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Poker Hand Analysis
WCOOP Main Event hand
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Topic: WCOOP Main Event hand (Read 9910 times)
Ironside
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Posts: 41861
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #30 on:
September 24, 2009, 02:07:03 PM »
Quote from: BulldozerD on September 24, 2009, 02:03:47 PM
Quote from: Ironside on September 24, 2009, 01:53:54 PM
only time you every check the river here is if your playing a donkey he sees the check as weakness and a chance to steal
there is no checking in this hand, we have position
i meant as villain
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lend me a beer and I'll lend you my ear
AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #31 on:
September 24, 2009, 02:44:58 PM »
Quote from: Royal Flush on September 24, 2009, 11:46:05 AM
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 23, 2009, 11:46:44 PM
your range looks like AK/AQ/QQ a lot.
This isnt 5-10 a European site, this is a $5kfo on PokerStars.
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 23, 2009, 11:46:44 PM
especially in early stages when there is abundant dead wood that overplays marginal holdings.
Again plz play this event!
Villain is excellent? This is a super tough 5k event?! (grats on cash btw) That being so, villain can most def call with a super wide range and try to barrel us off. Hero's 3b range is i assume totally UNpolarised and includes a fuckload of 1 pair and no pair hands at least until the turn. Pretty sure a chunk of this field would most def float at least flop w AK/AQ +bdfd and another (smaller chunk) peels turn also. Without reads on villain and his tendencies/donking ranges hu, ill give my thoughts.
I think its a bit of a huge assumption to suggest that:-
a) this guys opening all small pps this early from this position
b) hes calling a 3b OOP v a noted tough player, against whom i guess he realises his implied are significantly hacked off (hes excellent...)
c) he then elects to LEAD a super dry board with a set 3 streets, virtually gauranteeing that hero will never bluff and never get a chance to semi said superdry board.
Ill try to balance the debate:-
a) we have AA, significantly reducing the straight, wheel, betbetbet hands he can have.
b) we are deep, his line is superstrong, hands like 45s/55 (cant remember board now, think it was 234 but u get my drift) he might decide to triple given how by the river, the way we got here makes our hand look like a big pair which could well fold to this heat.
c) has absolutely can be valuetowning himself here with KK, poss QQ also. This is huge.
d) he has to have air at least some of the time
e) people that utilise donkbets often spew
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titaniumbean
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Equity means nothing.
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #32 on:
September 24, 2009, 03:01:06 PM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 24, 2009, 02:44:58 PM
Quote from: Royal Flush on September 24, 2009, 11:46:05 AM
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 23, 2009, 11:46:44 PM
your range looks like AK/AQ/QQ a lot.
This isnt 5-10 a European site, this is a $5kfo on PokerStars.
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 23, 2009, 11:46:44 PM
especially in early stages when there is abundant dead wood that overplays marginal holdings.
Again plz play this event!
Villain is excellent? This is a super tough 5k event?! (grats on cash btw) That being so, villain can most def call with a super wide range and try to barrel us off. Hero's 3b range is i assume totally UNpolarised and includes a fuckload of 1 pair and no pair hands at least until the turn. Pretty sure a chunk of this field would most def float at least flop w AK/AQ +bdfd and another (smaller chunk) peels turn also. Without reads on villain and his tendencies/donking ranges hu, ill give my thoughts.
I think its a bit of a huge assumption to suggest that:-
a) this guys opening all small pps this early from this position
b) hes calling a 3b OOP v a noted tough player, against whom i guess he realises his implied are significantly hacked off (hes excellent...)
c) he then elects to LEAD a super dry board with a set 3 streets, virtually gauranteeing that hero will never bluff and never get a chance to semi said superdry board.
