If he calls the turn why would he fold the river?
The only reason would be that he was looking to improve...which seems an unlikely thought process. The rivered 3 changes nothing, so if he thought his tp was good on the turn it stands to reason he's going to stick with that idea now.
typically, the range of hands people 2 barrel with in mid stakes games is much wider then the range they are going to fire the third barrell. This is one of those spots where if it goes check/check on the river, your 10 is almost always good, but against typical opponents, if the river gets bet, you are being bled to death by QQ++, which is why people call turns and fold rivers. Plus he had the flush draw.
If you had strength you wouldn't want to loose him here so you wouldn't bet big....therefore any big bet will look suspicious. And if you bet small he is priced in to call.
what? so if you bet big its obv a bluff, if you bet small its a value bet, but one that he is "priced in to call" because sometimes you are going to bet small on a bluff as well? Flip the script and that means you can bet big on value bets as well. This notion of "he wouldn't bet so big" is so 2006.
Save the bullet.
I disagree, and if you can get people callin down with bluff catchers for stacks, then you probably have the war won long term anyways, so its a win-win situation.
Also firing rivers here lets you control turns in future pots because you are building yourself leverage, people are going to be fearful of calling turns because they are expecting to face river bets, not knowing if you have the nuts or complete air.. so you have a lot more leeway to take down pots or value-bet thin mercilessly.