BAGS track championship starts this week. Have you bet yet Arb?
I've had decent bets on Newc/Romford, and had small bets on PerryBarr/Poole.
I got the 5/1 Newcastle e/w. Looks an incredible price given their group. Would happily still take 4/1. The ew part of the bet is stonking value. Too many of Romford's dogs run in shit 'lol opens' every Friday night which are effectively poor A1's so a lot of their dogs won't be able to enter. Couldn't back them at 16/1. Final track is pretty certain to be a 480m track which won't suit them either.
http://www.bagsracing.com/2015-group-hq.htmlNo idea which firms have priced up the groups that the prices are showing on this website. Can't see them on oddschecker anywhere. Winner of each group go through and 2 highest scoring losers. This really doesn't help the 'tough' midlands group with 4 big tracks in it. Towcester, Sheffield, Notts and Posh. They are all going to take points off each other more so than the other groups so it seems highly likely only the winner will go through from this group imo. Those 4 combined take such a huge % out of the outright book (5/2, 8/1, 16/1 and 25/1 = nearly 50% - obv plenty of over round even taking top prices) however it just creates huge value elsewhere in the other groups imo.
Then the additional bingo factor it is a 20 runnner hcap effectively with 1/4 1,2,3,4 place terms when so many of the field have no chance. Newcastle are 4/11 to win their group. Even if they don't win their group they are still odds on to qualify if they come second because their section is so weak and they will pick up plenty of points towards a highest loser position. They are probably 1/4 to reach the final if you take the 4/11 literally to win the group. We are getting even money a top 4 finish place wise in a 6 runner final on the 2nd fav outright when they are 1/4 to reach the final imo. Basically taking even money and hoping they don't come 5th or last in the final. They won't be bigger than 4/1 either if they get to the final to win so there is definitely value, albeit less value than the place angle, in the win price as well. Their 'home distance' of 480m is highly likely to be close to the distance at the track in the final which will give them another edge over some of their rivals.
I really think this is close to a maximum bet given the draw, maths angles etc.
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