falling off as he's holding them to his head with his shoulders.

Had more content that Ainsley's and proper footwork but still not great.

Knew you'd come round. 

The judges say he's plodding but the music is bouncy, rather than dramatic, so a beginner is going to go up and down a bit naturally, rather than staying on a level and dragging his feet.

17 not exactly fair compared with Jeremy's 19, but there wasn't much in it.

Oi, Mr Ninja Edit! Where were you when I said 2+5+6+6 = 21?

Peter Andre gets the prime slot then. Rigged

Jamelia's surprising a few here.

Her feet are a bit sloppy and she lost her frame, but she did well. 23 ish?

I'm really not a fan of Tristan. He is one of the weaker pros.

Indeed, anyone but him.

Rip him to shreds please Tal.

Think the bet is fine.  20/1 would be a big bet.

Rumours he is crying a lot, apparently.

I expect him to start well but plateau over the course of the show.

Peter Andre appears to be turning into Joey Barton.

Good news and bad news, Tonji.

Good news: I hated it. Barely any cha cha in it.

Bad news: the judges will love it.

Best choreography of either episode.

He had NO HIPS! None! Watch this get 30.

Joke tilting.

Ha!

Just got 30 odd Jamelia and 60 odd Ainsley on Betfair.  Last of the blind gamblers obv.

Jay is still 8.8 or so.  He looks a right clodhopper to me, but maybe I am biassed?

An hour long Friday It Takes Two?

(http://spotted.tv/app/uploads/20131201-1755141.jpg)

Marvellous.

Week Two

We get to see how the ballroom dancers from last week cope with latin and vice versa. The path ahead becomes, hopefully, clearer.

Some interesting things on It Takes Two tonight. I have been looking at how tomorrow and Sunday might go. It's a bit of a finger in the air job but we can probably do this better than the bookies so whyever not. Format is combined judges' scores are ranked and given equal weight to the publc vote, two in the dance off and judges pick who walks (with Len getting the casting vote). 

So, what we want to establish is who the worst dancer this weekend will be that ends up doing the dance off.

(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/336xn/p033n3yz.jpg)

These guys all look solid and decent enough. They will stay.

Here is the business end:

(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/336xn/p033n3zn.jpg)

Carol is dancing with an umbrella. She won't be wowing the judges, else Pasha would be doing away with props. However, she will be at the bottom and getting votes from the BBC News crowd. She will avoid the dance off.

Jeremy is doing an American Smooth, which is absolutely horrible, because it's foxtrot timing (the hardest ballroom dance - no one else has to do a foxtrot week one/two) and has a lift to contend with. His frame is appalling and he won't score above 22, unless I've seen very misleading footage. But he will get votes. Having discussed it with betting counsel, 7/1 with Sky is certainly a standout price, with everyone else 11/2. I may be over thinking it but I'll give you my views anyway.

Supporting my logic that the others get votes, Iwan is the favourite to walk on Sunday. He is doing a cha cha. Ola does well with the latin choreography with her weaker partners. She knows what the public vote for (ahem), so I expect the wardrobe department will have spent a below-average amount of time on Ola and Iwan's outfits. Flesh everywhere. He will commit completely and he will get everyone going in the crowd. The judges will marmalise it but the public will want him to stay.

Anthony is still dancing with his shoulder strapped up. That's going to make his Waltz pretty bad up top but he will have big strides I suspect and if his footwork is competent, he should get 25, which means he won't have to worry. If he had got 21 last week, I would have considered him here, but I can't see him low enough to go.

Jamelia has been dancing in trainers, which I hate. I can't be doing with watching Tristan either. But she should get enough in her cha cha to stick around, coupled with a below average level of support from the public.

The remaining two have salsas. Kirsty has only had 11 hours of training this week. She struggled massively with her nerves having reportedly aced in rehearsal. A party dance for a girly girl may suit. I have a mild concern that she and Brendan haven't quite hit it off but I am keeping an open mind on that one. She is surely going to get some support from the dads and lads and who doesn't want Brendan to do well? Pins on display with a high hemmed dress, surely? (If not, that either means she isn't playing along or Brendan doesn't think her legs are very good in Latin). She's in danger for sure, though, unless she steps up. She has a fabulous looking jump into Brendan, scissoring her legs around him and being shown upside down. That's hugely brave in her first dance. She could go either way, but it's most likely something in the mid to low twenties.

That leaves Ainsley. His training footage from Wednesday showed him having the same footwork as his tango: walking like you'd walk to the shops.  He will shimmy and party and be a barrel of laughs but he could face criticism if his hips don't move. I can see people being disappointed, having had high expectations. Bruno says he brought the house down with his facial expressions, Craig loves Natalie's choreography, Darcey comments on his bottom and Len gets booed for picking out he didn't lead on the balls of his plates of meat (inevitable gag) once.

So, whilst the likelihood is one of the bottom three goes, if they all dodge the dance off, Ainsley v Kirsty could be a very interesting fight. If either goes up against one of the people further up (say because they dance ok but are bottom in the public vote), I think they go.

Against each other, it's a toss up, dependant on whether Kirsty's nerves hold up. Having the same dance as a comparator will be easier for the judges to be technical.

At 12/1 and 12/1, both are good prices. I probably prefer the bet on Ainsley, as Kirsty seems more likely to be saved by the public, but I don't think we need to do more than back both to leave. Don't go nuts. It's a gamble when we haven't seen them dance properly in both disciplines.

That's my take anyway.

Best of luck.

^^^^

That is some incredible read, Tal. Even Camel, who claims not yo watch SCD, will like that.

I did manage to get a bit if shrapnel on Jeremy to go in the end. 

After a whole series of bad bets, I managed to get a decent price on Anita in the week.

Jamelia still drifting badly and you should be able to get close to 40/1. Think my first bet was 10/1...

Going well then

Jesus what a write up

Wasted Talent  :)

If somebody can point me at a better write up/review of Strictly, please point me at it!!!

Really good analysis and a very interesting read, well done!

Thank you. We'll see whether it was any good shortly!

Peter and Jay both looked very good in training but at 2/1 and 4/1 respectively to top the leaderboard, there's no value in either IMO. Peter looked a touch quick in his timing, but that's one part of one run through on Wednesday that I've seen. I'm still very keen to oppose him as winner for the time being but he will be good early on for sure.  

Katie will surprise I suspect, although I do wish she were allowed to use a traditional song.

Anita's partner is a bit of a Charleston expert, so I'm interested to see his routine.

As for Peter, he is doing his quickstep to Valerie, which has been used twice before, this being my favourite:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RtV-z06Ro5I

I so miss Matthew Cutler. The best dancer they have had on the show for sure.  

Ainsley and Natalie will be serving up a Salsa to ‘Don’t Touch My Tomatoes’ by Josephine Baker.

Anita and Gleb will be performing the Charleston to ‘Pencil Full Of Lead’ by Paolo Nutini.

Anthony and Oti will be Waltzing to ‘If You Don’t Know Me By Now’ by Simply Red.

Carol and Pasha will be performing the American Smooth to ‘Isn’t This A Lovely Day’ by Irving Berlin.

Daniel and Kristina will be performing the Charleston to ‘Let’s Misbehave’ by Cole Porter.

Georgia and Giovanni will be Waltzing to ‘Georgia On My Mind’ by Ray Charles.

Helen and Aljaž will be performing the Cha Cha to Uptown Girl by Billy Joel.

Iwan and Ola will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Sexy And I Know It’ by LMFAO.

Jamelia and Tristan will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Don’t Cha’ by Pussycat Dolls.

Jay and Aliona will be Waltzing to ‘See The Day’ by Dee C Lee.

Jeremy and Karen will be performing the American Smooth to ‘Happy Together’ by The Turtles.

Katie and Anton will be Tangoing to ‘Telephone’ by Lady Gaga feat. Beyonce.

Kellie and Kevin will be performing the Cha Cha to ‘Don’t Go Breaking My Heart’ by Elton John & Kiki Dee.

Kirsty and Brendan will be performing the Salsa to ‘Can’t Touch It’ by Ricki Lee.

Peter and Janette will be Quickstepping to ‘Valerie’ by The Zutons.

Very high skirt for Kellie. Be good to watch how straight her legs are. No hiding place in those.

High hem for Kirsty. The ruffle at the bottom will shake about like a furry dice on a rally car if she's getting her hips working.

Again, no hiding place for her.

First time on this forum that discussion of hem hasn't been about Holdem Manager.

Jamelia's legs are all over the place. She's been very brave but technically not the best.

Edit: 21 a touch generous IMO. A high bar for Darcey now. I'm expecting at least an eight from her tonight now.

Ha! Love it.

Best of blonde, this thread.

Love it when knowledge and enthusiasm are combined.

I think Kristina sold Daniel out a little. She could have been a little more reserved and not shown his lack of energy and performance up. His timing was excellent. He just massively ran out of puff.

23 will mean he is safe. 

I just accidentally saw the start of that Charleston number while I was bookmarking MOTD and am wondering if there's a new "dancing pig" in da house.

Two great lifts...

...but stone cold apart from that.

Lack of training shown up completely.

Judges are being kind to Kirsty. Apart from Bruno. 22 would be a massive achievement from here for her.

Edit: 20 is a fair set of marks. She is in trouble unless Tighty has spent the day buying laptops and phones.

Hmmm, Jay's haircut could be worth plenty more votes, he suddenly doesn't look like an eco-warrior.

He can dance, though. Second half was better. Never seen someone spotting on week two.

Methinks the dance training he had as a lad is helping...

Daniel's feet were better last week, mind.

Edit: 31 certainly deserved. He could be something special in Strictly terms. Let's not get carried away, of course, but a proper knock, that.

This is rotten.

Hilarious. But rotten.

I'll give you a clue on the score. This starts with a 1.



Edit: sorry, Iwan, but 13 was fair. He might still be saved by the public.

Well, Ola might be saved by the public and he'll be dragged along clinging onto her tassels.

Georgia was lost up top and it stemmed I think from her being on focused on remembering the steps. Terrible footwork.

It is so much easier having the man as the pro. Hid a lot of evils.

Delicately put :D

Natalie nearly kicked him in the face!

The crowd loved it. Lots of fun but he went completely wrong.  

"You dance like I cook: chuck it all in and hope for the best"

Nailed it, Len.

Ainsley overmarked at 26 but 23-24 would have been fair. It was broadly on time and significantly better than Kirsty's. That's what led to the score I think. "I gave her a five for her salsa and this was at least a point better"

Carol went wrong straight away. She has done well to carry on.

I like her. She really immersed herself into that and has obviously worked really hard.

It wasn't great, but a huge improvement.

The lack of movement is because she isn't pushing off on her heel on the first beat of the bar. She has to lower into it and push off as she goes onto her toes on the second beat.

She needs votes of course. But this is a BBC show so home soil. Who knows?

People watching, what's your take on the dances you've seen? Like things the judges didn't?

Kellie has much straighter legs than the other cha cha folk.

She is certainly in the dark horse camp.

I missed Carol as I didn't want to derive pleasure from watching someone fail badly.

So I turned over to watch the end of the Chelsea game.

As expected, Anthony's shoulder is stopping him from having his right elbow up. The result is they aren't doing much in hold, which isn't really acceptable.

It was OK though. Solid and unspectacular.

Glad to note the judges picked up on his footwork. Why they haven't for some of the others is beyond me.

In isolation, 19 is fair but 7 lower than Ainsley?

I've only just twigged that Anita has had two latin dances.

That's outrageous!

Wonderfully choreographed.

Terrific dance, Anita. Chip leader.


Edit: I called that wrong! Will have to watch that back!

Ambitious. But good.

Yes. I really enjoyed it.

Am not watching, I was just tuning in to watch the Rugby, and accidentally pressed the wrong channel.

I've just realised that were I ever to make it onto Strictly, I'd be Jeremy Vine.

He was pretty tez. Timing and footwork both good - Len spot on - but it's not going to be getting him through to next week. Needs help.

Quite so. Me too.

Katie!

Wow!

Just one step from glory.

What a difference proper music makes.


Edit: for one mistake and a little lightness in one kick, 28 is hideously undermarked. Again, 26 for Ainsley? Worth 30 of anyone's money.

Peter is too quick again in sections. He also went wrong at the start.

This shouldn't be more than Katie. Be interesting to see what they say.


