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Author Topic: Prose from a Poshboy  (Read 2281522 times)
paulhouk03
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« Reply #75 on: January 07, 2011, 11:38:50 AM »

We went back to mine with Jilly and Sean (DTD dealers) to chill. We played one of my favourite games in the world - Perudo. It's like south american liar dice. You get 5 dice each and roll them, only looking at your own. You then make guesses in turn as to the total number of any one number between everyones dice. 1s are wild. E.g. "4 sixes.....5 twos.....5 fives" until it gets high enough where someone says "Dudo" ("I doubt" in Spanish) and if the person has made an incorrect guess then he loses a die, and a correct guess the doubter loses one. I guarantee anyone who enjoys the Maths and psychology of poker will love it. There's loads of metagame and bluffing as well as some interesting game theory spots. I played Toby for £5 a game, pretty confident that I would pwn him. We agreed to play 5 games, I ran terrible in the first 3 and lost all 3, won the final two, then he suggested playing one more for £15. I snapaccepted as I felt I had a pretty big edge Cheesy and won to net a cheeky £10 profit. By 5am I was pretty dead and went up to sleep. Its now 9am and Im wide awake again ffs. Will be playing again tonight but not too much, want to be fresh for the deepstack on Saturday.


we play perudo as a drinking game but we call it "die waar sik" which mean lying dices

but you dont lose a dice

good fun game

theres a iphone app for it
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« Reply #76 on: January 07, 2011, 11:58:42 AM »

Do you have  set rules regarding the extra overheads that come with live poker?

i.e Tipping dealers, paying for meals while grinding at casino etc.

They have to pretty big hit to the bottom line of a live grinder especially when not playing very high.

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« Reply #77 on: January 07, 2011, 12:08:35 PM »



I loved the comment about nine chumps on the final table - I see this so often, maybe not nine but so many terrible players doing well in coinflipaments really tilts me.



If a man can't fly a plane, or do a heart transplant, it doesn't make him a chump, an idiot, a moron or a retard, it just means he hasn't acquired that particular skill set.

Don't begrudge the less accomplished players their occasional success. Be glad for them, praise them, congratulate them.

Without them, there would be no game.

I know Red- Dog, I agree, I wasn't meaning to be derogatory, just quoting and echoing Alex's frustration at seeing how large a factor luck is in tournaments.

completely agree with RED-DOG, people play for a whole host of reasons, and as people deserve respect anyway.

Also I think you mean variance, assuming Alex has a +ROI Wink
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« Reply #78 on: January 07, 2011, 12:52:13 PM »

Interesting thread so far. A few questions if you don't mind.

- What's the maximum hourly rate would you say is possible in the 0.5/1 at DTD, given the high rake and low buy-in cap? How does this compare to your winrate?
- Same question for the 1/2?
- Do you feel £50 tournaments are worth the time? Even 100% ROI doesn't translate to a high hourly, especially compared to a cash game.


I really should've worked this out before now so thanks for prompting me! Since Sep10 I've played 63 sessions, average session length I'm not sure about. I'd say 6 hours. I played lots of short sessions in the first few weeks while I was working in London and then at Uni. Since then it's been mostly 8 hour sessions, about 5 10-12hr ones and about 5 <2hr ones.

6*63=378hrs of play. Profit@ 0.50 1 is £4255 So £11.25 an hour. I'm going to try and play 8-9hr sessions this year, 5-6days a week. Probably 45hours a week with 5weeks holiday is 47weeks*45hrs*11.25/hr = ~24k a year. This is alright for now, but of course I hope to be playing higher stakes soon and mixed in with some decent tourney scores it'll be a decent wage.

With regards to sample size, 378 hours of play @ 25-30hands per hour (I know DTD dealers do 30-40hands/hr but this sample is mostly based on gala dealers Cheesy) = 10200 hands. I don't really know much about sample size with regards to #hands, perhaps some online sickos can help out and not be too mean. I'm sure Dan Morgan played that many hands this morning whilst chillin in his boxers drinking banana yazoo. But I do know that I've had two 10-15 buyin downswings during that time so don't feel I've had a really hot few months or anything. I'd say I'd ran pretty average over the entire period.

