Sit and go bubble situation

[Bertpup]

Party poker speed sit and go Blinds go up every 5 mins and is a super super fast structure with Money to top 3 50,30,20

***** Hand History for Game 5027899061 *****
NL Texas Hold'em $11 Buy-in Trny:27852998 Level:6 Blinds(300/600) - Friday, August 25, 20:38:54 ET 2006
Table Speed #1290638 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 1: hanson244 ( $230 )
Seat 9: MoneySpeaks ( $6680 )
Seat 2: Bertpup ( $7984 )
Seat 5: gtasteele ( $5106 )
Trny:27852998 Level:6
Blinds(300/600)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Bertpup [  ]
>You have options at Speed #1290690 Table!.
MoneySpeaks raises [1200].
hanson244 folds.

Do you go all in or fold?

Edit Image is pretty tight but have just started to loosen up

[SupaMonkey]

I would fold.

[ifm]

interesting..........
I think it depends on table image, if you have been tightish so far it's a good move.

[thetank]

I just more than mini-raise (ish) and put him all-in on the flop. (if he calls)

If he goes all-in over the top of the raise pre-flop, I fold of course. They usually don't without AA/KK in this spot though.

[bolt pp]

insta fold on the bubble with the stacks as they are

[leighton_87]

Fold, instantly.

[Newportlad]

I agree, i fold here.

If im reading this right, then there is still a person to act behind you who has a fair few chips.
Fold, and move onto the next hand.

[Dale]

easy push, he's an idiot if he calls you with anything.

I push here 100% of the time.

[ACE2M]

I may have missed something but i fold here 100% of the time.

[Dale]

i think tanks idea is the worst option 

[ifm]

I may have missed something but i fold here 100% of the time.

Basically he is asking if you put a move on the guy.
If you go allin here he will fold a huge percentage of the time making it a very profitable thing to do.
It's not for all of course and you can end up looking like a right tit at times

[totalise]

Dale,

he is an idiot if he calls with bad cards.. but this is an $11 sng. they are full of idiots. The liklihood of getting called here is reasonably high. Just because people should fold doesn't mean they will fold. Blankly pushing here against unknowns is  +EV, but as a whole the move is nowhere near as profitable as you would expect.. because of their tendancy to call when they shouldn't . Against unknowns its a clear push, but against people that have given you reason to believe they will call, it probably isn't.

My general thinking in these spots is:

I would push 100% of the time in this spot against people who have given me no clear reason to make me think they will call. Pushing in these spots every time will work out to be +EV, but I think exercising a bit of player reading at the table and selectively folding makes it a higher EV spot.

Ace,

Look at the stack on the button.. is the other guy gonna risk going out on the bubble here when theres someone in there with 235 chips? ICM is something that equates tournament equity in given situations, and such is the situation here.. the guy is making an equity mistake if he calls with anything other then (something like) AA/KK and maybe QQ (i dont know for sure.. I didnt work it out) Thats the premise of Dales post, which I agree with most of the time (my one disagreement is in the prev paragraph)

[Dale]

ok I did the ev math. If you push on him and he puts you on any 2 random cards, he can only call you with AA, anything else is -ev for him.

ofcourse he's probably not smart enough to know this so if he calls with something AK its very -ev for him, very -ev for you and very +ev for the other 2 stacks.

I still push this 100% of the time and then get berated in the chat box in one of those common situations where the idiot is calling me an idiot because he doesnt understand sngs.

[Dale]

Dale,

he is an idiot if he calls with bad cards.. but this is an $11 sng. they are full of idiots. The liklihood of getting called here is reasonably high. Just because people should fold doesn't mean they will fold.

I agree to a degree. Ok if i think the raiser is a total fish idiot i fold. So.... I push 90% of the time 
Readless.... I push.

[boldie]

I just more than mini-raise (ish) and put him all-in on the flop. (if he calls)

If he goes all-in over the top of the raise pre-flop, I fold of course. They usually don't without AA/KK in this spot though.

it's a fold...I can't believe people are sugegsting a push here. (no offense to anyone who does) Hanson only has 230$ left...he's going to be BB in 2 hands time.
You still have one guy to act behind you (BB I'm assuming by the way you wrote it up). So you lose you SB..you have no position in this hand and =unless hanson gets lucky in the next two hands he's out.

Insta fold...suited connectors are of no use in this situation as it's all about getting into the money first.