Edit: All that criticism about poor technique and footwork and they give him 30. Incred.

Watching the rugby, barely seen any.  Andre pimp slot again??

Not quite last but close enough.

Helen has fantastic hips. Look how far forward her weight is. That's really hard for the beginners.  

Edit: Interesting criticism from the judges. Can't argue. I thought the hips were much more noticeable than for the others. If it was too pronounced, fair enough. She has a lot of talent.

My 3 year old.  "Where are the girls... There's too many boys."

Didn't think Anita was that great.  Solid but no more.  Eldest thought Ainsley and Ewan were hilarious.  

Anyone on Anthony first to go?

If he gets into the dance off, he won't improve on his performance tonight.

Kirsty also needs to prepare to dance again.

That would be a close one if it's those two. Ainsley should be safe now.

How popular are the bottom three with the public then?

Just thought that as I saw the scoreboard. #sadface.

Right. Rugby.

Now where did I put those Man Points..?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQqkTaNWoAEGfv5.jpg)

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CQqkTagWwAAE7jk.jpg)

A song from one of my favourite musicals and, rather than watching Anton and Katie doing a quickstep to it, I get to watch Jeremy Vine doing a Charleston.

Marvellous.

From a betting point of view, is Peter Andre as nailed on a winner as the bookies seem to think? If so, who do you think will come second?

off the top of my head

final three

Andre
Helen George
Georgia professional Manc

top five

Katie Derham
Anita Rani


Andre appears to be bafflingly popular. Watching gogglebox the other night and they showed them watching the Andre week 1 dance. Everyone loved it, all ages.

If she withstands all the ringer stuff that Pixie Lott got, Helen George could beat him though on pure talent

"What song shall we give the boxer?"

"Er, the music from Rocky?"

"Brilliant idea, Will - so creative"

Though the choice of Cantina Band for a Charleston is inspired.

Did notice that Darcey Bussell keeps bringing up 'the reason your legs were too straight there was because you did so much ballet as a child'

Are you ruling Jay out?  It would be good if he was useless as I have an underwater lay outstanding. 

I watched Anita Rani on who do you think you are last night.  It was quite eye opening.  Would recommend it.

And for laughs, have a look at Betfair Sportsbook's idea of reasonable strictly odds.  If ever a company was due a name change...at the rate they are going they will have 6 listed below 5/1 by the time the week is out.  Would still be surprised if they laid me a tenner. 

I'm really busy this week. I'll do a longer piece when time permits but in short:

- there is a clear division at the moment between those with dance experience/training and those without it.
- this is masking the level of people's work and progress
- a couple of the professionals have made a point on the show or on it takes two about them having "complete beginners"
- Peter's strengths in his two dances so far have been in the parts not on the syllabus of each of the dances he was doing.
- Peter is overrated by the market significantly and it remains to be seen whether he actually improves as a ballroom and latin dancer.

The more I think about it the more I like Katie because surely there will be a groundswell of support for Anton to win the whole thing if he makes it through to the last few weeks.

i can see where you are coming from on this, but at the end of the day if he gets to the final its not a judging competition its a popularity vote. will be looking out for digital spy polls etc but the sense i have is that he spans generations with his popularity

and until then he's likely to be kept up there by judges scores

this is what is stopping me opposing him

meanwhile, according to ITT, Ainsley is dancing the cha-cha as a penguin this week

I really like Natalie, think she's very good. Reduced to doing comedy with a gurning TV chef. Sigh.

Met Peter Andre 3 times

Never met a bloke who spends more time with his fans talks to them goes way beyond e.t.c

Very nice polite guy who works very hard

From seeing him was surprised at the spread of age group that go as well

Will be very very hard to beat in a public vote

Compare him to Mark Wright from the Essex programme. How much more popular is he?

The public have a habit of voting who they like to a point and then voting just for the best dancer. Wright fell in the semi finals, which was a surprise to an extent, given his apparent popularity.

If Andre doesn't improve along with the others, he will get marked by the judges and that will lead to the public changing their mind before the final.

...perhaps unless he is in for the Tour...

Thanks for the replies all, still torn as to who to back!

I'll have no criticism of Ainsley in the thread given I have now backed him at 80/1+.  I did notice that they have started referring to her as PoorNat on the Betfair strictly thread. 

No idea who mark wright is

So I suggest Andre is more popular but could be wrong

I hope you don't think this a brag Horsey.

He's railtard1 on here.

:)

Not at all

My Mum liked him on tv and went to see him when he visited fairly locally every xmas. He spent at least 2 hours with people in wheelchairs first whilst i was there on each occasion and remembered people from year to year.

Quite how long he was there i have no idea but must have been pushing 8 hours.

Always had/has 4 bodyguards as well which seemed slightly overkill but they were very good as well

Week Three is Movie Week

The first of the special weeks (Hallowe'en and Blackpool the other two), everybody goes a bit mad. The costumes are even more flamboyant, the professionals come up with outlandish numbers and judges often get brought along in the hysteria and give a few extra marks. We can expect the person who tops the leaderboard to get 32. I'd go as far as to say we may well see our first nine tomorrow.

We are looking for less of this...

(http://i2.cdnds.net/14/41/618x423/uktv-scd-111014-5.jpg)

and more of this...

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YNaLLFnpCdA

It's two hours of big, camp craziness. Logically, this favours the more energetic dances.

As if to prove a point, the Coralol Odds Compiler put his prices up at 6:45, while we had yet to see a few of the performers' latest footage on It Takes Two. Brave move, sir. By 7:30, the top two had drifted and he'd nicked a bit off the rest. I mean why bother sticking the prices up in the first place? Anyway...

The Top of the Market - Highest Scorer

Tough to get this right, because everyone still has weaknesses that are all too easy to spot, so it's a case of working out who might have the fewest.

Ok, so let's start with his Peterness. Dressed as a pirate, with one of the best choreographers on the show as his partner, we can expect all sorts from Cap'n Pete. However, his paso footage is all footwork and no shape. Ian Waite was critical on the Wednesday/Thursday Warm Up and the footage from yesterday we saw this evening has no sign of improvement. He doesn't look the part to me at all. He won't be on last this week (surely!), so no pressure on the judges to overmark him... 3/1? No thanks.

Jay - who has gone from Mick Hucknall to Howard Donald, after his barnetectomy - has great feet and his weight in his jive footage looks very good. It's tough for taller, stronger people to jive (ever tried it at a wedding? Hard enough spinning auntie mavis to Jailhouse Rock. Try doing a full routine with Aliona Vilani who is dressed as Uma Thurman). I like that I keep seeing him in dance shoes and Aliona can play to his strengths for sure by putting lots of spins in it. He deserves to be joint favourite, but 3/1 is about the money. He may tire late on and his flicks aren't that good.

Helen is third at 9/2. She looks excellent and Aljaz has a reputation for working his dancers hard, which Helen complained about today on the sofa with Zoe! It shows, though, and she would not surprise anyone by topping the leaderboard with her foxtrot. It's the hardest ballroom dance to do, but early weeks favour the women in ballroom, because the pro men can lead and cover up a multitude of sins.

Katie joins her at 9/2. Now I think she also looks good and those legs will be doing good things on the dancefloor, no question. Anton being top of the leaderboard in a latin number? I'd want more than 9/2 for that. The judges might save their nines for a quickstep, methinks.

Georgia May Foote is doing a rumba. It's a very difficult dance and she is being pushed to do some intricate moves. She has complained about a lot of spins and Giovanni has said he has put a double spin in, which is pretty serious. It also suggests there will be a lot of light and shade in it, where there's fast bits and then slow bits. That's incredibly hard to pull off. Week three? Hmmm... There is also the fact this will be a slow, sensual dance in a sea of lively, penguin-fuelled hyperbole. It could easily be a bit out of tune with the rest. Darcey and Craig will be critical if she misses a note. 9/1 is not attractive to me at all.

That leaves us with more before we get into the no-channers...

Anita is dancing to Ghost's Unchained Melody (not Robson and Jerome). It is an American Smooth, which is normally done as a foxtrot, but can be any ballroom dance. Gleb has chosen a Viennese Waltz. Whilst there are only four actual moves in a Viennese Waltz (natural turn, reverse turn, Fleckerl and Reverse Fleckerl), it's probably the hardest version to do as an American Smooth. Now, he has danced as a pro on the American and Russian versions of this show, so he knows what he is doing. There is only one reason he has chosen to do a Viennese Waltz: because he believes she can do it. Her footwork looks good in training and she has been threatening to turn a good one in, in the first two weeks. This may be her week. 7/1 might be a spot. My only notes of concern are we have yet to see her in hold in the show and, going by the training footage, there seems to be a fair bit of - to use a Len-ism - fannying about. If that happens, she might get three favourable judges' scores and get just a severrrrn from Head Judge.

The one I really like is Kellie. She has coped really well with two tough routines so far. Kevin likes to test his partners and that can work both ways. He does excel in the theme weeks, though: remember Frankie Bridge last year doing "I Want To Be In America" as a Paso Doble last year? This week: Star Wars Charleston? Amazing. More importantly...she looks absolutely fantastic in training. We all love a Charleston and we all know what Craig wants to see: swivel. There's tons of it. If she swivels any more she'll break her ankles. They look in sync, they have a ton of work to do in one of these, but it's a fun week and everyone will be on their feet if she nails it. 8/1 is a corking price. I'd be happy to back her at 5/1.

Kellie Bright is my value tip for the top this week.

Nice to see Camel has been on this thread - I sense he is a closet SCD fan.

Highest Scorer market now:

7/2 Jay
4/1 Peter
9/2 Helen
9/2 Kellie
5/1 Katie
6/1 Anita
8/1 Georgia May

66/1 bar

The selection above is 120% and that's without the rest of the field. They're not even trying, are they?

It's a market largely aimed at recreationals, and if it were 200% they would still bet. Why sell something for a quid if you can get £2?

Absolutely. No fun though :)

Elsewhere today, Anthony's one armed Paso Doble will see his bottom half being praised and the rest of him looking weird. He could end up in the dance off this weekend. Have you ever seen a one armed bullfighter?

Outsider for the lowest scorer? Daniel O'Donnell as Danny Zuko? Jamelia may struggle, too. Having her longer than Kirsty Gallacher is an error for sure. Kirsty will post a solid but unspectacular score tonight: 25 ish.

I might be out for the live action tonight, as I'm playing chess this afternoon. Feel free to post your own commentary and thoughts here. It will help me judge people's opinions and perceptions of what they're watching.

I wonder if Kirstie's husband will text her to not take the doggie costume and make-up off and come straight home just as she is..

Jay worst lay ever

Timing just looked very good in that dance.  Thought he was supposed to be awful pre show?  Much better than the rest.  Unlucky Tal. 

I maintain the man has no natural rhythmn or movement......he can't half dance though - annoying.

As posted earlier ITT, he has danced before.

However, that 37 was undermarked. Absolutely spellbinding. He has clearly worked hard in the last couple of days on his flicks because he was super sharp.

@Doobs, not sure if that was directed at me, but I didn't say he was awful. I said he deserved to be favourite.

Almost got a chop but I don't mind losing to something that good.

No idea what has happened in the week with Anton and Katie but something must have. No way they choreograph that little dancing without a reason. I think the judges were as surprised as the rest of us.

Anthony is in a world of trouble.

Nice to see them finding fault in something Peter did.

Kirsty doesn't look like she can win this competition. Helen does.

I didn't aim anything at you Tal.  I heard Jay was awful early on, and there was a bit of stuff around where he said he wasn't much of a dancer.  So I laid him at about 6.0 early doors long before you had piped up.  First week I was thinking what a good lay that was.  Even last week I was thinking well so what, he can walk round gracefull.  After about 30 seconds this week I was thinking the lay was bloody awful.  Might have to just suck it up.  I do like the Anita bet, and still think Jamelia must be a bet if she can put it all together.  Ainsley was terrible this week. 

Fwiw I don't know if you heard but the digital spy strictly spoiler thread malfunctioned last week.  Got Iwan right, but think they had Kirsty in the dance off and not Jamelia.

My mistake. Sorry. Was just confused more than anything else! He looked exceptionally nervous the first week and a little better last week. Aliona sees a lot in him I think. He must be favourite now for the win. Not saying I'd back him at a short price but he is certainly in front at the moment. Whether he can samba or foxtrot, we will have to see.


