Tremendous Bluff? Or Not?

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: MANTIS01

Truely inspired in fact because you knew how your opponent was going to think before he even thought it.....that must be a good weapon to have yes?

Posted by: LeKnave

It was a joke, chill out.

I was also joking

[TheChipPrince]

The pass has already been discussed and concluded, but why are you limping with 7.75 BB's??  I wouldnt be looking to play ANY post flop poker with this stack size...

[Paullie_D]

I was sitting to Paul's left in this hand...and let him vent at me during the break that came immediately after and, with all due respect to him, I listened to him talk himself out of calling..but then, I thought he was beaten too!

I, and at least 2 others I spoke to during the break who were at the table, thought that Le Knave had limped with a big pair...as soon as he did, I was immediately suspicious...perhaps that's why he did it? Inspired play pre-flop or tremedous bluff after..I dunno.

As for Paul limping into the pot...at the three APAT events we have been on the same table, he plays aggressive poker pre-flop with a tremendous range..I never know where I am. I usually think he's rasiing into my BB with trash (as per normal) but I don't usually have the stuff to push back...until I do, then I get chips.

[Graham C]

My two cents, I know you said that you were aware that you made a mistake, but regardless of that, I'm quite surprised someone of your calibre is asking a question like this Paul, you knew the answer before you called and after you folded, I wonder if the post is more for another reason.

[Longy]

Ugh this is not a pretty hand.

M3boy fold preflop or shove. Bet flop looking to get it in, call turn raise obv.

Le Knave shove preflop, bet flop, I actually don't mind the turn m3 looks to be betting an inferior hand after the flop check.

[M3boy]

My two cents, I know you said that you were aware that you made a mistake, but regardless of that, I'm quite surprised someone of your calibre is asking a question like this Paul, you knew the answer before you called and after you folded, I wonder if the post is more for another reason.

? No other reason.

I genuinely could not make up my mind at the time weather this was a good spot to CR or not.

[M3boy]

As for Paul limping into the pot...at the three APAT events we have been on the same table, he plays aggressive poker pre-flop with a tremendous range..I never know where I am. I usually think he's rasiing into my BB with trash (as per normal) but I don't usually have the stuff to push back...until I do, then I get chips.

I ONLY EVER raise with high pocket pairs (occassionally AK) - everyone knows this 

Longy, I agree with you 100%.

[LuckyLloyd]

Eh, just noticed that OP has 12400 to start the hand? hdgwhdsggdshffghfs

SHOVE OR FOLD PRE. Now that you did limp, when check raised please recheck your hand to confirm that you have teh top pair. Then call.

I actually would be very interested to hear explanations from the two as to why they want to limp in here? Seriously, I wouldn't do what they did like, ever - but there must have been thought processes behind it??

[charmaine]

My thought process.

Stack size so small that one more BB of my stack doesnt make that much diff as the only move I have is all in or fold.

The limp in EP with that stack size screamed of a big hand, and looking at the SB and BB I knew I could see a flop getting 4 to 1. Unless they had a monster that is. At this point I am looking to flop big (not just one pair)

Ok, so now the flop. With 2 hearts on board I would expect a shove from EP with an overpair and a bet from the blinds with 2 pair. When they check I have now convinced myself that 10 J is ahead here. So I bet out half my stack - saying I am not folding for what I have left.

Then comes the CR - immediately I am still convinced I am ahead, but then doubts set in. I go back to my origional assessment of limping with a big PP - or maybe a small PP and has hit a set.

So now I have confused myself. Knowing I should of shoved on this flop and not let myself in this situation.

In the end I rule out an overpair (as I still think he bets the flop) and go for a small pair making a set and him knowing I cannot pass.

I said most of my thoughts outload at the table (trying to get a read). To his credit, he gave nothing away.

So there ya go.

BTW just noticed I am on Charmaine's account but cannot be bothered to type it out again lol

[TightEnd]

When are you going to give Paul lessons Charmaine?

p.s got any spare earplugs?

