Prose from a Poshboy

[outragous76]

One thing I'm enjoying a lot about the online grind is that the downswings come and go so quick you hardly notice them. I haven't had a >20BI downswing yet so I'm sure more brutal ones are coming. But over monday/tuesday I lost $3k over about 1500 hands, just a constant patch of losing and yeh it sucked, but didn't really mind. I was sure I was playing optimally in almost every spot (a few bad river calls but I'm only human) and it wasn't too long before the next period of run good came in and I booked a +800 session soon after.

If that swing had been live it would've definitely affected my mood way more because a) it would've lasted 50 hours so like 1-2weeks make the pain last 10x as long and b) losing money live is way more tilting than online, cos online is just numbers on a screen init.

In short, loving how fast online is, the swings come and go pretty quick so it's not too demoralising, enjoying learning and coming to grips with it too - it's a totally different beast. My winrate seems to be changing all the time, one minute its 10bb next minute its 1bb so haven't found my level yet (I've played 17k hands and winning at 3.6bb/100 right now, at what point would my sample size be large enough that I could accurately assess what my winrate was?) 

***
In other news, I had ANOTHER tilting conversation with the bank yesterday. Went in to pay in that inheritance cheque ( ) and they're like oooh "you want upgrrrrading?" I'm like, yeh would be nice but you'll just refuse me cos I don't pay in a regular income every month blah blah. They're like well you can't get a mortgage without a good credit rating and at the moment you're not doing anything to improve you're credit rating. That got me thinking, cos I see myself wanting to buy a house in say 5 years time so getting a mortgage will probably be necessary. But who would lend money to someone with no proof that they earn money/ will pay it back? I could put a healthy deposit down on it  (say 40% instead of the usual 10) but I'd still need a loan for the rest.

So of course I leave the bank same as usual, without a current account and feeling like a drug dealer.

New dream: win EPT, buy house outright.

Alex, can I first say what a great read this diary is. I'm a long time read but don't post on blonde very often.

On the mortgage issue you will struggle because lending criteria, in particular affordablity calculations are only going to get tougher I'm afraid.

The regulator is proposing something called the "mortgage market review". Part of that will put a heavier responsibility on lenders to demonstrate affordability. The bottom line is mortgages will be even harder to get in future than now unless ofcourse you fit their criteria - and they will want some form of guaranteed income.

if your parents can afford it, get them to guarantor, or take out the mortgage! Simples

[mulhuzz]

fuck that. just win an EPT.

[chatban]

Almost impossible to say just from that butSB vpip is way to high imo. My guess is youu are 3 betting against the wrong foes when giving up could be more sensible. Pretty much a guess though. I would filter 10-30 bb pots and check how much you are losing in the blinds and utg. Maybe you tend to give up on turns a lot vs decent regs when oop. Again guess but just play around with the filters.

50k hands is a decent sample size. Have to say I am impressed you jumped from live 200nl to 100nl online and seem to be an instant winner.

[cambridgealex]

Almost impossible to say just from that butSB vpip is way to high imo. My guess is youu are 3 betting against the wrong foes when giving up could be more sensible. Pretty much a guess though. I would filter 10-30 bb pots and check how much you are losing in the blinds and utg. Maybe you tend to give up on turns a lot vs decent regs when oop. Again guess but just play around with the filters.

50k hands is a decent sample size. Have to say I am impressed you jumped from live 200nl to 100nl online and seem to be an instant winner.

thanks, that's all at 200nl actually, and ongame is fairly soft, would probs get crushed on stars!

RE sb comments - i open any Ace, most suited cards, K9+, any pair if folded to me in the sb in a vacuum. perhaps this is too wide, but ppl just fold their bb on ongame so much so i steal loads. I almost certainly 3bet too much though and should a) tighten that up and b) look at the bbs fold to sb steal % a bit more when selecting who to steal from.

mondatoo sent me this article: www.nsdpoker.com/2011/03/nlhe_6m_pros/ and it says that even 200k isn't large enough to know your TRUE winrate, so it's just about having an educated guess based on a bunch of different things, dropping it by 2bb, plan for the worst and see where you end up!

I'd love to maintain a 5bb/100 winrate this year. Though 3 would be fine, I'm just happy to be winning tbh, thought I'd be useless online frankly!

Alex, can I first say what a great read this diary is. I'm a long time reader but don't post on blonde very often.

On the mortgage issue you will struggle because lending criteria, in particular affordablity calculations are only going to get tougher I'm afraid.

The regulator is proposing something called the "mortgage market review". Part of that will put a heavier responsibility on lenders to demonstrate affordability. The bottom line is mortgages will be even harder to get in future than now unless ofcourse you fit their criteria - and they will want some form of guaranteed income.

Thanks, Rick, glad you like it.

I'll think I'll have to get some contacts in the industry...

[Honeybadger]

Click to see full-size image.

what do you think of these stats? can see any obvious leaks?

Very small sample size so everything has to be taken with a pinch of salt. However...

Don't necessarily agree that you are too loose on the BTN. However, you are definitely too loose from the SB. 3bet is too high from this position. Also, attempt to steal is FAR too high from the SB. Two of the biggest leaks that many otherwise competent regs have are precisely these two leaks... i.e. 3betting too much from the SB and stealing too much from the SB.

Your results support this point too... you are losing more from the SB than from the BB which definitely suggests a leak in the SB.

[cambridgealex]

Thanks Stu, is it normal to be losing from utg? And I take it yr suppose to the most from the bb?

[Honeybadger]

Thanks Stu, is it normal to be losing from utg? And I take it yr suppose to the most from the bb?

You shouldn't be losing money from UTG.

You should be losing most money from the BB.