Wowzers! No, I hadn't heard about that at all. Sack the mole!

there's a lot of editorial in this that can sway things

helen george gets to waft around in a lovely dress, looking a million dollars whilst kirsty gets to dress up as a dog and by the end is looking like  wookie. seems fair

i dislike theme weeks. i hate props.

give me claudia (not tess), craig being snarky and the rest will take care of itself, doesn't need gimmicks

as for jay, someone appears to have kicked him up the backside. looked completely miserable, disinterested and wooden before week one.

 

This is Jay. Seems like a little googling might have been a plan....

Born on July 24, 1990, in the Newark section of Nottinghamshire, England, James "Jay" McGuiness was an active child who loved to sing and dance in front of the mirror with his four siblings, including his fraternal twin brother, Thomas. He also developed a love for animals, reading and art at a very young age. In addition to attending the Roman Catholic schools Holy Trinity in Newark and All Saints in Mansfield, he pursued his creativity by attending Newark's Charlotte Hamilton School of Dance (where he was bullied by his mates for expressing an interest in ballet) and the prestigious Midlands Academy of Dance and Drama in Nottingham.

Looks like a big move, bookies make him a strong favourite. Overreaction?

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/winner?dcmp=twt19

i got Jay completely wrong. knew he had some dance background but before week 1 he looked like he was completely hating it, and a surly character.in the group dance the night the partners were announced he had all the movement of a young sapling trying to sway in the wind but tethered with a stick

i still don't warm to him at all but that jive was something else

not quite jill halfpenny and darren bennett, primus inter pares of all SCD jives, but getting close to it

I do Google them all, just sometimes stuff gets missed because I am pretty time short.  I guess it would be easier to spot today as it is now all over Twitter.

Ok, the jive was unexpectedly Very Good, but he could be a one trick pony & looks to me to be a bit of a moody teenager prone to emotional swing.

Anyhow I'm smitten with Helen.

Yeah fair enough. It was the fourth hit on google when searching his name on Saturday. I only did so because my mum swore he must have had dance training so wanted to check.

Tighty you could have worse case scenario there. Maybe he lacked confidence on the first couple of weeks but is now "falling in love with dance again" and growing in confidence every week. The sort of stuff the public love.

Alas, poor Anthony - we hardly knew ye.

*moment of silence in memory of my money*

Jay's relationship with wikipedia seems kind of weird.  He doesn't have his own page, which seems weird to me given the strictly dancers have their own pages and so do some very average poker players.  Then if you look at the history, the reference to his dance schooling has appeared and disappeared a few times over the last months.  That probably goes some way to explaining why I missed it, but even if I had seen it, it maybe wouldn't have stopped me laying the 2nd favourite as I am guessing at least half have been to theatre/dance school.

I am not laying off at these prices as my instinct is the price must be a lay, so I have done that instead.  I was a bit lucky in the first place as I only laid about a third of the amount I intended, because he drifted out fairly rapidly after I put the original lay up.  About time I turned it round, the series has been just a series of bad bets so far for me.

FWIW Anita is now 18 and Jamelia 170! 

 

Yeah probably not clear from my post, but I meant it seems to suddenly be a lot higher in google search now than it likely was before. I didn't google him a while back but I certainly don't remember much chat about him being a trained dancer that almost everyone is talking about now as if it's always been known.

Trained dancer stuff tends not to go down well with the british public does it? So might be a value lay now if you think a) he's peaked and b) the public will turn a bit.

It's almost as if Jay (or more probably, his agent) remembered what happened to Natalie Gumede and Pixie Lott in the past, who both got stick for being ringers, and deliberately took a dive in the first couple of weeks to throw people off the scent, but it seems to have backfired due to him being too good on Saturday, as a backlash could be brewing (the public don't like being taken for mugs).

http://tv.bt.com/tv/tv-news/should-jay-mcguiness-be-allowed-to-compete-on-strictly-come-dancing-why-stars-with-dance-school-training-should-be-banned-11364010141424

That article also says that Anthony had a pop at this after he got booted out.

saturday's song choice and dances

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/29bfb417-442d-4f02-af05-d767b2e57281

Ainsley and Natalie will be Waltzing to What a Wonderful World by Louis Armstrong

Anita and Gleb’s Hips Don’t Lie as they Samba to Shakira

Carol and Pasha will Paso to Trad’s Espana Cani

Daniel and Kristina will dance the American Smooth to Frank Sinatra’s Fly Me To The Moon

Georgia and Giovanni will Quickstep to S Club 7’s Reach

Helen and Aljaz will Salsa to Doctor Beat’s Miami Sound Machine

Jamelia and Tristan will do the Charleston to Straight Up by Scott Bradlee’s Postmodern Jukebox

Jay and Aliona will Quickstep to My Generation by The Who

Jeremy and Karen will Jive to Bobby Darin’s Splish Splash

Katie and Anton will perform the Viennese Waltz to Elvis Presley’s If I Can Dream

Kellie and Kevin will Foxtrot to Dream A Little Dream by Mama Cass

Kirsty and Brendan will Paso to U2’s Beautiful Day

And last but not least, Peter and Janette will dance the Tango to New Order’s Blue Monday.

BBC blog obviously written by someone too young to know who Gloria Estefan is.

A raucous crowd in Sevilla have gathered in the heat of a blistering sun. They are here to witness a hero slay a mighty beast. With a piercing fanfare, they stand to welcome the matador, caped, striding forward in leather boots, sending shuddering thuds across the arena with each step.

And there, before him, stands his foe. They will fight to the death, encircled by a baying cacophony of voices. They demand a victor.

And then some idiot presses play and we hear U flipping 2.

Kirsty isn't getting a fair deal, here.

I've not been able to put any time in to study the footage or to watch last week's show again. I can't recommend a bet today.

Not caught up myself.  Stuck to laying Jay and his price keeps getting shorter!  Put some horses up on the other thread, as can't be worse

For small stakes, for highest score of the night, I've had a one point interest bet on Kellie and two points on Anita, both of whom look impressive in their latest training. Kellie doing a very slow, traditional foxtrot and has a wonderful frame. Doubts over lack of training time a concern. Anita looks like she has a good number coming. Would not be surprised to see 30+ at all.

Expecting judges to be harsher tonight after last week's back-slap-athon.

All this.

Appalling song choice and not only did it fail to get her going, it masked the ability she has.

Whoever chose the song needs a new job.

Ha, agreeing with yourself Tal.  She was overmarked, needs to work on her masking of emotions when criticised.  Never goes down well.  Anita looked undermanned.  Don't know what was going on with the 7s for Georgia.  She looked very good to me.  Thought we had a rival to Jay the Pro Dancer.

Good idea to dress Jeremy as the set, so you couldn't see his feet move. 

Georgia was quite skippy in the chassés (side-close-side) and was a bit behind the music at times. Her frame wasn't particularly good either.

I misread Anita. Fairly marked for me. Gleb was clever in that he didn't put much bounce in his own part of the dance, meaning he didn't show her lack of bounce up. That's a really important skill of the best pros.

On which note, proper foxtrot from Kevin and Kellie.

Boooom Jamelia. 

Thought Georgia better than both 32s though

Jay's having some very wobbly moments here.

From Tony McCoy to Choc Thornton.

Awful. Should be getting fives.

No idea what Aliona has been teaching him this week. He may have been overcome by his own expectation.

Get the ringer out.  Wk 4 for him my arse

Two sevens is a disgrace.

He is obviously better than that dance. Looking at him now, he had the weight of the world on his shoulders. He'll get 36 next week and this will all be forgotten.

And a very good evening to Helen's hips.

Darcey talks to Helen in Secret Ballet Dancer language.

Kirsty's time in Strictly coming to an end.   

Don't suppose Peter is on first next week?

Peter back to his familiar position.

::)

Anton last. That must be good.

A-MAY-ZING!

Anton shows just how good he is in tails.

By far the most complicated routine of the series.

I only wish Bet365 did printed betting vouchers so I could kiss it.

Though, paired with Anton that's always going to be one of your top dances.

i don't know who has gone but would expect kirsty to go tonight

she has really had a rough deal. her VTlast night ( i hate the training VTs during the show, get on with it) said that they wanted their paso to have a real spanish element

so why the f do they get given beautiful day by U2. its not a paso song! it hasn't got a paso rhythm.2/4 timing i believe

meanwhile carol "apple of the bbc's eye" kirkwood gets traditional paso music and can get in the mood and the pro pasha can flare his nostrils and basically help her put on a show

kirsty was quite right to call out the song choice, which was ridiculous. she does suffer from a touch of the gabby logan's though, which i expect is offputting

Christina makes a mistake! That's cooked his goose, surely?

I smell a rat. He seemed resigned to leaving before the dance off

First the rugby, now Daniel leaving - a bad day for Ireland get worse.

The only way it could deteriorate further would be if U2 forced another album onto everyone's iPhones.

If the producers wanted Kirsty to stay, they've got a funny way of showing it!

Ainsley and Natalie are doing the Jive to Bill Haley and the Comets Shake Rattle and Roll

Anita and Gleb are dancing the Tango to Temper Trap’s Sweet Disposition

Carol and Pasha are dancing the Viennese Waltz to Seal’s I’ve Been Loving You Too Long

Georgia and Giovanni are dancing the Salsa to Sylvester’s You Make Me Feel (Mighty Real)

Helen and Aljaz are doing the Quickstep to Diana Ross and the Supremes’ You Can’t Hurry Love

Jamelia and Tristan are dancing the Foxtrot to Celine Dion’s Because You Loved Me

Jay and Aliona are doing the Paso to Bon Jovi’s It's My Life

Jeremy and Karen are dancing the Waltz to Elvis Costello’s She

Katie and Anton are dancing the Salsa to Michael Buble’s It Had Better Be Tonight

Kellie and Kevin are doing the Jive to One Direction’s One Way Or Another

Kirsty and Brendan are dancing the Viennese Waltz to David Gray’s This Year’s Love

And Peter and Janette are dancing the Rumba to Ed Sheeran’s Thinking Out Loud

So in what way is it Seal's I've Been Loving You Too Long, and One Direction's One Way or Another, and yet it's Sylvester's You Make Me Feel Mighty Real?

Why not Jimmy Somerville's You Make Me Feel Mighty Real?

Even the Elvis Costello song is a Charles Aznavour cover

I'm sure the BBC are out to send me on tilt every week.

In riggaments news, I see Plastic Peter gets the song with the video showing a romantic style Strictly dance (that has 770 million views on Youtube) for him to do his romantic Strictly dance.

(http://www.ziardecluj.ro/sites/default/files/styles/large/public/media/image/2014/07/breaking_0.jpg?itok=1ir9okmJ)

Kirsty gets actual dance!

Plus, if her head isn't right, she can say she was doing her David Gray impression. Should get the post red zone bounce in votes this week anyway. Suspect she will be one of the favourites to go but will likely be looking elsewhere.

I don't get how Jamelia is going to do a foxtrot to that. She gets the bum draw this week. Training footage will be worth looking at. Is she in trainers again?

First instinct is Georgia's salsa will be too fast but I'll have to see her footage. She has done jive and quickstep already but salsa is all about hip rotation and technique, which I can see being a challenge for her. It's not like she got any practice at doing latin basics in the rumba (ahem...Mr Choreographer, Giovanni!).

I think I am getting resigned to doing my money on Jay.

Jay well and truly messes up, meanwhile on digital spy

Week 4: Which was your favourite couple?

Ainsley & Natalie
6
1.57%

Anita & Gleb
34
8.90%
 


Carol & Pasha
12
3.14%
 
Daniel & Kristina
5
1.31%

Georgia & Giovanni
33
8.64%
 
Helen & Aljaz
18
4.71%
 
Jamelia & Tristan
43
11.26%
 
Jay & Aliona
100
26.18%
 
Jeremy & Karen
10
2.62%
 
Katie & Anton
97
25.39%
 
Kellie & Kevin
17
4.45%
 
Kirsty & Brendan
2
0.52%
 
Peter & Janette
5
1.31%

There is a thread on there which starts
Kirsty..... I didn't put a foot wrong
I haven't read it, but suspect Tal should avert his eyes!

116 replies so far, am setting the line at 1-2 for the positive ones

Here we go, then.