Ill try to balance the debate:-
a) we have AA, significantly reducing the straight, wheel, betbetbet hands he can have.
b) we are deep, his line is superstrong, hands like 45s/55 (cant remember board now, think it was 234 but u get my drift) he might decide to triple given how by the river, the way we got here makes our hand look like a big pair which could well fold to this heat.
c) has absolutely can be valuetowning himself here with KK, poss QQ also. This is huge.
d) he has to have air at least some of the time
e) people that utilise donkbets often spew
I agree with this.
I think that by the river, the bet sizing says alot and it looks like he has a set/2pr for value or pairs +sd's or other big pairs that he is now turning into a bluff once we call the turn.
How would we have played if we had happened to 3 bet 56s or something here ourselves and he'd lead into us on this flop. Is it a case this deep that we should always be flatting the flop regardless of what we have. If he doesn't think small pairs are in our 3 betting range then he can be pretty confident that we dont have a set and so could just have bet the flop with the intention of firing 3 streets.
What would you say your 3 betting range is here Keith, are you 3 betting QQ/AK/AQ/67s etc?
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Royal Flush
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Booooccccceeeeeee
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #33 on:
September 24, 2009, 07:30:21 PM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 24, 2009, 02:44:58 PM
I think its a bit of a huge assumption to suggest that:-
a) this guys opening all small pps this early from this position
b) hes calling a 3b OOP v a noted tough player, against whom i guess he realises his implied are significantly hacked off (hes excellent...)
c) he then elects to LEAD a super dry board with a set 3 streets, virtually gauranteeing that hero will never bluff and never get a chance to semi said superdry board.
Errm yeah most people open pairs, especially in big events.
Yeah usually they would call a 3b sat ~250 deep.
He is trying to get ~100+ BB out of his set, no trying to pick off a CB.
Big tournaments that play super deep like this are not like cash and they are not like regular MTT's (i have found this out the hard way) the 3 assumptions are far more likely than:
He is going to triple barrell a combo hand that missed
He is value towning KK/QQ
He has air (lolz at this one)
Your aversion to donkbets in deep structured MTT's is not to be projected, they are v useful. In the same way i hate 3betting it doesn't mean i rule out my opponents 3 betting!
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[19:44:40] Oracle: WE'RE ALL GOING ON A SPANISH HOLIDAY! TRIGGS STABLES SHIT!
The Camel
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Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #34 on:
September 24, 2009, 07:54:03 PM »
I don't think he has KK, QQ or JJ.
I am pretty sure he would check call with these hands.
The only hands I can beat are 44, 34, 45.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
mondatoo
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Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #35 on:
September 24, 2009, 07:58:05 PM »
Interesting thread,sure prob will ever matter to me but still
Did you fold then keith ?
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action man
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Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #36 on:
September 24, 2009, 08:00:53 PM »
id imagine 99% of the field in this comp will open any pair from any position this deep. I imagine he puts camel on a big pair after his 3x 3bet pre antes. Villain has flopped a set and is trying to get three streets of value imho. For villain to be 3barrell bluffing here to a 3better pre antes in a 5k would be very folly imo. Think hero took the best line.
Do we vbet if checked to on the river?
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The Camel
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Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #37 on:
September 24, 2009, 08:31:41 PM »
Quote from: action man on September 24, 2009, 08:00:53 PM
id imagine 99% of the field in this comp will open any pair from any position this deep. I imagine he puts camel on a big pair after his 3x 3bet pre antes. Villain has flopped a set and is trying to get three streets of value imho. For villain to be 3barrell bluffing here to a 3better pre antes in a 5k would be very folly imo. Think hero took the best line.
Do we vbet if checked to on the river?
Why did he donk if he's flopped a set and puts me on a big pair?
I dunno, maybe raising the flop and folding to a 3 bet was the best line.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
Ironside
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Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #38 on:
September 24, 2009, 09:24:19 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on September 24, 2009, 08:31:41 PM
Quote from: action man on September 24, 2009, 08:00:53 PM
id imagine 99% of the field in this comp will open any pair from any position this deep. I imagine he puts camel on a big pair after his 3x 3bet pre antes. Villain has flopped a set and is trying to get three streets of value imho. For villain to be 3barrell bluffing here to a 3better pre antes in a 5k would be very folly imo. Think hero took the best line.
