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Poker Hand Analysis
Hand of the Week: 6th August
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Topic: Hand of the Week: 6th August (Read 4842 times)
NoflopsHomer
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #15 on:
August 06, 2007, 11:24:05 PM »
1) I think here against a standard player, you can call, you have position and you can make the most of it. Against a player who will c-bet practically ALL the time, you can't just call even with position as he'll blow you away with bets if he smells weakness and you'll have to flop big to prevent this happening. I don't mind calling here with big hands on occasion, as long as we mix up with big and small hands. Re-raising is the best option since it takes away UTG's c-bet opportunity much of time and establishes you as the chief aggressor. Calling is ok against a weaker-tighter player when you have position, but here I think it's -ev against UTG. Folding is fine, if you don't think you're as good a player as UTG.
2) I think the BB is on a draw, he leads out for $50 into a $277 pot? The surprise is that UTG has 'just' called, which means he must be either very strong or very weak.
3) If we assume that the BB won't fold a draw, and the UTG is happy to just call here despite the re-raise by us preflop, I think calling here is the best option and see what happens on the turn. Worst case scenario is that we raise to something like $400, BB calls, and then UTG shoves all-in and we're not looking healthy.
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byronkincaid
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #16 on:
August 06, 2007, 11:30:00 PM »
Quote
Against a player who will c-bet practically ALL the time, you can't just call even with position as he'll blow you away with bets if he smells weakness and you'll have to flop big to prevent this happening
if someone c-bets 100% call with any 2 and raise flop
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madasahatstand
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Bang
Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #17 on:
August 07, 2007, 06:44:23 PM »
Quote from: NoflopsHomer on August 06, 2007, 11:24:05 PM
1) I think here against a standard player, you can call, you have position and you can make the most of it. Against a player who will c-bet practically ALL the time, you can't just call even with position as he'll blow you away with bets if he smells weakness and you'll have to flop big to prevent this happening. I don't mind calling here with big hands on occasion, as long as we mix up with big and small hands. Re-raising is the best option since it takes away UTG's c-bet opportunity much of time and establishes you as the chief aggressor. Calling is ok against a weaker-tighter player when you have position, but here I think it's -ev against UTG. Folding is fine, if you don't think you're as good a player as UTG.
2) I think the BB is on a draw, he leads out for $50 into a $277 pot? The surprise is that UTG has 'just' called, which means he must be either very strong or very weak.
3) If we assume that the BB won't fold a draw, and the UTG is happy to just call here despite the re-raise by us preflop, I think calling here is the best option and see what happens on the turn. Worst case scenario is that we raise to something like $400, BB calls, and then UTG shoves all-in and we're not looking healthy.
I like this theory and its very well explained. Cant wait to see what he did:) But need to wait til tomorrow!!
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totalise
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #18 on:
August 07, 2007, 08:31:58 PM »
interesting comments, fwiw heres mine:
1) What do you do here, the options are fold/call or re-raise. What are the reasons for your action and why in your opinion is your action better then any of the other options?
I'd defo 3bet, the guys opening range is very wide, sometimes you take it down preflop, and when they call, you get to play in position. Defending your button is quite important because when you are playing against people that play position very well, you have to give it back and play in position aginst them otherwise you are going to have a hard time beating the table. If you had been calling more preflop, then calling would be perfectly fine, and its not even a bad play here, you just give up control, and the pot is smaller, but you still have position. I like to play bigger pots in position then OOP, so i'm 3betting here wide. Also you should take into consideration that you have been 3betting loose, so just calling here kinda tips off the strength of your hand, given that its unlikely you are just calling with a big hand, so it increases the liklihood of you getting blasted off postflop, and IMO decreases the range of flops you can represent post flop, relative to if you had 3bet.
2) What are you thinking after this preflop action? What do you suspect their calls signify based on the information/reads you have at the moment?
frankly not too much, BB is a bit of a calling station so he could have any pair, any suited connectors, any marginal Ace/QK/10J, pretty much any hand that looks reasonably pretty. UTG i think would likely put in another raise postflop with AA and KK, maybe QQ, maybe not, but apart from those hands, any hand he has opened with (which is a wide range) he is likely to be calling with... and its still possible he could have AA/KK, but its less likely then say 77, even though the combinations are the same.
3) What opinions are you formulating about the different ranges each player might hold at the moment? What are the pros and cons of each action, given reads, stack size and action on the flop? And ultimately, what would you do? and why?
