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1  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: October 26, 2018, 05:18:47 PM
https://www.epsilontheory.com/things-fall-apart-part-3-markets/

"God help us, but there’s an argument for Bitcoin here."

Don't want to answer too directly Adz but yes to the first one, taken cash throughout and enough to move from poker to crypto trading, I trade relatively small positions short term I'd say compared to actual traders but I spend all my time reading and thinking about crypto pretty much.

Not really on the rise, steadily down with some bounces is the easiest way to put things I guess. Can see some easy charts on livecoinwatch.com or coinmarketcap.com

2  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: October 25, 2018, 12:04:28 AM
I'm sorry Leavers see engagement and discussion as moaning. I suppose people are meant to suppress their beliefs and march to the pipers tune in this situation. Stiff upper lip and all that.
3  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: October 25, 2018, 12:03:23 AM

This is undoubtedly true. but is it enough invalidate a referendum that attracted 34 million voters? Again most voted on the issues of immigration and sovereignty. Would you re-run general elections on the basis that manifestos contained lies?

again we see the patronisation were you don't credit people with being able to weigh evidence. people decide to vote based on the last catchiest slogan they saw on a bus? its quiet staggering the belittlement behind the 'bus = new vote needed' trope.

2) Many Leavers have claimed throughout that there is no short or medium term economic damage. "Project Fear" does not sound like Leavers accepting the economic damage, it simply is them trying to say the Government was trying to scare them (not that I disagree with that.)

many have and many still do. some think that after the storm we will be in a much stronger position economically they all  might be proven correct.

again we were presented with arguments on both sides, in a democracy we credit people with being able to weigh evidence and decide for themselves.  i personally very much agree that there will be adverse economic consequences. but i think they are a cost worth bearing and not something that can't be overcome.

that some leave voters saw the same economic arguments as remainers, yet dared to come to a different conclusion does not mean we should re run a vote with 34m participants.

3) I do not see why when the issue is so divisive AND people are now better informed, how having another referendum could be considered undemocratic. I do understand repeating a referendum until you get the result you want is. However, I don't think this is a fair comparison. Even the staunchest Leaver must admit, we were under prepared and things are a real mess.

welll as we approach brexit we were always going to have more information on what brexit looks like. so we can have multiple votes running up to leaving, no matter how many time leave might win.

most expected turbulence - certainly nearly all remain voters would have predicted that leaving was going to prove a shit show. we voted for this, it's part of the process of leaving.

 
4) I stopped discussing politics with one of my closest friends who is a Leaver, after he insisted that Turkey will join the EU. How do you debate with that level of delusion? The issue is too polarising, neither side really listen to one another. It just strengthens people's existing view, which seeing as I regard this issue as grey and not black or white then further discussion is counter productive.

the issue is polarising as it was boiled down to a yes /no question. why though is your friend concerned about turkey joining the eu? well,  it was something that was being discussed seriously at one point, i believe they had applied for membership and it was seriously being considered this decade. but why might your friend be concerned? i don't believe that not wanting an open border with turkey is an extreme position. the belief / fear that it is definitely going to happen is likely down to believing that multiculturalism is a failed and dangerous experiment.

again engage him on this, it's not an irrational fear when turkey's accession was very much on the cards pretty recently

5) The irrationality of voters can clearly be seen by the counties that both pay/receive EU money. London who pays vote to Remain, Cornwall, North West vote to leave despite being beneficiary.


again you ascribe irrationality where there is none.

people who voted leave did so mainly out of concern of sovereignty and immigration. that they weren't swayed by wads of money shows that those concerns weghed more heavily on their decision than money. living in net £££ areas was not as much of a concern. you automatically assume that is because they are irrational people not able to properly assess the issues that are most important to them.

its why you didnt win them over before and why you are nowhere near winning them over now.



Yes, you are correct, I do not believe the average person can accurately weigh up the evidence for such a complex decision. I know I have greater than average interest and more importantly time to research these things and did not come to a decision regarding the referendum. At no point did I state anything regarding a new referendum. I stated that I do not see how it could be seen as undemocratic to have a second vote when the country has more information. I understand why you feel that way however, because you won and you are now scared to lose.

Again, the comparison between a General Election and this Referendum is unfair. This isn't some Zimbabwean election repeat election rigging we are talking about. There is no need to re-do elections where a politician is perceived to have lied because there is already natural repetition. There will be another General Election anyway and therefore the politician and party face consequences for their lies. Whereas in this case I believe the electorate was lied to and has no recompense. Furthermore, we are still awaiting the court trial examining the financial misdealings of the Leave campaign. If upheld, would that impact your decision? Again, not that I stated we should have another referendum, but that I do not understand the undemocratic argument. You agree people have more information now. You agree that there are some weaknesses to a simple yes/no question. But another referendum is undemocratic because it affects the result you want. If the referendum was close on the other side, I believe I wouldn't have had a problem with a second vote. I certainly believed Farage when he said he would not stop asking to Leave.

