Prose from a Poshboy

[rfgqqabc]

fold and dont turn up to day 2?

Makes a lot of sense. Also, wtf are you doing there to go mental last hand of the night? Obv a good spot but seems pretty meh to blow like £1k equity to reg a £336 tomorrow, even if your roi is like 150.

Firstly it's not "blowing" £1k equity. Say I had 72o and got called everytime I shoved, I'd still have like 20% equity. Now obviously we're not shoving 72o and obviously he's not calling everytime. It's pretty hard for us to make a jam that is -EV by more than a few hundred.

All I'm saying is I believed that the external factors I mentioned (hotels, food, wasted day + opportunity cost of not playing deepstack) would widen my shoving range quite significantly from the "standard" in this spot.

Say for example the standard range in this spot was like somebody mentioned 88+ and AQo (seemed very tight), then these factors would probably widen that range quite a lot - to say 22+, A8+, KJ+.

I might do some maths on it and see what happens since I have some time to kill before my house wakes up...

You made it sound super punty, my bad.  

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/29/news-views-gossip/western-club-london-westernmania-tournament-scam-legitimate-practice-1317241/

[titaniumbean]

From what i've heard about the Western, i'd rather play in a tournament guaranteed by the french, with Blatch as the accountant, Kremser as the lookerer afteerr of the pile of money.


lol collusionaments.

[Doobs]

fold and dont turn up to day 2?

Makes a lot of sense. Also, wtf are you doing there to go mental last hand of the night? Obv a good spot but seems pretty meh to blow like £1k equity to reg a £336 tomorrow, even if your roi is like 150.

Firstly it's not "blowing" £1k equity. Say I had 72o and got called everytime I shoved, I'd still have like 20% equity. Now obviously we're not shoving 72o and obviously he's not calling everytime. It's pretty hard for us to make a jam that is -EV by more than a few hundred.

All I'm saying is I believed that the external factors I mentioned (hotels, food, wasted day + opportunity cost of not playing deepstack) would widen my shoving range quite significantly from the "standard" in this spot.

Say for example the standard range in this spot was like somebody mentioned 88+ and AQo (seemed very tight), then these factors would probably widen that range quite a lot - to say 22+, A8+, KJ+.

I might do some maths on it and see what happens since I have some time to kill before my house wakes up...

I don't see why you need the hotel.  You have a car and the game is two and a half gours away, it isn't like it is in Prague.  Having said that, your wider range doesn't really look awful with 20 bigs.

[mulhuzz]

From what i've heard about the Western, i'd rather play in a tournament guaranteed by the french, with Blatch as the accountant, Kremser as the lookerer afteerr of the pile of money.


lol collusionaments.

excellent use of 'looker afterer'

also, agree.

[redarmi]

fold and dont turn up to day 2?

Makes a lot of sense. Also, wtf are you doing there to go mental last hand of the night? Obv a good spot but seems pretty meh to blow like £1k equity to reg a £336 tomorrow, even if your roi is like 150.

All I'm saying is I believed that the external factors I mentioned (hotels, food, wasted day + opportunity cost of not playing deepstack) would widen my shoving range quite significantly from the "standard" in this spot.

Didn't you consider all of these things before you decided to play? 

[cambridgealex]

Firstly let's calculate the times we get the shove through. This is VERY rough because he could be opening any two given how he was playing the bubble. Let's compromise and say he's opening a 40% range. And I know that since he called me with AJo, he's probably calling about a 11% range. So 11/40 = 27% getting called.

FOLD

Stack worth: £1k
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450 (Cost of not playing the DTD Deepstack / cash games - 2 bullets - not sure whether this is correct given might make day 2 on first bullet)

Total - £350

SHOVE

GET CALLED 27%

Stack worth: £1600 when we double X% (seems about right), £0 when we get stacked Y%
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450
Total: £950 X% OR £0 Y%

UNCALLED 73%

Stack worth: £1050
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450
Total: £400

Now we work backwards to work out what range we should shove. I'll reveal what I did shove after. NB so there's just one variable (X - our equity when called), I'll write Y as (100-X)

EV of shove: we double X * 0.27 (to £950), we bust (100-X)*0.27 (to £0), we get it through 0.73 (to £400)
EV of fold: £350

350 = 0.27*450*X + (100-X)*0.27 + 0.73*400
X = 0.256

So we need to shove a range that is 25.6% vs his calling range, which, funnily enough includes 72o and basically ATC except for 32o, 42o!

I assume my assumptions are off somewhat and I've forgotten somethings, but the maths is correct so as long as the assumptions aren't far off, jamming REALLY wide can't be -EV.

I jammed T9o.

@redarmi, I considered them all yes, but perhaps not quite as thoroughly as I should've done. I think it was correct to play, and I never would've punted 30bbs+ off at the end, just felt right at the time to get it in.

[edgascoigne]

I thought T9o won preflop AIs at your table?

[ruud]

The only reason my jamming range was so excessively tight was the 55k overlay btw... 

