River...

[mondatoo]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

Clearly you no your shit, plus I'm pissed, but you said yourself if villain isn't going to call/bluff with worse then it's clearly a calll and since he sigh calls with top 2 I'm unsure what we get value from ??

[Patonius2000]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

Clearly you no your shit, plus I'm pissed, but you said yourself if villain isn't going to call/bluff with worse then it's clearly a calll and since he sigh calls with top 2 I'm unsure what we get value from ??

I'm not arguing that we should raise (I think we probably should but it's close) I'm saying that not making a play because it is high variance is really dumb in a spot like this. I mean justifying calling because raising is "high variance" is basically akin to saying "cba to do range analysis", which is what matters when we raise the river in almost any situation.

[Patonius2000]

Also if he sigh calls top two there is a good chance he calls with worse than top two.

[mondatoo]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

Clearly you no your shit, plus I'm pissed, but you said yourself if villain isn't going to call/bluff with worse then it's clearly a calll and since he sigh calls with top 2 I'm unsure what we get value from ??

I'm not arguing that we should raise (I think we probably should but it's close) I'm saying that not making a play because it is high variance is really dumb in a spot like this. I mean justifying calling because raising is "high variance" is basically akin to saying "cba to do range analysis", which is what matters when we raise the river in almost any situation.

I never once said it was due to high variance, I genuinely think he expects us to be super strong and I dont understand how the fact he huge sigh calls with top 2 doesnt prove that. But since I can't see straight maybe I'm wrong.

[SuuPRlim]

If id have known he was gonna hate his life with top two then I would have defo just called, when I raised I thought he  prolly wouldn't call AK/AQ, but there is a ton of random stuff in da live pokers that makes people level themselves and act against your view of them (like the way i was breathing/acting etc, he might have a tilting text msg from his girlfriend and be life steaming, or have been bluffed by someone in a similar spot yesterday and the hand is still bothering him) - as it happens AJ isn't miles away from AK in immeadiate value, (except that it beats A9) so he may well have sigh called that hand as well.

would have been awesome if he'd folded and I'd pulled a sick merge off by accident

[Patonius2000]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

Clearly you no your shit, plus I'm pissed, but you said yourself if villain isn't going to call/bluff with worse then it's clearly a calll and since he sigh calls with top 2 I'm unsure what we get value from ??

I'm not arguing that we should raise (I think we probably should but it's close) I'm saying that not making a play because it is high variance is really dumb in a spot like this. I mean justifying calling because raising is "high variance" is basically akin to saying "cba to do range analysis", which is what matters when we raise the river in almost any situation.

I never once said it was due to high variance, I genuinely think he expects us to be super strong and I dont understand how the fact he huge sigh calls with top 2 doesnt prove that. But since I can't see straight maybe I'm wrong.

1) No you didn't, someone else did.
2) It is because AJ is similar to AK in relative hand strength. In other words if he sigh calls top two there's a good chance he sigh call top pair since he doesnt expect lild to value raise anything < top two.

[SuuPRlim]

Also, lets not forget even though Id been playing kinda straight forward vs him for obv reasons I do look hilariously laggy/slightly scandi with my new glasses on

[smashedagain]

It's your birthday. Piss off and do something balla you muppet.

[mondatoo]

I'm never raising the river here in a lol vegas 10-25 plently of roflcopter spots about no need to go high variance against the winners.

I kinda agree with this actually

Really? IMO too many people worry about variance or justify x play because it's low/high variance and in reality they don't even have a clue what variance is/means from a statistical standpoint. You should worry about expected value and only expected value unless you can pull the kelly criterion and justify taking lower variance lines in accordance with your bankroll/your edge within the game. In short misunderstanding variance and using it as blanket word to justify plays that can situationally be broken down by looking at range/pot size/EV is going to lead to more mistakes than if you just play poker and stop trying to look at the bigger picture. You don't understand the bigger picture unless you are a degree level statistician.

