Vegas & The Aftermath - Diary

[tikay]

maths says call but management of bankroll is alot difference to the maths

No it's not...really honestly it isn't.

Management of bankroll states that you HAVE TO make the call. You made the bankroll desicion when you sat down in the game and paid 300£ to play it. You manage the bankroll in the long term and the best way to manage your bankroll is to make the right poker desicion at the right time.

TK could afford to play the 300£ game (I assume so anyways) that was the only desicion he really had to make with regards to whether his bankroll could take it. What you have to do to manage the bankroll properly is to make the +EV play and that would be to get your chips in the middle here.

could you have lost the hand?..yes BUT it 's more likely that you would have won the hand. This desicion therefore is more likely to have cost you money than made you money..and at the end of the day..that's bad bankroll management.


This discussion is starting to do my head in..I understand the fold but it should be quite clear that it was the wrong thing to do for everybody (and that includes TK) unless they were playing with their very last money..and if he was he shouldn't have been playing it anyways.

"......yes BUT it 's more likely that you would have won the hand....."

How do you know that? All things being equal (let's ignore me dominating a smaller ace, or running into AA or KK) I'm AT BEST slightly less than 50-50, in probability. So how is it known to anyone - even me, who was there, that I was more likely to win? Whatever the rights & wrongs of the play, the assumption HAS to be I'm racing - & so slightly less than 50-50.

Let's be totally honest here. Anyone who has seen my game can tell, right away, I'm not a great player, far from it. I'm "tight-weak-wimp-passive", with no gears, crap at moves, a donkey at bluffing. These are all facts, & anyone who has played me knows it. I know it, too. But I think my way to surviving in a game that I want to stay in, because I love it, mixing with gamblers is my dream. Whilst conceding that I'm a much worse player than most, I actually believe (to myself, as I'm entitled to, even if mistaken), that I am at least as bright as most, & can get results above my station by out-thinking others tactically & strategically, & by being more patient than the hairy-scary merchants who go for the win every time. I have survived in the game not by being an above-average player - I'm a way below average "player" - but by thinking smart.

I play way above my station in poker, I know that. But I want to continue to do that. So I am happy to pass up these +EV situations now & then in return for some locked up cash. How else do you think I have survived, when most play the game (technically, but not Bankrolly) better than me? Remember, a lot of better players than me - FAR better players, who know all the + & - EV's - have long since gone skint.......

Technically, it was almost certainly wrong, I concede. For me, it was right.

Loving the debate, by the way. Gotta go shortly, there is a £50 + £50 + £50 at Luton, & a minor Cash there - say £300 or £400 - will make me a happy bunny for the third tourney in a row......

[bobby1]

maths says call but management of bankroll is alot difference to the maths

No it's not...really honestly it isn't.

Management of bankroll states that you HAVE TO make the call. You made the bankroll desicion when you sat down in the game and paid 300£ to play it. You manage the bankroll in the long term and the best way to manage your bankroll is to make the right poker desicion at the right time.

TK could afford to play the 300£ game (I assume so anyways) that was the only desicion he really had to make with regards to whether his bankroll could take it. What you have to do to manage the bankroll properly is to make the +EV play and that would be to get your chips in the middle here.

could you have lost the hand?..yes BUT it 's more likely that you would have won the hand. This desicion therefore is more likely to have cost you money than made you money..and at the end of the day..that's bad bankroll management.


This discussion is starting to do my head in..I understand the fold but it should be quite clear that it was the wrong thing to do for everybody (and that includes TK) unless they were playing with their very last money..and if he was he shouldn't have been playing it anyways.

you make some good points Boldie but the decision is now do you wanna risk £1200 to win another £2100, so you have to decide if you found a potentially good 7/4 shot would you have £1200 on it if that was the ony bet you were allowed to have?

and the AK could easily be odds on to lose to a pair, and at best about 11/4 to beat a hand like AQ or AJ and of course a huge dog against AA and KK.

So in a normal tourney you would fold AK here if there was a payout difference that meant you would risk 1200 to win 2100?

it would depend on how many higher figures were available, if it was down to the last 2 and the next prize was all I could win then Im pushing, if this is the diff between say 6th and 5th and first prize is 20k then im giving it a lot of thought.

[Dingdell]

b) I had not actually considered the players to act behind me. I tend to make a snap, instant, decision, then try & find justification for it. I was almost certain to Pass that AK the moment I saw it. (After the Raise in front of me). I then tried to justify it to myself, but my gut feel was screaming PASS, because of the impending Chip Count

imho that's all you need. Trust your instincts.

It was the right call for you and I don't think you can analyse it if instincts are involved.  

[77dave]

would you call if you had JJ, QQ or KK instead of the AK?

[tikay]

maths says call but management of bankroll is alot difference to the maths

No it's not...really honestly it isn't.

Management of bankroll states that you HAVE TO make the call. You made the bankroll desicion when you sat down in the game and paid 300£ to play it. You manage the bankroll in the long term and the best way to manage your bankroll is to make the right poker desicion at the right time.

TK could afford to play the 300£ game (I assume so anyways) that was the only desicion he really had to make with regards to whether his bankroll could take it. What you have to do to manage the bankroll properly is to make the +EV play and that would be to get your chips in the middle here.

could you have lost the hand?..yes BUT it 's more likely that you would have won the hand. This desicion therefore is more likely to have cost you money than made you money..and at the end of the day..that's bad bankroll management.


