Tales from the Toon. The ups and downs of an NUFC supporter....

[dino1980]

Monda,

I haven't read Fooled By Randomness but this is a quote from an article about luck in football by Jonathan Wilson, "Luck is the great unspoken in football, playing a far larger part than is usually admitted. A mathematician at All Souls College, Oxford, calculated that even to cancel out the impact of opponents' form (ie, it is easier to play a team after they have just lost four games than when they have just won four games), a season would need to be seven times longer than it is at present. One moment of good luck can give a player a surge of confidence, add an extra fraction of determination and decisiveness to his game; one moment of bad luck can have the opposite effect."

[mondatoo]

I'm ofc not debating that there is luck in football, or that we've been lucky this season, we have been. That wasn't what Keith was saying though.

[pleno1]

fwiw i have said way into pre season when we lost the so called better of our players that i tipped us for greatness this season. anyone who knows me knows im actually a huge pessimist.

Guthrie has been injured Dino, he was behind Cabaye in pecking order initially, worked hard and has had like 4 or 5 mom performances since.

[pleno1]

Our performance this season:

Haven't been below 7th all year.

[pleno1]

I was at the game and was hugely impressed with Newcastle.

The speed at which they shut down and denied space in midfield and defence was very impressive and in my opinion a massive contributing factor to their victory.  Tiote Guttierez and Colloccini were immense in this area.  Although Rooney, Berbatov et al were pretty rotten they were made to look worse by these boys.

They are very much a team built on a solid foundation with a real potency on the counter attack. Ba is one of the best I have seen at holding the ball up, committing defenders then slotting a pass to a teammate in space.  Ameobi is like a lump of concrete but fair play he puts himself about.  Absolutely zero spacial awareness or movement though.  They need better to support Ba and Best is not the man.

Santon looks a real class act and it'll be interesting to see what Pardew does when he has a full compliment of midfielders available and R. Taylor maybe isn't the best bet at right mid.  Can't really drop Taylor but Santon needs to play imo.  Thoughts?

Great game. Ba, Cabaye, Tiote, Colocini, Krul - superb backbone to the team.

Would have had a chance of finishing above Chelsea if you didn't lose Ba for a month.

Best game I've watched as a neutral this season. You have the makings of an excellent side.

Krul was seemingly quiet but was very competant on Free Kicks And Corners

A very solid unit that could be a real threat this season if they spend big on a striker to play along side Ba...Somebody in the Dean Sturridge or  Javier Hernandez mould
[/quote]

When you lot signed Santon I was shocked he went there. The guy is absolute class and needs regular games.

Demba Ba put on the most complete centre forward play I've seen all season.

You really do have an excellent side up there.

It's not only me Keith btw...

Since then we have signed a prolific 10m goalscorer.

[pleno1]

Also, one last one from me. Our team is basically all under 26, we have bought young players and building a great team.

Lets look at our competition who are all slowly but surely breaking up as teams or not having the energy to play 90 minutes anymore/injured alot

Man Utd - Carrick, Rio, possibly Vidic, Scholes (again), Giggs, Evra and Berba. (Backbone of team)

Chelsea - Terry, Lampard, Drogba, Bosingwa, Cole and a long term replacement for Cech. (Backbone of team)

Arsenal - RVP's contract situation + many players not really playing to a top four standard consistently. (RVP = Arsenal)

Spurs - Probably the best placed to continue for the next few years without massive investment and will have massive funds to do so if/when Bale or Modric go.

Liverpool - Gerrard, Carragher, Kuyt and Bellamy all finished within two years pretty much. (Backbone of team)

Citeh - Irrelevant as they'll throw money at anyone who gets three MoM's in a row anyway.

[c4ught]

So going forward for the next 3-4 seasons you think the above teams are your competition?

With Ashley running the club your expecting to be challenging for champions league?

I think the clubs you mention above will all spend enough money to make it a big longshot that Newcastle make the champions league! Cant see Ashley stumping up the cash that is needed.

[Acidmouse]

Villa should have been 2-3 up at half time, the defence was getting ripped to bits. Just after the Ba goal pardew was going mental at the defence to not get caught out again. Saying that you make your own luck. Newcastle from Pardews leadership seems to have got the team bang on form right now, the team much better then what I would class as average prem players bar 2-3 stars. Didn't think it was possible at the start of the season.

[The Camel]

Tiote and Colo are also very good players, Colo had his 2nd bad game of the season today so I disagree with you but anyways...

