Hand of the Week: October 1st

[boldie]

the 10 minutes of passivity  is a tricky thing really and something that is hard to judge someone else's reaction to untill you've sat with them for a while or played them before.

Most players however only actually actively remember the first few hands you've played against them. People tend to judge others within seconds and for poker players this is no different. It is however a BIG mistake to do so but it's something that most people can't help..they do it in every real life situation (people might not admit it but they make their minds up about you within 10 second..they might change it when they get to know you but innitially their mind is already made up between sweeping generalisations..Good player/Bad player is one of them) and therefore they also do it when playing HU poker online or live.

If (in HU obviously on a full table it takes longer) you play the first 8 hands tighter than anything you have ever done people will throughout the session respect your raises, if you are throwing your chips in the middle like there's no tomorrow for those same 8 hands they tend not to repsect any of the bets you make for the rest of the session.

I remember a while ago someone (Mr A) posted something about a guy (call him mr B) he was playing HU online who stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes or so. Now this mr B was losing money big style before he stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes..Mr A however got absolutely humped when Mr B got back. The question Mr A posted was "Was there someone else there who took over from Mr B ..the style was completely different and I got done..the new Mr B could actually play and I lost all my money!"

Now it could indeed be that there was another Mr B who took over from the first one..but that is irrelevant to the eventual result..Mr A lost his money for the rest of the session simply because he had already made his mind up about what hand Mr B plays and how he plays them..He did not re-asses Mr B when Mr B changed styles...and THAT is what lost him his money.

If the Villain in this hand is an experienced winning HU player he will have actively (as in it did more than just register as "hey this is easy") noticed the 10 or so minutes..he could still write it down as "Changing styles to keep me guessing" though..or "not seen any cards (unlikely)" But to actually fold his hand immediately when he's in position on a board where, unless you have the made straight or top set, he can always out play you is something else entirely  and that's the main reason I would not be afraid of that last 10 minutes costing me if I lead out here.

This is all amateur psychology of course but just something I noticed.

[Flea]

I'd have definitely bet out on the flop but given the check then I think you have to wonder if he has anything of it.

Working backwards a little then, he put a standard 3 times BB raise in pre-flop which you called (given the description of Villain then this could mean almost anything although I'd discount a high pocket pair as I'm not sure he'd play one this way against his perceived image of you).

After flop I think your still ahead but would not discount him now having a straight draw so don't want to give him a free card - therefore I'd raise but I'd try to raise a large amount which looks weak so he thinks you have something but not much, maybe raise to 225 (I know that sounds like an over-bet but that's what I want villain to think and it also then looks like a desperation move against someone who perceives they are out-playing you), if he folds then ok you may have missed value but equally avoided any nasty turn cards.

If he calls then pray the turn is a nothing card and then lead out a large bet.

If he re-raises then as I think I'm ahead I'd push all-in - if I'm beat then that's just bad luck and impossible to tell against this sort of player.

[madasahatstand]

the 10 minutes of passivity  is a tricky thing really and something that is hard to judge someone else's reaction to untill you've sat with them for a while or played them before.

Most players however only actually actively remember the first few hands you've played against them. People tend to judge others within seconds and for poker players this is no different. It is however a BIG mistake to do so but it's something that most people can't help..they do it in every real life situation (people might not admit it but they make their minds up about you within 10 second..they might change it when they get to know you but innitially their mind is already made up between sweeping generalisations..Good player/Bad player is one of them) and therefore they also do it when playing HU poker online or live.

If (in HU obviously on a full table it takes longer) you play the first 8 hands tighter than anything you have ever done people will throughout the session respect your raises, if you are throwing your chips in the middle like there's no tomorrow for those same 8 hands they tend not to repsect any of the bets you make for the rest of the session.

I remember a while ago someone (Mr A) posted something about a guy (call him mr B) he was playing HU online who stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes or so. Now this mr B was losing money big style before he stepped away from the PC for 10 minutes..Mr A however got absolutely humped when Mr B got back. The question Mr A posted was "Was there someone else there who took over from Mr B ..the style was completely different and I got done..the new Mr B could actually play and I lost all my money!"