This discussion is starting to do my head in..I understand the fold but it should be quite clear that it was the wrong thing to do for everybody (and that includes TK) unless they were playing with their very last money..and if he was he shouldn't have been playing it anyways.

you make some good points Boldie but the decision is now do you wanna risk £1200 to win another £2100, so you have to decide if you found a potentially good 7/4 shot would you have £1200 on it if that was the ony bet you were allowed to have?

and the AK could easily be odds on to lose to a pair, and at best about 11/4 to beat a hand like AQ or AJ and of course a huge dog against AA and KK.

So in a normal tourney you would fold AK here if there was a payout difference that meant you would risk 1200 to win 2100?

If it were a normal Final, this would be my thought process. (Blinds were 3k 6k, I had 40k, Average was 70k, 8 left, Payout Structure very top-heavy).

Unopened Pot. Push the lot in, 100% of the time. That's my way of playing AK in late stages - because I can get others to Pass better hands, because my chips were in first.

A 20k Raise in front of me. Not so clear-cut, as he has no or little fold equity.But in most cases - but not every time, & dependant upon payout structure, I Push anyway. It would also depend on what I sense may happen behind me, how many shorties there are, how well I'm running (Bankroll-wise), lots of things really. But mostly, yes, let's gamble. But I ALWAYS prefer to get my money in first with AK, (or where Matey Boy has Fold Equity) that's half the value (almost literally) of the hand.

But this was not a normal Final, & I found the complexities & oddities quite awkward to be honest.

[tikay]

would you call if you had JJ, QQ or KK instead of the AK?

It was never a call, he had 80k, & bet 20k, I had 40k, it was all-in or Fold.

I would have Pushed with AA & KK for sure. I'm not sure what I've had done with QQ - probably Passed, & I'd have Folded Jacks.

[Singheee]

Tikay i think i would have pushed with AK especially after who went all as he is super aggresive. By the way i was on the final table with u the 1 with the beard loll

[snoopy1239]

Tikay i think i would have pushed with AK especially after who went all as he is super aggresive. By the way i was on the final table with u the 1 with the beard loll

If he is super aggressive, and you can afford to comfortably stump up the £300 buy-in, then this is a no brainer for me. 

[tikay]

Tikay i think i would have pushed with AK especially after who went all as he is super aggresive. By the way i was on the final table with u the 1 with the beard loll

If you were the Sikh Gent to my left in the Semi-Final, well done Sir, I thought you played just terrific. Your handling of the horrible abuse & vitriolic speech play from the guy in the dtd shirt was a delight to watch & hear, & you caused him to tilt off a giant stack!

As to the AK, well, I wish I'd known he was super-aggressive - but then again, maybe I'm glad I did not. I had never seen him before, but he "looked" (daft, I know) like he might be a rock, (he wore a cardigan, always a good "tell".....) & that is my Default Setting for folks who I've neen seen play a single hand.

I thoroughly enjoyed your Company last night, & much admired your game, especially that delicious 5-4 Bluff against Mr Snotty.

[tikay]

Tikay i think i would have pushed with AK especially after who went all as he is super aggresive. By the way i was on the final table with u the 1 with the beard loll

If he is super aggressive, and you can afford to comfortably stump up the £300 buy-in, then this is a no brainer for me. 

But I never knew he was super-aggressive - I'd never seen him before, & we'd not shared a Table until the Final. Then he comes out Betting UTG, & I noted he was wearing a pullover, & that gave it away really. A no-brainer. Pass. Have you ever seen a Val Donican look-alike make a move? I rest my case.

[Colchester Kev]

Simple, do a Red Dog and just ask yourself   "What would Mickey Wernick do"


I pass and lock up the extra cash by the way.

[TightEnd]

Off to dig out my tank top and yellow cardigan for tonight...........

[Singheee]

You probably did the right thing lol because if i thought he was weak he probably had kings or aces!!. Well played yesterday Tikay, u seemed 2 be a bit shocked that u was going in with best hand and it was actually holding up lol

[Longy]

Tikay its a BAD pass end of.

This is an ICM situation and you should be playing poker to maximise your EV in tournaments, bankroll management is a seperate issue imo which i will move onto later.

Ok you win £4000 if you win the hand and £760 if you lose, these of course approximation as future events effect these figures as does someone calling behind, the latter in my experience in this situation has a negligble effect on your EV. As do future events in a crapshoot limited time situation.

If we fold we end up with 2k, so if we call in the long term we need to make more than 2k.

Break even point here is x by £760 + y by 4000. Where x is the amount of time you lose the hand and y the amount you win (in fractions) . x+y=1

760x + 4000y= 2000
x + y           =1

Solve the similtaneous eqaution. y turns out to be about 38% and x 62%. So as long as we are 38% or better against opponents range we have to call.

  35,958,384  games     0.005 secs     7,191,676,800  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    38.824%     18.14%    20.68%           6524615      7436014.00   { AcKd }
Hand 1:    61.176%     40.50%    20.68%          14561741      7436014.00   { QQ+, AKs, AKo }

Surely just about every players range is bigger than ak,qq+ here. This mistake bigger mathematicallly than pushing all in blind first hand and getting called by aces and im sure you are not going to do that tikay.


As for bankroll management if you are going to make decisions like this cos you are scared or feel that not having an extra 4 buyins in your roll will make a massive difference to your ability to playing the circuit, you are underolled massively.

This is not the case here me thinks and its just a mistake in my opinion.

FWIW Tikay I admire your dedication to keeping yourself rolled for these games and are a great example to a whole bunch of players, of how bankroll management is important in poker. I don't buy this im a donk rubbish either, you don't make a profit year on year playing the live circuit without some game. Hope my post doesn't sound too harsh.

[TightEnd]

How do I solve Simultaneous equations when playing live up to the point where someone calls clock and I have a minute to decide?!?!

Nice analysis though!