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Greyhound Racing Thread
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Topic: Greyhound Racing Thread (Read 608600 times)
scotty2hatty
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1200 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:29:59 PM »
Nice work Adz. FU Critic.
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arbboy
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1201 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:35:52 PM »
Quote from: scotty2hatty on October 09, 2014, 11:29:15 PM
Quote from: arbboy on October 09, 2014, 09:51:02 PM
The wides are def favoured at Hove. t1 and t6 in last were in photo
when 1 3 lengths quicker on best times over C&D
. 6 looks a strong bet at 5/1 now in the 1011pm
Surely that's not relevant to determining a bias. Screen Critic the faster dog.
Assuming both dogs run to their best form and no trouble (it was a clean race) then if the dogs cross the line together and one is 25 spots quicker than the other you would have to expect the 3 lengths to be made up by the bias everything else being equal. Given the rest of the night's results i think it's pretty clear this was the case and the reason why 6 went off a strong fav ahead of 1 even though 1 was a much quicker dog on best form.
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Omm
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1202 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:37:28 PM »
Quote from: scotty2hatty on October 09, 2014, 11:29:59 PM
Nice work Adz. FU Critic.
I'd had the double on Finas and. Chicago, went in again with Critic and thought it ran a great race, just didn't keep it's head in front. Very unlucky but a great running dog, one to keep an eye on.
What do you think of Coolmore Joe at 12-1 for Henlow Derby, touch overpriced?
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scotty2hatty
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1203 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:40:43 PM »
Quote from: arbboy on October 09, 2014, 11:35:52 PM
Quote from: scotty2hatty on October 09, 2014, 11:29:15 PM
Quote from: arbboy on October 09, 2014, 09:51:02 PM
The wides are def favoured at Hove. t1 and t6 in last were in photo
when 1 3 lengths quicker on best times over C&D
. 6 looks a strong bet at 5/1 now in the 1011pm
Surely that's not relevant to determining a bias. Screen Critic the faster dog.
Assuming both dogs run to their best form and no trouble (it was a clean race) then if the dogs cross the line together and one is 25 spots quicker than the other you would have to expect the 3 lengths to be made up by the bias everything else being equal. Given the rest of the night's results i think it's pretty clear this was the case and the reason why 6 went off a strong fav ahead of 1 even though 1 was a much quicker dog on best form.
Generally that's true, and I'm not arguing that there wasn't a bias, but Screen Critic has ran 29:80-29:90 and the times are generally considered to be +30 with the new traps so Critic was probably the slightly faster dog. Especially given his times were recent.
Not arguing, was just trying to figure out the logic.
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arbboy
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1204 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:43:22 PM »
Quote from: scotty2hatty on October 09, 2014, 11:40:43 PM
Quote from: arbboy on October 09, 2014, 11:35:52 PM
Quote from: scotty2hatty on October 09, 2014, 11:29:15 PM
Quote from: arbboy on October 09, 2014, 09:51:02 PM
The wides are def favoured at Hove. t1 and t6 in last were in photo
when 1 3 lengths quicker on best times over C&D
. 6 looks a strong bet at 5/1 now in the 1011pm
Surely that's not relevant to determining a bias. Screen Critic the faster dog.
Assuming both dogs run to their best form and no trouble (it was a clean race) then if the dogs cross the line together and one is 25 spots quicker than the other you would have to expect the 3 lengths to be made up by the bias everything else being equal. Given the rest of the night's results i think it's pretty clear this was the case and the reason why 6 went off a strong fav ahead of 1 even though 1 was a much quicker dog on best form.
Generally that's true, and I'm not arguing that there wasn't a bias, but Screen Critic has ran 29:80-29:90 and the times are generally considered to be +30 with the new traps so Critic was probably the slightly faster dog. Especially given his times were recent.
Not arguing, was just trying to figure out the logic.
The calculated times are adjusted for the new traps. Not sure if you read the article in the post the standard going now when its normal is -30 not 0.
«
Last Edit: October 09, 2014, 11:46:17 PM by arbboy
»
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arbboy
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1205 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:45:50 PM »
critic's best calc time is 29.86 in an open with a clear run. T1 has done 29.69 in trouble recently and numerous 29.70s in the past calculated.
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scotty2hatty
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1206 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:46:56 PM »
Got you, didn't realise they'd adjusted. Thanks.
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arbboy
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1207 on:
October 09, 2014, 11:53:41 PM »
Quote from: scotty2hatty on October 09, 2014, 11:46:56 PM
Got you, didn't realise they'd adjusted. Thanks.
yer if u look at recent hove cards most are -30 when they would normally be 0 ie normal going. I am struggling to find the article in the rpost which was a week or so ago. I made the same mistake as you before i read the article.
What tongiht did show is what a real deal chicago is running like that against that bias.
«
Last Edit: October 09, 2014, 11:57:48 PM by arbboy
»
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The Camel
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Under my tree, being a troll.
Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1208 on:
October 10, 2014, 09:33:58 AM »
Sat next to Mark Wallis for about 3 levels of the GUKPT London yesterday.
Kinda strange to be chatting to a legend in a poker tournament when virtually zero of the other players would know who he was.
Proper nice bloke too.
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Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists
"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012
"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
Omm
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1209 on:
October 10, 2014, 12:10:04 PM »
Quote from: The Camel on October 10, 2014, 09:33:58 AM
Sat next to Mark Wallis for about 3 levels of the GUKPT London yesterday.
Kinda strange to be chatting to a legend in a poker tournament when virtually zero of the other players would know who he was.
Proper nice bloke too.
Wow, I heard he went over for the WSOP main event, seems he is really into poker, any good? Must have been quite nice being able to talk to him, isn't he moving to Towcester when it opens?
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Omm
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1210 on:
October 10, 2014, 12:53:08 PM »
Notts 8:22 t1 11/10 with 366, odds on everywhere else, should win, if want to be risk adverse can lay back on bf later.
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arbboy
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1211 on:
October 10, 2014, 03:59:52 PM »
more rain today seems to be favouring the middle/wide dogs at both afternoon BAGS meetings at Monmore and Swindon this afternoon from the first 4/5 races.
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Nico29
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Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1212 on:
October 10, 2014, 08:54:28 PM »
Quote from: Omm on October 10, 2014, 12:53:08 PM
Notts 8:22 t1 11/10 with 366, odds on everywhere else, should win, if want to be risk adverse can lay back on bf later.
oioi omn just got up
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Omm
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Posts: 3228
Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1213 on:
October 10, 2014, 09:06:16 PM »
Quote from: Nico29 on October 10, 2014, 08:54:28 PM
Quote from: Omm on October 10, 2014, 12:53:08 PM
Notts 8:22 t1 11/10 with 366, odds on everywhere else, should win, if want to be risk adverse can lay back on bf later.
oioi omn just got up
Returned 4/5, don't mind how they win as long as they do. Oi oi
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Nico29
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Posts: 2412
Re: Greyhound Racing Thread
«
Reply #1214 on:
October 10, 2014, 09:22:17 PM »
Indeed mate. Great call on price too.
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