Highest Scorer

We are starting to see the pack catching up as those with no dance experience show promise and learn the skills. This logically means there's a higher chance of a chop at the top, so we should be thinking of where the value might be.

Peter has to do a slow dance, which we haven't seen him try yet. I expect him to have hips but the mood of the dance is going to be a challenge, after a run of quick and intense dances (randomly selected, I am sure) in the early weeks. We will find out tonight whether he is a genuine contender for the glitter ball tonight, IMO. The rumba is by far the hardest dance for men - a lot of apparent inactivity but you have to keep fluid motion through the body and soft hips with a straight leg, which will feel unnatural but looks great - so anything above 28 would be a serious score. This early, I'd add 4 to any male rumba score for a rough idea of how he does.

Katie has an interesting dance tonight. Anton's last choreography for a latin was the Pretty Woman cha cha of week three, which was heavily and rightly chastised for a lack of content. Anton is not the most natural salsa dancer and he won't have danced the salsa at all outside Strictly; it isn't part of the traditional ten dances and Anton would almost exclusively be in ballroom competitions anyway. However, the judges will be watching and he needs to produce a decent dance for Katie, who has great legs and a natural rhythm, so she should be able to do well tonight. Expect lots of "armography", but that means there are risks of it going wrong as one of them (and it could be either - Anton himself admitted making a mistake in their Viennese Waltz last week) loses timing. I'd not want to be backing her to top the leaderboard two weeks on the bounce.

Jay is comically short again. He will deliver a good Paso - he strikes me as being a good character dancer - but 7/4 is bonkers. 5/2 would be on the tight side of fair. Doobs's post above suggests the bookies are taking bets on Jay, which explains why we shouldn't be following suit. I don't like the song as a Paso, but Aliona is adamant it works. Aliona is putting too much content in her choreography for Jay, in my view. He would be better off with less to remember and doing it well.

Kellie's jive looks fantastic. She is a very serious contender IMO. However, her greatest asset is also her biggest threat: Kevin. The smartest pro dancers on Strictly (off the top of my head, Matthew Cutler, Ola Jordan, Lilya Kopylova, Darren Bennett, Artem Chigvintsev, Brendan Cole, Natalie Lowe) take a little off the sharpness of their dancing, particularly in latin, so that their partner looks the same as them. It's called underdancing. Looking at their training, I'm seeing the same problem as Suzanna Reid had with Kevin, as his kicks and flicks are supremely sharp (start later, finish earlier), which masks how good Kellie's are. She will still score well but the syncopation in the side by side parts of the jive might not look as good as it actually is.

Georgia continues to be solid and unspectacular. I don't expect her to be any different tonight. I still believe she struggles with quicker stuff and this salsa feels quick and involved. She will be fine but 6/1 to top the leaderboard is no price at all.

Anita has a lot going for her and I do anticipate she will go deep in this series. However, this doesn't feel like her dance to me. The tango will be like Georgia and solid, with lots to like and a few bits to improve upon. Gleb is pushing her, no question, and I would think upper twenties again is realistic.

Helen has been criticised for her ballet legs. She is going to be very good at a light touch quickstep. Aljaž can glide her across the floor and her long, rangy legs will carry her effortlessly. They have excellent chemistry and put the hours in to refine the technical bits...and this dance has a lot of detail, the execution of which is what separates an excellent quickstep from a good one. 6/1 is not bad at all. It isn't a world beating price but it's better than I expected. I had her at 5/1 ish and with Jay being falsely short, there's room for a bet here, I think.

Next Elimination

Obvious stuff is obvious.

Jeremy will be worst but will survive thanks to the public. Carol might go but you feel it's a week or two too soon for the darling of the BBC to waltz off awkwardly into the sunset.

Kirsty is 5/4 favourite and I think that's massively out of line. There is often a bounce after being in the dance off: the contestant has a new incentive and the public don't want to lose someone. She has been in the media a lot this week (front page of the metro yesterday, interview with the Daily Mail in the week, a few charity things), which will help her exposure. She has also found a dance she really likes and she's very good at pivots, which, in the Viennese Waltz, is very important. She has a strong core that will enable her to keep frame and posture intact. Against that, Brendan has had a family issue this week, if reports are accurate, and they have not been able to do much training. I expect her to stay nonetheless.

Ainsley's jive will look awful next to Kellie's but he might be funny enough to stop in. Just.

The one I really like to go next is Jamelia. She's been in the dance off before so we know votes are an issue. She is doing a foxtrot which she doesn't look suited to at all. The music is bizarre and I believe she will struggle. 7/1 with betway but 6/1 with actual bookies. I like this.

Cliffs
Helen to be top tonight
Jamelia to go.
Each 6/1

Kirsty's price to go really is ridiculous - who is she likely to be in a dance off with that is going to be better than her? Carol, Ainsley, Jeremy she wins against. Are Anita, or anyone higher up the leaderboard going to be unpopular enough to finish in the bottom two?

Essentially, the 5/4 on Kirsty is a bet that she's in the dance off against Jamelia and loses.

Exactly my thoughts. She won't get much more grace though.

Think she loses to Ainsley.  She really isnt popular, so not convinced she beats Jeremy even if better than him.  i'd happily take evens next week if she doesn't go this week.

good call on Helen. unlucky not to scoop

is it just me? the judging last night was eccentric and frankly barmy. people over-marked, under-marked, lots of favouritism towards certain couples...savaging of others

Jamelia for example was about 6 points too high, katie about 6 points too low just to give two examples

just wish they would judge it straight, and less of the histrionics

and the music choices often don't suit the music. salsa is not disco, its cuban! just rename the dance disco if you are going to give them that music

This afternoon, Betfair sportsbook were one of only 2 bookies still offering prices on Ainsley to win.  A tiny bit of research would have told them he was out already.  I couldn't resist trying to put £50 on with them.  They offered me min 10p, max 25p..  Can't be too careful.

Anita and Gleb  are dancing a wicked Waltz to Once Upon A Dream by Lana Del Rey

Carol and Pasha are dancing a rattling Rumba to I Think I Love You by The Partridge Family

Georgia and Giovanni are doing a terrifying Tango to Ghostbusters by Ray Parker Junior

Jamelia and Tristan are dancing a jeepers-creepers Jive to The Time Warp from the Rocky Horror Picture Show

Jay and Aliona are dancing a scary American Smooth to Lil Red Riding Hood by Sam the Sham and The Pharaohs

Jeremy and Karen are doing a spooky Salsa to Thriller by Michael Jackson

Helen and Aljaz are dancing a spine-tingling Samba to Take Your Mama by Scissor Sisters

Katie and Anton are dancing a petrifying Paso to Phantom Of The Opera by Steve Harley and Sarah Brightman

Kellie and Kevin are dancing a paranormal Paso to Schools Out by Glee Cast and Hedwig's Theme by John Williams

Kirsty and Brendan are dancing a teeth-chattering Charleston to Bad Romance by Scott Bradlee’s Postmodern Jukebox

And last, but by no means least, Peter and Janette are dancing a phantom Foxtrot to Ghost by Ella Henderson

Halloween week really should GTFO.


It's like they pulled dance names out of a hat then hit shuffle on iTunes.

Some incongruous adjectives there!

A spine-tingling salsa to Take Your Mama by Scissor Sisters?

Have they heard the song before?

Am looking forward to WWW to see how they're getting on.

(http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/images/ic/976x549_b/p01j471n.jpg)

Jeremy's salsa is going to be about as slow as it gets. They could tango to that!

You have to suspend rational thought in Halloween week. It's more a family-friendly sideshow than a dance contest. I came to that conclusion a few years ago after getting annoyed about the absurdity of it. Seems to have reduced the blood pressure.

This is Halloween Week done properly: series 8, Scott Maslen and Natalie Lowe do a Viennese Waltz. They got 39.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iObi3bQ4BvE

Next elimination is any 2 from Jeremy, Carol, Jemelia and Kirsty.

I think Jeremy and Carol must lose if facing anyone but each other.  I figure it must be odds on one of those 2 is in the bottom 2 and loses.  Carol is about 3/1 which seems fair.  Jeremy was 8/1+ on Betfair just now, which seems very very generous. 

I tried the Sportsbook and they maxed me at £2.50 at 7/1 when 10x that was available on the exchange at 8/1+.  How do these people grow their profits so much each year?

Anyway I snaffled it all on the exchange, wouldn't put anyone off 7/1+.  Such a good price.

Vine

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/10/29/strictly-come-dancing-jeremy-vine-trolls_n_8415396.html?1446112641&ncid=tweetlnkushpmg00000067

looking at the footage i do think this is the week for carol to go

in a rumba, looks uneasy, unnatural, stilted. no sensuality or sex appeal as a pairing at all

think vine is so popular he survives on votes, avoids the dance off

kirsty beats carol in the dance off


thoughts?

So difficult to know as we're not betting on the dances at all (we all know who'll be at the bottom end of the leaderboard) but we're betting on the voting which is a black hole.

Is Carol sitting on top of the voting each week, like John Sergeant was, making her invulnerable to the dance off or is she just surviving by the skin of their teeth?

I'm with you on Carol. I think it might be her time. I suspect Kirsty might get close to her highest score tomorrow, where one or two might surprise the other way.

Georgia 40/1 to go next is a little tempting, although you have to find someone to beat her in the dance off.

Must admit I'm still surprised to see Kellie at 12/1 to win. Lost a lot of weight, supported by the BBC and has the best all round dancer in the competition with her.

You can see the polling on digital spy and neither is doing that well in the polls.  If it is close at the bottom with a few equal scores fhen it is much easier to jump 5 places and miss the playoff.  Carol and Jeremy both going to struggle if the scoring at the bottom is spread about.

Judges making sure they have room to give Peter tens when he dances last.

::)

Peter not on first tonight?  Refreshing change.  You think he has made a switch from ITV2 to BBC4?

Odd how they front loaded the show with the Halloween horrors - Jeremy sitting on top of the leaderboard after 4 dances was WTF?

Hate the theme weeks.

completely wrong music and often the dances bear no resemblance to what they are meant to be. Peter's foxtrot wasn't one. carol's rumba was about as sexy as a fish finger factory.

peter and helen in the pimp slots again. anita undermarked.

Anita and Gleb are Jiving to ‘The Boy Does Nothing’ by former Strictly winner Alesha Dixon.


Carol and Pasha dance the American Smooth to ‘Man! I feel Like a Woman’ by Shania Twain.


Georgia and Giovanni dance the Samba to ‘Volare’ by The Gipsy Kings.


Helen and Aljaz will Rumba to ‘Hello” by Adele.


Jamelia and Tristan perform the Viennese Waltz to ‘Trouble’ by Ray LaMontagne.


Jay and Aliona perform the Argentine Tango to ‘Diferente’ by The Gotan Project.


Jeremy and Karen are dancing the Tango to ’Go West’ by The Village People.


Katie and Anton will Quickstep to ‘42nd Street’ from the musical 42nd Street.


Kellie and Kevin are going to Waltz to ‘Love Ain’t Here Anymore’ by Take That.


Peter and Janette will Charleston to ‘Do your Thing’ by Basement Jaxx.

Is someone as image conscious as Peter going to be able to embrace the silliness of a Charleston?

If Jeremy and Carol really are stacking up phone votes every week then someone is going to get a real shock when they're in the danceoff with Jamelia.

I've thrown a dart at Peter to go this week at 40/1, a lot more in hope than expectation.

(http://cdn.hotstockmarket.com/e/eb/239x294px-ebb22674_not-sure-if-serious.jpg)

Riiiiiiiiiiight

sadly thought Andre looked to be getting right into his charleston on ITT training footage

jamelia and carol bottom 2

jay top of leader board, assuming his AT is as the training shows

Very tough to pick between Georgia, Helen and Kellie as to who has impressed me most in training this week. The footage doesn't scream tens...but it's definitely giving a subtle nod, wink and a cough for them.

Peter has his perfect dance in a Charleston. Janette has really played a blinder with the song: ideal for his jerky, hip hop style. Here comes a prediction...he will get his highest score of the series tomorrow and won't top it before he leaves the show. OK, his highest is 32 but they'll do a decent number for sure. In the conventional dances, I think he has plateaued.

I love a good waltz and Kevin (Kellie's partner) is the one of the best ballroom boys. I am surprised they're the outsiders of the obvious ones for highest scorer. 6/1 is tempting.  

