Tremendous Bluff? Or Not?

[ACE2M]

Can we all agree in 3 bullet points what we should learn from this thread?

1, m3boy is tight as f*@%
2, LeKnave is a Kipper
3, Mantis and LuckyLoyd secretly fancy eachother

[doubleup]

Some general questions.

With the exception of Lloyd and Robbie can the players who have comented on this thread who are making their way to Waterford for the BigSlick event please identify themselves - Im lead to believe that a number of you are coming over?

Secondly, and with reference to my first question above, do you guys play cash games?

Thirdly, do you play cash games online? If so, site and sn please.

I was thinking of going but if its going to be populated by w4nkers like you, I won't bother.

[TightEnd]

Guys keep it civil please

terrific thread full of strong opinions, lets not spoil it

ta

[MANTIS01]

Let's say after the limp with 10-J the sb raises pre-flop and you have to fold. The next hand you pick up Aces and limp again. The sb who is now on the button and who is aware you have a tendancy to limp-fold when you get short raises it up again and you get paid. Over the course of the next few orbits, when you limp, people are wary of raising because they have seen you have a tendancy to limp with strength. The limp with 10-J has bought you things that are difficult to quantify.

Now while this is only a minor point to bring to the debate it is worth some consideration. The future implications of your present actions go to make up the whole tournament experience. In chess, players often sacrifice a piece or two in order to achieve a greater goal. So when you focus on people, behaviour and their tendancies you see that your actions have a good deal of bearing on theirs.

Manipulating your image and behaviour means an investment now sets up a later payday. I don't love the maths because it is difficult to factor in all the permations that every action will bring later in the tournament. And it is why I am more inclined to say poker is a game that involves people as a more important entity than numbers. Why advertise a bluff if you don't want people to believe that is your tendancy...when in reality it isn't...and how would you formulate an equation that shows exactly how much that advertisement is going to reap in the future?

[doubleup]

Mantis - there really isn't any point.  The pushbots are unwilling to enter any sensible discussion as to whether there is any place for limping when you have 10bbs, although this is a valid strategic discussion.  They prefer to pick on some parts of your posts that maybe aren't quite correct instead of looking at the general meaning of what you are trying to say. 

Logic dictates that there must be a point when a seeing the flop strategy is superior to an allin strategy.  This might be a fixed point, but I think that in the transition between the two there must be situations that allow you to use either profitably.  I'm pretty sure that LeKnave's hand was a push as it is profitable to play it that way and I can't see how seeing the flop is going help him much.  Whether the JT hand was a valid limp I don't know, but folding is the only other option which seems like a bit of a wasted opportunity.

[totalise]

Mantis - there really isn't any point.  The pushbots are unwilling to enter any sensible discussion as to whether there is any place for limping when you have 10bbs, although this is a valid strategic discussion.  They prefer to pick on some parts of your posts that maybe aren't quite correct instead of looking at the general meaning of what you are trying to say.

so people are trying to point out where someone is wrong, rather then playing a guessing game as to what someone is trying to say? I'm sure you can see why this isn't in the least bit stupid

Logic dictates that there must be a point when a seeing the flop strategy is superior to an allin strategy.

of course, and logic dictates that there must be a point where seeing a flop is inferior to folding or pushing

This might be a fixed point, but I think that in the transition between the two there must be situations that allow you to use either profitably

okay, but poker is about finding a spot with the highest EV, not about finding spots that have a positive EV

I'm pretty sure that LeKnave's hand was a push as it is profitable to play it that way and I can't see how seeing the flop is going help him much.  Whether the JT hand was a valid limp I don't know, but folding is the only other option which seems like a bit of a wasted opportunity.

the JT wasn't a valid limp, because of what M3boy said about his read of the UTG limper.  Clearly in some contrived spots limping with 10J will be the best play, but it takes some imagination (whcih we have seen a lot of in this thread) to justify it

[totalise]

hi mantis,

its not hard to factor in the future permetations of action, if you know the right math. The whole point why this is bad "advertising" is because the stacks are so shallow. I know we can contrive all sorts of fanciful examples to  try and justify our opinion, you did it above, where u said "lets say we make a negative EV play, and the next hand maybe we hit a >200/1 shot and get AA, and then not only do we hit a long shot like that, we also hit another long shot in that the SB decides to raise us".....we can all tell stories about unlikely occurances that turned out good!!!!

Manipulating your image and behaviour means an investment now sets up a later payday.

you seriously over estimate how much people give a crap about image/behaviour, most people, especially amatuers, dont care about this stuff. They play their cards, and be damned about anything else

Why advertise a bluff if you don't want people to believe that is your tendancy...when in reality it isn't...and how would you formulate an equation that shows exactly how much that advertisement is going to reap in the future?

because u cant afford it, and most people dont care. This is the best equation... bad play + over-estimating your edge at poker = going broke... embracing math + finding positive ev spots = not going broke.

