Prose from a Poshboy

[Leatherman]

gl

[stato_1]

Trust me Alex the enjoyment is even greater for those of us who have actually heard these "chart hits" before!

#fromibizatomiami

[aaron1867]

Was hanging out with my brother yesterday and we were chatting about some of the popular music on the radio these days. I was like do you know x and he would just play it on the piano perfectly having just heard it a few times on the radio. So I got him to do a short medley of 4 current "chart hits" and recorded it on my new camera.

I consider myself pretty musical - I could work out how to play those songs reasonably quickly, probably listen a few times, work it out slowly chord by chord and then I'd be able to give a pretty good rendition. Bobby literally hears it once can remember it and play it perfectly first time, it's incredible.

Just brilliant.

[RED-DOG]

Trust me Alex the enjoyment is even greater for those of us who have actually heard these "chart hits" before!

Oooh! Pwned.

[CatfordFISH]

Alex ive been a lurker of your diary for some while mate, its a great read mate, but when i was in DTD recently mate i recongised you mate, the first thing i thought was you gotta fix yourself up with a new pair of trainers geaser. I mean you have £1000 swings them trainers aint cutting it mate. Just a friendly bit of advice mate seeing that i noticed your single these days mate.

[millidonk]

meh, nothing wrong with his trainers.

[Leatherman]

meh, nothing wrong with his trainers.

lol
Nits gona Nit

[CHIPPYMAN]

Alex ive been a lurker of your diary for some while mate, its a great read mate, but when i was in DTD recently mate i recongised you mate, the first thing i thought was you gotta fix yourself up with a new pair of trainers geaser. I mean you have £1000 swings them trainers aint cutting it mate. Just a friendly bit of advice mate seeing that i noticed your single these days mate.

ISIT... Looking at people shoes? Weirdoooo

[smashedagain]

Alex ive been a lurker of your diary for some while mate, its a great read mate, but when i was in DTD recently mate i recongised you mate, the first thing i thought was you gotta fix yourself up with a new pair of trainers geaser. I mean you have £1000 swings them trainers aint cutting it mate. Just a friendly bit of advice mate seeing that i noticed your single these days mate.

ISIT... Looking at people shoes? Weirdoooo

Shoes maketh the man Frankie.

[cambridgealex]

Brief TR from Stoke.

I think we had one of the toughest tables in the room. I was on Deadmans direct right which was nice, but there was a few other decent players and only one player really giving it away and he was getting QQ+ every other hand so obv had the lot.

This guy and I played two pots together I remember. He limped utg, there was a raise and I flatted from the small blind, the big blind called and he called.

, I led, he called.
, I bet again, he called. Loving life at all times obviously.
. Mayyyybe long term this is a mistake but I checked thinking his range was Qx or X mostly, so I wanted to let him bluff / didn't  think he'd call with a Q (he'd actually been folding a lot of rivers funnily enough).

He checked, "I win then" I said and turned over my hand. Oh no, you have ! As John Black would say, #wpsir

Another hand where I 3bet QQ and he cold called from the sb with and donked small on 742, I called, he bet the same amount on 7 turn, green light to raise now right?! I'm suurrrre I'm good! Nope, can never be sure in live poker. I raise, he calls. And I value town myself nicely on a J river. He sigh calls the river, saying "If I raise him and he reraises what am I going to do, he might have a pair of Jacks!"

Anyway, the table was lots of fun, me and Deadman had a really good laugh all day, we wound this dealer up by saying "I was big blind last round dealer",

Dealer "No you weren't"

Me "he was definitely big blind last round"

Dealer "How much do you want to bet?"

Us "A lot".

Deadman and I stayed out each others way all day really until the antes got a bit juicier then we went a bit bananas and had some crazy levels and metagame going on. We had the dinner break and we were chatting about how when people raise overbets, it's always the nuts (take note JB). So we discussed the merits of using that line as a bluff vs people with depolarised overbet ranges. First hand back from the break we play this hand.

He raises hijack, I call with KQo and the chap from the hands above calls from the bb.

, bb checks, Simon checks, I bet 2100 into 5200. BB folds, Simon calls.

Simon checks, I check.

Simon checks. I bet 9000 into 9400. He shoves for 31000 total.

