One that's bothering me from last night

[Claw75]

Ooer, time for my bi-annual post on PHA.  Playing in a £100 live freezeout last night. Blinds are 300/600/25 and I have 14k (average 17k). Just been moved to a new table where there are a lot of big stacks.  We're 9 handed. 2nd hand at the table I pick up  in mid/late position. UTG+1 has limped out of his 40k-ish stack, and I raise it up to 2.2k. Passed to the button (around 30k) who makes it 5k more on top, folded to me, and I pass too. Very next hand it's deja-vu. Limper from last hand, now UTG, limps again and it's folded to me. I have again, and raise to 2.2k. 3 better from last hand comments that he'd better be careful if he's considering re-popping again, and I tell him I'm not passing this time. He folds, as do the button and the blinds, and the UTG limper immediately announces 'all in'. Is this another easy fold (leaving me with 9.5k), or do we find a call here?

[Rupert]

nah bang it in this time.  if btn jams after speech tho fold

[AlexMartin]

luton £100, 20bb eff. not folding AQ. Get it in 1st time, i see ppl with ranges as wide as 55+/QJs here

[the rage]

Good question. With no background info on my opponent, I would fold this one. I know it seems weak, but, from what you said about this and the previous hand, i don't think he will be bluffing, and, even if he is, you are not a massive favourite.

[marcin123]

folding here... Villain has ak... 15bb is enough to come back from,,, better spot imo...

[Cf]

First one I think folding is fine.

Second one I probably fold whilst going awkfjegnbesgebngieigoegnisgvs in my head.

9.5k is enough to go shoving with for a few hands to get some chips.

[GreekStein]

I know there's a limper but I still raise less in both hands.

2nd one I wouldn't beat yourself up about it if he has you beat. I mean the guy limps every hand, I don't think I fold AQ here.

[skolsuper]

6 replies and nobody has suggested a range or calculated our pot odds. Guess everyone's forgotten how to analyse hands..

Tight range: TT+ AK. AQo vs this range: 30.6%

Loose range (according to AlexMartin, shortlisted for blonde live player of the year with his 1 cashes in 2009): 55+,ATs+,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KQo. AQo vs this range: 50.6%

Pot Odds: 9.5k to call into (1100 + 2200 + 11700) = 15000 so the pot is laying 1.58:1, we need 38.8% to call.

So, as always, it depends on how tight the villain is. TBH I think they're actually going to be pretty tight here, from their point of view you're probably opening tighter and might call looser than you normally would due to the previous hand. It certainly doesn't look like a good spot for him to bluff. Fold for me I reckon.

[the rage]

Nice reply Skol. I did work out the pot odds. I also assigned the villian a range of hands, and had a rough, but reasonable idea about the chances against that range.
 I suspected that the villian would be unlikely to shove with a raggy ace, in the event that he was bluffing, so i came to the conclusion, rightly or wrongly, that the hero would either be a small favourite, or, much more likely, a big underdog.
 What program do you use to work out the percentages for the hand ranges? if you dont mind me asking.
 I'm pretty much at the bottom of the poker ladder at the moment, but i'm trying to learn from posts such as these.
  One of the reasons that i found this hand analysis question interesting was because it's a situation that i've been finding myself in quite often and been a bit unclear on. ie-when you have a decision on whether to call, but, if you get it wrong you're out of the tournament.
 How do you factor tournament survival into your calculations, or, do the pot odds still decide regardless of where you are in the comp?

[Cf]

PokerStove is the program you want. Just google it. It's free to download.

[the rage]

Thanks Cf. Hope the last post doesn't seem too silly. It was just something that was bugging me.

[Royal Flush]

James you say all that but all i do here is think does than guy have small pairs, can he have AJ? If so snappington.

[Blatch]

The standard of the average live donkament £100 is pretty appauling.

Surely Claw you must have some previous knowledge of this player.  I personally could tell you have 90% of the local players play at my local gala in Leicester and I hardly play there any more.  More often or not I wouldnt expect this player to show a small pocket pair.  Players I know that make regular final tables at the local would happily limp here with any suited Ace, any two pics and any pair. 

Does this person limp at this or other stages often?  How does the villian see you as a player?

[MANTIS01]

I think saying you're not passing is a mistake. It's like when you hear a player ask how much an opener has behind before deciding what to do. They pretty much tell the raiser they don't have premium. You wouldn't intimate to your oppo you might be playing for stacks if you had A-A, you'd just shut up and make your play. And you wouldn't tell someone you aint passing if you had A-A, you'd just remain silent, look worried, and hope they push. Volunteering that bonus info exposes the type of hand you've got. That and the deja-vu factor widens villain's pushing range imo. I call.

[Royal Flush]

I think saying you're not passing is a mistake. It's like when you hear a player ask how much an opener has behind before deciding what to do. They pretty much tell the raiser they don't have premium. You wouldn't intimate to your oppo you might be playing for stacks if you had A-A, you'd just shut up and make your play. And you wouldn't tell someone you aint passing if you had A-A, you'd just remain silent, look worried, and hope they push. Volunteering that bonus info exposes the type of hand you've got. That and the deja-vu factor widens villain's pushing range imo. I call.

Pretty sure i always ask the question if stacks are getting to 30bb or less.