Helen has such wonderful legs and the straight leg might play out better in a rumba than in the bouncier dances. She still needs to get into the floor but it's a subtler motion and, with her elegant arms and being an actress, I'm looking forward to her dance.

Georgia - as I'm tired of saying - gets a fast dance every week. This is a good one, though. I'd personally like her weight a little further forward than it is in yesterday's training footage but it's a minor point with good hip rotation and neat footwork. She should be well suited to this one.

As she was top last week and the judges have a habit of giving someone else top marks each week, I'd be minded against backing Georgia.

Jay has struggled this week with training, according to reports. Surely he will be good in an Argentine Tango? He's not a 2/1 jolly though. Odds on to win is frankly bonkers.

Anita might suffer from Gleb's phenomenal jive legs. She looks good but Gleb commented tonight that energy levels are hard to maintain, which implies enough to avoid backing her, when we are starting to get to the fine margin portion of the competition.

Katie will perform well in the quickstep. I'm not confident in 37. I loved her Viennese Waltz but, having watched it back, it wasn't as good as I thought it was. Good, don't get me wrong, but I've not seen 36+ form from her yet.

Thoughts?

Peter full of energy and that went exactly as expected.

However, he was badly out of sync with Janette a number of times: too slow at times and in front of her at others.

The judges have set a low bar tonight. I am expecting a very high scoring night. 38 might not win.

They've got the whole dancefloor to work with and Tristan still choreographs Jamelia clanking into the guitar.

::)

Fair play to Carol. She's worked hard all series and lost a lot of weight, getting much better in the process, but this might be the end of the road for her. 

that wasn't a rumba

no hip action

lifeless

not top for me

I'm really annoyed at Aljaž. Why have someone as talented as that and give her two opening outs and a load of spins?

Very disappointing.


She did have hips. Bruno is being harsh there because rumba hips are different to the other latin dances. I suspect she got lost in the moment a bit towards the end.

Nevertheless, completely agree with Len.

I'm spitting feathers.

Was hoping you wouldn't notice me stealing straight from your twitter account.

;whistle;

A good first Argentine Tango. Aliona is very good at them.

He does tend to plod a bit. He's so cold sometimes and gormless. Reminds me of Pike.

but she's not learning much latin technique is she?


i find jay dull. no emotion, no acting.

he's odds on to win the whole thingQ

For those who don't know, the AT is a story of a man in a seedy area of Buenos Aires finding a lady of the night to seduce.

He looked more like an 18 year old paying for a high class escort in the G Casino in Walsall and panicking.

All of which makes Kellie at 20/1 astonishing.

Katie has gone wrong at least three times in this. Really feel for her but this is a rotter.

Darcey looks delighted at having been covered in glitter...

Anita's energy was good but it was a bit stompy for me. She's a real all rounder, for sure.

Meh, Anita killing it, Katie going nowhere.  Jay just gets shorter :(

Did her jive in trainers. give her a flouncy dress and heels please, let her flick away glamorously instead of dancing next to a bloke in a boiler suit

she's talented and improving

i am missing something with jay. don't get it, but he seems insanely popular.

For Jay to be 8/15 to win the whole thing means someone knows he racks up the phone votes. He also got a noticeable bigger cheer when all the couples walked on at the start.

It kinda spoils it that someone who is so unengaging is in that position. I also just can't stop noticing his piggy snout - he has Chief Wiggum's nose.

Kellie has one or two minor bits to work on but she's the best all round dancer in the competition.

She's getting tough routines. That was a much, much harder routine than it looked. Infinitely harder than Helen's rumba. Huge amount of content in it.

32 is a touch lower than I had it, but she didn't deserve 38 so no complaints here.

Say what you like about Jeremy but he learns a new dance every week, gets all the steps in the right order and you can see he's given it everything.

He's the best "worst" one in Strictly history, if that makes sense.

Now then...can Georgia go top twice in a row?

Looking for fluid hips that never stop, a double bounce action and great feet.

Two mistakes won't help...

That could have been spectacular. Dance of the night for me.

She missed his hand and lost her feet for a moment but it was still excellent.

really fast and aggressive

like it when they go for it



so chaps

name the bottom two for the dance off taking into account popularity and judges votes........

Jamelia and Carol.

Carol goes.

Jeremy will rack up votes

carol we know is popular

i will say jamelia and katie with jamelia going finally

Perfectly possible, Tighty. The public tend to know when it's someone's time to go. Katie can't win this competition now for me.

There's very little between the top six: Jay, Peter, Anita, Kellie, Georgia and Helen. Peter and Jay have hit their ceiling, IMO. The others could really leave them behind.

Carol and Katie, Carol goes.

Georgia very good tonight

Tal

Kellie 33-1 skybet, 7th favourite, fyi

Skybet knew though.  Looks an excellent price, but Jay wins the polls every week.  Even when he messed up completely he still topped the poll.  It is like the comp is going on in a parallel universe where people see a different Jay.

Anita and Gleb will be performing the Quickstep to ‘Don't Get Me Wrong’ by The Pretenders.

Georgia and Giovanni will be dancing the Charleston to ‘Hot Honey Rag' from Chicago.

Helen and Aljaž will be performing the Tango to 'Hold Back The River' by James Bay.

Jamelia and Tristan will be performing the Samba to ‘A Little Respect’ by Erasure.

Jay and Aliona will be dancing the Foxtrot ‘Lay Me Down’ by Sam Smith.

Jeremy and Karen will be performing the Quickstep to ‘Going Underground’ by The Jam.

Katie and Anton will be dancing the Rumba to ‘Never Never Never' by Shirley Bassey.

Kellie and Kevin will be performing the Samba to ‘Boom Shake The Room’ by Jazzy Jeff and the Fresh Prince.

Peter and Janette will be dancing the Viennese Waltz to ‘You're My World’ by Cilla Black.

Kellie and Kevin will be what-ing to what, sorry?

I suppose one way to stop criticism that the singers on the show murder the songs is to get them to do a Cilla Black song.

You know the 1990s? Well that's what this is:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4AVWZwZq_QU

Mr Waite making an awful lot of sense tonight. Agree with everything he said about the training footage.

Is 8/15 value for Jeremy lowest scorer? Only Jamelia can get close and she'll find 24 in a latin dance, so long as she remembers the steps.

9/1 Kellie for a judges' bounce after the dance off and finish top? 10% chance may be ok. Concern would be whether Len has any idea what is going on. Don't suppose Kevin could choreograph a basic dance to show off his dancer's skills? No way I'm backing Georgia at 5/6.

Peter looks poor. Katie looks fantastic and has the dress of the night, but Craig will hate an old fashioned, traditional rumba, without the aggressive and accentuated light and shade of the modern version. Very surprised to see beyond a 7. Could really spilt the judges and get 7-8-9-7.

Not sure I like Helen's legs in the tango training footage. She's kissing the floor rather than driving into it. All a bit too delicate. Jay solid but unspectacular again.

Interesting night ahead. No forties tomorrow.

A Strictly "mole" has told Yours magazine Bruno has been told to be nastier and the producers have wrested back the decisions over song choices, as expected.

The mind boggles - a strictly mole.

For a bit of fun, a demonstration of samba, paso doble, rumba and jive in 1979 by the godfather of latin dancing, Alan Fletcher OBE:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LlZAcYTAC4A

Then, by the mid-80s, Dornie Burns MBE and his partner, Gaynor Fairweather, changed everything:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XZVFtTNwsKA

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sq-5kD9DKck

Much more pronounced hip rotation. And more sensual in tone. It made Fletcher's prim and proper version look prehistoric, despite being just a few years later.

Amazing how times change.

a strange week with odd song choices, laughable wardrobe and the entertaining jeremy flung to the sidelines

did anyone see Tristam's look to the skies and grimace when he survived the dance off? hilarious. I suspect Ms Jamelia is quite hard work

After reading Tal's gossip I thought it was noticeable how Craig twice went out of his way to criticise the song choices. Kevin in his Fresh Prince garb was the most unbearable I can remember one of the pro dancers being.


He'll only have a week left - Jamelia is 1/6 to go this week.

Despite my live bets on this I'm still mostly just anti-railing Jay and Peter.

Jay is deadly dull. Dances like a shop mannequin being positioned by his pro

The celebrity i have disliked most in years, including the oleaginous hobbit hollins

nailed on to win it too

And we can now reveal the songs our couples will be dancing to in the Blackpool Tower Ballroom and the style of dance they’ll be performing;

Anita and Gleb will perform the Paso Doble to the dramatic ‘Malaguena’ by Connie Francis.

Georgia and Giovanni dance the American Smooth to the Whitney Houston power-ballad ‘I Have Nothing’.

Helen and Aljaž are going to Charleston to ‘Anything Goes’ from the musical of the same name.

Jamelia and Tristan Quickstep to 1960’s classic ‘I’m A Believer’ by The Monkees.

Jay and Aliona will Salsa to the disco-flavoured ‘Cuba’ by The Gibson Brothers.

Katie and Anton perform the American Smooth to Dean Martin’s ‘Ain’t That A Kick In The Head.

Kellie and Kevin will be Quickstepping to Dolly Parton’s ‘Nine To Five’.

Peter and Janette are Jiving to Tina Turner’s ‘River Deep, Mountain High’.


So that's four dances with lifts. Georgia doesn't cover the floor and didn't close her feet in the chassés, so I'm not expecting her to do well on Blackpool's much bigger floor.

Jay's salsa should be very good. Proper music that. No question he'll be fine.

Whoever is picking songs for Kellie and Kevin needs a new job! Absolutely no chance of being taken seriously with that nonsense every week. Meanwhile, Helen gets to Charleston to Cole Porter.

quite proud of myself

created a bbc account, posted on the strictly blog about how much i disliked Jay, along the lines of what i posted above

got inundated with dislike notifications.

people love him. Ugh.

Please tell me you included the expression oleaginous hobbit.

i did.

i am told that jay is a wonderful lyrical dancer, full of expression. That he is delightful, a treasure and so talented

By 174 people.

Ha, wonderful, have you got a link?

After spending the last few days being trolled to bits, I have a hankering to join the party from the other side of the fence.

an example

"Regarding Craig's treatment of Jay. As you may have seen from my posts, I felt it was unprofessional and uncalled for, particularly referring to Jay in such derogatory terms when evaluating Katie. That was totally out of order.

Jay always listens intently to the notes the judges give, and seems to take them on board. He's way out of his comfort zone standing in front of the judges, and I do feel that they play on that because he shone so brightly, so soon in the competition. Darcey's ridiculous 'as it's week three' comment says it all - they reacted instinctively, then pulled back, and Jay has been paying for it ever since.

In my view, Jay is by far the most gifted dancer in the competition, and the one with the most to give. But putting him down at every turn is not the way to get the best out of him, if that is the rather misguided intent. On ITT last week he said that he's been confused by the mixed messages he's been getting, but that he was feeling much more confident.

Then on Saturday, and presumably feeling much more confident about things, he and Aliona turned in a stunning performance, full of tenderness and technically brilliant with that amazing one-armed spinning lift. The stumble was unfortunate, but he recovered like a true pro and carried on to end the dance beautifully. I've watched it through and through, with and without the music, and it's all there. Beautiful.

Three of the judges sympathised with the stumble, but nevertheless declared their pleasure in his performance. So he was in no way prepared for the tongue lashing dished out with such vicarious delight by Craig. You could see from his face that it had cut him to the quick.

All this has done for the poor man is to confuse him further. His face said it all - what in the hell do they want of me? It's like a dyslexic being told to read Encyclopaedia Britannica upside down, standing in front of the Headmaster. They're confusing the life out of him.

The saddest thing of all is that Jay does communicate the dance beautifully, with his whole body and demeanour. That's what drew me to keep watching Strictly in the first place. He is a born dancer, and his love of the dance comes out in every move he makes. He is able to generate strong emotions in the audience. People don't clap and cheer if they didn't get something from a dance, and they're always on their feet after Jay and Aliona hit the floor.

Jay has delivered on every dance in this competition, and that includes the Quickstep, which was fiendishly difficult, and which he had managed perfectly in rehearsal. There's been enormous pressure on him from the press and the high expections created by the jive, and I think he's coped brilliantly.

