good call or bad call?

[Royal Flush]

I don't get how you can be 90% sure......


Getting 180 BB's in with AJ hi is usually a long term losing play.

like I said it was all in the physical tells, one is highlighted by Caro and the other was just through time at the table with Steven.

I know long terms its a losing play and i would have folded most of the time, Surely you have to trust your reads in the live game?

To a degree, i don't know how you are 90% sure? Why are you not 100% sure?

[Newmanseye]

Well it had been 3 weeks since i played against him and he may have plugged this hole in his game, if he has and gave me a reverse tell I am pretty much "Butt F*cked without the KY", hence the 10%.

Another factor was that Steven was involved and took down 3 or 4 pots from that orbit alone which seemed a little loose for him.

(1) 1 tell preflop
(2) in too many pots recently
(3) A further tell after i checkraised him
(4) he had shown a few junk hands where he intention of a move but hit the flop hard.

These 4 factors alone told me to call.

[WellChief]

I think that you make far too much of these tells that you always seem to talk about. 

[SupaMonkey]

The only problem i have with this is that you have 148*BB at the beginning of the hand.

[Royal Flush]

The only problem i have with this is that you have 148*BB at the beginning of the hand.

180!

[SupaMonkey]

Did that one in my head, can you tell.

[temp0r]

well i guessed one of the cards right anyway. you made a great call mate and no-one should be able to tell you any different. you have to ask yourself had you considered everything possible before making the call? was this player smart enough to give off reverse-tells or double bluffs? don't get overconfident next time and make a call based around tells without thinking about this..

as for the 180 x the BB thing. thats irrelevant in my opinion if you're so sure your opponent is on a move. i've called for over 200 x BB with Ace high on the turn before on the very first hand of a tournament and caught one of London's best cash game players making a move with King high. all based on physical tells i'd picked up whilst playing him the night before. if people at the table told you that you made a stupid call so what? you know what reason you called for and thats all that matters.

[Newmanseye]

Cheers for the opinions guys, I was well chuffed with my call to be honest, But i was also thinking during the hand " how the F*ck did i get so deep in this hand with ace high?"

A few people did wonder how I could call with ace high and the comments were wide and varied.  I appreciate thats its a huge risk on a very marginal hand but I find it difficult to fold when I am sure i am ahead.

Thanks again


Billy

[Bazzaboy]

Surely there are a number of holdings he could have where he would be giving off the same tell but actually be ahead of Ace high?

[JungleCat03]

Surely there are a number of holdings he could have where he would be giving off the same tell but actually be ahead of Ace high?

That's the thing. If he does this exact same thing with bottom pair, he is making a move and he is bluffing, but yet he has AJ beat up.

If you are 90% sure you are ahead then of course you call. But I have my doubts about whether you can ever be 90% sure A high is good based on a single physical tell. Even telepaths have a 12% margin of error.

[Newmanseye]

there were 2 physical tells, and other factors which i have explained above which brought me to the conclusion i was ahead.

[bhoywonder]

gutsy,commendaable and quite mental


all 3


lol

[Timaloy]

Well it had been 3 weeks since i played against him and he may have plugged this hole in his game, if he has and gave me a reverse tell I am pretty much "Butt F*cked without the KY", hence the 10%.

Another factor was that Steven was involved and took down 3 or 4 pots from that orbit alone which seemed a little loose for him.

(1) 1 tell preflop
(2) in too many pots recently
(3) A further tell after i checkraised him
(4) he had shown a few junk hands where he intention of a move but hit the flop hard.

These 4 factors alone told me to call.

Where there 2 Steven's at the table because the only 2 hands that where played and shown down where trip 2'd and 2 pair. Blinds where 150/300 and it was raised 900 (total standard raise), re raised 2400 more called in position and raised to 4400 on the flop when checked too, then re raised to 10k and a move all-in after 5 seconds exactly the same as 3 hands previous when holding 2 pr against opponent aces.

As for the junk hands, 46 suited in position when calling 200 into a 1350 pot, doesn't really show an intention of making a move, hit 2 pr, open ended Star draw and possibly a flush draw are the requirements to continue in the pot not to make a move.

Wonder what the physical tells where, sounds like a cover phrase not an explanation for the call.  Remember you turned round and said "Is that cash game up? ah well i call..." doesn't sound like a man calling when hes 90% sure hes ahead  Little more like a desperation call. Correct call at the end. What hand did you have me on.  Also you never stopped to study me, you leaned back on your chair on its back 2 lets and made the comment to the cash game plus you did'nt say anything about A high being good till I let out a sigh and said "you made that call because of the cash game?".

[Timaloy]

Well it had been 3 weeks since i played against him and he may have plugged this hole in his game, if he has and gave me a reverse tell I am pretty much "Butt F*cked without the KY", hence the 10%.

Another factor was that Steven was involved and took down 3 or 4 pots from that orbit alone which seemed a little loose for him.

(1) 1 tell preflop
(2) in too many pots recently
(3) A further tell after i checkraised him
(4) he had shown a few junk hands where he intention of a move but hit the flop hard.

These 4 factors alone told me to call.

1 - 3x BB raise pre flop as always in an unopened pot
2 - Only played 3 hands the whole time at the table, 1st 2 pr 2nd folded to a bet on the flop in a multi limped pot and 3rd trips.
3 - Any further explanation
4 - Only played 3 hands

Lotta holes.. 

[Newmanseye]

Well it had been 3 weeks since i played against him and he may have plugged this hole in his game, if he has and gave me a reverse tell I am pretty much "Butt F*cked without the KY", hence the 10%.

Another factor was that Steven was involved and took down 3 or 4 pots from that orbit alone which seemed a little loose for him.

(1) 1 tell preflop
(2) in too many pots recently
(3) A further tell after i checkraised him
(4) he had shown a few junk hands where he intention of a move but hit the flop hard.

These 4 factors alone told me to call.

Where there 2 Steven's at the table because the only 2 hands that where played and shown down where trip 2'd and 2 pair. Blinds where 150/300 and it was raised 900 (total standard raise), re raised 2400 more called in position and raised to 4400 on the flop when checked too, then re raised to 10k and a move all-in after 5 seconds exactly the same as 3 hands previous when holding 2 pr against opponent aces.

As for the junk hands, 46 suited in position when calling 200 into a 1350 pot, doesn't really show an intention of making a move, hit 2 pr, open ended Star draw and possibly a flush draw are the requirements to continue in the pot not to make a move.

Wonder what the physical tells where, sounds like a cover phrase not an explanation for the call.  Remember you turned round and said "Is that cash game up? ah well i call..." doesn't sound like a man calling when hes 90% sure hes ahead  Little more like a desperation call. Correct call at the end. What hand did you have me on.  Also you never stopped to study me, you leaned back on your chair on its back 2 lets and made the comment to the cash game plus you did'nt say anything about A high being good till I let out a sigh and said "you made that call because of the cash game?".

righty The set of 2's were against me whenI turned the flush, and I would not call that one of the junk hands, My point was you were overinvolved that round, you were taking blinds without the show down.

As for the cash game comment I did say that as I have been known to be wrong you know, I was not 100% sure  but there was so much in the pot and I was so sure I had you I made the call knowing the cash game was in the early stages I could get in there and make some money if I was wrong.