I'm really not a fan of the EU or the red tape caused by it. I believe the Euro is an absolute disaster waiting to happen, and that would have a huge impact on my overall views of the EU. Britain being forced to join the Euro would be a line in the sand for me. However, I do not believe the country is in the right economic state or political climate to make the price of leaving now acceptable. I do not believe it was planned at all and the political talent to lead a successful exit has never really been there in my opinion.

Re; Turkey, I'm not sure if you've looked into this but I know negotiations were open at various times but no progress has been made. Negotiations opened in 2004, 16 out of 35 chapters have been opened and one has been closed successfully.  I really cba to discuss it more, as you won't change your mind and neither will I. It is clear to me whilst Erdogan is in charge, Turkey will never join the EU. Can we just bet that Turkey will or won't join the EU over a certain time horizon? I'm happy to lay some odds on this depending on time frames.

You misunderstood my point 5. I said its irrational because I do not believe the voters even knew or understood that information beforehand. Unless you want to argue that the immigration side is about race and not money, which is clearly something that the Leave side of the forum would get extremely defensive about, then you must agree it is irrational. I believe they thought/think they would be monetarily better off, which is fine to think, but also irrational to me at least in the medium term.

I'm not sure why you have ascribed this view to me that I am a hardcore Remainer. I believe I've tended to take the opposition view in most conversations around this topic. On this forum and in real life that has largely been on the Remain side, due to luck. I typically get rather annoyed at both polarities of the spectrum. I'm also somewhat biased having lived outside England for the last 6 years, and this will probably be the final nail in the coffin for me living again in England unless I am forced to return. Politically I'm not even sure where I land. Socially liberal but I do not believe in left wing economic policy. I largely believe the state is a necessary requirement in a capitalistic society to redistribute wealth and power away from corporations (and the institutions that support them) and towards individuals. Hardly sounds like a hardcore EU supporter, but I could be wrong.

Also never really got the sovereignty stuff; I've not found much evidence that the EU is stopping us from enacting any particular legislation we would want but I could be wrong. This is an interesting topic at the moment after the recent refusal of the EU to accept the budget put forward by the Italian government, so I can see this side of the argument, but again I didn't see any evidence of it at the time, and still struggle to see how it applies to Britain. I think my sides might actually split if a Corbyn budget the EU wouldn't have approved gets enacted.

Lol at this article btw; https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/27/boris-johnson-says-britain-will-now-help-turkey-join-eu-despite/

Also I'm surprised to be saying this but Farage talks a lot of sense during this speech, although I can't comment on the Olly Robbins stuff. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-45959456

4  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: October 24, 2018, 06:29:23 PM
I don’t think this is actually crypto but saw reference to “new payment network” so seemed relevant. Could well just be a massive ponzi/pyramid scheme too, but only asked for an email rather than my life savings. Can handle giving up my spam hotmail address for the chance of untold riches Smiley

www.initiativeq.com



I saw this too and signed up, 2021 until anything seems likely to happen. Not sure I'm buying it either but freeroll.
5  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: October 24, 2018, 06:21:16 PM
I mean Mantis has regurgitated the "get beyond the boys" spiel like its the run up to a World Cup or something. I really don't think he has accepted short to medium term economic damage, not that I fancy going through this thread to find examples.
6  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: October 24, 2018, 06:17:31 PM
I don't think the author understands what a Ponzi scheme is. Fraudulent for sure, and Crypto has seen actual ponzi schemes (bitconnect) but most icos are just terrible ideas. They don't even grant token holders any particular rights so often its hard to even argue its fraud imo.
7  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: October 24, 2018, 06:13:57 PM
the remain side will continue to lose the arguments as they fail to engage in any debate that isn't centered around the short-mid term damage leaving will cause whilst loftily saying that we were tricked into ticking an option that we now must regret.

people voting leave overwhelmingly voted on two issues: immigration and autonomy.

we were well aware of the downsides of leaving - how could we not be, remains campaign was a procession of warnings of the economic terror to come.

remain continue to fight a campaign that simply tells leave voters that we were too ignorant to make an informed decision, that we are old xenophobes, that we voted in error and that the biggest democratic event in recent history wasnt democratic enough and needs to be re-run a couple of years later.

had leave voters been treated with respect and had their concerns met with debate then you might not need middle class teenagers with ironic rick astley placards pleading for a referendum to be overturned on the premise that working class folk haven't a nuanced enough view on issues that effect their lives for their vote to be taken at first value first time round.