I apologise for making such a long post, but it does make me sad that this hugely talented dancer was so shabbily treated last week."

he is nailed on to win

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/0147fa4e-f9da-47bd-9e38-a44b5d5fd048#comments
 

^^^^

They rumbled you.


326.  Posted by  dbclaire
on 
16 Nov 2015 16:42

Tighty

I think you're in the competition to get the most thumbs down - only 12 at the moment - I managed 14 on one of mine! Though I did get 14 thumbs up on the same post.

Seriously I can't take your anti-Jay post seriously - you might not particularly like him, but I think your are a wind up merchant!

Priceless.

I don't remember Craig saying Jay missed some heel leads meaning that he is supposed to do a heel lead on every first beat. In the foxtrot, not ever first beat of the bar takes a heel lead, which is part of the reason the foxtrot is so difficult. But Craig wasn't wrong in his criticism either. It's not like he won't know that!

The number of people who want to mother Jay is hilarious.

 It's like a dyslexic being told to read Encyclopaedia Britannica upside down, standing in front of the Headmaster

Yes...That's exactly what it's like... ::)

Just lol at "by far the most gifted". The jive was the standout dance of the series, but he has not recovered from the climb down. He can win this competition on merit because he is good. However, he's one of a few and nothing more in my eyes.

Top trolling, Tighty.

There has been no change at the top of the digital spy poll since week 2.  Jay even finished top the week he completely horlicksed it.  When I say top, he has been very top, as in nearly as many votes as the rest put together in some weeks.  Georgia and Geovani have definitely closing though.  I have been tempted to bet on them as I just don't get the Jay thing.

By contrast, the likes of Kellie, Katie, Peter and the midwife have been out with the washing.  I'll look in on a Saturday night and Jay will be on 150 and they'll still be in single figures.  Even when Peter smashed it, he was a distance behind Jay.  Apart from Georgia, Anita has got some solid scores, but she isn't really getting within 50% of Jay's vote.

Baffling, wp Tighty.

So, can we oppose Jamelia at 1/5 to go this week?

A quickstep seems to be the perfect dance to get for Blackpool's big floor, and she actually has a fast song for it. Kellie's 9 to 5 is a plodder - just tap out the beat with your finger on the table, can't see how that can be a quickstep. Dave Arch is going to have to give his metronome a bit of extra juice for them to cover the floor with that song.

Katie's American Smooth should be right up her and Anton's street.

Jamelia's not beating anyone else in a dance off.

It's only 2 weeks since Kellie finished 2 places above Jamelia in the leaderboard but went in the dance off that Jamelia avoided so she's weak on votes.

Kellie's 9/1 to go - worth a tickle?

for the mardy brummie not to go you need to get two into the dance off, and not her

as if jamelia is in the dance off she goes this time as she is a noticeably worse dancer than any other remaining

so the screeching cockney is one, who else would be in the dance off?

boring jay. no

georgia? no

anita. no.

helen no. has a charleston, might top score

andre. no

katie doing an anton ballroom? no

so its kellie v jamelia and jamelia goes

Human props tomorrow night

Ugh.

Forced over-excitement about going to faded Northern seaside twon

Ugh.

Not a bit. Blackpool Tower Ballroom is Wembley Stadium for ballroom dancing. Huge amount of history and will be nervy for the pros as much as the contestants.

The reason for the other dancers is, I think, because the floor is bigger and most of the couples simply can't cover it. It has a springier floor - much springier - and that will show up technical faults more prominently.

Peter is going to look terrible doing his jive. He'll have to body pop his way out of trouble to get votes.

Katie will be fine with Anton. Could easily be a big score if she has straightened her legs a bit more than I saw in the early week footage. Pushing more on the first beat and extending her legs will give her more drive and she will naturally cover more of the floor. Anton could probably do another 50% on each step. Longer steps get more rise and fall, too.

I hope it's not another Charleston at the top. One of the traditional dances, please.

Jamelia is no more unpopular than Helen, Katie and Kellie.  This week's reports have been good, and Digital Spy has become noticeably less hostile.  I don't think she can even be 1/5 to get in the dance off and don't see her as a certainty to lose it.  I'd happily lay all the 1/5 I can get.

+1

A Charleston at the top would make a mockery of the whole show.

Jay might be a price at 9/2 for top scorer. He will probably enjoy the salsa like he did the jive and it's an excellent song for the dance. His footage on Tuesday showed him getting to grips with the technique and we know his latin feet are good.

Anita at 2/1 feels too short, as there's a decent chance of a tie at the top. She makes wonderful shapes and has a decent song to perform to. Kevin was top at Blackpool last year with his Paso with Susanna Reid.

It'd be lovely to see a ballroom dance go top, but the judges' rotation policy means Georgia won't be top and Jamelia is a no-channer. Katie is short enough at 9/2, as her steps weren't big enough and she was taking her feet off the floor too much in her training footage. Kellie is more popular with the judges than the public (do BBC viewers not watch Eastenders anymore?), but it's another bizarre piece of music (Dolly Parton quickstep if you please - how are you supposed to pick out quicks and slows out of that?) and it's impossible to see an amateur keeping all the necessary pieces in check (frame, posture, timing, flow, technique) throughout the dance. I can only assume she said from the outset she wouldn't be doing the tour! It's a shame. I still consider her to be the best all round dancer, but she is being skuppered completely by terrible songs and overcomplicated routines.

Peter is so far back on his heels he looks like he's about to topple backwards. You have to have your weight forward in latin dances. You have to know that by this point in the comp, Peter!

Jamelia to go after a dance off with...Peter.

So what happened last night?

Read all the previews, wake up Sunday morning to see how it all turned out - nothing.

Report please by one of the hardcore SCD fans - Tal, Tighty, Doobs, or Camel.

I can't say, but was controversial on digital spy.

Thought Aita was excellent last night

with the public's love of the "journey" and her vast improvement can she win it, and go past jay and georgia?

A very high standard overall without a standout dance. The judges put Georgia top again, which was a little surprising but not an injustice by any means.

I'll say this quietly but I think Jay was a touch undermarked. His hips were fabulous and it was a very natural, simple salsa danced well to good music.

Peter was terrible. Very much deserved to be bottom. He must have struggled badly with the dance because Janette gave him very little jive content to do and his kick ball changes were rotten. It was Jeremy Vine stuff at times. I suspect the Digital Spy mob are in force about that but they're all wrong if so. :)

Helen surprised me because she struggled. The judges were kind but not hideously unfairly so. Kellie excellent again (have we seen a bad dance from her yet? No one seems to care but the most consistent performer and often doing so uphill because of difficult choreography and terrible music). Katie nice but not sensational. Her best dance nevertheless.

No one covered the floor well but we suspected that would be the case.


It really helps to have a good song. Her best dance, no question, although didn't deserve more than she got.

We need to see how Jay copes with a new ballroom dance, as that will determine whether he can win on talent, as we know he has votes aplenty.

Allegedly they edited in the standing ovation for Peter.  Everyone just sat down first time. 

Blimey.

He has come across to me as being completely genuine. Not my cup of tea by any means but doesn't strike me as being two faced or anything other than he looks on screen. I don't think I've seen anything else with him in so maybe others know a lot differently.

He was the worst dancer over the weekend and was certainly worse than Jamelia in the dance off. I don't particularly mind Jamelia going on a week she did well; she's had a great innings and wasn't going to win so ending on a high is nice.

Peter seems to me to be a robot that learned about emotions from watching other people and can't quite replicate them properly, so everything is just a little bit 'off'.

i couldn't see how, on the basis of the dance off performances alone, Peter stayed. I don't like Jamelia, but at least she did the dance intended. Peter didnt jive as much as recreate a pop video

lol, +1. 

I struggled to describe him but the above is spot on.

Digital Spy and the BBC blog are in meltdown.  Talk of edited out gasps from the studio audience, forced ovations and edited out sections after Len had contradicted the other judges on iplayer.  James Jordan has predictably weighed in, but so has Arlene Philips.  There is a dance off poll on DS where Jamelia had a 10-1 lead this morning.  I don't think it is a popularity thing either, before Saturday I think it would be fair to say they were equally unpopular. 

Love the robot comment Andrew T.

Is Peter confirmed for the live show?

I'm not one to get worked up about light entertainment, but it was a tad ridiculous. He was truly awful and there was a real sense of "well he's got to stay, but we're not happy about it" from everyone, including Peter. His comment about "I'm sorry it's Jamelia" was weird, as he was basically saying I'm staying so feel bad she has to go.

Do you think she's that good? I was getting the impression the judges were over marking here to make her a "contender". She's never bad, but never really blows you away.

the public, and the shows producers it has to be said, love a journey. no dance experience, plucky underdog, plenty of bbc exposure to promote

the chris hollins winner was the classic

suppose jay and georgia are nailed on for the final 4. could see anita being in it. then its wide open

think i see andre falling short, katie being impaled on the spike of an anton latin horror show and kellie the screecher falling short too

Helen the midwife is an odd one. I finally twigged it last night, she has an air of permanent surprise that is just very off-putting.

yet another contestant i haven't warmed to this year

When is the last dance off? Are there 3 or 4 in the final this year?

4 last year.

there are 7 left

three more weekends then the final, afaik

final is public vote only, no judging biases/fixing/embarrassments to take into account

which is presumably why jay of the high opinion poll ratings is so short, with georgia in behind

OK thanks. Trying to work out if Anita is value at 9/2 top woman. Seems to be growing in popularity and ability.

No he withdrew on the last day possible - he has a solo tour starting two weeks after and wanted time to rehearse.

Strictly Come Dancing: Ola Jordan 'confirms' she's quit show after claiming judges scores are 'fixed'

http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/strictly-come-dancings-ola-jordan-confirms-she-has-quit-show-after-claiming-judges-scores-are-fixed-a6743861.html

beating Georgia will be tough.

I do.

She is frequently asked to learn routines to songs not designed for the requisite timing and she copes well.

Week 1: 27 (6,7,7,7)Tango "You Really Got Me"—The Kinks
Week 2: 27 (6,7,7,7)Cha-Cha-Cha "Don't Go Breaking My Heart"—Elton John &Kiki Dee
Week 3 (Movie): 32 (8,8,8,8)Charleston "Cantina Band"—from Star Wars
Week 4: 32 (8,8,8,8)Foxtrot "Dream a Little Dream of Me"—Mama Cass
Week 5: 35 (8,9,9,9)Jive "One Way or Another (Teenage Kicks)"—One Direction
Week 6 (Halloween): 28 (7,7,7,7)Paso Doble "Hedwig's Theme/School's Out"—John Williams/Alice Cooper
Week 7: 32 (8,8,8,8)Waltz "Love Ain't Here Anymore"—Take That
Week 8: 33 (9,8,7,9)Samba "Boom! Shake the Room"—DJ Jazzy Jeff & The Fresh Prince
Week 9: 37 (9,9,9,10)Quickstep "9 to 5"—Dolly Parton

So she has danced to a recognisable pop song every week, rather than a classical tempo piece of music. She's been consistently highly scored and can offer good hips or a well constructed frame where required. The Paso was undermarked IMO but it was also a farcical piece of music to do a Paso to...dressed as Harry Potter...

I was amused to see all the male pros say in their VT "I've never danced at Blackpool before" and then Kevin at the end comments he's won four British Championships there.

The quality of the pro dancers has markedly dipped over the last few years. Gleb is a good latin dancer but is less effective in ballroom. Brendan seems to be marginalised these days while the younger latin lads get top billing. Tristan I don't get at all.

There are some gaps to fill next year and trained ballroom and latin dancer Joanne Clifton will take one of the spots, while one of the men will have a year in the practice squad. It'd be nice if they recruited from places other than Burn the Floor and similar shows, maybe with 10-dance champions? Darren and Lilia were world ten dance champions. That's foxtrot, waltz, quickstep, tango, Viennese, samba, jive, cha cha, paso and rumba.

Like it or lump it, the show misses James Jordan and it is worse from not having as many pros competent in both disciplines as it did a few years ago.

Interesting reply thanks. What's your dance background? Just curious.

edit: I do agree I find it odd they haven't recruited more new dancers from the top tier of ballroom rather than popular dancers on other shows

Slight derail here, but I'm hoping some of you SCD sorts can give me some titbits of info on a SVCD contestant from 2014 by the name of Jake Wood.

I shall be spending the evening with him in a TV Studio tomorrow (hardly a chirp, as I've never heard of him) though I'm told he is a soap star or somesuch.