Sample size issues obviously. However, perhaps you should tighten up a little UTG until you get more used to things. The first set of hands to cut out from UTG are the small pairs. These tend to be at best break even hands anyway, but we open them so our range is a little stronger on low flops. But we can cut them out without losing anything. The second group of hands to cut out are the dominated offsuit broadways... AJo and KQo type hands. Again, these hands don't really make money UTG unless you play super well postflop... so you're not giving up much. Obviously if there are 3 nits behind you and 2 drooling fish in the blinds then we open ALL these hands and also much weaker hands that we'd normally fold... but this is an adjustment and I am talking about general standards (from which we often adjust).

[cambridgealex]

Or ability issues

[cambridgealex]

A few laptop questions.

1) I'm trying to change the setting so that it stays on even if I close the lid (I've got it linked to a big monitor so don't want the lid open). There is an option that looks like it's the right thing - power options>advanced>power buttons and lid>lid close action - there's then a drop down menu to change what the lid does, but it's frozen in grey and cannot be changed??

2) Is it true that having a laptop plugged in and charging whilst on full battery is bad for the long term life of the battery and causes it to run down quicker over time?

3) Is it true that having a laptop on standby and moving it about, say going in a car or walking downstairs with it, is bad for it?

[SuuPRlim]

Click to see full-size image.

what do you think of these stats? can see any obvious leaks?

Very small sample size so everything has to be taken with a pinch of salt. However...

Don't necessarily agree that you are too loose on the BTN. However, you are definitely too loose from the SB. 3bet is too high from this position. Also, attempt to steal is FAR too high from the SB. Two of the biggest leaks that many otherwise competent regs have are precisely these two leaks... i.e. 3betting too much from the SB and stealing too much from the SB.

Your results support this point too... you are losing more from the SB than from the BB which definitely suggests a leak in the SB.

I was going to say this. Stu B is just too good.

Alex something I used to do with my horses/students (because EVERYONE has some sort of SB or BB leak) is whenever they play a hand from the SB, I used to make them write down what hand it was and why they were playing it. Then we'd go over it and a good 50% of the time they should just have folded. I think people get a bit caught up with re-stealing LP opens from the blinds when there really is no need.

[RED-DOG]

A few laptop questions.

1) I'm trying to change the setting so that it stays on even if I close the lid (I've got it linked to a big monitor so don't want the lid open). There is an option that looks like it's the right thing - power options>advanced>power buttons and lid>lid close action - there's then a drop down menu to change what the lid does, but it's frozen in grey and cannot be changed??

2) Is it true that having a laptop plugged in and charging whilst on full battery is bad for the long term life of the battery and causes it to run down quicker over time?

3) Is it true that having a laptop on standby and moving it about, say going in a car or walking downstairs with it, is bad for it?

My lappy is set to go to standby when I close the lid, It's been that way for over a year, including when I travel. No ill effects.

If you set your lappy to stay on when you close the lid, I think it would overheat.

Charging auto stops when battery is full.

[skolsuper]

Click to see full-size image.

what do you think of these stats? can see any obvious leaks?

Very small sample size so everything has to be taken with a pinch of salt. However...

Don't necessarily agree that you are too loose on the BTN. However, you are definitely too loose from the SB. 3bet is too high from this position. Also, attempt to steal is FAR too high from the SB. Two of the biggest leaks that many otherwise competent regs have are precisely these two leaks... i.e. 3betting too much from the SB and stealing too much from the SB.

Your results support this point too... you are losing more from the SB than from the BB which definitely suggests a leak in the SB.

I was going to say this. Stu B is just too good.

Alex something I used to do with my horses/students (because EVERYONE has some sort of SB or BB leak) is whenever they play a hand from the SB, I used to make them write down what hand it was and why they were playing it. Then we'd go over it and a good 50% of the time they should just have folded. I think people get a bit caught up with re-stealing LP opens from the blinds when there really is no need.

Exactly right Stu and lilDave (as they usually are), but Alex isn't this exactly what I told you when we did that stats review in Prague? Too good for my advice now? Your sb loss-rate could/should be about half what it is now, so that's $1350 that you could have saved. Your UTG stats are fine though imo, probably just variance. What's your cbet from UTG? and BTN? Is there an upward trend towards later position or the opposite?

[Mondeoman]

There's always a way to get a mortgage although it's more difficult than it used to be you just have know the right people.

Your stats are not dissimilar from mine I'm proud of you, you spewtard.  Although in all seriousness prob sb is too loose. Hard to really analyse it out of context. You shouldn't be losing $ in any position except in the blinds - If you think about It you can break even  simply by folding every hand utg!

[Mondeoman]

Oh yeah dunno if you've done this but good tip is find out who the biggest winners are at your games say 5 players or so and just look at their positional stats. Then do whatever they're doing - simples.

[Bully87]

A few laptop questions.

1) I'm trying to change the setting so that it stays on even if I close the lid (I've got it linked to a big monitor so don't want the lid open). There is an option that looks like it's the right thing - power options>advanced>power buttons and lid>lid close action - there's then a drop down menu to change what the lid does, but it's frozen in grey and cannot be changed??

2) Is it true that having a laptop plugged in and charging whilst on full battery is bad for the long term life of the battery and causes it to run down quicker over time?

3) Is it true that having a laptop on standby and moving it about, say going in a car or walking downstairs with it, is bad for it?

1. Try unplugging the screen and setting the lid action, perhaps that will re-enable the options?.
2. Will affect it as your never draining it. IMO, charge up and let it run down when possible.
3. Standby is fine, like with most things, chucking it about and dropping it are detrimental but thats obvs.

Finally, your laptop will not overheat by shutting the lid. LOL

As for stats, I feel like such a nit, but I have a similar leak, losing loads from SB/BB. It's a hard one to rectify without turning into a super nit.