Tremendous Bluff? Or Not?

[MANTIS01]

Paul, I think the important aspect of this hand is your thought process and how this can hinder you at times.

I think LuckyLloyd is cock on the money with this....

you essentially overcomplicated a very simple situation. Simply put, after you limp and flop top pair the actual strength of your hand is too great to ever fold that shallow stacked. Irrespective of what you think he has, or might have - you just go back to the most basic level and ship it because top pair isn't a terrible hand.

The shortness of your stack takes away the luxury of such indulgent thinking imo. You are required to be more direct and basic with your thinking because needs must and all that. Your stack limits your choices and so you must be firm and direct with your decisions and stick to your guns.

In this hand your plan is to 1. limp looking "to flop big (not just one pair)" but when the flop hits you abandon this plan and one pair is now good enough. So the new plan is 2. Bet out half your stack and not fold but when your oppo plays back at you this plan is now put in question and you finally abandon it as well.

I agree with LuckyLloyd because sometimes a situation leaves you with little or no choice and a very basic strategy is the most appropriate one. I remember a hand you posted a while ago entitled "Making a mistake and face this decision..." where you had a pair of 9's and your plan was to check-raise all-in because you felt you had the best hand...but after you checked your opponent moved all-in and you didn't like it...it put doubt in your mind, you talked yourself out of it and folded the best hand. In all sincerity I think this is an area of your game to have a look at.

[M3boy]

You are correct.

It is, and always has been a week aspect in my game - overthinking and overcomplicating certain situations.

One I am very aware of and working on.

[M3boy]

Just Re Read whole thread.

Many thanks for all the comments - appreciated.

A nice debate as always.

[snoopy1239]

For what it's worth, I think the main problem here is the call on the button rather than the final fold. If you think he is slowplaying aces, then why get involved with a hand as weak as J-T (odds of hitting a better hand are small) and if you think he is weak, then why not push pre-flop?

Nice to see you embraced the comments though, sign of a potentially top notch player.

[turny]

if you put him on a set i suppose you can fold anything else you have the odds to call.

dont think im good enough to pass here whatever, i die with the hand if id played it the same way pre flop(which i doubt but thats not the debate)

[MANTIS01]

I must say I don't mind the pre-flop call.

I think pushing all-in after another short-stack has limped UTG will often prove to be a big mistake so I would rule that option out for starters. You could fold...but you're in a position where you're going to need something to happen soon.

10-J is a long-shot hand whenever you choose to play it. So using UTG as protection...limping into a potentially multi-way pot...with a good drawing hand...and position...seems ideal for the current situation. You could really use a big pot right now and this hand certainly has the potential to do the job for you. The 1,600 you're paying for the flop doesn't significantly change your situation much at all...but hitting the flop hard would! Like I said I think the two short-stacks limping can help to get the cheap multi-way flop you're looking for and which is perfect for this hand.

That said...the mistake comes on the flop imo. You go there hoping to hit big...but you don't. It is now that you must decide if top pair is good enough...you're stack size forces you to. Do you stick with the original plan or decide to commit.

While it may be a quality fold if the stacks were deep...in this particular situation I don't think you have the luxury of such finesse. Most of your chips are in the middle, you're down to the felt, and you've been check-raised all-in by another desperate player on a drawing board. I think that not calling with a winning hand in this tournament situation is a bigger mistake than putting your last few chips in behind on the flop (still with a chance to win). Reading an opponent for a set and folding is an option you are not in a position to take.

Folding here means you will be all-in in the next few hands and you will probably find yourself in a far worse situation than you are now.

[M3boy]

I must say I don't mind the pre-flop call.

I think pushing all-in after another short-stack has limped UTG will often prove to be a big mistake so I would rule that option out for starters. You could fold...but you're in a position where you're going to need something to happen soon.

10-J is a long-shot hand whenever you choose to play it. So using UTG as protection...limping into a potentially multi-way pot...with a good drawing hand...seems ideal for the current situation. You could really use a big pot right now and this hand certainly has the potential to do the job for you. The 1,600 you're paying for the flop doesn't significantly change your situation much at all...but hitting the flop hard would! Like I said I think the two short-stacks limping can help to get the cheap multi-way flop you're looking for and which is perfect for this hand.

That said...the mistake comes on the flop imo. You go there hoping to hit big...but you don't. It is now that you must decide if top pair is good enough...you're stack size forces you to. Do you stick with the original plan or decide to commit.

While it may be a quality fold if the stacks were deep...in this particular situation I don't think you have the luxury of such finesse. Most of your chips are in the middle, you're down to the felt, and you've been check-raised all-in by another desperate player on a drawing board. I think that not calling with a winning hand in this tournament situation is a bigger mistake that putting your last few chips in behind on the flop (still with a chance to win). Reading an opponent for a set and folding is an option you are not in a position to take.

Folding here means you will be all-in in the next few hands and you will probably find yourself in a far worse situation than you are now.

I honestly couldnt put it better myself

[Newmanseye]

Paul I thought you were a much better players than this, I am disappointed.

[M3boy]

Paul I thought you were a much better players than this, I am disappointed.