Any stuff that I can use to show I know my Soap Stars & SCD-ers would be appreciated.

Thank you. 

I believe he appears in this clip.


YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hPj2Kk2TaTE

He was in eastenders for 10 years, played a love rat..affair with his daughter in law, murder suspect etc etc

currently on a year off but signed a contract to resume his eastenders part next year

was on SCD as you say. had a good pair of hips.

londoner, though posher than the parts he plays. stage schools etc

Arsenal fan

Was also the voice of the Gecko on the Geiko ads in the States for ten or more years.

Just lost the gig, and not very happy about it by all accounts.

Oi oi, welcome back. Good holiday?

Welcome back, Adz.

Ha, welcome back Many Clouds Man.

GEICO, the USA Insurance company, do you mean? If so, owned by none other than Berkshire Hathaway, aka Warren Buffett. Built his businesses around the so-called "float" from GEICO. 

If we are not at cross purposes here, that's exactly the sort of titbit I was looking for.

Yes definitely sounds like you should bring this up...

Thought it might be.

it crushed every bone in his body...

http://www.ok.co.uk/celebrity-news/jake-wood-twitter-rant-geico-gecko-dropped-fans-support

From voiceovering geckos to a guest appearance on skypoker.  How the mighty have fallen. 

Adzzzzzzzzz

Great news.

jamelia and tristan threw the BBC under the bus in the exit interview then.....

re-recording because of no standing ovation for peter indeed.

Is that what they said?

Wow.

Should give tikay something to discuss tomorrow, considering Jake Wood was voted off in a controversial dance off in favour of Mark Wright in last year's semi final.

I feel very hurt that you two didn't believe me when I mentioned this on Sunday. 

I believed you, but didn't expect it on ITT!

Neither did I.  I was aiming to get home just to see if it got mentioned but got stuck at work.  Darcey was on breakfast this morning and there wasn't a mention.  

http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06qsd80/strictly-it-takes-two-series-13-episode-41 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b06qsd80/strictly-it-takes-two-series-13-episode-41)


There you go Tal, very good exit interview, loved Tristan's face when she said it.

Incred.

Didn't disbelieve you either but Tristan's face when she does the double inverted commas is something else.

Google is amazing

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-299489/Jamelia-slams-Peter-Andre.html

#Яebel–Verified account ‏@Jamelia

Thanks so much for your support & kind words! I had an absolute blast...& I wish nothing but the best for Pete, Janette & Everyone else! ❤️

12:25 p.m. - 23 Nov 2015

I should probably ask some questions. Will add some filler so you can look like a well researched man.

1. Jake topped the leaderboard three times last year (Salsa, Jive and Samba). Were any of those his favourite dances to perform or did he enjoy learning ballroom more? (I loved his Samba to the Macarena)

2. Janette is now dancing with Peter Andre. What was her method of teaching like? Did she start with the basics of footwork and posture or did you go straight to learning the choreography?

3. A lot is said (it is tikay, trust me on this) about the music choices for the dances. You had to do an Argentine Tango to Zorba the Greek. How did that happen and what happened behind the scenes? Did anyone protest about the music they had to dance to?


That should get you a few minutes of filler. Thanks.

Should probably also try to drum up some support for his colleague Kellie Bright...given I've backed her ;)

    Anita and Gleb are dancing the Rumba to ‘Read All About It’ by Emelie Sande.
    Georgia and Giovanni will perform the Paso Doble to Europe’s epic soft rock anthem ‘The Final Countdown’.
    Helen and Aljaž perform the Viennese Waltz to the beautiful ‘At Last’ by Etta James.
    Jay and Aliona are performing the Tango to the Prince classic ‘When Doves Cry’.
    Katie and Anton will dance the Argentine Tango to Ástor Piazzolla’s ‘Libertango’.
    Kellie and Kevin will Salsa to the poptastic ‘I Want You Back’ by The Jackon 5.
    And Peter and Janette are going to dance the American Smooth to the soulful ‘Sweetest Feeling’ by the great Jackie Wilson.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/strictly-come-dancing/12014949/Now-Ola-Jordans-out-who-should-win-Strictly.html

Tighty,

How did your bit of SCD trolling go - did you get a bite?

unfortunately my comment was the third lowest rated of 554 posts and i was told i was on another planet

Very upsetting.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/strictlycomedancing/entries/a6092624-0dcb-4dce-8752-d6e699f3d5d3#comments

Thank you for the suggested SCD questions for the Jake Wood guest appearance.

I'm not exactly Paxman, & the show tone & mood is relaxed, so I run the questions past Jake before the Show. He was a tad cool as to the GEICO Gecko stuff, so I swerved that, but he loved the SCD questions & we got 5 or 6 minutes of chat from it.

On the whole, it really looked like I had done my homework, but I probably over-reached a shade when I mentioned Brucie as the Host. Apparently he's not the host any more.  How did I not notice that, especially as I claimed to be an avid watcher?

Incidentally, I was not aware of those GEICO ads - they are excellent, most amusing. If you have an hour to waste enjoyably, go to You Tube & search for "GEICO Ad compilations".

Jake was good fun, too. Big Arsenal fan, so an ideal night for him to be around. We swapped a few Arsenal stories, he's a big Wenger fan, & it turned out we had both met & chatted with Charlie George, but he surprised me by suggesting that Charlie had done a bit of bird. Lord knows how I miss these things.  

Ha, every bone in your body crushed then, right?

496. Posted by bobdee on23 Nov 2015 13:04

We have just seen the most disgraceful, disgusting decision ever on SCD. We now have to move on. I certainly don't want a judge on to explain the disgrace by peddling us lies and taking us for bigger fools than they already have.

If Peter had any decency he would withdraw.


I had no idea Camel followed the Strictly blog.

Particularly like "we now have to move on" before not moving on.

Hello not sure if you missed my question earlier, but are you a dancer at all? Not trolling just genuinely curious as you seem very well informed.

Tyvm

Peter going last? Or is that a random order?

Kellie and Helen at the top based on those song choices. Based on that Katie being eliminated seems like value to me.

no idea if that is the order

think the time is nearly up for Katie, sadly

Peter, post controversy, has to be a reasonable shout to go this week. the public are going to keep him out of the bottom 2?

The song list is in alphabetical order.

I think you must mean that Peter looks a near cert for bottom 2 after last week.  He really wasn't popular before and voices of support for him after last week have been very thin on the ground (bar the odd troll ;)).   4/1 is available in a fair few places and looks a must bet to me.  Don't think how he dances matters too much, unless he tops the leaderboard he looks a near cert for the dance off and he isn't likely to face anybody much worse.  Suspect a few of those judges are feeling a bit guilty too. 

there is a ballroom quickstep-a-thon as part of this weekend. all seven couples on the floor at once, finishing positions count as part of judges scores

this has always put male celebs at a disadvantage from the off, as they struggle to manoeuvre past other couples and display "ringcraft". with only two blokes left in, it doesnt bode well for Peter...

Was going to post about this later in the week but yes. 

Favours Kevin and Anton above all, as experienced, preferred ballroom dancers, though Aljaž should be good, too. All the pros will be fine but it's a small floor for seven couples. Obviously gets easier over time.

Bear in mind Peter is doing a foxtrot American Smooth, which has a lot of the same technique and steps as the quickstep. That's basically the only thing in his favour, though.

Strictly loves a bounce-back though doesn't it? Peter to return triumphant to the top of the leader board and Katie to go out. Heard it here first.

lol

James Jordan ‏@The_JamesJordan now3 seconds ago

Bruno is MAD..... Might as well have my postman on there judging

Don't see how he escapes.  He was fairly unpopular before last week, now bbc blog and digital spy are full of active dislike.  I looked at digital spy in the week and pretty much every thread was a different way of bashing Peter. 

Suspect a Kellie/Peter dance off.  Len is such a curmudgeon about the way dances should be danced that you can half see him getting rid of Anita with his casting vote.  Can't see him beating Kellie if he stomps his way through tomorrow's dance again.

Kellie or Katie go this week. Jay, Georgia, Helen, Anita nailed on for the final.

    Anita & Gleb will dance the Argentine Tango to ‘Cell Block Tango’ from Chicago.
    Georgia & Giovanni will Foxtrot to ‘Beauty & The Beast’ from the show of the same name.
    Helen & Aljaz perform the Paso Doble to  ‘At The End Of The Day’ from Les Miserables.
    Jay & Aliona are going to Rumba to  ‘Falling Slowly’ from Once.
    Katie & Anton are dancing the Foxtrot to ‘Maybe This Time’ from Cabaret.
    And finally Kellie & Kevin are performing the Viennese Waltz to ‘Oom Pah Pah’ from Oliver.

Excellent song for Anita that will have Gleb moistening gussets across the land again.

Kellie finally gets a song that suits the dance (even though a Viennese Waltz just needs something that rather obviously goes 1,2,3,1,2,3). That song from Oliver will have the whole audience clapping along all the way through.

This is the week we really find out if Aliona can get ol'Piggyface to emote as he does the dance of love to a dreary piece of sentimental rubbish (that loads of people love - no accounting for taste).

Tal - is the VW the easiest dance for a girl to do? She basically just has to hold on whilst maintaining the top line as far as I can see.

i didn't think the les mis song was a paso type number?

old porcelain doll wide eyed manniquin has a challenge with it i think

I haven't seen or heard anything about this week, but I'll shoot from the hip.


Quite possibly, although, having just watched it on Youtube, I'm concerned it's a bit over the top for a tango. It'll be difficult to choreograph without becoming a flamboyant nonsense.


It's a great number and it naturally fits a real whisk around the floor. Very quick. She's going to be dizzy this week. Kevin can't win this competition without showing his dancers off better. Give her something simple and let her do it well. A lot of the leading dances week on week have not been that complicated. Jay's jive the biggest exception.

On which note...


Yes. He is going to be challenged this week. Apart from by the voting public. Obviously.


Yes...ish... The learning on a technical basis is certainly less but it shows up frame, footwork, posture and hold much more prominently than other dances, where careful choreography can cover a multitude of sins.

A top level VW on this show will be almost exclusively in hold ("no fannying about at the start"), with a little intro, about 1/3 natural turns, 1/3 reverse turns, a fleckerl, a reverse fleckerl and a little end. I have yet to see a fleckerl followed by a reverse, I believe. Len would be looking for his eleven if that happened.

The VW used to be reserved for about this point in the competition and with good reason.

Katie doing a foxtrot is going to be tough. She's better in latin, although she is in the ultimate safe hands and had an American Smooth recently, which was foxtrot-based.

Georgia's dance could barely be more saccharin in my mind. Giovanni has his work cut out to keep her at the top.

Oof. What a bottom 2. Helen must be a goner

She made two very obvious mistakes. If she doesn't make those this time, she might get there. 

Georgia favourite to stay of course.

Jay must be an absolute lock if Georgia isn't popular...much as I'd love Kellie to win.

Helen massively improved. This is close.

So it turns out Helen is this year's Pixie Lott.

I really do think that not many people pick up the phone to vote and when it gets to the business end, even being at the top of the leaderboard doesn't give you many points in hand to survive if the more motivated supporters of whoever is down the bottom get dialling.

Next week, Georgia will get a bounce and is guaranteed to avoid the dance off as her supporters have had a wake up call this week.

Anita & Gleb will dance the Foxtrot to Frank Sinatra’s ‘New York, New York’ as well as perform a Salsa to ‘Feel This Moment’ by Pitbull feat. Christina Aguilera.

Georgia & Giovanni will dance a Viennese Waltz to ‘Runaway’ by The Corrs plus they will dance a Cha Cha (music track TBC).

jay & Aliona are going to Charleston to ‘Doctor Jazz’ from musical Jelly’s Last Jam and perform a Viennese Waltz to Bryan Adams’ ‘Have You Ever Really Loved A Woman’?

Katie & Anton are dancing the Waltz to ‘O Mio Babbino Caro’ by Puccini as well as dance the Charleston to ‘Too Darn Hot’ from the musical Kiss Me Kate.

Kellie & Kevin are performing the American Smooth to ‘Let’s Face The Music And Dance’ by Irving Berlin plus they will perform a Rumba to ‘Songbird’ by Eva Cassidy.

