Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[tikay]

We were discussing a bet on Fred about two fat blokes throwing pointy things at a circle hung on a wall. They call it Prermier League Darts, & we discovered a method where we could not lose.

This was my summing-up.


Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649



In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

[RED-DOG]

The world really has gone mad.

[redarmi]

So you don't do art but fashion is OK? That's a fine line to walk Mr K.

Incidentally, you may wonder, from time to time, what degenerate topics get discussed on Fred.

This post was made on Sunday, by a regular Freddie. It is a "Bet Recommend".

I kid you not. Can you believe that, the depths of depravity some blondes will go to to try and win a fiver?

You don't know what you are missing.

FYP

[Tal]

He is one or the few people who are known by a single name. How much would Karl.com have cost?

Few?  Even low scoring football players from lowly teams like Spurs are known by single names.  Think we'd all know who Suarez, Gerrard and Rooney are too.  Adele, Beyoncé, Bono, dare say most would even know who Sinitta was. I'd happily put Sinitta up vs Lagerfield.

Most of the people on that list aren't known by their real first name. Also, worldwide, Lagerfeld crushes Sinitta.

[arbboy]

.

[tikay]

.

Now I shall forever be intrigued as to what that was going to be......

Psychologically, that's a proper head mashing job.

[celtic]

.

Now I shall forever be intrigued as to what that was going to be......

Psychologically, that's a proper head mashing job.

He's gone from posting the same thing a hundred times to posting nothing once

I saw it, was a post about dogs at belle vue, that belonged on TFT. It's been replicated there.

[tikay]

.

Now I shall forever be intrigued as to what that was going to be......

Psychologically, that's a proper head mashing job.

He's gone from posting the same thing a hundred times to posting nothing once

I saw it, was a post about dogs at belle vue, that belonged on TFT. It's been replicated there.

You Policing my Diary? Chompy does the very same thing, reads every word.

Tom is sneaky though, he logs out THEN reads it. Then tries to do better on Diary Moribund.

[celtic]

.

Now I shall forever be intrigued as to what that was going to be......

Psychologically, that's a proper head mashing job.

He's gone from posting the same thing a hundred times to posting nothing once

I saw it, was a post about dogs at belle vue, that belonged on TFT. It's been replicated there.

You Policing my Diary? Chompy does the very same thing, reads every word.

Tom is sneaky though, he logs out THEN reads it. Then tries to do better on Diary Moribund.

I never miss a post on here me. Though I seem to have missed the conclusion of your tourney report 😀

[Chompy]

Yuh, where are chapter 6-15 of the tournament report? Was enjoying that.

[Gamblor21]

We were discussing a bet on Fred about two fat blokes throwing pointy things at a circle hung on a wall. They call it Prermier League Darts, & we discovered a method where we could not lose.

This was my summing-up.


Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649



In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

I've just compared against our model and you(or whoever you stole the quote from isn't far off). You'd rarely get exactly the same hold %'s which is a factor, along with momentum. The ad break in Premier League darts used to be a big momentum killer, though it doesn't exist anymore so the players struggle to buck the trend now. We actually feel like the draw price is far too big in the market, just doesn't seem to be mathematically correct. However in a world where majority just copy the prices it doesn't look to change, so the draw is often a smidge of value on a Thursday.

Well worked out Tikay!

[tikay]

We were discussing a bet on Fred about two fat blokes throwing pointy things at a circle hung on a wall. They call it Prermier League Darts, & we discovered a method where we could not lose.

This was my summing-up.


Darts - probability of a draw in a 12 leg game.

I think that the probability of a draw in an even match (i.e. one where both players have the same probability of holding their own throw) is:

=(POWER(ProbWin;12)+36*POWER(ProbWin;10)*POWER((1-ProbWin);2)+225*POWER(ProbWin;8 )*POWER((1-ProbWin);4)+400*POWER(ProbWin;6)*POWER((1-ProbWin);6)+225*POWER(ProbWin;4)*POWER((1-ProbWin);8 )+36*POWER(ProbWin;2)*POWER((1-ProbWin);10)+POWER((1-ProbWin);12))

(in spreadsheet formula speak) where ProbWin is the probability of a player holding his own throw.

This gives the following figures:

Prob Holding Throw              Prob Drawn Match
0.5                                         0.2256
0.55                                       0.2268
0.6                                         0.2307
0.65                                       0.2376
0.7                                         0.2484
0.75                                       0.2649



In any case, as discussed above, it assumes that the probability of holding your throw in a leg is independent of the current scoreline which seems unlikely.

I've just compared against our model and you(or whoever you stole the quote from isn't far off). You'd rarely get exactly the same hold %'s which is a factor, along with momentum. The ad break in Premier League darts used to be a big momentum killer, though it doesn't exist anymore so the players struggle to buck the trend now. We actually feel like the draw price is far too big in the market, just doesn't seem to be mathematically correct. However in a world where majority just copy the prices it doesn't look to change, so the draw is often a smidge of value on a Thursday.

Well worked out Tikay!

Thanks Bradders. Hope you are not suggesting I stole that.

Mere maths, my friend.

[RED-DOG]

Channel 549 now. The Elephant Who Loved Too Much.

[tikay]

Channel 549 now. The Elephant Who Loved Too Much.

Aisha and Daphne!

Thanks Tom, am recording it, too tired to enjoy it tonight, but I'll save it for a treat later in the week.

Love elephants (and hippos). I would marry one if I had not pledged myself to Louise Fletcher, or signalled to Vicki Coren that I'd be receptive to her.

[RED-DOG]

Channel 549 now. The Elephant Who Loved Too Much.

Aisha and Daphne!

Thanks Tom, am recording it, too tired to enjoy it tonight, but I'll save it for a treat later in the week.

Love elephants (and hippos). I would marry one if I had not pledged myself to Louise Fletcher, or signalled to Vicki Coren that I'd be receptive to her.

Cradle snatcher.