AK late in a $550 STT

[thetank]

for gatso, ICM can still be relevant with stacks of over 10 bigs, it's just that other options may be more profitable.

Wiz will tell you a shove is likely to be bad with pkt 4's Utg at 15/30 and that's perfectly valid analysis should we be considering such a thing for some reason. The 10 big blind thing just recognizes that other tactics are available rather than just push and fold, and that they should be considered.

Similarly in this hand wiz's analysis of a shove will be perfectly valid. It just won't be able to analyze the raise call line in the same way so unless we do a whole tonne of math manually on the raise call line, a direct comparisom would be difficult. (hence above recommendation to use wiz and put all but big stacks calling ranges as zero)

skolsuper's idea is good too, probably better because then we can all have some lunch. Only problem with it is doesn't take into account the possibility of other stack peeling and leading, or taking similar lines that don't involve either shoving or folding.
 

[gatso]

I think it isn't a question of if I should call, I was always going to.  My thinking is that it may well have been better ICM wise just picking up 300 chips than having a 60/40(I am guessing I am something like that vs his range) for 3000 more chips, yet a 40% chance of getting nothing.

when you have to make the decision whether to shove or to raise to induce you are opening the pot so have no idea of sb's range so how are you making a decision assuming you'll be 60/40?

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii epic Gatso fail!

Of course he can assiign a range to what he thinks the SB would reshove with.

lol. you sure have understood a word in this thread

[thetank]

on reflection, skol's way is defo best way to tackle this problem, sb peeling will happen rarely so fk it.

Not at home just now either, does someone want to run it? I'd be very surprised if AKo isn't a raise call here but am interested in what wouldn't be.

[gatso]

for gatso, ICM can still be relevant with stacks of over 10 bigs, it's just that other options may be more profitable.  

I know, not sure I've said otherwise. just that I thought I remembered wiz not liking it but as I say it's been a while since I used it

probs just thinking of situations at early levels

[thetank]

on a seperate issue, if we are going to raise call here with premiums then do we need to be 2.5x ing rather than 3x ing.

With the whole range balancing thing. We don't want to telegraph our hand so do we need to to raise here with some raise fold hands too (versus sb reraise we fold, obv we call bb reraise)

That doesn't seem to be a problem in OPs case. He's either hidden his hand strength well or is up against a reg with leaks. It's more the saving 100 chips when we don't have AKo.

Spots where we always 3x when we want a call and always shove when we don't will land us in trouble eventually.

[Rookie (Rodney)]

BRAGGGGGG

[MC]

If you're playing this guy often, and you shoved AK here and it went to showdown, you are going to be getting 3bet a helluva lot when you open raise.

[StuartHopkin]

I think it isn't a question of if I should call, I was always going to.  My thinking is that it may well have been better ICM wise just picking up 300 chips than having a 60/40(I am guessing I am something like that vs his range) for 3000 more chips, yet a 40% chance of getting nothing.

when you have to make the decision whether to shove or to raise to induce you are opening the pot so have no idea of sb's range so how are you making a decision assuming you'll be 60/40?

Wiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii epic Gatso fail!

Of course he can assiign a range to what he thinks the SB would reshove with.

lol. you sure have understood a word in this thread

Understood most of it.
Dont want to understand anymore.
Find it pretty boring.

Youve failed again since i last looked though

[Doobs]

I tend to vary my raises quite a lot.  Though I do that far more in multis. 

I think the hand before was 525 or 550.  There was some method in my madness here.  The BB was so fishy I thought he was a likely caller of 500, so upped it a bit as I was likely to shove any flop.  That way he pays more to fish and if he hits and calls I am less far out with my odds on trying to hit the turn and river with my 6 outs.  I also figured 600 may discourage SB from shoving, but that was obviously an epic fail.

[Longy]

If you're playing this guy often, and you shoved AK here and it went to showdown, you are going to be getting 3bet a helluva lot when you open raise.

Shove your whole range?

Of course that is another way to balance but I would imagine opening to 2.5x is more profitable long term strat.