Do we vbet if checked to on the river?
Why did he donk if he's flopped a set and puts me on a big pair?
I dunno, maybe raising the flop and folding to a 3 bet was the best line.
raising flop or turn and folding to a 3 bet works better for me than folding river
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LuckyLloyd
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Posts: 625
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #39 on:
September 24, 2009, 10:01:41 PM »
Quote from: LeKnave on September 24, 2009, 01:41:08 PM
Quote from: Ironside on September 24, 2009, 01:21:12 PM
Quote from: LeKnave on September 24, 2009, 01:15:46 PM
Quote from: Ironside on September 24, 2009, 01:11:21 PM
Quote from: LeKnave on September 24, 2009, 01:07:24 PM
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 23, 2009, 11:46:44 PM
your range looks like AK/AQ/QQ a lot.
huh?! it looks more like we have exactly what we have. I doubt he's going to try make us fold this, so i fold.
how does our hand look like AA we 3b pre called post and on the turn
range is huge at levels i usually play
this isnt a torny u usually play tho..
i know but u saying people at this level always have a set here and never TT-KK where they like to see a flop without an ace then start the betting
id weight his range to a set or air. and id guess itd be too reckless to empty the clip with air at this stage where camels range is really KK+ unless they have sufficient history which would make him think he has a good % chance of making him fold out those hands. as i dont think thats the case, you gotta fold.
Good post.
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All glory comes from daring to begin
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LuckyLloyd
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Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #40 on:
September 24, 2009, 10:09:04 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on September 24, 2009, 08:31:41 PM
Quote from: action man on September 24, 2009, 08:00:53 PM
id imagine 99% of the field in this comp will open any pair from any position this deep. I imagine he puts camel on a big pair after his 3x 3bet pre antes. Villain has flopped a set and is trying to get three streets of value imho. For villain to be 3barrell bluffing here to a 3better pre antes in a 5k would be very folly imo. Think hero took the best line.
Do we vbet if checked to on the river?
Why did he donk if he's flopped a set and puts me on a big pair?
I dunno, maybe raising the flop and folding to a 3 bet was the best line.
I'd say over the long haul, just calling down flop and turn and making a decision on river based on final board texture / betsizing / timing tells probably carries more value than raising the flop. In the former scenario you will end up feeling silly every so often, but when you take the latter route he basically plays you perfect every time.
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"
All glory comes from daring to begin
" - Eugene F. Ware.
totalise
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Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #41 on:
September 25, 2009, 02:10:06 AM »
i like ur line completely if you folded the river Keith. Flatting AA is pissing equity into the wind given this structure.
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AlexMartin
spewtards r us
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rat+rabbiting society of herts- future champ
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #42 on:
September 25, 2009, 05:33:51 PM »
this thread gets my vote for hand of the year so far tbh, purely because its tough, higher stakes than 95% on here are used to and we are so deep v an excellent player. results please.
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mondatoo
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Posts: 22639
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #43 on:
September 25, 2009, 05:38:29 PM »
Quote from: AlexMartin on September 25, 2009, 05:33:51 PM
this thread gets my vote for hand of the year so far tbh, purely because its tough,
higher stakes than 95% on here are used to
and we are so deep v an excellent player. results please.
For that reason it doesn't imo,very interesting thread but not much use esp short/medium term to most on here
Good thread tho
Surely my vegas one wins,it had it all
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doubleup
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Posts: 7070
Re: WCOOP Main Event hand
«
Reply #44 on:
September 25, 2009, 05:44:55 PM »
Quote from: LuckyLloyd on September 24, 2009, 10:09:04 PM
but when you take the latter route he basically plays you perfect every time.
But the route hero has taken has still put him in a tough spot (unless you think it isn't).
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