I know nothing about the Western, but having done a bit of reading up (fun times waiting in airports) your wider range looks spot on. (I am not arguing with your maths, but your any two justification basically hangs on external factors - a very interesting way to look at it).

Was it totally inconceivable to fold and play the deepstack today in an effort to run up a monster stack?!

And, to ask a difficult question, if you are having this dilemma in this spot, should you have played at all?

[GreekStein]

From what i've heard about the Western, i'd rather play in a tournament guaranteed by the french, with Blatch as the accountant, Kremser as the lookerer afteerr of the pile of money.


lol collusionaments.

ROFL

<3

[Leatherman]

What did he call with?

[Rexas]

AJos

[Mondeoman]

Firstly let's calculate the times we get the shove through. This is VERY rough because he could be opening any two given how he was playing the bubble. Let's compromise and say he's opening a 40% range. And I know that since he called me with AJo, he's probably calling about a 11% range. So 11/40 = 27% getting called.

FOLD

Stack worth: £1k
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450 (Cost of not playing the DTD Deepstack / cash games - 2 bullets - not sure whether this is correct given might make day 2 on first bullet)

Total - £350

SHOVE

GET CALLED 27%

Stack worth: £1600 when we double X% (seems about right), £0 when we get stacked Y%
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450
Total: £950 X% OR £0 Y%

UNCALLED 73%

Stack worth: £1050
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450
Total: £400

Now we work backwards to work out what range we should shove. I'll reveal what I did shove after. NB so there's just one variable (X - our equity when called), I'll write Y as (100-X)

EV of shove: we double X * 0.27 (to £950), we bust (100-X)*0.27 (to £0), we get it through 0.73 (to £400)
EV of fold: £350

350 = 0.27*450*X + (100-X)*0.27 + 0.73*400
X = 0.256

So we need to shove a range that is 25.6% vs his calling range, which, funnily enough includes 72o and basically ATC except for 32o, 42o!

I assume my assumptions are off somewhat and I've forgotten somethings, but the maths is correct so as long as the assumptions aren't far off, jamming REALLY wide can't be -EV.

I jammed T9o.

@redarmi, I considered them all yes, but perhaps not quite as thoroughly as I should've done. I think it was correct to play, and I never would've punted 30bbs+ off at the end, just felt right at the time to get it in.

This all seems pretty fishy.  I mean basically you didn't fancy travelling back down to London so you decided to punt it - nothing wrong with that, foregoing some £ cos you want to play in Notts is fine if that's what you want to do.
How have you calculated the opportunity cost? it all seems pretty spurious - I mean when you play the deep stack today will you factor into your decision the hourly rate you could be making in the cash games?  
Say your deepstack stack is worth £500 (cos im giving you a shameful mark up of 1.5ish) at the start of the tournament and the tournament takes 16 hours to play and your win rate on the cash tables is £20 per hour - then your opportunity cost is £320.  So then you should be pretty much reshipping all in every hand in the first level?

[cambridgealex]

You don't play 16hours on average do you, you play about 5 on average. So hourly is way higher

[Doobs]

Firstly let's calculate the times we get the shove through. This is VERY rough because he could be opening any two given how he was playing the bubble. Let's compromise and say he's opening a 40% range. And I know that since he called me with AJo, he's probably calling about a 11% range. So 11/40 = 27% getting called.

FOLD

Stack worth: £1k
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450 (Cost of not playing the DTD Deepstack / cash games - 2 bullets - not sure whether this is correct given might make day 2 on first bullet)

Total - £350

SHOVE

GET CALLED 27%

Stack worth: £1600 when we double X% (seems about right), £0 when we get stacked Y%
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450
Total: £950 X% OR £0 Y%

UNCALLED 73%

Stack worth: £1050
Expenses incurred: £200
Opportunity cost: ~£450
Total: £400

Now we work backwards to work out what range we should shove. I'll reveal what I did shove after. NB so there's just one variable (X - our equity when called), I'll write Y as (100-X)

EV of shove: we double X * 0.27 (to £950), we bust (100-X)*0.27 (to £0), we get it through 0.73 (to £400)
EV of fold: £350

350 = 0.27*450*X + (100-X)*0.27 + 0.73*400
X = 0.256

So we need to shove a range that is 25.6% vs his calling range, which, funnily enough includes 72o and basically ATC except for 32o, 42o!

I assume my assumptions are off somewhat and I've forgotten somethings, but the maths is correct so as long as the assumptions aren't far off, jamming REALLY wide can't be -EV.

I jammed T9o.

@redarmi, I considered them all yes, but perhaps not quite as thoroughly as I should've done. I think it was correct to play, and I never would've punted 30bbs+ off at the end, just felt right at the time to get it in.

Run better with your opportunity cost calculations.

[cambridgealex]

lol doobs yeh...

did good today, day 2 of deepstack 2nd in chips, 255k, 200k less than I had with two levels to go, but lost a biggie 99<AJ and bled off loads besides that.

Before that I more or less god-moded it, made hands for fun, including flopping a royal! Was a really fun day, would've been huge CL if I hold with the 99 but I would've taken 255k at the start of the day so looking good for sunday.