Something I'd rather discuss is this "Have you read a book called "Fooled by Randomness"? It could have been dedicated to Newcastle supporters this season". You obv know your stuff so I'm sure you aren't just saying this due to media perception so where have you witnessed this ? Of the 50+ Newcastle fans I can think of, I know 2 (1 being Pads) who haven't spent the whole season, and still are, waiting for the bubble to burst. So where do you get this from ? It isn't itt as only Pads thinks we could do better than top 7, which from the start we had is not an unrealistic goal due to the competition. It is beyond tilting how many people come out with such rubbish like the Geordie's expect so much etc etc, it really is a fallacy and it hasn't been like that up here pretty much since the day Sir Bobby got sacked.

I've seen Newcastle play maybe 8 times this season. And they were flattered by the final result on just about every occasion.

I think Newcastle supporters have got every right to expect a top 4 team. They are fantastic. Best in the league, bar none.

But you will never get Champions League football with Ashley in charge. You have no chance. Every time you have a good promising player, he is sold.

What price Krul and Ba have gone by the start of next season? (Ba might stay due his injury doubts - but Krul will be at Man Utd I think)

[mondatoo]

Tiote and Colo are also very good players, Colo had his 2nd bad game of the season today so I disagree with you but anyways...

Something I'd rather discuss is this "Have you read a book called "Fooled by Randomness"? It could have been dedicated to Newcastle supporters this season". You obv know your stuff so I'm sure you aren't just saying this due to media perception so where have you witnessed this ? Of the 50+ Newcastle fans I can think of, I know 2 (1 being Pads) who haven't spent the whole season, and still are, waiting for the bubble to burst. So where do you get this from ? It isn't itt as only Pads thinks we could do better than top 7, which from the start we had is not an unrealistic goal due to the competition. It is beyond tilting how many people come out with such rubbish like the Geordie's expect so much etc etc, it really is a fallacy and it hasn't been like that up here pretty much since the day Sir Bobby got sacked.

I've seen Newcastle play maybe 8 times this season. And they were flattered by the final result on just about every occasion.

I think Newcastle supporters have got every right to expect a top 4 team. They are fantastic. Best in the league, bar none.

But you will never get Champions League football with Ashley in charge. You have no chance. Every time you have a good promising player, he is sold.

What price Krul and Ba have gone by the start of next season? (Ba might stay due his injury doubts - but Krul will be at Man Utd I think)

Nice fade of the question 

I'm not sure we are best in the lge but in general we do give decent support to our team.

We are miles away from Champions League and it's not something I'm thinking about at all. I've been Ashley's biggest critic, and apart from having some joke company selling tickets for them when the moron gives me the wrong information, I have no complaints. I've just woken up but the only good promising player I'd say we've sold is Carroll which was impossible to turn down. Decent chance they could both be sold in the Summer, everyone has a price.

[pleno1]

We are without doubt the most shrewd team in the transfer market atm.

We sold Carroll for 35m and built a whole new team. I have backed Ashley all the way over the last 2 seasons and trust in him so much, lots of arguments with family & friends, he will make the right decisions. He will get players for the right price and sell players for the right price. You say we will always sell our best players apart from Carroll who else have we let go? Enrique is only one and we got 5m when his contract was running out and he didn't want to stay.

Barton/Nolan were not anywhere near our best players and wouldn't get a look in any-more, they are championship quality.

We have no right to expect top 4 because we don't have an owner who is going to spend ridiculous amounts on players like City, United and Chelsea.

We are happy if we are producing good players who love playing for the team and have a good go at qualifying for Europe, the fact that if we win next weekend we are 3 points off 3rd is just an absolute bonus and something that all the players and staff deserve for their fantastic effort.

FWIW if we had Robson or Keegan as our manager atm we would without doubt be no higher than 10th.

[pleno1]

Also re Guthrie, I saw that he got MOTM in most newspapers/forums today. Also labelled "the most underrated midfielder in the premiership" and when watching with Man U fans yesterday they said "wow that is exactly what we need".

[action man]

i didnt have any interest in the newc v villa game apart from a deep rooted hatred towards pardew
i kinda liked villa for the game, was on the phone to my mate for some of the game, we both said at the same time, "newcastle run good"  and they have basically. Deflections, breaks in the box, they are overachieving for sure. That said i like the club/fans always great welcoming away supporters in my experience

[pleno1]

i didnt have any interest in the newc v villa game apart from a deep rooted hatred towards pardew
i kinda liked villa for the game, was on the phone to my mate for some of the game, we both said at the same time, "newcastle run good"  and they have basically. Deflections, breaks in the box, they are overachieving for sure. That said i like the club/fans always great welcoming away supporters in my experience

Perhaps its just variance evening out, we had so many own goals/deflections last year.

Also I have said in the thread, 8 penalties against, 2 for, thats not really running terribly well.

Where does the hatred for Pardew come from btw?

[pleno1]

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