[M3boy]

When are you going to give Paul lessons Charmaine?

p.s got any spare earplugs?

Come now Mr End - even you must admit you did not need any

[LuckyLloyd]

My thought process.

Stack size so small that one more BB of my stack doesnt make that much diff as the only move I have is all in or fold.

The limp in EP with that stack size screamed of a big hand, and looking at the SB and BB I knew I could see a flop getting 4 to 1. Unless they had a monster that is. At this point I am looking to flop big (not just one pair)

Ok, so now the flop. With 2 hearts on board I would expect a shove from EP with an overpair and a bet from the blinds with 2 pair. When they check I have now convinced myself that 10 J is ahead here. So I bet out half my stack - saying I am not folding for what I have left.

Then comes the CR - immediately I am still convinced I am ahead, but then doubts set in. I go back to my origional assessment of limping with a big PP - or maybe a small PP and has hit a set.

So now I have confused myself. Knowing I should of shoved on this flop and not let myself in this situation.

In the end I rule out an overpair (as I still think he bets the flop) and go for a small pair making a set and him knowing I cannot pass.

I said most of my thoughts outload at the table (trying to get a read). To his credit, he gave nothing away.

So there ya go.

BTW just noticed I am on Charmaine's account but cannot be bothered to type it out again lol

Thanks.

Ok, as you probably realised when typing that out, you essentially overcomplicated a very simple situation. Simply put, after you limp and flop top pair the actual strength of your hand is too great to ever fold that shallow stacked. Irrespective of what you think he has, or might have - you just go back to the most basic level and ship it because top pair isn't a terrible hand.

You are incorrect about preflop IMO. Effective odds preflop are not a justification for playing J10 here. You cannot expect to ever win at showdown unimproved; J10 flops no pair, no draw most of the time; and because of your small stacksize your implied odds for when you hit, get it in and win will not cover the times you miss and fold or the times you hit, get it in and lose anyway.

You can shove though!! Because it is a big enough raise to carry enough Fold equity to fold out some better hands - and J10 has some equity against tight calling ranges. After the limp, there is now 4000 in the pot. Taking that would be huge for you. So it comes down to whether you think UTG is limping a big pair and won't fold; or is limping something like 88 and can fold.

But you just should not limp behind here.

[M3boy]

LuckyLoyd I disagree about limping Preflop.

In a normal comp I would agree, but a good %age of the players are avergae standard in the APAT events - can easily pick up the pot with no hand in position.

[robyong]

I played a hand like this pretty badly in Vegas last year and Greg Raymour said to me that he has one golden rule, "If the bet or call is ever < 33% of your chips whatever the street, you must always push your whole stack in."

Eg. Pot is 3k, you have 9k, you don't bet 3k, you push for all 9k

In this case, M3boy would have won this pot, so I guess the WSOP champ is right sometimes.........

[LuckyLloyd]

LuckyLoyd I disagree about limping Preflop.

In a normal comp I would agree, but a good %age of the players are avergae standard in the APAT events - can easily pick up the pot with no hand in position.

I've played APAT events before. Yes, the standard is terrible. But I'm afraid to say that what makes the standard terrible is the type of weak tight lines and poor shortstack play employed by you and the villian in this hand. Even if you are an astonishingly better post flop player than everyone else at the table you still will be unable to turn a profit from limping J10 behind here. You are too shallow to "outplay" people or get better hands to fold postflop.

And, in any case, given your other posts in this thread you have identified the UTG limper as a thinking player of some abillity. Therefore, I don't think that you can logically say that you expected to be able to will this pot into your stack on most flops. And, given it is an APAT event I think it is probably more profitable to shove preflop here than in most tournaments given that people's calling ranges are going to be so ridiculously narrow.

Ultimately, you can't have it both ways. You can't think "I'll limp because UTG has a big hand"; while also saying "it's ok to limp because I can pick up pots in position a lot on all sorts of boards". In an APAT event I'm shoving J10 here and chuckling to myself after the blinds dwell before folding and telling me they put down AQ or 1010 or something ridiculous.

Good luck.