Tricky turn decision...

[MC]

Heads up sit and go...

I think you'll agree calling isn't really an option...it allows to many draws to get there, and just delays the decision to the river

So do you think this is a shove or pass?

Only read I have on player is a note that a lead out means he has some part of the board, but this ranges from bottom pair up...


***** Hand 1432087129 *****
15.00/30.00 Texas Hold'em (No Limit ) - Thursday, January 29, 2009 1:56:25 PM
Holdem (Real /Tournament )
Seat 1: lullaby (1485.00)
Seat 2: Atkinator- (1515.00)
Atkinator- post SB 15.00
lullaby post BB 30.00
** Deal **
lullaby [N/A, N/A]
Atkinator- [, ]
*** Bet Round 1 ***
Atkinator- Raise to 90.00
lullaby Call 90.00
*** Flop(Board): *** : [, , ]
*** Bet Round 2 ***
lullaby Check
Atkinator- Bet 120.00
lullaby Call 120.00
*** Turn(Board): *** : [, , , ]
*** Bet Round 3 ***
lullaby Bet 300.00
Atkinator- ..........

[Royal Flush]

I think you'll agree calling isn't really an option...

Why?

[MANTIS01]

I think you'll agree calling isn't really an option...it allows to many draws to get there, and just delays the decision to the river

Yeah, not sure I agree with that dude, it'll be interesting to see what other people think. Any draw is already there isn't it, and if he does have a single spade then I'm willing to bet he doesn't hit it on the river by calling his turn bet. If you push on the turn then the flush, straight, set or even two pair will prob call but every hand you beat folds. If you call the turn then on the river most of these hands will slow down and check cos they want to show down. Calling the turn also invites the bluff continuation if this is what the guy's up to.

[gatso]

So do you think this is a shove or pass?

no

[AlexMartin]

i agree with you op MC, i hate calling here. Deeper yeah call is deffo best, here we have the best hand so often but opponents equity is gonna be pretty good.  after investing 1/3 of our stack with this hand we are pretty much pc, opponent probably wont bluff the river oop but might make a mistake and call with improper odds. we need to shove to protect our hand.

p.s can you pm me about how much i owe you for stuff and details. cheers m8.

[MANTIS01]

i agree with you op MC, i hate calling here. Deeper yeah call is deffo best, here we have the best hand so often but opponents equity is gonna be pretty good.  after investing 1/3 of our stack with this hand we are pretty much pc, opponent probably wont bluff the river oop but might make a mistake and call with improper odds. we need to shove to protect our hand.

Don't know we can be sure what sort of mistake villain is going to make in preference to another really. He wont mistake-bluff-shove the river but will mistake-call with worse on the turn. What I do know is you're not protecting your hand when you shove and he snaps with better...better than can mistake-check the river and keep us in the game. The guy either has the flush or is representing the flush...this is the strat he is using. If he has the flush we lose whatever. If he is representing the flush why do anything to disrupt this mindset? Cos he's not suddenly forgetting his strat come the river....and I'd bet he doesn't improve to beat us in the long run when the last card drops...so no need to protect imo.

[MC]

i agree with you op MC, i hate calling here. Deeper yeah call is deffo best.

This was my thought as regards calling whilst playing the hand... that the stacks were just too shallow.

TBH all 3 options have their drawbacks, that's why I posted this...

But perhaps I shouldn't rule calling out as an option.

So we're calling a river bet/shove if a non-spade hits?

Have to say villain's line looks strong to me. Like he's protecting against the flush hitting?

[MANTIS01]

Default HU villain is someone there to play imo. And the only info you have confirms he bets out with a wide range in this format. For someone who's there to play the deuce of spades is a peach of a card to bet 300 at imo. 1 pair/1 spade combos can make this bet for sure, but he could bet here with atc really. MC says his bet looks strong, which makes it a good move for any decent player betting a wide range. He can't really CRAI because hero gets pc lots this shallow so the strat fails, and sometimes hero jams anyway making that move impossible. Checking is -EV for a wide range so the guy bets. There's a lot of reasons and a lot of hands he bets 300 with, especially in an aggressive format. This makes calling 300 that A-J wins ok. The 300 also gets you to showdown a lot of the time vs pair-combo hands that don't hit. You still win the pot vs smaller pairs but save money vs better hands like K-x. I think K-x calls if you push the turn and this is a +1 for the calling option.

