Hand Late in an mtt last night

[mondatoo]

im check/raising to see where i am imo

I don't like this play at all.If my "quick" maths are right the pots about 110k so you want to check with the intention of raising it if he bets as little as half the pot, a min raise would have you pot committed if he moves over the top.

I agree with mantis and would check (although this seems a bit weak) to see what he does, if he checks i'm check calling the river whatever card comes (unless he makes a crazy bet).If he bets half the pot or less this would make me very worried as it'd look like he wanted a call and with your stack you'd still have 20+bbs so i'd possibly fold in this spot if he overbets it he can probably have all my chips if he's got the goods and a wp to go with it

[AlexMartin]

ugh, i dont like it, but i think its a c/f.

Opponent appears reasonable and will have position on us turn and river. Need more reads but can gather he's fairly tight. The range of hands he flats us with pre that then flats the flop can be narrowed down significantly. Doubt this guy guy is floating us here too often, board is relatively dry and not ideal for funky shit on later streets. The pairs he flatted with pre either have a set or are overpairs with the single exception of 88.

Of all the options available, c/f looks the best. Check/raising is spew, is it for value or are we bluffing him off 1010/JJ? Super-high variance (not that thats always a bad thing) but here i think we are crushed way more than we are ahead. He's rarely drawing on that board as we hold two nines.

b/f is OK but again its hard to see what he calls with pre and on the flop that doesnt have us completely crushed. I dont mind barreling a scare card on the turn, if an A or K pops its prolly fine to fire. But i think pissing away 65k with no plan for the river when he calls is horrid.

bet/calling is horrendous, as we will have to call a river shove and cannot be happy or think we are good hardly ever.

check/calling might be ok v a passive opponent that isnt going to hand-read you well, but v a good opponent its horrible as on the river he is gonna shove 100% of his range.

gr8 hand though Trigg, deffo one of the trickier and more marginal spots we get to look at.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: AlexMartin

check/calling might be ok v a passive opponent that isnt going to hand-read you well, but v a good opponent its horrible as on the river he is gonna shove 100% of his range.

I think a lot of these hands are difficult to answer without context and history as we know. Like I said before I will happily c-bet the nuts on the flop before checking the turn. Mainly to take advantage of this inclination for good players to shove 100% of their range on the river. With this history on show I doubt a good player shoves the river because if his oppo has shown before that a turn check doesn't necessarily mean weakness then a river shove would be crazy. I think if you have shown before that checking does mean you are ready to fold then don't be surprised if your oppo bets 100% of his range. I still can't discount A-K or 8-8, even a smaller pair here. I still think speed and size of oppo's turn bet needs consideration before we decide to fold though.

[AlexMartin]

Posted by: AlexMartin

check/calling might be ok v a passive opponent that isnt going to hand-read you well, but v a good opponent its horrible as on the river he is gonna shove 100% of his range.

I think a lot of these hands are difficult to answer without context and history as we know. Like I said before I will happily c-bet the nuts on the flop before checking the turn. Mainly to take advantage of this inclination for good players to shove 100% of their range on the river. With this history on show I doubt a good player shoves the river because if his oppo has shown before that a turn check doesn't necessarily mean weakness then a river shove would be crazy. I think if you have shown before that checking does mean you are ready to fold then don't be surprised if your oppo bets 100% of his range. I still can't discount A-K or 8-8, even a smaller pair here. I still think speed and size of oppo's turn bet needs consideration before we decide to fold though.

yeah, i do agree that it does depend a lot on oppos turn bet sizing and timing, but it is pretty damn hard for us to be infront. surely AK gets it in pre. Checking is most deffo the right way forward though, as the hands we are beating should just try to get to shodown cheaply. nice post mantis though.

[MANTIS01]

Posted by: AlexMartin

surely AK gets it in pre

action man raises to 20k pre from a stack of 256k and the tight ABC player who wants to get involved in this hand has 577k. These stacks are plenty big enough for a tight A-K to flat here with position. He might even pick up a squeeze from one of the later players, see what action man does before it gets back to him, then decide. If you add to this the fact that the only time this guy did raise action man, he quickly jammed all-in, flatting with A-K could be quite appealing for this guy. Calling action man's standard c-bet would be in keeping with his non-committal approach to the hand. Bad play I think, but quite possible. So if we're too keen to c-fold then his bad play suddenly becomes a pretty good float and I don't want that. Agreed that we are in a very foggy situation here though.

[mondatoo]

Very good PHA this one

[action man]

2nd part coming up later

[NoflopsHomer]

ugh, i dont like it, but i think its a c/f.

Opponent appears reasonable and will have position on us turn and river. Need more reads but can gather he's fairly tight. The range of hands he flats us with pre that then flats the flop can be narrowed down significantly. Doubt this guy guy is floating us here too often, board is relatively dry and not ideal for funky shit on later streets. The pairs he flatted with pre either have a set or are overpairs with the single exception of 88.