You asked about maximum possible hourly winrate compared to what I win. Would it be incredibly arrogant to suggest the two are equivalent?! Just asking Wink...I feel that I crush those games very hard. I don't know enough about the 1 2 to answer the same q. when I dealt @DTD  the games were uncapped and played pretty massive. I reckon you could make at least 3x the 50 1 rate in those games. I really have no idea though, ask Mitch lol. They are now capped though so hourly would be less ofc.

RE comps. Maybe its not worth playing the weekly £50 comps I agree, just £100+events. I'd be interested to hear what other people say about the value of these comps weekly comps for a professional.
« Last Edit: January 07, 2011, 01:04:21 PM by cambridgealex » Logged

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« Reply #79 on: January 07, 2011, 12:58:25 PM »

Interesting read so far. I have a couple of questions. Feel free to not answer them if you think they seem a bit harsh or too personal. I ask as in some ways I have been in the same situation.

1) Do you have a job/income? Or do you rely on poker for all your income?

2) Do you think you are good enough at poker, and likely enough to be on the right side of variance, to make a living from it given your current roll? You say you envied the life style of some of the players at the WSOPE. And you've obviously had a few decent results over the last months. Do you not worry that the last few months have clouded your judgement as to what the life style really entails - especially if things go bad and you have a bad run. Tying this into the first question - is there a backup plan if it doesn't work out?

As I say, if you think that's a bit harsh/personal then feel free to tell me to f*ck off lol. I only ask as your life story doesn't seem too dissimilar to mine, and I found myself wondering a few years ago about doing poker for a living instead of university. I chose differently to you - my reservations about it were pretty much what I included in my question.

Sorry haven't replied directly to this but hopefully what I've written above answers a few things. No I don't have another job. Yes I think i'm good enough to make living off it, given my current roll. I don't think it's close either. I think i'm smart enough to never go close to broke and good enough to at the very least sustain my current wage/hr. See what I wrote above wrt sample size. I'm not sure but I know when I've been running good and I know when I've been running bad. I genuinely feel that it's been pretty average.
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kinboshi
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« Reply #80 on: January 07, 2011, 12:59:04 PM »

Hi Alex - good diary, interesting stuff.  I have a question for you.

Do you have a butler?
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« Reply #81 on: January 07, 2011, 01:26:40 PM »

Hi Alex - good diary, interesting stuff.  I have a question for you.

Do you have a butler?

currently between butlers. jeeves just couldn't keep his hands off the family silver.
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« Reply #82 on: January 07, 2011, 01:47:33 PM »

Being working class is much better than being posh imo,just thought I'd put that out there.Best of luck with life Alex,fuk the pokers it's not that important obv,only money.

I challenge you to a game of Croquet on my lawn. Then we'll settle this.

Haha,drunken posts FTW Smiley

Great start to the diary.
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« Reply #83 on: January 07, 2011, 01:50:46 PM »

Hi Alex - good diary, interesting stuff.  I have a question for you.

Do you have a butler?

currently between butlers. jeeves just couldn't keep his hands off the family silver.

Jeeves you fkin prick
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« Reply #84 on: January 07, 2011, 02:09:20 PM »


With regards to sample size, 378 hours of play @ 25-30hands per hour (I know DTD dealers do 30-40hands/hr but this sample is mostly based on gala dealers Cheesy) = 10200 hands. I don't really know much about sample size with regards to #hands

You asked about maximum possible hourly winrate compared to what I win. Would it be incredibly arrogant to suggest the two are equivalent?! Just asking Wink...I feel that I crush those games very hard. I don't know enough about the 1 2 to answer the same q. when I dealt @DTD  the games were uncapped and played pretty massive. I reckon you could make at least 3x the 50 1 rate in those games. I really have no idea though, ask Mitch lol. They are now capped though so hourly would be less ofc.

RE comps. Maybe its not worth playing the weekly £50 comps I agree, just £100+events. I'd be interested to hear what other people say about the value of these comps weekly comps for a professional.