Hang on...Kellie gets TWO proper songs? Interesting that's she's doing a quickstep American Smooth.

think i like katie at 2-1 to go ahead of kellie at evens

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/strictly-come-dancing/next-elimination

the beke never the strongest outside ballroom and their charleston may struggle up against the other one

cant see jay (nailed on winner), anita (popular underdog) or georgia (rebound in votes after last week) being in the bottom two

When they do two dances which do they do in the dance-off - do they get to choose or is it the lowest score or something?

Highest scoring dance. This saved Simon Webbe a few times last year. System favours people who are good at one variant over the consistent dancers.

Without having seen any training footage, I would expect Kellie to do her AS but Anita is tougher to call. Maybe her salsa.

You'd have to think that Jay and Georgia would be the top two on the leaderboard - Jay is surely piling on the votes each week and Georgia will get the bounce so neither will be in the dance off, so that leaves 2 from 3.

Anita and Katie benefit from their pro dancers having a fanbase and winning them votes, whereas surely no one votes for the KFG. I think Kellie would need top two to stand a chance of avoiding the danceoff but I don't see how that happens.

I actually think that Kellie beats either in a dance off (she's finished top of their 3 woman mini-leaderboard in the last 4 weeks), so that Evens is a lay for me.

Katie has beaten Anita the past two weeks, so Anita has to play catchup on the votes. We know she has support, as she has finished bottom of the leaderboard the last two weeks (albeit the silly Quickstepathon moved her to second bottom) yet has avoided the danceoff both times. Katie has never been truly tested (never bottom, one second bottom and that was with two other couples). There is the suspicion of a big fanbase but we don't know for sure.

It's a toughie but I'm going to plump for Anita to go at 9/2 on the basis that Katie and Anton are getting the votes.

We know that Anita is getting the votes, they've kept her out of the dance-off despite leaderboard position.

We don't know that Katie is as popular, as she has rarely been in the bottom 2

Kellie on the other hand has had 5 (?) dance offs and a big bounce last week

this might work in Derham's favour

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-3353513/I-t-abide-Little-Miss-Perfect-Katie-Derham-s-class-act-Strictly-star-guilty-unforgivable-sin-not-woman-s-woman.html

Even by the mails standard that writer is beyond poor.

Seems to just troll any woman in the news that week not even click bait really

Too late to post on TfT, but I fancy:

1. Georgia to top the leaderboard with her Viennese Waltz (her frame is the best I have seen)

2. Kellie to score highly in her American Smooth (at least one ten)

3. Anita to struggle with two dances and does solidly but unspectacularly

4. Katie and Anita in the dance off.

5. Anita goes because Katie goes ballroom and does better.

georgia has had a day and a half to do the cha cha. might be a problem, but don't see her bottom two after last weeks scare

Sorry, yes I mean highest scoring individual dance. Jay may well finish top

Kellie goes.  Has no fans, so ends up in bottom 2 90% of the time.

Anita gets saved by fans if bottom 2.  

and i think Katie gets chucked out by the judges v kellie

(one of us will be right)

4!

cor blimey.

That's going to ensure Katie finishes bottom - even a 40 for the next dance gives them 65, which will still be bottom.

Though it won't affect the dance off, as they're doing the other one.

How orange is Tess's arm?

craig is right about jay. she places a lump of plastecene around the floor during the dance.


still going to win it though from mum votes

way overmarked

only another week of chuntering about the boy band member to go though

very poor standard of first dances for a semi-final dont you think?

not a patch on the ramprakash or halfpenny eras

why is that? under-rehearsed (not enough time)? poor technique? poor choreography?

It probably is under-rehearsing (Georgia is also quite clearly ill).

That dance from Kellie will win the dance off if she's in it as she'll eliminate that mistake.

Drops his partner.

10.

Betting suspended. 

::)

First 10 from Craig coming up here.

Boooooooo to Craig.

Also, her boyfriend in the audience looks a right possessive jealous sort. Pretty funny him having to sit there whilst Bruno praises the romantic love story and how great a couple GG make.

the worst piece of music chosen for a salsa in the history of this programme

no salsa at all in the routine as a result!

Absolute Colin Jackson moment.  Barmy song and dance choice.

This is brilliant from Kellie

Dance of the series.

And yes. I remember the jive.

crowd pleasing AS that


Seals Anita and Katie bottom 2 for me

Katie goes

Should have had the Canadian :)

I didn't know Georgia had been ill. Bit frustrating as I would have backed Kellie to top the leaderboard, but couldn't see Georgia getting under 76 from the training footage.

I'd love to think Kellie could win this competition. Kevin's choreography in both dances was utterly phenomenal. So perfectly pitched: the rumba tender and technical; the AS was straight out of a Fred and Ginger movie with its little side by sides and cheeky moments.

But I've spent enough time banging that particular drum ITT. We all know where the glitter ball is going.

Seriously? Drops Aliona and gets a ten.

(https://media0.giphy.com/media/1LmBFphV4XNSw/giphy.gif)

First time we haven't had a perfect 40 before the final since series 4, Igather

worth remembering because there has been a controversy brewing over anita's non-salsa, they were given a choreographer to help this week, but he was a charleston/swing expert...not the salsa expert last used for blackpool week

i still can't get over how feel this moment was chosen as a salsa song.

Barmy.

I will say they have historically always had other coaches in for anything outside the normal 10 dances. Plus, the pros help each other (Anton helped Gleb with his quickstep earlier this year, for example).

Jay's jive would have been 40 had it not been week 3 (see the Ramprakash Argentine Tango to Goldeneye).

He didn't drop her, he threw her to the floor.  Think it must have been 10 for Ippon.

Very good

:D

These Pans People numbers are getting more and more annoying.

Any chance you could show us some proper ballroom dancing?

Choosing to do the Pitbull Salsa again?!

She's even money at best against Katie and 20/1 against Georgia doing that.

Great for Kellie and Kevin.

It wasn't clean from Katie, but it was significantly better than the first time she did it. A good three points better.

Big test now.

I'd put Katie through but it's close.

Right result.

Jay - the most popular and best finishes
Georgia - best frame and quick feet
Kellie - best all-rounder and storyteller
Katie - surprise outsider

Roll on Saturday!

With no judges scoring next week, who wins is down to the black box of the public vote (interesting that the BBC never release voting figures for Strictly, even though the ITV shows do) so there's no informed betting decisions that can really be made.

I am pretty sure that my Katie to win betting ticket is worthless right now so next week I can concentrate on anti-railing Jay and hope that in revenge for this week, Aliona roundhouse kicks him during the showdance.

i couldn't understand why Anita chose to do that non salsa again in a dance off

both her dances scored 32, but one was more of a judge pleaser than the other

surely the foxtrot-AS was the right choice against Anton/ballroom?

I guess that all couples dance their second dance again (as it means less faffing about with costume/makeup) so they would have decided which order to do the dances before the show started.

May also explain why the first lot of dances were poor - everyone concentrated on practising the one they'd picked for th dance off.

some great lines in this one

" What a fix! What a farce! Don’t get me wrong, I love Strictly Come Dancing, but this series has sorely tested my devotion.

The judging has been a wildly inconsistent shambles, with some couples torn to pieces for errors which are made light of when it comes to the judges’ favourites. "

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/strictly-come-dancing/12051540/Strictly-Come-Dancing-is-ruined-X-Factor-is-dead-reality-TV-has-been-hoisted-by-its-own-cynicism.html

We can now reveal the songs our finalists will perform their Showdance to:

    Georgia and Giovanni will be performing their Showdance to ‘Fix You’ by Coldplay.
    Jay and Aliona will be performing their Showdance to ‘Can’t Feel My Face’ by The Weeknd.
    Katie and Anton will be performing their Showdance to ‘O Fortuna’ by Carl Orff.
    Kellie and Kevin will be performing their Showdance to ‘Ding-Dong Daddy of the D-Car Line’ by Cherry Poppin’ Daddies.

The songs and dances for our couples' choice performances are:

    Kellie and Kevin have chosen to Charleston to 'Starwars Cantina Band' by John Williams.
    Georgia and Giovanni have chosen to Charleston to 'Hot Honey Rag' from Chicago.
    Jay and Aliona have chosen to Paso Doble to 'It's My Life' by Bon Jovi.
    Katie and Anton have chosen to Viennese Waltz to 'If I Can Dream' by Elvis Presley.


who are the 1-2-3-4 in order from the final then?


jay-georgia-kellie-katie for me

If they announce who comes third (can't remember whether they do), I have Jay beating Kellie heads up.

Kellie's showdance may well steal the show. That has happened in the past. The antirailers may have switched their ire to Katie after the newspaper nonsense about dry ice (makes flip all difference to judge and it's commonly been used this series).

Any news on the judges' choices?

I think there's no 2nd/3rd split. We learn who comes 4th at the start of the second show, then at the end they announce the winner with 3 left. It's only subsequently we find out who was 3rd

That's what I thought.

Kellie's showdance could be a knockout performance. No one has done a lindy-hop before and she looks seriously good at it. Couple that with the Star Wars Charleston and 12/1 could look silly.

Who am I kidding? The 1/4 for Jay is probably better value.

But wouldn't it be nice?

Anyone see It Takes Two tonight? Thought Zoë handled the rather awkward situation well, as comments were made about her appearance on the front page of the red tops this morning. 

Gwarrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrn Kellieeeeeeeeeee!!!!

That show dance was Jay in a nutshell - very competent but not exciting at all.

If only there was a couple in the semis who would have really gone for it in the showdance.  Dullard vs dullard vs the most dislikeable man in Grimsby.  C'mon Georgia. 

50/1 Stan? Betty? Fifty?!

Public, listen up. Get on the dog and bone for the Eastender!

Big drift on Jay out beyond 1/2.  Kellie and the gurner 3/1. 

I mean just how is he still 1.54?!

:D

Is he backable at that price, Doobs? Serious question.

Just backed him at 1.62, my -400 now -200 on Jay.  Also backed Georgia at 14 for small amounts.

Kellie 5/2 top female on sky and 1.41 on exchange

Aliona's showdance was a bit of a Colin Jackson blunder. I thought the concept was going to be good in doing a bit of every dance, but you also have to tell a story and finish with a bang.

I loved Giovani's choreography. Magical dance and wonderfully put together, but those beastly shoulders punctured the whole piece, where Georgia's most glorious frame has been her best feature.

I feel for Katie, because she had to follow two of the best dances of the series tonight. Her showdance was the best dance she's done this series. If she goes out in half an hour, that's how you'd want to go.

Historically, the public in this show have been honest and judged the best dance in the final (explain Chris Hollins otherwise). Wouldn't it be lovely?


Marv. Thanks!

7/2 female winner too.  Obv they aren't laying me much anyway, but less of a palp.

1.75/2.5 now Giorgia any price.   Going to be sick if I have eventually got rid of most of my Jay position to lose more on those two.

Jay did touch 1.96 before coming again - his price has just collapsed to 1.5 when they suspended it.

How could piggy and aliona not do the jive? Crazy, almost puppetgate all over again

Aye, had a 1.94 for everything in the bank that wasn't laid. 

Georgia came flying in 30 to 10 at the death too.  Would be a big shock if they got it.

Interesting that Ola was in the group dance - I thought she'd burned her bridges.

PathetiC winners. Clearly third best tonighy

Meh, was a rampathon for the gurner.  So wanted Jay to lose up until tonight. 

Toys. Pram.

Why am I surprised?

Did I hear booing when they announced the winner?

Didn't hear booing - just noticed Joanne Clifton showing family loyalty by having a face like thunder.

http://forums.digitalspy.co.uk/showthread.php?t=2123902&page=100

Result announced at page 98. First time in a while I've seen so many people unhappy with Jay's success.

"I'd been rooting for Jay up until tonight. It's sad that I'm (and judging by the others' reactions) underwhelmed by him winning because they were just not up to scratch tonight."

“How predictable. What a fix. Kellie was miles better.”

"Aliona looks embarrassed about winning"

"Its a personality contest.
So the female fans won it for Jay.
Had it been judged on dancing Kellie would have won by a mile."


Some massive hatred for the Clifton family, still. What is that all about? They're a well known family in dancing circles as Kevin and Joanne's parents were good dancers and they have a dance school.

No palp. Top female market settled as a dead heat.

interesting blog post on what this writer felt went wrong with the 2015 series

http://frankieandcloverstrictly.blogspot.co.uk/