leave voters had a cogent and consistent view on this for years before the referendum,, our views arent going to be swayed by being patronised

1) Leave Campaign told outright lies throughout- see claims re NHS and EU contributions which failed to take into account rebates.
2) Many Leavers have claimed throughout that there is no short or medium term economic damage. "Project Fear" does not sound like Leavers accepting the economic damage, it simply is them trying to say the Government was trying to scare them (not that I disagree with that.)
3) I do not see why when the issue is so divisive AND people are now better informed, how having another referendum could be considered undemocratic. I do understand repeating a referendum until you get the result you want is. However, I don't think this is a fair comparison. Even the staunchest Leaver must admit, we were under prepared and things are a real mess.
4) I stopped discussing politics with one of my closest friends who is a Leaver, after he insisted that Turkey will join the EU. How do you debate with that level of delusion? The issue is too polarising, neither side really listen to one another. It just strengthens people's existing view, which seeing as I regard this issue as grey and not black or white then further discussion is counter productive.
5) The irrationality of voters can clearly be seen by the counties that both pay/receive EU money. London who pays vote to Remain, Cornwall, North West vote to leave despite being beneficiary.

https://www.epsilontheory.com/things-fall-apart-pt-1/

Link from a smart man who understands the polarising nature of our political climate at the moment.

A question Leavers may really want to consider. Is leaving the EU worth it, if it puts Corbyn in the driving seat? Be careful what you wish for.


8  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: October 02, 2018, 10:59:31 PM
100,000,000,000 * 589 = 58,900,000,000,000

59 Trillion market cap. Not that marketcap is a great metric in crypto due to the poor liquidity of virtually every coin (even bitcoin is arguably illiquid despite the high trading volumes the slippage on selling 1% of the total supply in a week would be huge) See scams like Dentacoin for this.

"For purists, who believe “money” refers only to physical “narrow money” (bank notes, coins, and money deposited in savings or checking accounts), the total is somewhere around $36.8 trillion. If you’re looking at “broad money,” which isn’t just physical money and includes any money held in easily accessible accounts, the number is about $90.4 trillion."

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-is-how-much-money-exists-in-the-entire-world-in-one-chart-2015-12-18

589 is such an absurdity.

Ace, I think you are right that BTC makes a poor currency. As the "digital gold" it makes a lot more sense to me but we have to see what happens with layer two solutions before making any strong conclusions. Agree with your other thoughts re markets and central banks but I'm a touch more hopeful time wise. Scary chart below, not sure why it wouldn't embed. Not sure on how we plan on getting out of a financial crises this time.

https://imgur.com/1165ddT


Also would you have any trading book recommendations? I've read a few classics like Stock Market Wizards, Reminisces of a stock operator but always looking for more.
9  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: September 30, 2018, 11:08:45 PM
....
What have you bought or sold for gold?

Gold is a store of value and not a medium of exchange. I think gold would be considered a commodity now? Medium of exchange is a characteristic of money and not a commodity.

In the event of societal collapse/dark ages scenario I do not particularly see the value in gold, I think food/water/weapons would be more valuable at this point but I understand your point. Its a bit of a pedantic argument from my side (on both accounts but im not sure if im just confused)

Gold was used as a medium of exchange for about 2500 years - it doesn't seem like the worst theory in the world that it could again.

Agree with that, we have already seen a push from Arab countries (and ISIS) about a return of the Gold Dinar. I just don't think you can currently say Gold is a medium of exchange.
10  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The UK Politics and EU Referendum thread - merged on: September 30, 2018, 11:07:20 PM
idiot

Its obvious. We just leave the WTO.
11  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: September 30, 2018, 07:12:49 PM
I'm not sure why you used the word legitimate ace but gold is clearly a terrible means of exchange. If it wasn't we wouldn't have needed paper money. It's heavy and indivisible.

If not for price volatility Bitcoin would be a far superior medium of exchange.

Hey Mango, yeah I'm trading crypto full time at the moment. Nice call on xrp btw, got in a few days ago. It might actually hold the number 2 spot for a period after this. I saw it briefly went over today again. Def more of a short term play for me but it's shown a lot of strength.



Gold is a legitimate medium of exchange, it’s functionality/practicality in a modern day society is questionable but so is bitcoins. If we were ever to return to the dark ages due to war or natural catastrophe then gold would again be the standard.

Price volatility will always be bitcoins achiles heel, until it loses this volatility, it cannot be considered by the business community as an efficient way of selling goods or services. For bitcoin to succeed, it needs global acceptance. That is something it doesn’t have from the man in the street right through to the large institutions. Whether this might change in the future, who knows.

What have you bought or sold for gold?

