Trusting your gut, mugs game or best way to play.

[totalise]

it all depends on how you have done with a certain hand the previous few times... if you have won your last three races with AK vs a smaller pair... you should be more likely to fold AK this time round because its "about time" that your AK lost.. you cant keep winning the flips.

Conversely if you have lost with AK the last few times, you should get into the pot asap as you are more likely to win

The same applies to flushdraws as well.

This can be closely correlated to optimum roulette theory, you see the experts all the time holding their 25p chips, studying the previous few spins, and if the last 3 or 4 have gone red, they will lump onto black, because the law of averages state that it is more likely to be black

Bear all this in mind, and you most certainly can become not only a professional poker player, but a professional roulette player as well

[Newmanseye]

I think your sig tells us more about your state of mind than anything you've posted in this thread.

If you've got Jacks & you "know" your oppo has a lower pair why arent you raising him to either fold or make a bad call?

That sig is ages old, I am just not in to changing it everyday.. lol

What I am talking about is not makin " the right decicion" its more about you just get a feeling you are gona lose a had, you know you are miles ahead and yet you know that 4 hits the flop to give your opponent the set, then afterwards  you curse yourself for knowing it was going to happen and not listening to yourself.

Knowing your opponent has made a bad call is rarely any solace when you are riding the shortstack and on your way out of a tourney... or am i being naive?

[Newmanseye]

Have you never been playing and that "little Voice" inside tells you to play your cards / Muck your cards, only to do the opposite just to see the "little" voice was right?

No.

so you follow your gut flushy ?

[Wardonkey]

We all get gut feelings that we may not be able to explain, but they are usually based on information we have recieved and not processed completely rather than random predictions of future events.

Good post mate.

Now where does that come from and how come its right most of the time?

The feelings I was refering to having nothing to do with 'I know I'm going to be outdrawn' or 'my filth will hit this flop' more 'He has a big hand' or 'he is weak'. Often you can sense these things, when playing live, without being able to put it down to a tell or betting patterns.

Getting a feeling about a random event that is about to occur is completely different. I think that the human mind tends to recall the times your gut feelings were right more easily than the times they were wrong. Poker is not a guessing game.

Totalise, you are a naughty boy!

[bolt pp]

it all depends on how you have done with a certain hand the previous few times... if you have won your last three races with AK vs a smaller pair... you should be more likely to fold AK this time round because its "about time" that your AK lost.. you cant keep winning the flips.

Conversely if you have lost with AK the last few times, you should get into the pot asap as you are more likely to win

The same applies to flushdraws as well.

This can be closely correlated to optimum roulette theory, you see the experts all the time holding their 25p chips, studying the previous few spins, and if the last 3 or 4 have gone red, they will lump onto black, because the law of averages state that it is more likely to be black

Bear all this in mind, and you most certainly can become not only a professional poker player, but a professional roulette player as well

Ricky Gervais is shitting himself

[Newmanseye]

We all get gut feelings that we may not be able to explain, but they are usually based on information we have recieved and not processed completely rather than random predictions of future events.

Good post mate.

Now where does that come from and how come its right most of the time?

The feelings I was refering to having nothing to do with 'I know I'm going to be outdrawn' or 'my filth will hit this flop' more 'He has a big hand' or 'he is weak'. Often you can sense these things, when playing live, without being able to put it down to a tell or betting patterns.

Getting a feeling about a random event that is about to occur is completely different. I think that the human mind tends to recall the times your gut feelings were right more easily than the times they were wrong. Poker is not a guessing game.

Totalise, you are a naughty boy!

The feeling you get when someone is weak or when you are sure you can raise them off a hand is different.

Its just a question, and I am not claiming to see the future, be tuned in to the force or have xray vision, Maybe its the pessimist in me that "knows" i'm going to lose to a 2 outer, and the jammy sod that see's my bag of spanners make a boat on the flop.

I was just curious.

[Royal Flush]

Have you never been playing and that "little Voice" inside tells you to play your cards / Muck your cards, only to do the opposite just to see the "little" voice was right?

No.

so you follow your gut flushy ?

I follow my brain.

[totalise]

The feeling you get when someone is weak or when you are sure you can raise them off a hand is different.

yes, but that feeling can be logically reasoned. I think it was Wardonkey that alluded to the fact that snippets of info seep into your subconscious, which is often where the gut feeling comes from.

Maybe its the pessimist in me that "knows" i'm going to lose to a 2 outer, and the jammy sod that see's my bag of spanners make a boat on the flop.

I'd say that is likely the case.

[Wardonkey]

Billy, it just seems to me that your way of thinking is more in line with the hundreds of compulsive gamblers that I knew during my casino career, than a succesful poker player.

This was the point totalise was making, in his own sarcastic style, in his first post.

[Newmanseye]

Billy, it just seems to me that your way of thinking is more in line with the hundreds of compulsive gamblers that I knew during my casino career, than a succesful poker player.

This was the point totalise was making, in his own sarcastic style, in his first post.

I know that Totalise was taking the piss I'm not that daft ( yes its debateable)

Dont get me wrong, I have gone back to playing TA poker online, its working and i'm ticking over nicely, I just see situations where possibly the pessimistic voice is particularly vocal and seems to be right or the optimistic voice is quite loud and seems to be right.

Anyways just a thought cheers for the input.

[thetank]

Don't forget the earlier point of playing a hand more passive makes you more likely to get outdrawn. Self fulfilling prophecy and all that.

Leave the force up to these guys if you wanna beat online poker long term.....

[mikkyT]

I was going to post something about the force but Tankie beat me to it!

Then again, if you really do have use of "the force" then you should be using it to make people fold, not pessimistically folding yourself because the force tells you that you are beaten. Join the dark side.

[Newmanseye]

I did not mention "the Force"  and in my first post I did say I am not claiming to have esp or see the future.

Its just a passing thought i wanted opinions on

[mikkyT]

You didnt need to say "esp" or "the force". You are basically telling us that the little voice in your head can predict the future.

TBH I think there is much milage in the self forfilling prophesy though. You think your hand will be outdrawn so you play it differently, encouraging players to look for the outdraw that inevitably will come.

[Newmanseye]

You didnt need to say "esp" or "the force". You are basically telling us that the little voice in your head can predict the future.

TBH I think there is much milage in the self forfilling prophesy though. You think your hand will be outdrawn so you play it differently, encouraging players to look for the outdraw that inevitably will come.

I never said That I DID play the hand differently, I played the hads properly yet I did suffer the outdraw, how would I know otherwise?

If I get Jack's I'm raising and I'm trying to get the other guy to make that mistake, However when you get a gut feeling that you should have played the hand differently its a pisser when your gut is correct.