Prose from a Poshboy

[cambridgealex]

OK I've sorted most of my EPL spread bets for the season. Thought I would share what they are and we'll see how I do over the season. I'd like to think I've taken the right side of the lines, but am not delusional that I'm a sports betting fiend and have made a bunch of sharky bets. I'm paying any juice there is for a season long sweat which I know I'll love. Won't say amounts but will give you an idea of where I've gone big.

Teams bought (taken overs)

Middlesborough 39.5 points: 4 units (per point)
Stoke 45.5 points: 2 units
Spurs 67.5 points: 1 unit
West Ham 55 points: 1 unit

Teams sold (taken unders)

Man City 75.5 points: 3 units
Leicester 54.5 points: 3 units

Other bets:

Chelsea vs Arsenal 2 units per point.
Chelsea top 4 at 8/13: 25 units.

Gone huge on Chelsea. The top 4 bet is with a guy that I had credit with and wanted to gamble with rather than cash out. It's my biggest ever sports bet. Come on team Kante/Conte!

[redsimon]

3) Taxes, so huge not to get taxed! In the UK people earning over £32k get taxed 40%! Absurd to pay nothing!

https://www.gov.uk/income-tax-rates/current-rates-and-allowances

More like £43k

[redsimon]

OK I've sorted most of my EPL spread bets for the season. Thought I would share what they are and we'll see how I do over the season. I'd like to think I've taken the right side of the lines, but am not delusional that I'm a sports betting fiend and have made a bunch of sharky bets. I'm paying any juice there is for a season long sweat which I know I'll love. Won't say amounts but will give you an idea of where I've gone big.

Teams bought (taken overs)

Middlesborough 39.5 points: 4 units (per point)
Stoke 45.5 points: 2 units
Spurs 67.5 points: 1 unit
West Ham 55 points: 1 unit

Teams sold (taken unders)

Man City 75.5 points: 3 units
Leicester 54.5 points: 3 units

Other bets:

Chelsea vs Arsenal 2 units per point.
Chelsea top 4 at 8/13: 25 units.

Gone huge on Chelsea. The top 4 bet is with a guy that I had credit with and wanted to gamble with rather than cash out. It's my biggest ever sports bet. Come on team Kante/Conte!

Like those bets though Leicester one is the riskiest imho.

[TightEnd]

why do you think Leicester will be more than 27 points worse than last season?

I think you are completely wrong. (no surprise there, everyone cries)

fwiw i expect something north of 60 points and top 10.

Might adjust that a little lower if Mahrez leaves before the end of August

[arbboy]

OK I've sorted most of my EPL spread bets for the season. Thought I would share what they are and we'll see how I do over the season. I'd like to think I've taken the right side of the lines, but am not delusional that I'm a sports betting fiend and have made a bunch of sharky bets. I'm paying any juice there is for a season long sweat which I know I'll love. Won't say amounts but will give you an idea of where I've gone big.

Teams bought (taken overs)

Middlesborough 39.5 points: 4 units (per point)
Stoke 45.5 points: 2 units
Spurs 67.5 points: 1 unit
West Ham 55 points: 1 unit

Teams sold (taken unders)

Man City 75.5 points: 3 units
Leicester 54.5 points: 3 units

Other bets:

Chelsea vs Arsenal 2 units per point.
Chelsea top 4 at 8/13: 25 units.

Gone huge on Chelsea. The top 4 bet is with a guy that I had credit with and wanted to gamble with rather than cash out. It's my biggest ever sports bet. Come on team Kante/Conte!

Nothing wrong with following a sports betting fiend though!!!! (discretely of course)    5% of the profits will do in May!

[Woodsey]

3) Taxes, so huge not to get taxed! In the UK people earning over £32k get taxed 40%! Absurd to pay nothing!

https://www.gov.uk/income-tax-rates/current-rates-and-allowances

More like £43k

And you are actually getting taxed 50+% when you take national insurance into account.

[pleno1]

why do you think Leicester will be more than 27 points worse than last season?

