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Poker Hand Analysis
Bottom Set
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Topic: Bottom Set (Read 8188 times)
TightEnd
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Hero Member
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Posts: I am a geek!!
Bottom Set
«
on:
January 18, 2009, 06:54:05 PM »
Live £100 MTT
Level 1 25-50
Villain 6,000 old school reasonably conservative
Hero 7,700
Villian limps UTG, 2 further limps and Hero limps on button with
blinds complete/check
flop
Checked by blinds and Villian to LAG Aggro MP limper who makes it 200
Folded to Hero who makes it 800
Villian check re-raises to 1600
folded to Hero, action on him
Given type of Villain and betting pattern, can this be a reluctant fold? Or is it a routine push?
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DaveShoelace
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #1 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:14:26 PM »
Certainly ain't a fold, he could easily be going nuts with 77-TT and even now and then the 'old school' guys will limp with kings-aces.
Pushing isnt awful, because I can still see him calling you with an overpair a lot of the time here and you do have outs for the rare times he has 45. I actually like calling his check raise and giving him rope/reassessing on the turn.
If he turns over a straight or better set then you were just unlucky
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NoflopsHomer
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #2 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:18:28 PM »
Flat, shove turn.
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TightEnd
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #3 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:20:21 PM »
Quote from: DaveShoelace on January 18, 2009, 07:14:26 PM
Certainly ain't a fold, he could easily be going nuts with 77-TT and even now and then the 'old school' guys will limp with kings-aces.
Pushing isnt awful, because I can still see him calling you with an overpair a lot of the time here and you do have outs for the rare times he has 45. I actually like calling his check raise and giving him rope/reassessing on the turn.
If he turns over a straight or better set then you were just unlucky
I understand giving him rope, but what is there likely to be, to reassess the turn from current thoughts?
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GlasgowBandit
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #4 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:20:23 PM »
Quote from: NoflopsHomer on January 18, 2009, 07:18:28 PM
Flat, shove turn.
this for me. I am never folding here.
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DaveShoelace
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #5 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:22:11 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on January 18, 2009, 07:20:21 PM
Quote from: DaveShoelace on January 18, 2009, 07:14:26 PM
Certainly ain't a fold, he could easily be going nuts with 77-TT and even now and then the 'old school' guys will limp with kings-aces.
Pushing isnt awful, because I can still see him calling you with an overpair a lot of the time here and you do have outs for the rare times he has 45. I actually like calling his check raise and giving him rope/reassessing on the turn.
If he turns over a straight or better set then you were just unlucky
I understand giving him rope, but what is there likely to be, to reassess the turn from current thoughts?
Dunno actually, skip the reassess bit, im so used to writing the words 'reassess the turn' it just happened
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boldie
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Don't make me mad
Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #6 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:23:51 PM »
Quote from: NoflopsHomer on January 18, 2009, 07:18:28 PM
Flat, shove turn.
This
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gatso
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Let's go round again
Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #7 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:29:26 PM »
Quote from: NoflopsHomer on January 18, 2009, 07:18:28 PM
Flat, shove turn.
this
when you limped botom set was what you were hoping for, you've got it so let's get those chips
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Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #8 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:49:01 PM »
Why did you make it 800 on the flop?
BTW have to say tighty you post the best hands for analysis
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GreekStein
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #9 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:49:35 PM »
Hmm this is close but I don't see why fold can't be a real consideration here. Is he a decent nit? Played together before? Does he know your game?
Against a conservative villain at the 25-50 level when it's gone bet-raise-reraise in a limped pot I see him showing up with 66 or 33 here more often than a limp with AA or KK. I'm assuming he never limps utg with 45. Best case scenario is AA or KK.
One other consideration for me here is the structure of the tourney. If its really fast I felt here if not I think folding is ok.
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TightEnd
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #10 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:52:28 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on January 18, 2009, 07:49:01 PM
Why did you make it 800 on the flop?
BTW have to say tighty you post the best hands for analysis
800, I think I can get the LAG, Dave Courtney, to come along with me and am not that scared of losing him (as it happens he was intending to reraise me all in with the bare 6! until the check raise comes)
seriously the best hands?! or ironic humour!?
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TightEnd
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #11 on:
January 18, 2009, 07:54:36 PM »
Quote from: GreekStein on January 18, 2009, 07:49:35 PM
Hmm this is close but I don't see why fold can't be a real consideration here. Is he a decent nit? Played together before? Does he know your game?
Against a conservative villain at the 25-50 level when it's gone bet-raise-reraise in a limped pot I see him showing up with 66 or 33 here more often than a limp with AA or KK. I'm assuming he never limps utg with 45. Best case scenario is AA or KK.
One other consideration for me here is the structure of the tourney. If its really fast I felt here if not I think folding is ok.
its a slow comp
I disregarded 45
33,66 or an overpair for me..but he checks an overpair when checked to on the flop, after limping utg? I didn't think so
At the table I seriously considered a fold given this.
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Royal Flush
Hero Member
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #12 on:
January 18, 2009, 08:02:21 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on January 18, 2009, 07:52:28 PM
Quote from: Royal Flush on January 18, 2009, 07:49:01 PM
Why did you make it 800 on the flop?
BTW have to say tighty you post the best hands for analysis
800, I think I can get the LAG,
Dave
Courtney
, to come along with me and am not that scared of losing him (as it happens he was intending to reraise me all in with the bare 6! until the check raise comes)
seriously the best hands?! or ironic humour!?
Being serious you always present the OP well and the debate is always indepth, even if the hands appear at first to be 'simple'
If someone is new to PHA your threads are the best 1's for them to read imo
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MC
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Online
Posts: 6260
Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #13 on:
January 18, 2009, 08:08:35 PM »
Quote from: DaveShoelace on January 18, 2009, 07:14:26 PM
Certainly ain't a fold, he could easily be going nuts with 77-TT and even now and then the 'old school' guys will limp with kings-aces.
Pushing isnt awful, because I can still see him calling you with an overpair a lot of the time here and you do have outs for the rare times he has 45. I actually like calling his check raise and giving him rope/reassessing on the turn.
If he turns over a straight or better set then you were just unlucky
^^Agree with this...
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GreekStein
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Re: Bottom Set
«
Reply #14 on:
January 18, 2009, 08:24:22 PM »
Quote from: TightEnd on January 18, 2009, 07:54:36 PM
Quote from: GreekStein on January 18, 2009, 07:49:35 PM
Hmm this is close but I don't see why fold can't be a real consideration here. Is he a decent nit? Played together before? Does he know your game?
Against a conservative villain at the 25-50 level when it's gone bet-raise-reraise in a limped pot I see him showing up with 66 or 33 here more often than a limp with AA or KK. I'm assuming he never limps utg with 45. Best case scenario is AA or KK.
One other consideration for me here is the structure of the tourney. If its really fast I felt here if not I think folding is ok.
its a slow comp
I disregarded 45
33,66 or an overpair for me..but he checks an overpair when checked to on the flop, after limping utg? I didn't think so
At the table I seriously considered a fold given this.
I agree that he probably leads with an overpair on this flop. I can't see an overpair going mad and if he knows you at all he wont be liking Aces at all in this spot. Looks like he's limped with 33 or 66 and hit the jackpot.
It's horrible folding a set on a board like this in live poker but his hand stinks of a monster here. FWIW I dont ever remember folding a set live.
Maybe I'm completely wrong but all I have to go on is the assumption that this guy is a decent tight old guy who has played the game a bit and therefore wont be donking off here with one pair, whether it be AA or 77. If he knows how tight you are makes even more of a case for folding
Really curious to know what Flushy's decision would be.
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