Tremendous Bluff? Or Not?

[Laxie]

Blimey...worn from reading this one lads!  lol

Sooooo, the long and short of it...you were just fierce unlucky in that hand?

[kinboshi]

Blimey...worn from reading this one lads!  lol

Sooooo, the long and short of it...you were just fierce unlucky in that hand?

No, he played it badly.  As did LeKnave!

[MANTIS01]

The Hail Mary is a high risk-high reward play so most of the time it would make no sense to rely on it. But there comes a time when playing sport where a high risk-high reward play becomes more appealing. In American Football that time is usually when time is running out...you are behind...and you need to make something happen.

In our tournament situation here...time is running out...we are behind...and we need to make something happen. So the high risk-high reward play is absolutely something to consider, as it is in any other sport. To be a slave to long term expectations and statistics at this point in time is not a good idea.

However, here is a statistic for the maths guys. Seeing a flop with 10-J then folding and pushing with something else gives you 2 chances to win. Just waiting to push only gives you 1 chance to win. Mathematically you are TWICE as likely to win limping with 10-J...lol.

Good discussion thou...

[Bongo]

However, here is a statistic for the maths guys. Seeing a flop with 10-J then folding and pushing with something else gives you 2 chances to win. Just waiting to push only gives you 1 chance to win. Mathematically you are TWICE as likely to win limping with 10-J...lol.

Untrue.

[M3boy]

Blimey...worn from reading this one lads!  lol

Sooooo, the long and short of it...you were just fierce unlucky in that hand?

No, I made the mistake of not pushing all in on the flop, then another mistake by not calling the all in

The discussion now is the potential of limping with J 10 with a short stack

[totalise]

The Hail Mary is a high risk-high reward play so most of the time it would make no sense to rely on it. But there comes a time when playing sport where a high risk-high reward play becomes more appealing. In American Football that time is usually when time is running out...you are behind...and you need to make something happen.

the above is more applicable when you dont have any other option... when if you dont take that play, you are almost certain to lose. Its like having a stack of 2k and posting a 1k big blind and calling blind, .. not having an over-rated hand on the button when someone limps UTG, where u suspect he has a big hand, and u have circa 10bb

However, here is a statistic for the maths guys. Seeing a flop with 10-J then folding and pushing with something else gives you 2 chances to win. Just waiting to push only gives you 1 chance to win. Mathematically you are TWICE as likely to win limping with 10-J...lol.

dont stop there, with 10 BB you can attempt to see the flop with your next NINE HANDS!!!!! and then push allin, that gives you 10 ways to win!! 

The discussion now is the potential of limping with J 10 with a short stack

no, at least as far as im concerned, the discussion is on the potential of limping in with 10J, given what your read was of Leknave and the liklihood of him having a big hand. There can be times when limping here is ok, given this "read", this isn't one of them.

[M3boy]

no, at least as far as im concerned, the discussion is on the potential of limping in with 10J, given what your read was of Leknave and the liklihood of him having a big hand. There can be times when limping here is ok, given this "read", this isn't one of them.

Why is this not one of them? I was trying to "make" things happen.

Calculated risk of flopping a monster and a certain double up or just loosing one big blind (10xBB or 9xBB isnt that much of a difference). My perception of the UTG's hand changed when they checked a dangerous flop.

We all have different opinions of certain situations - it is good to see others opinions.

[LuckyLloyd]

Posted by: LuckyLloyd

Quote
Every hand of poker you play has to be viewed in light of whether it is plus EV or not. Cash games and tournaments should not be analysed any differently.

Now maybe you do have an argument that limpimg here is NOT a viable option, but this quote is so so wrong. Cash games and Tournaments are SO different.
Tournaments are about survival AND chip accumulation. Cash is totally different.

In this thread (and the stickied thread at the top of the forum) there is a lot of thought processes along the lines of the above being aired out. Which is bad - because in disagreeing with me here you are taking the losing side of a very fundamental argument in relation to tournament theory which has been dealt with on a lot of other forums a long time before now. I'll start a new thread tonight or tomorrow to discuss an overallo mentallity and approach to tournaments. For the moment, maybe consider the following thread:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/1030662/site_id/1#import

That is a three year old discussion - but the point still holds: most people are nowhere near as good as they think they are and simply cannot afford to pass up any equity edge.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: totalise

dont stop there, with 10 BB you can attempt to see the flop with your next NINE HANDS!!!!! and then push allin, that gives you 10 ways to win!! 