As to calling the river bet. Well first he's got to bet the river. And then I can't see showdown value hands vb shoving in this situation. So if he shoved I would snap his bluffing fecking hand off. +2 for calling the turn. If he bet 1/2 pot...i would just call

[totalise]

i agree with you op MC, i hate calling here. Deeper yeah call is deffo best, here we have the best hand so often but opponents equity is gonna be pretty good.  after investing 1/3 of our stack with this hand we are pretty much pc, opponent probably wont bluff the river oop but might make a mistake and call with improper odds. we need to shove to protect our hand.

Don't know we can be sure what sort of mistake villain is going to make in preference to another really. He wont mistake-bluff-shove the river but will mistake-call with worse on the turn. What I do know is you're not protecting your hand when you shove and he snaps with better...better than can mistake-check the river and keep us in the game. The guy either has the flush or is representing the flush...this is the strat he is using. If he has the flush we lose whatever. If he is representing the flush why do anything to disrupt this mindset? Cos he's not suddenly forgetting his strat come the river....and I'd bet he doesn't improve to beat us in the long run when the last card drops...so no need to protect imo.

its a HU sng, they aren't trying to rep flush's, they are trying to rep top pair, which is the nuts in HU sng's, and yes, the frequency with which people 3barrel bluff boards is a lot lower then the times they semi-bluff turns with hands that have just about enough equity to call if you jam, and I even heard once upon a time that some pokr players actually LOSE MONEY! and if they do, they might even be more likely to call a turn jam with hands that shouldn't be calling.

He wont mistake-bluff-shove the river but will mistake-call with worse on the turn. What I do know is you're not protecting your hand when you shove and he snaps with better.

think of it this way, a lot lot lot of players in these sngs will bluff twice, but wont risk their entire stack on a move, so when they are bluffing, they wont bet the river, so raising the turn protects X% of equity in the pot we have compared to flat-calling not making us anymore money. Raising also allows us to collect X% equity vs whatever segments of their range they have that are semi-bluffing this turn with a draw. Maybe we jam and we walk into your hypothetical better, but if we are committed to calling any river bet anyways, we lose exactly the same vs this hypothetical better no matter what way we play it, so you should remove those kind of hands from his range instantly... just assume to yourself that if he has KQ/set etc, we lose our stack no matter what happens, and then focus on how we make more money vs his range of hands that AREN'T >KQ etc, and then focus on his semi-bluff range that will tardo call the river vs his pseudo-air range that will bet the turn and never bet the river unless they hit their miracle.

[MANTIS01]

i agree with you op MC, i hate calling here. Deeper yeah call is deffo best, here we have the best hand so often but opponents equity is gonna be pretty good.  after investing 1/3 of our stack with this hand we are pretty much pc, opponent probably wont bluff the river oop but might make a mistake and call with improper odds. we need to shove to protect our hand.

Don't know we can be sure what sort of mistake villain is going to make in preference to another really. He wont mistake-bluff-shove the river but will mistake-call with worse on the turn. What I do know is you're not protecting your hand when you shove and he snaps with better...better than can mistake-check the river and keep us in the game. The guy either has the flush or is representing the flush...this is the strat he is using. If he has the flush we lose whatever. If he is representing the flush why do anything to disrupt this mindset? Cos he's not suddenly forgetting his strat come the river....and I'd bet he doesn't improve to beat us in the long run when the last card drops...so no need to protect imo.

its a HU sng, they aren't trying to rep flush's, they are trying to rep top pair, which is the nuts in HU sng's, and yes, the frequency with which people 3barrel bluff boards is a lot lower then the times they semi-bluff turns with hands that have just about enough equity to call if you jam, and I even heard once upon a time that some pokr players actually LOSE MONEY! and if they do, they might even be more likely to call a turn jam with hands that shouldn't be calling.

He wont mistake-bluff-shove the river but will mistake-call with worse on the turn. What I do know is you're not protecting your hand when you shove and he snaps with better.

think of it this way, a lot lot lot of players in these sngs will bluff twice, but wont risk their entire stack on a move, so when they are bluffing, they wont bet the river, so raising the turn protects X% of equity in the pot we have compared to flat-calling not making us anymore money. Raising also allows us to collect X% equity vs whatever segments of their range they have that are semi-bluffing this turn with a draw. Maybe we jam and we walk into your hypothetical better, but if we are committed to calling any river bet anyways, we lose exactly the same vs this hypothetical better no matter what way we play it, so you should remove those kind of hands from his range instantly... just assume to yourself that if he has KQ/set etc, we lose our stack no matter what happens, and then focus on how we make more money vs his range of hands that AREN'T >KQ etc, and then focus on his semi-bluff range that will tardo call the river vs his pseudo-air range that will bet the turn and never bet the river unless they hit their miracle.

