[UTG+1: t2973 M = 1.20]

$15 45man turbo on Stars. No info on either player, table just broke so they're proper randomers. I thought about this for a bit and decided i didn't really know how close a decision this was:

This is the final table. 9 left, 7 pay.

Poker Stars $13.78+$1.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t600/t1200 Blinds + t75 - 9 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: t4913       M = 1.99
BB: t11058       M = 4.47
UTG: t5997       M = 2.42
UTG+1: t2973       M = 1.20
UTG+2: t7601       M = 3.07
MP1: t3432       M = 1.39
MP2: t10321       M = 4.17
CO: t9108       M = 3.68
Hero (BTN): t12097       M = 4.89

Pre Flop: (t2475) Hero is BTN with

1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t2898 all in, UTG+2 calls t2898, 3 folds, Hero...

A station raising pre sets off an alarm, having the   removing some fd combo's is also pretty siginificant so i think i'm in the fold camp. He prob does spaz out with KQ-KT but these likely dont feature in his 3b range. He has no reason to think you're particularly weak at any point in this hand so when he bombs turn i'm very inclined to think it's for value.

Your hand is shit.

That's a good point.

Just fold. With such a good read you can wait for a hand with some post flop value. I do believe there are some spots that come up very rarely in live cash that can be described as any two squeezing spots, but since you have this great read, a better one will surely come up again soon.

If we figure a raise gets through a lot (and a cbet a lot too if we're called as our opponents ranges are weak), do we need the postflop value to make this spot long term +ev? How loose would your 3b range be in this spot?

A spot i had at the Empire the other day.

I have been at the table for one hour playing snug. There is a guy on my table who i've played with a couple times before with a huge betsizing tell - he has two preflop opening sizes which correlate to his hand strength, one of £6 which is something weak and of £12-15 which is a monster. Eg he opens for £6 from mp and tables 56o at showdown, with AA he makes it like £15 etc. I've played with him enough to be near certain of this tell.

So he opens to £6 from MP1 on a full handed table ~£600
Loose fish (likes to call opens, unsure about reaction to 3bets) calls ~£400
Loose fish II (same as above) ~£130
Folds to me on the button with £250. I hold  

Blinds have more than £200

Squeeze +ev? Or is my hand too bad incase i get called?

Why do we think flatting doesn't look stronger than shoving?

I'm really on the fence here

Because it's a $10 freeze... There is no way they are going to tighten their range if you flat as opposed to a shove. It's safe to assume that they are on a level where they still think that we would be shoving JJ-AA for "protection" and just assume that we have a weaker range. This is obviously a huge assumption, but it doesn't really matter because it's an assumption that has no negative effects.                                                               

Generally disagree

Flat pre, call river.

With the price you're getting pre peeling seems mandatory to me.

If you had fold equity i'd definitely shove the flop, but it's probably a fold now.

Yep, fine.

well it's not a fold.

I call. Too many combinations of draws, as opposed to combinations of T8/88/22. Can't see what else he could have.

he either has an open ender or the FD.

I think i agree he's probably not got a monster, his sizing doesn't seem like it. It's also quite hard to have a big hand on this board. Lots of combinations of draws.

Call/lead blank turns?

/thread

bet, bet, bet is generally the way to go when you have a good hand at £1/2

My point is I know his range is so wide here, hence the reason I have 4 bet him putting him in a spot where the only way he can really shove is with a 10 which is unlikely or with 66? Do you not agree that the 4 bet is my only option once he has check raised me??

Yeah i get what you're saying that he isn't really repping anything, but would you really 4bet AA or Tx for value here or would you peel? I think you''d call.