Yes you could, but if you did that you would be applying the logic you're using for this unique situation to other completely different situations (fewer chips/different circumstances etc..) and as I have already said...that is not good tournament strategy.

Posted by: totalise

the above is more applicable when you dont have any other option... when if you dont take that play, you are almost certain to lose. Its like having a stack of 2k and posting a 1k big blind and calling blind, .. not having an over-rated hand on the button when someone limps UTG, where u suspect he has a big hand, and u have circa 10bb

I agree. The Hail Mary play is the last desperate roll of the dice when you have no other choice...as is the short-stack all-in in tournament poker. So why employ the Hail Mary strategy (all-in) when you DO have other choices...namely limping here. You can take this option and STILL use the Hail Mary (all-in) if it doesn't work. Why go straight for this last resort move when you STILL have other options to explore? Yes, your moves are increasing in risk but that's what your position in the game dictates...until finally you put it all on the line. But you aren't forced into that situation just yet. What other choice do you have now other than the all-in or one last speculative limp? The fact you have another choice suggests the Hail-Mary all-in isn't appropriate just yet. I still haven't heard another viable choice from anyone??

Posted by: LuckyLloyd

In this thread (and the stickied thread at the top of the forum) there is a lot of thought processes along the lines of the above being aired out. Which is bad - because in disagreeing with me here you are taking the losing side of a very fundamental argument in relation to tournament theory which has been dealt with on a lot of other forums a long time before now.

Wow. I look forward to this debate. Personally I enjoy the difference that exists between players...always have. So this will be fun. Tournament play is a WORLD away from cash play...different games entirely...I doubt I will be on the loosing side of this argument Lloyd...whatever some people on other forums say:)

[TheChipPrince]

I like a good debate.... continue!!

[ACE2M]

i don't mind the limp here, i've used it many times to good effect. If i retain enough chips to have some fold equity whilst making up my mind to get all my chips in within the next round or maybe 2 if this hand doesn't gain any chips.

on the flop i might raise less to induce a bluff but i certainly ain't ever folding to leknave or anyone else here after my bet.

[kinboshi]

on the flop i might raise less to induce a bluff but i certainly ain't ever folding to leknave or anyone else here after my bet.

That's one key point here

[doubleup]

For the moment, maybe consider the following thread:

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/1030662/site_id/1#import

Although vaguely interesting (altho I'm almost certain I read it at the time) I can't see what this has to do with the debate.  In a cash game everything you do should be ev+.  In a tournament you sometimes have so little chips you have to make plays that would not be correct if you could maintain your stack size.  The correct play will yield the best return in both cases, but there are clear differences in what you would do with a small stack in a cash game and a tournament.  I really don't see how you can disagree with that.

[MANTIS01]

When all is said and done taking the risk by limping with the 10-J WAS the perfect play for this particular situation. Now whilst I know the last bastion of the +EV long term strategist is to cry "results orientated". My reply is...EXACTLY.

It really is ok to knowingly step outside the maths because your unique tournament situation dictates this is a neccessary risk...get the result you need...then retreat back to the safety of the numbers game.

In this paticular situation you go for a high risk-high reward play...you flop top pair...after the UTG checks (information you have from playing your position...A fact you considered before the initial limp)...all the chips go in and you double through an over enthusiastic pair of eights. Absolutely perfect for the situation you were in....you needed a result and you got one...while only risking 1,600 chips. In an instant your whole tournament position has changed.

While the point that this wont work most of the time is a fact...you needed it to work NOW...and it did. I think trying to console yourself that you passed pre-flop...didn't double through...but that's ok because most of the time you would have done the right thing is really not viable under short-stack tournament conditions. You STILL need to double through in the here and the now...but now you will be risking ALL your chips to try and achieve that eventuality...and you will STILL need to get lucky in order to get there.

[JungleCat03]

If you are going to use "LOOK AT THE RESULT! LOOK AT THE RESULT!" as justification for losing plays, it would probably pay to look at the result of this particular hand and conclude that the result was less than perfect (for M3boy at least - LeKnave was probably fairly pleased with the result.)

I would definitely say limping TJ is a losing play here, stack size at <8BBs is too shallow to generate any kind of good implied odds to flop a big hand and too shallow to "outplay" opponents often enough with position to be profitable.

You have a stack that can put people to a decision preflop - just about...use that now, rather than weakly limping off chips that can be used as a weapon.

Incidentally against half decent players if you limp on the button here, you will sometimes be punished by someone in the blinds who will apply a limper's tax and then you face the almost criminal siutuation of voluntarily putting chips into a pot when you have less than 8 big blinds and not seeing a flop...