BB donk bets small, so again theres not too much info to go on, it could be middle pair, a raggedy draw, top pair, a pp lower then top pair but higher then second pair. UTG is slightly more interesting, when he just calls the $50 bet, he could be running a play on you, given that he should expect you to raise the donk lead and the weak call, but at the same time he might have nothing and just be drawing cheap... raising here could feasibly get a call from worse from BB and a fold from better by UTG (88--1010) so it can protect your hand and be a raise for value, but its building a pot with a weakish hand where you could spike something on the turn cheap. The main problem with just calling is that you are kinda tipping off the strength of your hand, and the "just" call by you is definately much weaker in relative terms then the "just" call by him. It does let you see what happens on the turn though, and if you do spike a card that improves your hand, it wont be easy to read, so theres pros and cons for both.
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tikay
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #19 on:
August 07, 2007, 09:05:23 PM »
This is fascinating for a poor & inexpoerienced Cash player like myself. Keep it coming please.
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totalise
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #20 on:
August 08, 2007, 11:54:27 AM »
Part 2
Action, you called
Turn,
, so the board is
(pot $427)
BB leads for $200, and UTG calls, action is on you:
4) How has your estimation of their ranges changed given the turn action? What would you do here? And why?
Action: you decide to call
River comes down the
, so the board is
(pot $1027)
BB bets $300, UTG just calls again, after running his clock down
5) Now what are you thinking about their relevant ranges? What kind of hands do you figure either of the players to be holding, putting pre/flop/turn/river action together?
6) What do you think UTG running his clock down signifies?
7) Do you call/fold or raise here? and if you raise, how much?
Conclusion to come on Friday.
«
Last Edit: August 08, 2007, 11:56:05 AM by totalise
»
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byronkincaid
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #21 on:
August 08, 2007, 10:00:06 PM »
4) How has your estimation of their ranges changed given the turn action? What would you do here? And why?
they both must have something to still be in this hand, we have pot odds to call to catch a flush, I call
5) Now what are you thinking about their relevant ranges? What kind of hands do you figure either of the players to be holding, putting pre/flop/turn/river action together?
Maybe BB is rope a doping us with a monster, could UTG have a hand like JJ or TT?
6) What do you think UTG running his clock down signifies?
He's 12 tabling/watching porn/eating dinner or maybe he has the nut flush and is trying to work out if he should raise or not.
7) Do you call/fold or raise here? and if you raise, how much?
I call
«
Last Edit: August 09, 2007, 11:06:33 AM by byronkincaid
»
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snoopy1239
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #22 on:
August 09, 2007, 02:04:17 AM »
1) What do you do here, the options are fold/call or re-raise. What are the reasons for your action and why in your opinion is your action better then any of the other options?
I'd probably call here and try to catch a flop. Being a solid player, he most likely has a strong hand, so you may be given an opportunity to take his whole stack.
A re-raise is also feasible here. You may take it off him pre-flop, and if you don't, you have a disguised hand and will be in position.
2) What are you thinking after this preflop action? What do you suspect their calls signify based on the information/reads you have at the moment?
Sounds like pocket pairs, say Eights or something. The Big Blind's calling a re-raise, but judging by the description, there are a number of hands he could have.
It's hard to put the initial raiser on a strong hand as he only flat-called rather than removing the threat of the player in the big blind with another raise.
3) What opinions are you formulating about the different ranges each player might hold at the moment? What are the pros and cons of each action, given reads, stack size and action on the flop? And ultimately, what would you do? and why?
The small bet and flatcall could be deemed fishy, but I'd stick in a re-raise here to find out where I am. If I call, then there are too many cards that can ruin my hand and give my opponents a chance to bluff me out. Someone may well have a set here, but you'll soon find out if you are played back against.
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NoflopsHomer
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #23 on:
August 09, 2007, 09:34:42 AM »
4) Before, he lead out for $50 into a $277 pot, which seemed incredibly weak, now the BB suddenly bets $200 into a $427 pot and UTG flat calls again. At this point, I think the BB has either the straight, 9-6 or a 9 with a decent kicker. UTG has just called again, I think he has an overpair to the board, but can't justify raising here, he knows the big blind doesn't like to fold so I don't think he has a set because he'd have raised knowing he was going to be called, plus we are an unknown quantity here but we only flat-called the flop so at the moment we couldn't be considered having much. We should call here once more, we're getting over 4-1 on our call, we are behind at the moment though.
5) Ok, the BB bets into the paired board, that's not a major problem, he might well be value-betting two pair or a straight here which I think is more likely that a full house. UTG just calls, for a third time, we can eliminate him having a set because surely he'll put the BB all-in because he's more likely to get the BB calling for the rest of his stack (the BB having put around half his stack in) than getting us to make an overcall for less money. If he has an overpair to the board, the deuce is a good card for him too in case the big blind had made two pair on the turn. He seems unconcerned about us calling here behind him, so I suspect he has a big pair.