Ok, im no online sicko but il have a crack Wink 10,200 hands isn't a huge amount, but it is a decent sample live, in terms of winrate this is

bb's won (£4255) /(hands played/100)
4255/(10,200/100) = 41bb/100

This is a good winrate for these games imo, u should expect it to drop a certain amount fro stake to stake imo

Which if you're at DTD getting 30 hands per hour is an hourly of £12.51, = £26,458 p/annum so it seems playing at DTD is worth 2dimes a year more to you Smiley

To get a better hourly than this is the £50 comps (lets say your average time in tournamnet is 6 hours) so sustain your hourly rate you need an ROI of 125%, so perhaps they are worth your time in you are playing 50/1.

Ofc if you can grind 1/2 with 75% of the winrate than youd make £12k a year extra nom  nom nom nom nom nom
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« Reply #85 on: January 07, 2011, 04:19:47 PM »

I'm enjoying reading this Alex.

As a Dad with a son in his final year at UNI I would be very dissapointed if he gave it up to play poker. I suspect you hope to earn more than the £24k you have forecast as a UNI education esp in economics brings bigger rewards than that.

As a poker player who wished he had found poker at your age I wish you the best of luck. I believe if you're going to give something risky a go, do it whilst you are young and without commitments. If it doesn't work out no big deal. If it does brill.

Best of Luck.
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« Reply #86 on: January 07, 2011, 04:39:38 PM »

I'm enjoying reading this Alex.

As a Dad with a son in his final year at UNI I would be very dissapointed if he gave it up to play poker. I suspect you hope to earn more than the £24k you have forecast as a UNI education esp in economics brings bigger rewards than that.

As a poker player who wished he had found poker at your age I wish you the best of luck. I believe if you're going to give something risky a go, do it whilst you are young and without commitments. If it doesn't work out no big deal. If it does brill.

Best of Luck.

That's so very true.  Don't regret the things you do, just regret the things you wanted to do and didn't.  Or something like that.
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« Reply #87 on: January 07, 2011, 05:02:17 PM »

there's still a massive risk though.

If Alex did it for 3/4 years and then went broke, bright or not and degree or not, who will want to employ him?
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« Reply #88 on: January 07, 2011, 05:05:16 PM »

there's still a massive risk though.

If Alex did it for 3/4 years and then went broke, bright or not and degree or not, who will want to employ him?

this

it very hard to explain where you have been for the last few years and why u have not been picked up in the system.
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« Reply #89 on: January 07, 2011, 05:11:46 PM »

I don't really know much about sample size with regards to #hands, perhaps some online sickos can help out and not be too mean. I'm sure Dan Morgan played that many hands this morning whilst chillin in his boxers drinking banana yazoo. But I do know that I've had two 10-15 buyin downswings during that time so don't feel I've had a really hot few months or anything. I'd say I'd ran pretty average over the entire period.

Usually 10k hands would be a pretty tiny sample size but thats in the online games where you're looking at significantly smaller winrates therefore any deviation between your true winrate and your winrate over a 10k sample could change you from a winning player to a losing player pretty easily.

I don't think that this is the case playing live cash though. I couldn't tell you the actual maths without some research but a 41bb/100 winner over 10k hands is very unlikely to have a true winrate significantly below that (<20). Just from seeing you play you obv aren't going to be a long run loser in these games so I think you're onto a good thing

I think its good that you know that you've had some downswings but how much of that can you attribute to variance? I know I've seen a couple of spazouts posted on here but hopefully there weren't many more! This is something that I've been working on a lot, trying to play my A game all of the time or as much as possible and it has really helped my winrate. Even if I'm in a ridic soft game I prefer to quit if I'm playing bad rather than get more frustrated at how bad they are and that I'm not winning in the game when I should/could be if I'm playing well. Once you can attribute the downswings to variance (or at least a high %age of it) then I think that you're highly unlikely to downswing more than 15 buyins at 50/1 with your winrate

Banana was a sick choice btw, wp
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