So so sick that this happens first hand back after our conversation above about overbets (I know I have haven't overbet the pot, but this bet is still an "overbet" in my book).

So what can he have?

[Leatherman]

  .

[leethefish]

Alex ive been a lurker of your diary for some while mate, its a great read mate, but when i was in DTD recently mate i recongised you mate, the first thing i thought was you gotta fix yourself up with a new pair of trainers geaser. I mean you have £1000 swings them trainers aint cutting it mate. Just a friendly bit of advice mate seeing that i noticed your single these days mate.

are you his mate? mate

[mondatoo]

Alex ive been a lurker of your diary for some while mate, its a great read mate, but when i was in DTD recently mate i recongised you mate, the first thing i thought was you gotta fix yourself up with a new pair of trainers geaser. I mean you have £1000 swings them trainers aint cutting it mate. Just a friendly bit of advice mate seeing that i noticed your single these days mate.

are you his mate? mate

Mate, you missed one.

[cambridgealex]

Those allergic to poker analysis, cover your eyes.



Analysis of this hand:

He raises hijack, I call with KQo and the chap from the hands above calls from the bb.

, bb checks, Simon checks, I bet 2100 into 5200. BB folds, Simon calls.

Simon checks, I check.

Simon checks. I bet 9000 into 9400. He shoves for 31000 total.

I really don't think he'd play AA or KK or AQ like this. Maybe up till the river, but I doubt he'd c/raise allin with those hands to my bet size.

6x? What 6x does he open? 67suited definitely - there's 67spades and 67clubs, so that's two hands. Might he play them like this? Perhaps. But with the bb in the hand and on such a draw heavy board with a vulnerable two pair, I'd expect him to bet the flop almost everytime. So I discounted them quite a bit. 68suited he might raise, again only two combos. Would he check/call the flop with bottom pair oop to me? Unlikely, he'd defo chose to cbet rather than c/call with bottom pair. Same with 56ss and A6ss, don't think he raises any another 6x.

So we've got 8combos of 6x, none of which we think he'll play like this.

QQ, 77, 66. One combo of QQ, 1 of 66, 3 combos of 77. With hands this strong, he's more likely to take this line than with 67 or AA, but still I'd expect him to bet the flop with these most of the time, but we did have a crazy dynamic causing us to play hands really weird vs each other, and I know he thinks I'm a bit of a monkey so probs expects me to bet that flop everytime when checked to. Why didn't he check/raise me then? We'd spoke quite a bit about check/raising flops as the preflop aggressor too. Seems like a great spot to try and level me with a flop c/raise? Also the bb in the hand was a massive station, surely a good spot to just get 3 juicy streets from him?

So basically the only value hands I think he can have are QQ, 66 and 77, 5 combos total. For the analysis I'll add in 3combos of the aforementioned 67/AA/A6 type hands that he's played very unexpectedly / badly imo

So that's 8 combos in his value range. (For ease of argument I'm saying he plays QQ, 66 and 77 like this EVERYTIME, I'd actually discount it at least 50%, leaving only 2/3 combos)

It's 22k for us to call to win a pot of 9k + 9.4k + 31k = 49400, So we're getting 2.25:1 on a call, meaning he only needs to have 3.5bluff combos for it to be a +EV call.

I'd have 16k behind if I called and lost at 400/800/100. Average was about 39k. So it's a big hit, and I always prefer to be getting a decent amount more than cEV neutral to make a call like this. So in this case, if I thought he had only 4 bluff combos, I'd fold, despite it being slightly +cEV.

However I really don't think it's close to that, although I couldn't name one specific hand he'd definitely play like this, there's a chance he plays many hands like this. Turning 88-JJ into a bluff, knowing I can have KQ/AQ here, playing a flush draw like this, 89, floated the flop with AKhh, T8hh etc.

Afterwards I was unsure about my call, but having done this analysis, I'm sure it's fine, and just seeing how few combos of bluff's he needs to have for it to be profitable has convinced me it was fine.

He had 77 and ended the day with 200k, I ended with nothing! I got my 16k in with JJ and lost to AQ. So I guess he won on the day, but it was a lot of fun and always a good learning experience playing with Simon, he plays so so good but different to lots of players, so it's never easy or straight forward, and he keeps you on your toes.

[RED-DOG]

I love well written, 'Thought process' poker analysis.