Now it could indeed be that there was another Mr B who took over from the first one..but that is irrelevant to the eventual result..Mr A lost his money for the rest of the session simply because he had already made his mind up about what hand Mr B plays and how he plays them..He did not re-asses Mr B when Mr B changed styles...and THAT is what lost him his money.

If the Villain in this hand is an experienced winning HU player he will have actively (as in it did more than just register as "hey this is easy") noticed the 10 or so minutes..he could still write it down as "Changing styles to keep me guessing" though..or "not seen any cards (unlikely)" But to actually fold his hand immediately when he's in position on a board where, unless you have the made straight or top set, he can always out play you is something else entirely  and that's the main reason I would not be afraid of that last 10 minutes costing me if I lead out here.

This is all amateur psychology of course but just something I noticed.

IM DIGESTING THE AMATEUR PSYCHOLOGY.KEEP IT UP

[totalise]

hi all, good comments so far, keep them coming!

the action from the flop goes as follows: hero checks, villain bets $23, and hero raises to $93, and villain calls. The reason why I dint go for the lead/3-bet allin is that the stacks were a bit deeper then normal, and I didn't think that our equity would be very good if the action went: hero bets $20 (or so) villain raises to $90, and then hero slams it in. If the stacks were 100bb, then I'd have liked that move a lot more. I also in the depths of my mind thought that if we c/raised, there was a chance that villain could re-re-raise to say $200 or so with complete air, as this is a great flop to represent a hand from the BB, and he knows that, so he could try and "re-steal" the pot from us,  and then we could shovel it in.

Also if a scare card does come, it increases the frequency with which our opponent is likely to try and steal the pot, which further increases our equity in this spot. Of course, it also leaves us looking like an idiot the times he turns the hand and we call a stack off with a ragged 2pair!

Anyways, onto the next stage:

hero raises to $93, and villain calls.

Turn comes the As, to give a board of   , pot $210 roughly (hero has remember)

Action is on hero:

Given villains flop play, and given his range overall, how likely is it that the ace will have improved his hand?  how would you proceed from here given his global range? what are the benefits of checking vs betting? and finally, what would you do?

Action.. hero checks, and villain bets $155. 


What do you do here? How much value is there to lettin him bluff vs raising and trying to get more value from second best hands? if you push here, how often will he call with a hand you can beat, given his turn bet, and how often will he fold a better hand? and if he has air, how often do you think hes gonna be sending it in on the river?

river play to come on Friday.

[Flea]

That's a roughly 2/3rd pot find out where you are bet, I think he's now hit an ace but is not sure if you've got the straight as your betting could have been someone on a draw - therefore I'd come over the top all-in now as it no longer looks like he's trying to just bet you off it he now wants the possibility of seeing another card and maybe taking more off you if he hits or taking it down now if you don't have anything.

The all-in may induce a call in which case you'll need to avoid a 2,5 another ace and whatever his other hole card is - but I think he's showing signs of folding if you play it strongly IMO.

[Flea]

Meant to say I think opponent has been playing something from A8 - AJ range in my opinion probably A9.

Although I am pretty awful at reading other peoples possible hands 

[boldie]

ok..the least worrying of all the scare cards is now out. As I said before the chances of him having a 2 are lower in my opinion that him having an Ace 6 or 7. He bets half the pot here after calling your, fairly substantial, check raise on the flop. We have to assume he has some sort of hand A6 (Ace with the open ender..nice) A5 (top pair with ace kicker...and now two pair..not nice for us) BUT with it being an Ace of Spades that came down on the turn if he just hit and went ahead in the hand we can outdraw him with any 3 4 and spade. He has shown strenght though so I expect that to continue..as you played it I reraise to 400$ and call an all in.

[AlexMartin]

I cant think of a more perfect opportunity to bluff than here. He doesnt have a 2, and there is a definite possibility that you could. This is a bluff that can easily make him lay the best hand down (ie. if he had a pair on the flop and now 2 pair on the turn) and gives your bluff a whole dirtload of equity. Raise. I cant see stack sizes but im commited here with a large raise repping a 2.