[thetank]

Ok, have run the Wiz as per skolsuper's good suggestion to evaluate the raise call line simply by adjusting the small blinds call%.

The Wiz hand first of all for the shove. It assumes a 65:35 payout as per the 6-max's on Pokerstars.

Click to see full-size image.

This graph below tells us all we need to know. We can see raise call is only more profitable if he's shoving over us quite wide. Between 30% and 60%. Even then it's pretty close.



It's a pretty flat graph though, so it's fair to say that either move is as good as each other.

Given there's fek all difference in EV from the ICM, I'd look to other factors, and decision would largely be based on how good SB is. (good reg = raise call, random, fish or nitty reg = shove because of greater chip utility)






Out of interest some more graphs with the same hand with different payout structures

Winner take all



Standard sitngo 50:30:20



Full Tilt 45 man



I might have got those last two mixed up, they're pretty much the same shape though.


So interesting results, with all those shorties around, it appears that the open shove is definately the line to take in a standard sitngo and a 45 man, it's not even close.

In game I probably do shove in the 45 man comp (half because 5th is such a ridic tiliting position to finish in a 38/25/16/10/6/5 payout structure) but I am surprised at how black and white things are in that it definately looks like the correct move.

Note : This is only because of the short stacks, dynamic is radically different if they're not there; it becomes black and white that raise call is the line.

[EvilPie]

I'm interested to know how many of these $550 stts our hero actually plays.

If it's not many then is all the SNGwiz stuff really of any use?

SNGwiz numbers are great for the long term game but if we only play 20 games a week isn't it largely irrelevant.

[EvilPie]

I'm interested to know how many of these $550 stts our hero actually plays.

If it's not many then is all the SNGwiz stuff really of any use?

SNGwiz numbers are great for the long term game but if we only play 20 games a week isn't it largely irrelevant.

Not at all. I probably shouldn't have used the word 'unexploitable' in my other post, this was really about finding the best play in isolation, i.e. tank has guesstimated the villains' ranges in this exact spot to find the best play. It's not a tool to find out the play where we can't be exploited if our opponents adjust. I'm guessing the other players could easily adjust to exploit this shoving range by calling lighter. Therefore we would have to be tighter. I dunno where the equilibrium would be, maybe 30%?

BTW tank do you think the presence of antes changes this much? I would expect to be shoving a lot less that 55% tbh.

SNGwiz tells us our profitability over a range of hands but this profitability is based on a long term forcast of facing the same situation many times over. Sometimes we win, sometimes we lose, overall if we have the range corrcet we know that eventually if we keep playing we will win.

If this is an isolated hand I don't see how opponent's range is anywhere near as significant against our specific holding which is pretty much the nuts.

We've got a monster, we either raise to induce or just shove.

Obviously if our hero plays thousands of these then SNGwiz tells it as it is so we should always go with what it says.

[Longy]

SNGwiz tells us our profitability over a range of hands

Nah it tells us the profitability of shoving AK because that is what we have. It then also suggests what other hands it would be profitable to shove with. At no point is it formulating a complete strategy, with hands included for metagame purposes, such as you might do when playing cash in 4bet/5bet situations. The worst hand in its suggested range is still profitable to shove with, in fact profitable enough to exceed our minimum edge. BTW I'm still not clear on what minimum edge is, David Tighe told me to set it to 0.07 which he said equated to a 7% ROI, but I see tank has it at 0.41 and I don't think tank looks for a 41% roi, can anybody clear this up for me?

It is the default edge that sngwiz has for various situations. For example sometimes it has -edge allowed when you are pushing utg with a 4bb or 5bb stack as taking a -ev spot is correct due to the effect of the blinds hitting you next hand.

In this situation it has a high edge as we are near chip leader and will get a lot of +ev spots down the line. Therefore taking very marginal spots is not necessarily a good thing.

[thetank]

If it's not many then is all the SNGwiz stuff really of any use?

SNGwiz numbers are great for the long term game but if we only play 20 games a week isn't it largely irrelevant.

Fuddie duddy!