Gold is a store of value and not a medium of exchange. I think gold would be considered a commodity now? Medium of exchange is a characteristic of money and not a commodity.

In the event of societal collapse/dark ages scenario I do not particularly see the value in gold, I think food/water/weapons would be more valuable at this point but I understand your point. Its a bit of a pedantic argument from my side (on both accounts but im not sure if im just confused)
12  Poker Forums / The Rail / Re: The *official* "whatever happened to?" thread on: September 30, 2018, 01:58:03 PM

rfqqabc, aka Adam Picken.

Not posted since April.

Don't see him much at the O8 tables anymore.   Can't say I have seen him since April, but may have done.  I haven't seen him much in the last year or so.

Moved to mostly cash mid 2016 or so and then crypto struck me last year. Played a few coops and a bit of zoom but not interested in mtt grinding tbh.

Fell out with blonde a bit tikay and found my political outlet elsewhere

13  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: The Next President of the United States on: September 30, 2018, 01:52:25 PM
Why are there not more calls for Kavanaugh to take a lie detector test ?

Dr Ford took one I believe in 2012 and passed .

With his mate who was in the room at the time saying he cannot remember then as
usual it’s a he said she said situation .

If the FBI requested a test my guess is he would decline.

Found her testimony very credible .

Aren't they useless? Not admissible in court I thought in most places, seems like a bit of a joke. Would be interesting in this case where the court of public opinion has been made up.
14  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: September 30, 2018, 01:50:19 PM
I'm not sure why you used the word legitimate ace but gold is clearly a terrible means of exchange. If it wasn't we wouldn't have needed paper money. It's heavy and indivisible.

If not for price volatility Bitcoin would be a far superior medium of exchange.

Hey Mango, yeah I'm trading crypto full time at the moment. Nice call on xrp btw, got in a few days ago. It might actually hold the number 2 spot for a period after this. I saw it briefly went over today again. Def more of a short term play for me but it's shown a lot of strength.

15  Community Forums / The Lounge / Re: Official cryptocurrency thread (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Altcoin) on: September 26, 2018, 05:02:39 PM
What do you mean that institutions rule the roost?

Yes sub $100 eth is more likely than $10k. I would take that bet too (who said that, can't find it).

Bitcoin has indeed done very well each time it has been tested at the 6k level, it goes without saying the more often it is tested and holds the more it says about what people think it is worth. I can offer some input regarding this. I actually now work for a bitcoin broker in the Netherlands and last month was the biggest drop in seller % and largest increase in buyers. That trend means a lot given that the hype has gone away. The hype will return just like it has done in 6 or 7 cycles previously. I feel very very bullish for BTC in the next few months and am very excited to see what happens. Maybe someone wants to take a friendly bet that BTC will break 10k before Dec 31st with me? Smiley We probably keep testing support but I feel pretty good about the worst case scenario being hovering around 6-7k for a while.

I do agree with the state of a lot of coins not reaching their ATH's for a long time, I would also disagree and say that a lot of them will never reach their ATH again, this is of course easy feel this way during such a bear market. The future is very unknown and I have never felt confident about the value of a lot of alts in terms of their dollar value, however, I don't believe that makes their value redundant.



I mean the price of Bitcoin is being manipulated by the institutions in the futures markets. It’s in their interests for the price to go much lower than it is today, so they can buy bitcoin at some stage in the future from panicked sellers.

Bitcoin is being compared to Gold in regards to the proposed ETFs, but in my opinion a large part of the upswing in the gold price was to do with it being a safe haven asset during the financial crisis. Bitcoin is anything but a safe haven asset.





A little contradictory no? Wasn't gold supposed to have been manipulated over the years? I don't deny in the belief that has happened with bitcoin too, I just don't know enough about this sort of behaviour.

What makes gold such a safe haven asset? (I already know the answers, I just want to hear it from you)

What makes Bitcoin anything but a safe haven asset?

New technology poses risks, see recent CVE inflation bug. Highly volatile. Unclear regulatory environment.

Not sure if safe haven refers to censorship resistant or risk on/risk off. Its hard to say BTC is risk off compared to traditional risk off assets like Gold or Government Bonds. I think the run up in price coincides with new asset class emergence combined with factors of; low faith in government and the tech led market boom in recent years.

Trump and Brexit are good examples but also see recent reports on Crypto ownership in Brazil, a country where the establishment is facing a crisis at the moment. Korea has also seen protests against the government and also has high levels of interest in cryptocurrency.

SP500 had a significant top in January that has taken roughly 6 months to consolidate past, the risk on/off narrative could be applied here, but I don't want to overlook the overall market cycle crypto had and its certainly not strongly correlated but I think its worth thinking about.
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