PS. Obviously there are spots where it is clear you don't want to take high variance lines (flipping for your case roll in a super soft game etc etc) but this is not one of those spots.

Clearly you no your shit, plus I'm pissed, but you said yourself if villain isn't going to call/bluff with worse then it's clearly a calll and since he sigh calls with top 2 I'm unsure what we get value from ??

I'm not arguing that we should raise (I think we probably should but it's close) I'm saying that not making a play because it is high variance is really dumb in a spot like this. I mean justifying calling because raising is "high variance" is basically akin to saying "cba to do range analysis", which is what matters when we raise the river in almost any situation.

I never once said it was due to high variance, I genuinely think he expects us to be super strong and I dont understand how the fact he huge sigh calls with top 2 doesnt prove that. But since I can't see straight maybe I'm wrong.

1) No you didn't, someone else did.
2) It is because AJ is similar to AK in relative hand strength. In other words if he sigh calls top two there's a good chance he sigh call top pair since he doesnt expect lild to value raise anything < top two.

Should just ignore me when I post around this time on a weekend

[skolsuper]

Raise, I think he's gunna bet bigger on the end with most of his value range that beats you.

Looks a lot like Ax one pair, maybe J9

I'd make it 3.8k

fwiw I think he is going to show up with AK/AQ/AT an OVERWHELMING amount of the time

Then you answered your own question

He's almost never going to turn these hands into bluffs so raising is at worst EV neutral in comparison to calling

obv wrong. he needs to call with worse hands to make a raise worthwhile because a raise is more expensive than a call when he has better

[skolsuper]

also raise pre
[/quote

i mean call

you alrite mate, bit too much time in the sun

I won't be worrying about my image too much after this hand, the player in question I've played a bit with and am not really looking to him for much value, if he thinks I'm tighter/loser than I am I'll just deal with it.

When I raise, can I rep ANY bluffs at all, not sure he'd expect me to turn a Jack into a bluff hardy ever, I can have 8Ts as well

give me $5800 on the river instead of $8200 and what do you wanna do?

It's 'looser' Dave, not 'loser'.

[George2Loose]

also raise pre
[/quote

i mean call

you alrite mate, bit too much time in the sun

I won't be worrying about my image too much after this hand, the player in question I've played a bit with and am not really looking to him for much value, if he thinks I'm tighter/loser than I am I'll just deal with it.

When I raise, can I rep ANY bluffs at all, not sure he'd expect me to turn a Jack into a bluff hardy ever, I can have 8Ts as well

give me $5800 on the river instead of $8200 and what do you wanna do?

It's 'looser' Dave, not 'loser'.

This was what my "cue James Keys" post in Alex's diary was about.

[skolsuper]

The fact that you're playing against good players doesn't mean you should live in fear of being blown off every hand

Very true. We're not talking about every hand though we're talking about this one.

You say you expect to get shipped on a very small %age of the time.

How often do you expect to get called by a 'very very good' player?

Do you think he calls AK?

With our image he can't ever think AK is good here but he may have done when he initially bet.

If he was value betting he was probably going for the old bet/fold move himself so doesn't pay you off. Alternatively he may decide you haven't got much better than him, turn his hand in to a bluff and jam. (Unlikely but possible)

If he was bluffing he's never paying you off but may jam thinking you are bluffing (again unlikely but possible)

If he has a set he probably jams or at least calls.

Basically from what I can see he's not calling with anything you beat.

The most likely things for him to do are fold, then jam, then call in that order.

If I'm raise/folding I want that order to be call, then fold, then jam.

Don't get me wrong I'm giving the guy a lot of credit here which he perhaps doesn't deserve.

If calling with worse seems to outweigh his other options then ofc raise/fold is great. I don't see it here though.

Brilliant piece of wisdom. Sometimes you need a fish to come along and state the obvious for everyone to see the wood not the trees.

[SuuPRlim]

oh james keys........