6) UTG was deciding whether or not it was worthwhile to raise here, I think he knew he was beating the BB, but wasn't sure if raising would be a good move. Sometimes, the dwell is also used to try and discourage someone else from raising here also.
7) I raise and make it $1,000. Enough to put the big blind all-in, if he had been leading with a set then fair enough, but back-door flushes don't occur often in re-raised pots so we need to make the most of this.
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byronkincaid
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #24 on:
August 09, 2007, 10:05:33 AM »
Quote
7) I raise and make it $1,000. Enough to put the big blind all-in, if he had been leading with a set then fair enough, but back-door flushes don't occur often in re-raised pots so we need to make the most of this.
Playing for stacks with a non nut flush on a paired board. you're braver than me.
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snoopy1239
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #25 on:
August 10, 2007, 05:37:31 AM »
4) How has your estimation of their ranges changed given the turn action? What would you do here? And why?
From the player description you have given, I think the Big Blind either has Pocket Nines, A-9 or an overpair like Tens or Jacks to be pulling the trigger for the second time.
As for the under the gun player, he could either be playing an overpair rather cagily or trapping with a Flopped set.
I'd be treading very carefuly now and would even consider a fold.
5) Now what are you thinking about their relevant ranges? What kind of hands do you figure either of the players to be holding, putting pre/flop/turn/river action together?
I think the Big Blind has Jacks and UTG has
6) What do you think UTG running his clock down signifies?
He may be pretending to think to encourage you to raise, a squeeze play of sorts, but I have a feeling he has made a flush with A-Ks and was contemplating a re-raise.
7) Do you call/fold or raise here? and if you raise, how much?
You could be ahead here against Tens and Jacks or something similar, but the Big Blind betting out on a board like that suggests he must have something, especially when it's only $300 with two players behind him. I'd fold.
«
Last Edit: August 10, 2007, 05:42:16 AM by snoopy1239
»
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snoopy1239
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #26 on:
August 10, 2007, 05:39:44 AM »
Quote from: byronkincaid on August 09, 2007, 10:05:33 AM
Quote
7) I raise and make it $1,000. Enough to put the big blind all-in, if he had been leading with a set then fair enough, but back-door flushes don't occur often in re-raised pots so we need to make the most of this.
Playing for stacks with a non nut flush on a paired board. you're braver than me.
Yep, no way I'm raising here. I can't see what's going to call you, and there's too high a chance that you're screwed. The Big Blind is desrcibed as passive, but still not worth the risk for me.
«
Last Edit: August 10, 2007, 05:43:10 AM by snoopy1239
»
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totalise
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #27 on:
August 10, 2007, 01:08:45 PM »
hi all,
this is how the story ended.
I just called on the river, and BB showed 45 for the straight and UTG had JJ, so I scooped the pot... at the time I didn't really consider raising, but given the way UTG has played the hand, I really think he has me beat very rarely, so its not like i should be *too* scared of him, and SB is of course a pretty bad player, so the more I thought about it the more feasible a raise could be, but the fact that SB was betting into two players rather then one swayed it to a call.
As for flop play, I think raising here is the best line to take as a "standard" line, if for no other reason then balance, and to stop yourself playing a style dependant on your hole cards, which leads to exploitability (ie, raising spots like this with big hands and bluffs but just call with marginal hands/draws) but as long as you aren't doing that, then calling here some of the time is okay.
thanks for all the comments
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MANTIS01
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What kind of fuckery is this?
Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #28 on:
August 10, 2007, 04:41:53 PM »
A cracking thread from start to finish.
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TightEnd
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Re: Hand of the Week: 6th August
«
Reply #29 on:
August 10, 2007, 05:57:38 PM »
Quote from: totalise on August 10, 2007, 01:08:45 PM
hi all,
this is how the story ended.
I just called on the river, and BB showed 45 for the straight and UTG had JJ, so I scooped the pot... at the time I didn't really consider raising, but given the way UTG has played the hand, I really think he has me beat very rarely, so its not like i should be *too* scared of him, and SB is of course a pretty bad player, so the more I thought about it the more feasible a raise could be, but the fact that SB was betting into two players rather then one swayed it to a call.
As for flop play, I think raising here is the best line to take as a "standard" line, if for no other reason then balance, and to stop yourself playing a style dependant on your hole cards, which leads to exploitability (ie, raising spots like this with big hands and bluffs but just call with marginal hands/draws) but as long as you aren't doing that, then calling here some of the time is okay.
thanks for all the comments
thank you
great stuff...there you go with randomisation again, your greatest tip ever to me!
Mantis does a tournament hand starting Sunday night/Monday.
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