[doubleup]

This might be a fixed point, but I think that in the transition between the two there must be situations that allow you to use either profitably

okay, but poker is about finding a spot with the highest EV, not about finding spots that have a positive EV

Well obviously thats the case, but which strategy is the more profitable?

.......Clearly in some contrived spots limping with 10J will be the best play, but it takes some imagination (whcih we have seen a lot of in this thread) to justify it

Ah a minor concession at last. 

[MANTIS01]

But once again Totalise I have learnt nothing from you other than maths is good...which is something you emphasize in every post.

In this tournament my stack is in a grey area for ME. Too big to push and too small to raise. My particular skill set is image/behaviour and the fact you suggest most people don't give a crap about this gives me the very edge you insist I don't have.

Limping allows me to use my skill set but pushing does not. These are the only two choices I have if I want to win a pot. I AM genuinely interested to hear how you equate future permetations based on current actions...but you just say that's not hard.

It is crystal clear that my limping with 10-J here gets you forming very strong opinions about my play and yet in the same breath you suggest players don't actually give a stuff about that and just play their cards. My approach involves manipulating these strong opinions you say don't exist against the player that forms them.

Anyways, what is your particular strategy for the current tournament predicament, what is your way forward? If it is just wait to push with something then I really don't see how you can be so critical of trying something else. Also I think just saying most people are crap and don't care and just play their cards is a bit narrow-minded and doesn't really aspire to playing at higher levels in major tournaments.

While you may reject the notion that "playing" people doesn't work you can see how I have pushed your buttons throughout this thread. Rather than just trumpeting the maths, which I appreciate is standard for...er maths guys...tell me what you do from now on in to turn your tournament around. This is what I am interested in.

[totalise]

Limping allows me to use my skill set but pushing does not. These are the only two choices I have if I want to win a pot. I AM genuinely interested to hear how you equate future permetations based on current actions...but you just say that's not hard.

i think you have missed my post to doubleup, limping is only very bad here because of M3's assumptions about the EP limp in an earlier post. I still dont think its possible to outplay people postflop with 10bb, but I do recognise that in certain circumstances, its feasible to limp and turn a profit. This spot isn't one of them, given the reads

It is crystal clear that my limping with 10-J here gets you forming very strong opinions about my play and yet in the same breath you suggest players don't actually give a stuff about that and just play their cards. My approach involves manipulating these strong opinions you say don't exist against the player that forms them.

i am commenting in a thread from an ametueur tournament with amaetur players, its very likely that you can limp and then fold, and in 3 hands time, ask the entire table what happened 3 hands ago, and none of them will have a clue what happened. This is the audience you are trying to manipulate. this limp in itself doesn't make me form too many opinions about your play, but if you limp here, given the read of the poster, THAT is what helps me form an opinion. This is the distinction I think you are missing

Anyways, what is your particular strategy for the current tournament predicament, what is your way forward? If it is just wait to push with something then I really don't see how you can be so critical of trying something else. Also I think just saying most people are crap and don't care and just play their cards is a bit narrow-minded and doesn't really aspire to playing at higher levels in major tournaments.

When i post in a thread in PHA, I give advice based on the situation. It doesn't matter how you would play a hand in a higher buyin event, if they wanted advice on that, they would ask for it, and then i would offer it.

While you may reject the notion that "playing" people doesn't work you can see how I have pushed your buttons throughout this thread. Rather than just trumpeting the maths, which I appreciate is standard for...er maths guys...tell me what you do from now on in to turn your tournament around. This is what I am interested in.

I dont know what id do, im confident enough in my own abilities that i can find spots in the future that mean i dont have to take negative EV spots now hoping to get lucky. EV manifests intself in many spots,this is the power math guys have over people that wave their hands in the air and claim to think outside the box,  its not dependant on the results of a given situation.

[action man]

optimal strategy

[ ] limp 88 utg short
[ ] call an utg limper with JT from the button or anywhere with shallow stacks
[X ] never fold this hand after you have overlimped when you flop tp
[X] push 88 utg
[X] pass the JT to the all in shove
[X] find a hand to re-shove or raise and call a push (m3-boy)
[X] reading 2+2 too much

[action man]

ARRRGH!! THE EFFECTIVE STACKS IN THIS HAND ARE LESS THAN 10 BBS!! LIMPING UTG FOR MORE THAN 10% OF YOUR STACK WHEN YOU ARE NOT DELIGHTED TO GET IT IN NO MATTER WHAT IS RETARDED. LIMPING FOR ONE EIGHT OF YOUR STACK TO TRY AND SEE A FLOP WHEN YOU THINK UTG LIMPED A STRONG HAND IS RETARDED.

TALK OF TELLS AND LIVE POKER AND DIGGING YOURSELF OUT OF HOLES BY SEEING FLOPS FROM A LESS THAN 10 BB STACK AND THIS WHOLE DISCUSSION IS UNBELIEVABLY OUT OF THIS WORLD RETARDED.

this is cold hard truth imo. llyold tried to explain it as best he could but his analytical posts fell on deaf ears.