Making a mistake and face this decision.............

[M3boy]

You are mixing things up, you decide to limp UTG with 99

Its quite late on in a tourney, you have just under 20k, blinds 800 1600

Immediately to your left is a flat call. SB folds. BB checks

Flop 2 2 5.

BB checks

Now you need to find out if BB has a 2.

5400 in the pot, so you bet out 3200

Other limper immediately calls.

The BB folds.

Turn Card is an 8 - still rainbow.

So 11800 in the pot, the other limper has you covered, but not by much.

You now make a mistake and check - hoping to induce a bet , then re raise all in.

But the limper sets YOU all in.

Point 1) - Do you agree that a push when the 8 arrives is a better play?

Point 2) - Do you call the all in?

Point 3) - What do you think the likely holding of the other limper is.

(PS Geo The Sarge need not reply lol)

[I, Zimbra]

1. not necessarily, but I probably would have pushed

2. yes

3. could be anything, a bluff (AK, AQ) is also likely given the weakness you've shown here. Would not be surprised to see either 77 or 88, TT a possibility. 5-6? 5-4?. Higher pairs less so because few people limp in after a limper with higher pairs.

P.S. How come you're "mixing up" with 12.5 big blinds?

[M3boy]

I have been raising alot, and am trying to use "reverse" psychology in limping utg - ie AA hand.

ie, raising alot, and now a limp - should be seen as Strength

If that makes sense

Yes the check on the turn was to indicate weekness, but with a view to check raise.

Also I rule out AK / AQ as they would of raised preflop i think

[I, Zimbra]

I think it does, if you're deepstacked... but with 12.5 BBs I am always thinking about 'making a stand', how and when and with what two cards. The last thing I'd be thinking about is mixing stuff up, because I realistically have so few weapons at my disposal.

[M3boy]

I think it does, if you're deepstacked... but with 12.5 BBs I am always thinking about 'making a stand', how and when and with what two cards. The last thing I'd be thinking about is mixing stuff up, because I realistically have so few weapons at my disposal.

Yep good point.

[77dave]

Why have you dismissed AK or AQ

you said if he had either of these two hands he would of raised you up preflop  even though you were trying to show strength
therefore if you have dismissed AK/AQ for these reasons shouldnt you be also dismissing a pair bigger than yours

Also i would of bet at least the pot on the flop you have learnt no info on the other limpers hand
for me you have to push on the turn but after the check you should call  unless you get some monster tell from him that he has you beat

[M3boy]

Why have you dismissed AK or AQ

you said if he had either of these two hands he would of raised you up preflop  even though you were trying to show strength
therefore if you have dismissed AK/AQ for these reasons shouldnt you be also dismissing a pair bigger than yours

Also i would of bet at least the pot on the flop you have learnt no info on the other limpers hand
for me you have to push on the turn but after the check you should call  unless you get some monster tell from him that he has you beat

Cheers for that.

Exactly my thought process. Well 5 minutes AFTER the hand had finished!

I did not have him on AK AQ or an overpair.

I was confused as to what he would call on the flop and move all in on the turn with.  My thought process was 55 or 88 and he takes me for AA/KK and thinks I cannot lay it down. Or an A8 suited and thinks he is good (although I do not like the call on the flop with this hand).

This is my biggest weekness in my tourney play, I try to "analyse" too much - and by analyse I mean what hand I would have making his bets. One thing I am working on, but fell down on this occasion again.

Incidently I folded, after putting the clock on myself. More annoyed with not pushing the turn than folding tbh.

[I, Zimbra]

I would put a bluff waaaay ahead of 55 or 88, people seem far more keen to underbet those than blast them.

I put AQ or AK because I was thinking of an overcard bluff, it's difficult to come up with a hand that will call the flop, except sometimes a big ace might call there if they figure you'll bet with anything having started the action preflop.

[77dave]

who was the player?  

did he have you covered by much?  How many players left in comp?

how much did you expect him to bet for you to check raise him?

if he checks behind you and an over card comes on the turn what would you do?

questions i would be asking myself on the turn

[M3boy]

I know the player.

Had spotted him making week bluffs to pick up pots.

Has me covered by 5000 odd. 30 odd left from 170

Agreed, a check from him behind me would of been a nitemare if an overcard comes.

I asked myself those same questions as soon as he went all in on the turn - too late by then

Have already agreed that I should push on the turn.

[Royal Flush]

I have been raising alot, and am trying to use "reverse" psychology in limping utg - ie AA hand.

ie, raising alot, and now a limp - should be seen as Strength

I like the idea but 99 is a big hand in its own right, if you are going to make the play then do it with a 78 type hand.

[boldie]

I'd have to call here. Your show of weakness on the turn means he could have any two cards. You already have plenty invested in the pot and your overpair might still be good..(in fact you think it is as you were looking to checkraise knowing he'd never take you for a 2's from under the gun).

[AlexMartin]

Not even lying to you, we discussed this hand for about 2 hours over dinner @ BB4. No-one gave me a sound answer.
This is where you need to know your player. Ill give you an analysis from 2 perspectives. In one he's top drawer, in the second hes average/poor .
Geo, no offence meant here mate, i love your play v a rock


1)
OK, lets say he's a strong player. UTG strong player limps. Medium stack and he probably has premium, M3 prolly mucks 99 utg here most of the time. 1010+/AK would be normal range. You put him on a big hand, so you dont get involved with shite as he only has 12.5 BB, ie not enough impied to warrant an A2, 2X type hand. Pocket pairs have value here, as there is less likelihood of a raise rtb due to UTG Rock limper, so the limp is all you have to invest. Medium to low pp's 1010- is what i have a strong player on here, in addition to AK/AQ.

Flop come 225. Rock leads out into a 3-WAY pot after the BB has checked. HE calls. He simply must have a hand here, i doubt he is capable of strong representation bluffs, theres about 5 ppl in that cardroom capable of setting up that move. He doesnt think you are continuation betting into 2 others on that type of board so he has to have you beat. 

2) Weak player. He limps behind a UTG limper. He could have anything. He calls your flop bet on the flop. WTF CAN HE HAVE? A5, A2, 55,22?
You check the 8 turn and he moves all-in. He DOESNT SHOVE WITH A MADE FH OR TRIPS HERE. You have to call here from a strong=weak perspective and the hands ur beating outnumber the hands ur losing against. Got to use some banter and bollocks to find out if he has you beaten. A5 looks likely for a call on the flop, along with 66+77.


FINAL POINT. Field is massive, ur gonna have to risk a lot and you wanna win this pot here. IF you set up the check raise i reckon you have to call here too.
But it took a lot of talk for my opinion to be swayed, originally i thought is was an tough pass. Flat call on the flop means you can rule out A8.

[Smart Money]

Have already agreed that I should push on the turn.

I'm mainly a cash player, but I can't understand this logic.

If you push the turn, I can't see any of the hands you're beating folding. Likewise AK/AQ hands won't be calling you.

Whereas by check/calling his all-in, you're still losing to any hands that are ahead of you of course, but you also put yourself in a favourable position over hands that are trailing your 99, including a bluff attempt.

Or do you think that by jamming, TT/JJ may fold?

[M3boy]

OK, from a tourney prospective.

There are so so many danger cards if he checks behind you.

Also, in a tourney I think it is best to put the other player to a decision for their tournament, rather than being faced with calling all your stack with a moderate hand.

Alex, nice post. Yes we did discuss this hand at length, I can remember you know lol