Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[byronkincaid]

I am a pure tournament player and I have never been a fan of placing emphasis on the mathematics of a particular situation. In cash you can rightly say that all things being equal...abiding by the maths will render you a longterm winner...because the short term luck factor will even itself out and in the long run the maths will prevail.

But in cash it is much easier to use the expressions all things being equal and long term etc because there is no URGENCY.

In tournaments the additional factor of the clock means that things can never be equal. Things are always changing and as a player you need to be alive to the changes and act accordingly. As far as I am concerned there is no longterm in tournament poker because you will never be faced with each thoroughly unique situation again. It is here and then it is gone. I would much rather make a longterm losing play that wins me a tournament today than a longterm winning one that knocks me out but may win me a tournament tomorrow. Money today is much better than the potential of money tomorrow.

In tournaments it is all about assessing unique situations and taking the appropriate action. To focus on maths is to focus on the cards you hold. But more relevant than cards are factors such as time pressures, relation of your stack size to the average stack/chip leader, opponents, and your table image. If you are becoming uncompetitive then the more marginal gambles you will be forced to take on or you simply wont survive. So stepping outside the maths for a hand and doubling up could really have a dramatic impact on your tournament...you could go on to win it!

So although you can work out the odds for that one particular hand, how on earth do you factor into the equation the massive future effect that gamble has on your tournament as a whole? It's impossible. Calling for your flush and hitting, even though the maths were wrong, means you can now afford to call that raise with suited connectors and hey presto you hit the straight. So you create a snowball rolling down the mountain and your tournament now has the forward impetus it lacked a moment ago. Some days you hit draws and you go on a rush of cards but some days you couldn't hit a cows arse with a banjo. This is not mathematical. You absolutely need luck to win a tournament and "feeling" when the time is right, ALL factors considered, to try and create that snowball is what tournament success is all about.

i am now 99% certain that you are UKpoker's Blonde troll account.

[byronkincaid]

When you are short stack and the blinds are getting big, you are happy to get your chips in on the flop with a flush draw. If you are only getting evens, in theory you are not getting the right price to call, but it's still the right move.

can you give an example please

[RichEO]

When you are short stack and the blinds are getting big, you are happy to get your chips in on the flop with a flush draw. If you are only getting evens, in theory you are not getting the right price to call, but it's still the right move.

can you give an example please

Surely you can never be gettin evens on the flop? You are always slightly better cause the blinds are in there and better off again from watever pre flop betting there was, which is usually significant when short stacked.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: byronkincaid

can you give an example please

Why not give an example of how you think?

[77dave]

Nearly 48 hours on and im still on tilt from friday night

After Tikay's early exit we had a chat about the quality of the lstandard in the line up of the dealers choice game. I even had one player say to me STUD!! whats that?  So long story short Tikay and I decided after 5 mins of the game that i would have to take 1st 2nd and 3rd prizes in the comp to match the amount Tikay was about to potenially win.

I was chipped up all the way through the comp and as tables got broke my new seat was always in view of Tikay's ever increasing stack. Tikay comes over time after time to retell tales of flopping the nuts or rivering flushes and houses. As we make the final he picks up the payout structure and tells me well i have 1st place covered and im well on the way to winning 2nd place money as well.

So we do a deal 4 handed and i get to chop the comp for the 2nd friday night running. Its a very good comp getting between 70-80 runners.

1 Thing i think Tikay hasnt looked at about his game is the fact that people dont mind losing money to him. His manner at the table makes the game jovial and when people are enjoying themselves that pay you off more as they dont mind giving you action. I know a big game in London that 3 sharks play in 1 shark befriends all and is very happy-go-lucky he gets all the action he craves the other 2 sit there quiet waiting to trap. As soon as they enter pots all the fishes swim away.

So as M3boy was saying im a believer in Karma in poker and the positive karma that is created by tikay is a big part of how he gets paid off im cash and how he goes so deep in so many comps. Ok thats enough butt kissing for today ill see you all for the £100 f/o tonight and maybe the cash after

[77dave]

During the comp we were having a football trivia session to help pass the time

I ask the question which of the 92 league clubs doesnt exist as a place      answer is port vale

Dingdell is on the table   straight away she says Milton Keynes

i explain  the question to her and she says oh i misunderstood i thought it was them cos they are the Dons and they used to be from Southampton


She alwso thinks David Hasslehoff's nickname is the Hass not the Hoff

sorry Tracy i couldnt resist   im sure no1 noticed

[byronkincaid]

Posted by: byronkincaid

can you give an example please

Why not give an example of how you think?

OK Mark here are some examples of how I think.

I think that High Contrast's remix of Axwell's I Believe is pretty awesome.

I think that in general people should eat less starch (potatoes, bread, pasta etc) and eat more vegetables instead.

I think that cow's milk is great for calves but possibly not so great for humans.

HTH

 

BTW how did you manage to get The Hendon Mob to put your book up on their site?