I prefer my version really.

[totalise]

i agree with you op MC, i hate calling here. Deeper yeah call is deffo best, here we have the best hand so often but opponents equity is gonna be pretty good.  after investing 1/3 of our stack with this hand we are pretty much pc, opponent probably wont bluff the river oop but might make a mistake and call with improper odds. we need to shove to protect our hand.

Don't know we can be sure what sort of mistake villain is going to make in preference to another really. He wont mistake-bluff-shove the river but will mistake-call with worse on the turn. What I do know is you're not protecting your hand when you shove and he snaps with better...better than can mistake-check the river and keep us in the game. The guy either has the flush or is representing the flush...this is the strat he is using. If he has the flush we lose whatever. If he is representing the flush why do anything to disrupt this mindset? Cos he's not suddenly forgetting his strat come the river....and I'd bet he doesn't improve to beat us in the long run when the last card drops...so no need to protect imo.

its a HU sng, they aren't trying to rep flush's, they are trying to rep top pair, which is the nuts in HU sng's, and yes, the frequency with which people 3barrel bluff boards is a lot lower then the times they semi-bluff turns with hands that have just about enough equity to call if you jam, and I even heard once upon a time that some pokr players actually LOSE MONEY! and if they do, they might even be more likely to call a turn jam with hands that shouldn't be calling.

He wont mistake-bluff-shove the river but will mistake-call with worse on the turn. What I do know is you're not protecting your hand when you shove and he snaps with better.

think of it this way, a lot lot lot of players in these sngs will bluff twice, but wont risk their entire stack on a move, so when they are bluffing, they wont bet the river, so raising the turn protects X% of equity in the pot we have compared to flat-calling not making us anymore money. Raising also allows us to collect X% equity vs whatever segments of their range they have that are semi-bluffing this turn with a draw. Maybe we jam and we walk into your hypothetical better, but if we are committed to calling any river bet anyways, we lose exactly the same vs this hypothetical better no matter what way we play it, so you should remove those kind of hands from his range instantly... just assume to yourself that if he has KQ/set etc, we lose our stack no matter what happens, and then focus on how we make more money vs his range of hands that AREN'T >KQ etc, and then focus on his semi-bluff range that will tardo call the river vs his pseudo-air range that will bet the turn and never bet the river unless they hit their miracle.

I prefer my version really.

as always.

[MANTIS01]

I don't really see how you can formulate a strat from what 'players' do in a HU sng. What players? Just players yeah? I'm only really interested in this player and what he's doing. When he bets 300 he knows this will be good enough to take down the pot a lot of the time. OP says the bet looks strong and he's thinking about folding. Why does villain look to take down the pot? Prob because his hand isn't good enough to get it in with. So why would this guy call all-in? Cos players do? I think he can bet less to trigger a shove from hero if he wants the chips in, so maybe the bet tells us that's not want he wants. Also I don't get why we're fretting about protecting equity HU. If the guy has us crushed already it don't matter if we shove or not, if he's behind we're a big fav going to the river. I never like pushing all-in when it means we fold out hands we beat and get called by ones we dont, regardless of what players do.

[MC]

Interesting discussion...

I can see merits in both your logic.

Shoving does give a bad player a chance to call with a worse hand; would have to imagine it being a flush draw combo with either pair/gutshot though...

However flatting allows for the bluff shove on the river...which he might well do. It's not really a 3 barrel bluff it's a 2 barrel bluff. I agree that 3 barrel bluffs are reasonably rare, but he's lead out suggests to me he's shoving the river often...

I actually folded. I felt he was strong, I felt calling was wrong, and I didn't like shoving. So in the 30 seconds I had to think it through I let it go having invested fairly little in the pot. Not saying that was necessarily correct, hence the post up...

Have played the guy a few times since, and it turns out he's very aggro.

[Royal Flush]

Interesting discussion...

I can see merits in both your logic.

Shoving does give a bad player a chance to call with a worse hand; would have to imagine it being a flush draw combo with either pair/gutshot though...

However flatting allows for the bluff shove on the river...which he might well do. It's not really a 3 barrel bluff it's a 2 barrel bluff. I agree that 3 barrel bluffs are reasonably rare, but he's lead out suggests to me he's shoving the river often...

I actually folded. I felt he was strong, I felt calling was wrong, and I didn't like shoving. So in the 30 seconds I had to think it through I let it go having invested fairly little in the pot. Not saying that was necessarily correct, hence the post up...

Have played the guy a few times since, and it turns out he's very aggro.

Folding > shoving this spot imo

I would personally call and fold to a river bet.