[totalise]

I cant think of a more perfect opportunity to bluff than here. He doesnt have a 2, and there is a definite possibility that you could. This is a bluff that can easily make him lay the best hand down (ie. if he had a pair on the flop and now 2 pair on the turn) and gives your bluff a whole dirtload of equity. Raise. I cant see stack sizes but im commited here with a large raise repping a 2.

i kinda agree, I guess the crux of the matter with this spot centres on:

a) how often does he fold a better hand
b) how often does he call with a worse hand
c) how often does he have a hand that wont put a single cent more in the pot that can outdraw you on the river (ie protecting your hand from giving up equity when theres no more to be gained)
d) how often do you think hes gonna ship it in with a bluff on the river if the river is a complete blank
e) if he has you beat on the turn, how often is he stacking off if you improve your hand on the river and it leaves him with a second best hand.


At the time I thought the ace was the best possible card in the deck to come, because it increases the % of  E) occuring due to most of our outs being "hidden" in that the flush is a backdoor draw and a 3/4 paring wouldn't be *that* scary to an ace as it lets you rep a whiffed draw on the river, and also D) because its a card that LAGs love to latch onto when they are running bluffs.

[totalise]

hi all,

thanks again for the comments!

Action on the turn was that hero just called the turn bet of $155:


river came the , for a final board of   , action on hero:


Given the range of your opponent, what % of the time do you think villain will try and bluff if you check? clearly this will govern the frequency with which you bet/check, so based on all that, what is your river action, based on how the whole hand has been played? and if you check, what do you do if he a) makes a small bet b) ships it in

reveal to come on Sunday, thanks again for the comments

[boldie]

don't like the way this hand has been played tote..Hero has given villain time to out draw him here..the check call on the turn doesn't make a lot of sense to me and now you're behind to..well..everything he bets with really.
If you don't stick them in here he's not going away if he bets and with a very lowly two pair on this board you don't want any callers..so check raising is out.
You could lead out for all your chips here. and hope he would fold 2 pair or better if he thinks you have the 2 (which your turn call could very well indicate....but it really would be making a play more than anything else.

Check call is an option..but what hand that you beat will he bet with? AK? I don't think so..not after you called 155 on the turn...so there's no point in this

You could check fold ...if you don't lead out you might aswell check fold I think..you've just about given the pot up if you don't lead out after just calling the turn.

It depends for me...I would probably lead out here (70% of the time) hoping he can fold 2 pair + here or check fold if I think he can't..I just really don't like the way the turn was played...not leading out gives the pot up I think...so stick in 250 ish on a bluff.

[WellChief]

Your hand is a bit under-represented here, but it is still kind of a bluff-catcher given the board.  That said, I think an opponent like this will bluff a high %age of the time, especially given the turn card and your check-call.  LAG's normally can't stop themselves betting when scare cards come and weakness is shown.

I would check-call the river.  Opponent could easily have a hand like 4-6, and your hand looks something like that too.

With heads up action though the flow of the action is so important, so only the hero can make the best judgement here.

[snoopy1239]

hi all, good comments so far, keep them coming!

the action from the flop goes as follows: hero checks, villain bets $23, and hero raises to $93, and villain calls. The reason why I dint go for the lead/3-bet allin is that the stacks were a bit deeper then normal, and I didn't think that our equity would be very good if the action went: hero bets $20 (or so) villain raises to $90, and then hero slams it in. If the stacks were 100bb, then I'd have liked that move a lot more. I also in the depths of my mind thought that if we c/raised, there was a chance that villain could re-re-raise to say $200 or so with complete air, as this is a great flop to represent a hand from the BB, and he knows that, so he could try and "re-steal" the pot from us,  and then we could shovel it in.

That's true to an extent, but the way you've played it, you've left yourself with a mighty tough decision on the Turn without really knowing where you stand. Once he's called your check-raise, I would have thought it unlikely that you are going to win a big pot, so you might as well take a half-decent pot on the Flop rather than risk your bollox unnecessarily.

Come Turn and River, I would normally say check and try to induce a bet from a missed open ended straight draw, but given he could have a set or a big two pair, I think you may have to try a block bet and bet half the pot.

Okay, time for an educated guess, let's go with A-Q and he goes antsy in his pantsy and ships it in.

[snoopy1239]

The reveal for totalise's latest hand of the week, plus his conlusion, can be found in the article below:

http://www.blondepoker.com/index.php?q=node/12600

[boldie]

interesting indeed...

Follow on question, what would you have done if he had stuck his chips in on the river?