[totalise]

In tournaments it is all about assessing unique situations and taking the appropriate action. To focus on maths is to focus on the cards you hold. But more relevant than cards are factors such as time pressures, relation of your stack size to the average stack/chip leader, opponents, and your table image. If you are becoming uncompetitive then the more marginal gambles you will be forced to take on or you simply wont survive. So stepping outside the maths for a hand and doubling up could really have a dramatic impact on your tournament...you could go on to win it!

to focus on the math is to make an accurate aprraisal of the situation, and then apply mathematical concepts to try and figure out the best way to play a situation. To use "feel" is to make an appraisal of the situation, and guess what the best course of action is. Its not like math guys just ignore things like reads, opponent playing styles, bet sizes, and stuff like that!! and to make comments like "To focus on maths is to focus on the cards you hold" just means you dont know the right math in poker.

 Stepping outside the "math" and hoping to get lucky and then hoping to get lucky and lucky again and again is similar to shovelin your £25 chip on red and letting the wheel spin 5 times, hey, sometimes you could go on to win £800!

Also if you find you need to take marginal gambles just to survive, then thats usually a leak with your game earlier on in the tournament, so instead of playing bingo later on and hoping to get lucky, plugging your leaks in the earlier levels will reap much better rewards.

[M3boy]

 

[Jon MW]

I read somewhere that every Capital City on Earth sits on a big river, & all major Cities do, too. Which explains why Birmingham is pants.

Hello, you never go in Athens or Roma? Tiber is a little water and is not any in Athens.

Rome = Pants

Athens = Double Pants.

The Tiber used to be a big river.

Athens is just Double Pants

[Dingdell]

During the comp we were having a football trivia session to help pass the time

I ask the question which of the 92 league clubs doesnt exist as a place      answer is port vale

Dingdell is on the table   straight away she says Milton Keynes

i explain  the question to her and she says oh i misunderstood i thought it was them cos they are the Dons and they used to be from Southampton


She alwso thinks David Hasslehoff's nickname is the Hass not the Hoff

sorry Tracy i couldnt resist   im sure no1 noticed

Thanks so much for that - it just goes to prove there is more to life than football and pop stars. 

[77dave]

During the comp we were having a football trivia session to help pass the time

I ask the question which of the 92 league clubs doesnt exist as a place      answer is port vale

Dingdell is on the table   straight away she says Milton Keynes

i explain  the question to her and she says oh i misunderstood i thought it was them cos they are the Dons and they used to be from Southampton


She alwso thinks David Hasslehoff's nickname is the Hass not the Hoff

sorry Tracy i couldnt resist   im sure no1 noticed

Thanks so much for that - it just goes to prove there is more to life than football and pop stars. 

POP STAR???

[MANTIS01]

Some interesting thoughts byron.

Ok so let's clarify the maths.

To think mathematically is indeed to hold the opinion....

to focus on the math is to make an accurate appraisal of the situation, and then apply mathematical concepts to try and figure out the best way to play a situation.

But essentially the basis of this thought process is...Example - "Do I have the correct odds to draw to my flush?"

The mathematical equation for making this decision is simply deciphering how many outs you have and whether the probability of hitting one of those cards is compensated for by the odds the pot is offering. To be aware of the figures (but to choose not to allow them to entirely dominate your thoughts) and simple ignorance of them are two different things altogether. To suggest otherwise is being silly. The problem is that a mathematical equation is not situational or contextual it is a constant. So once you understand that tournament play is purely situational you will begin to appreciate that trying to fit a constant into every contextual decision is actually quite restrictive.

To produce an equation based on pure probability is too simplistic for tournament play. This is so because the maths doesn't take into account so many of the factors that need to be considered before making a decision as to the best way to play in a particular situation.

Time, stack-size in relation to the blinds/average/leader, opponent's behaviour/actions, position to the money, current table image/future table image, situation etc...are all variable factors nowhere to be seen in the ever constant probability equation. So I think being driven by the maths is more "guessing" at what to do because you are only taking one factor into account. To be aware of the maths and to also take every other detail into account is a far more comprehensive way of coming to a sound decision. Maths is not flexible...but you need flexibility of thought when you play a tournament. Making a decision at any point has many implications...those implications are not just about whether you answered the sum correctly or not here and now.

Getting lucky is another factor that has no place in this equation. But the fact is you do need to get lucky to win a tournament. This does not mean you see the sense in relying on luck again and again and again but that you simply recognise luck is a factor. Again, recognising something and being driven by it are different. To suggest otherwise is being silly.

If you play a solid game, then you recognise a situation to step to outside the maths and your position improves dramatically you are actually playing creatively. And creativity is essential to tournament progress. Focussing on maths can stifle your creativity because of it's inflexibility and you may miss situations you can exploit.

I think having a mathematically dominated strategy you become a bit one dimensional and this can make your mind inflexible to considering the more creative thoughts that can often be necessary if not wholly desirable in any given tournament situation.

[hans47]

POP STAR???
[/quote]
 
The hoff is a major star in germany not saying much for there taste in music!
And how did you cash on another friday did everyone call you blind?

[77dave]

POP STAR???

The hoff is a major star in germany not saying much for there taste in music!
And how did you cash on another friday did everyone call you blind?
[/quote]

i kept having players move all in with QQ against my AK   lol
the 2 biggest pots i won of the night were with 2 4 suited and 2 8 off