Disapointed? How?

I have a flaw in my game of over analysing "certain" hands now and again - that I know and can admit

If you thought my game had no flaws, then I am very suprised, but flattered lol

[AlexMartin]

Horrible spot to bluff. Oppo thinks ur passing now?

M3 Remember to keep your lines applicable to the level your opponents are thinking at. Deffo overthought, never knew you made mistakes. % off.

[LuckyLloyd]

I must say I don't mind the pre-flop call.

I think pushing all-in after another short-stack has limped UTG will often prove to be a big mistake so I would rule that option out for starters. You could fold...but you're in a position where you're going to need something to happen soon.

10-J is a long-shot hand whenever you choose to play it. So using UTG as protection...limping into a potentially multi-way pot...with a good drawing hand...and position...seems ideal for the current situation. You could really use a big pot right now and this hand certainly has the potential to do the job for you. The 1,600 you're paying for the flop doesn't significantly change your situation much at all...but hitting the flop hard would! Like I said I think the two short-stacks limping can help to get the cheap multi-way flop you're looking for and which is perfect for this hand.

This is wrong I'm afraid. I don't have the time or patience to disprove it mathmatically right now - but I am failry certain that when one considers the actual strength of J10 in terms of times it flops something; our stacksize; effective odds; implied odds, etc - it can be proven with a high degree of certanity that limping it on the button here loses us chips in the long haul.

[MANTIS01]

Of course LuckyLloyd if you consider that the ONLY reason to play the hand is to hit the flop hard then I agree with you. However, whilst this is the MOST desirable outcome...namely flopping strength and getting business...there is far more to it that just that simple equation (which no doubt could be proved).

Even missing the flop by a mile allows you to explore other possibilities. If it is checked to you...you can use your judgement to see if you can't buy the pot...why not?? I would much prefer to shove a flop that UTG checks to me rather than shove pre-flop against him. Pre-flop he is far more likely to call than after checking the flop imo. So if you factor into the equation all the other possibilities that are out there rather than just the amount of times the cards actually hit for you you get much closer to an accurate assessment of the situation. Yes, the bet is still a long shot but a cheap long odds gamble is worth consideration at this point in the tournament...no doubt.

So if 10-J works for you here it would be difficult to argue taking the gamble was wrong! Like you say most of the time it wont work but the worst case scenario is you drop 1,600 which doesn't really change much at all. The best case scenario is much better....

Unique tournament decisions sometimes come down to more than just mathematics....

[Longy]

Of course LuckyLloyd if you consider that the ONLY reason to play the hand is to hit the flop hard then I agree with you. However, whilst this is the MOST desirable outcome...namely flopping strength and getting business...there is far more to it that just that simple equation (which no doubt could be proved).

Even missing the flop by a mile allows you to explore other possibilities. If it is checked to you...you can use your judgement to see if you can't buy the pot...why not?? I would much prefer to shove a flop that UTG checks to me rather than shove pre-flop against him. Pre-flop he is far more likely to call than after checking the flop imo. So if you factor into the equation all the other possibilities that are out there rather than just the amount of times the cards actually hit for you you get much closer to an accurate assessment of the situation. Yes, the bet is still a long shot but a cheap long odds gamble is worth consideration at this point in the tournament...no doubt.

So if 10-J works for you here it would be difficult to argue taking the gamble was wrong! Like you say most of the time it wont work but the worst case scenario is you drop 1,600 which doesn't really change much at all. The best case scenario is much better....

Unique tournament decisions sometimes come down to more than just mathematics....

Now I'm a mathematical player but i fail to see what you are saying here, are you suggesting that you going to pick up a vibe from the other 3 players in this situation that you can buy the pot with a bet if checked to, is this specific to live play or would you reccommend the same play in an online tournament.

I think as Lloyd has outlined that we are not deep enough to justify limping, you are playing a 4 way pot with a mediocre hand shortstacked. It is a hand that half hits flops and any bet as M3boy found out committs us to the pot as bet folding is a big mistake due to immediate pot odds.

Also this argument but only losing 1600 seems ridiculous as this isn't the point your stack after committing the 1600 to the pot makes the hand extremely hard to play, whereas if you flop a monster you will never get paid enough on average to make up for your investment.

[doubleup]

I think a lot of you are missing a big point here.  Limping is ok as a gambling play i.e. you are willing to put your chips in with a bit of the flop in an effort to double up, knowing that you might be behind.  You can't apply cash game ev principles to tournaments when you have short stacks.

I'm also strongly of the opinion that LeKnave didn't think he was bluffing, but only he can confirm that.

[LuckyLloyd]

I think a lot of you are missing a big point here.  Limping is ok as a gambling play i.e. you are willing to put your chips in with a bit of the flop in an effort to double up, knowing that you might be behind.  You can't apply cash game ev principles to tournaments when you have short stacks.

Every hand of poker you play has to be viewed in light of whether it is plus EV or not. Cash games and tournaments should not be analysed any differently. And btw, if you want to gamble here for chips and a possible double up - I strongly suggest you push preflop.