Of all the options available, c/f looks the best. Check/raising is spew, is it for value or are we bluffing him off 1010/JJ? Super-high variance (not that thats always a bad thing) but here i think we are crushed way more than we are ahead. He's rarely drawing on that board as we hold two nines.

b/f is OK but again its hard to see what he calls with pre and on the flop that doesnt have us completely crushed. I dont mind barreling a scare card on the turn, if an A or K pops its prolly fine to fire. But i think pissing away 65k with no plan for the river when he calls is horrid.

bet/calling is horrendous, as we will have to call a river shove and cannot be happy or think we are good hardly ever.

check/calling might be ok v a passive opponent that isnt going to hand-read you well, but v a good opponent its horrible as on the river he is gonna shove 100% of his range.

gr8 hand though Trigg, deffo one of the trickier and more marginal spots we get to look at.

This.

[MANTIS01]

I wonder if the cautious "our oppo could well have a set" mentality would be as strong if we substitute our 9-9 for A-A? If we had A-A and c-betted the same flop would our thoughts be orientated aroung check-folding the turn if our oppo called? I don't think they would and this bothers me. We are more focussed on sets because we reasonably assume big pairs raise pre (this player has shown he does this). The chances our oppo has a set are the same whether we have 9-9 or A-A and we lose the same amount. Do people c-fold their Aces in this same situation? If not how can we say c-folding nines is good because our oppo has a set? I appreciate he could have a bigger pair but I also appreciate he could have a smaller one. The % of chips he is putting in compared to his stack still suggests unpaired over-cards are quite possible.

[action man]

i was really stuck on the turn, and think i made a bad bet because i didnt know where the hell i was in the hand.
Is it too weak c/folding turn? if we do this are we exploitable to regular floats?

PokerStars Game #18682585912: Tournament #94741694, $50+$5 Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (4000/8000) - 2008/07/08 - 20:36:59 (ET)
Table '94741694 12' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: RiVeRs HoMe (658184 in chips)
Seat 2: ThEcLaiMEer (256265 in chips)
Seat 4: Lustcarr (577431 in chips)
Seat 7: Swansen (541583 in chips)
Seat 8: Mixclusive (165302 in chips)
Seat 9: ioalou (416780 in chips)
RiVeRs HoMe: posts the ante 800
ThEcLaiMEer: posts the ante 800
Lustcarr: posts the ante 800
Swansen: posts the ante 800
Mixclusive: posts the ante 800
ioalou: posts the ante 800
Mixclusive: posts small blind 4000
ioalou: posts big blind 8000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ThEcLaiMEer [ ]
RiVeRs HoMe: folds
ThEcLaiMEer: raises 12250 to 20250
Lustcarr: calls 20250
Swansen: folds
Mixclusive: folds
ioalou: folds
*** FLOP *** [ ]
ThEcLaiMEer: bets 32000
Lustcarr: calls 32000
*** TURN *** [ ] []
ThEcLaiMEer: bets 64000
Lustcarr: calls 64000
*** RIVER *** [ ] []

[Royal Flush]

Valooo shove

My guess is you c/f though

[MANTIS01]

Now we have arrived at the river I like the check suggestion on the turn even more. Why did we bet the turn again? We knew better hands probably wouldn't fold. So did we bet for value? If we did then of course pushing is going to maximize this value betting strat. But I wouldn't be pushing with any confidence in this situation. The problem is that we have half our starting stack in there and are not much closer to the truth with regard to our oppos hand. But the reason we have half our stack in there is because we put it in there by choice. And why did we do that?

The reason is this....

Posted by: mondatoo

I agree with mantis and would check (although this seems a bit weak)

Posted by: action man

Is it too weak c/folding turn?

A lot of players imo have this notion that if you check you are weak. Or a check and a fold should go hand in hand. Why? If you c-bet the nuts and then check the turn are you weak? Would you feel weak? I think if you have a rough idea of where you are in a hand and exercise your option to check then this shouldn't automatically make you feel weak. If you play poker with one set strat that means you c-bet always and then check when you are ready to give the hand up then you would feel like this. But if you mix your play about to keep your oppo guessing, sometimes bet, sometimes check, then you will be infinitely harder to read. If your oppo then connects your checks with certain weakness then he will be making a mistake, and this is what you want.

By betting on every street in order to not appear "weak" you have now inflated the pot to beyond the likelihood that you have the best hand. Your hand is not weak and had showdown value, but now because there is so much in the pot (because you put it there) a bluff is very likely if you check because the risk is very worthwhile. If you mix your play up you don't feel such an inclination to avoid checking and your oppo wont feel such an inclination to bet as an auto response to your check. Just to keep firing on this dry board has turned a genuine hand into a bluff. Nobody is value betting with confidence here. 8-9 just got there as did 5-5 so I don't know what we beat, but I'm sure it's going to cost you all your chips if you want to find out.

[DungBeetle]

Good post Mr Mantis

[portfolio]

Oooooooh i remember this hand! An absolute stinker. Did he tell u what he had after he got knocked out Rick?

in this hand or later?

tough  spot,

but what on earth where you hoping to achieve with the gayhe 1.5 bb raise in the first place?

[MANTIS01]

I believe the gayhe raise was 2.5 bb, unless we are back to this I call youz and I raise youz business