I think you are completely wrong. (no surprise there, everyone cries)

fwiw i expect something north of 60 points and top 10.

Might adjust that a little lower if Mahrez leaves before the end of August

Should go all in then

Will be such a great season, can't wait.

[cambridgealex]

why do you think Leicester will be more than 27 points worse than last season?

I think you are completely wrong. (no surprise there, everyone cries)

fwiw i expect something north of 60 points and top 10.

Might adjust that a little lower if Mahrez leaves before the end of August

It's nothing personal Tighty, just business!

Amazing thing is, that Ironside also thinks Southampton will be 10 points offer better than the spreads. Arrboy thinks Stoke the same. Even Ralph has backed Arsenal vs Chelsea with me. It's almost as if...no wait, we're all purely rational gamblers.

I've left Liverpool alone this year.

[arbboy]

why do you think Leicester will be more than 27 points worse than last season?

I think you are completely wrong. (no surprise there, everyone cries)

fwiw i expect something north of 60 points and top 10.

Might adjust that a little lower if Mahrez leaves before the end of August

It's nothing personal Tighty, just business!

Amazing thing is, that Ironside also thinks Southampton will be 10 points offer better than the spreads. Arrboy thinks Stoke the same. Even Ralph has backed Arsenal vs Chelsea with me. It's almost as if...no wait, we're all purely rational gamblers.

I've left Liverpool alone this year.

Tighty could always tempt you with a slightly improved quote to gain your business from Sportingindex.  I don't think Stoke's quote should be 10 higher i just see very very little downside buying at 45.  I struggle to see a situation where Stoke get less than 40 points.  They probably won't get many more than the last 2 seasons either but i know which side of the fence i would rather be sitting.  Not spoken as a fan either.  All business for me as all.

[Doobs]

why do you think Leicester will be more than 27 points worse than last season?

I think you are completely wrong. (no surprise there, everyone cries)

fwiw i expect something north of 60 points and top 10.

Might adjust that a little lower if Mahrez leaves before the end of August

It's nothing personal Tighty, just business!

Amazing thing is, that Ironside also thinks Southampton will be 10 points offer better than the spreads. Arrboy thinks Stoke the same. Even Ralph has backed Arsenal vs Chelsea with me. It's almost as if...no wait, we're all purely rational gamblers.

I've left Liverpool alone this year.

Think people are making good points on Leicester.  It seems more likely to be the one that gives you an horrific result.  And you are much more likely to have a very bad time with spreads than with normal bets.  I used to spread bet, but don't think the good results were worth all the scars. 

Having a known downside is very underated.  There will be a time when you think the most you can realistically lose is x and you will find yourself sat on a way bigger loss in no time at all. 

Enough lecturing anyway.  How long do you think you will last as a pro poker player?  Pleno talked about 5 years the other day.  I have probably lasted way longer than most, but I am nowhere near as profitable as I once was.  M5ost of those who were there 10 years ago have long gone, including some who I used to think were really top class at the time.

[George2Loose]

Do you think Jason should've won Big Brother?

[JK]

Of all the things you've done thanks to the life you've made for yourself, which is the thing that's had you reflecting how lucky you are?

Same question in essence, but whats been your favourite moment?

Not sure if this has been asked, but whats your favourite ever pot of all time?

[Karabiner]

why do you think Leicester will be more than 27 points worse than last season?

I think you are completely wrong. (no surprise there, everyone cries)

fwiw i expect something north of 60 points and top 10.

Might adjust that a little lower if Mahrez leaves before the end of August

It's nothing personal Tighty, just business!

Amazing thing is, that Ironside also thinks Southampton will be 10 points offer better than the spreads. Arrboy thinks Stoke the same. Even Ralph has backed Arsenal vs Chelsea with me. It's almost as if...no wait, we're all purely rational gamblers.

I've left Liverpool alone this year.

I'm a little worried that you've been spending your evenings sticking voodoo pins in a Mertesacker doll this last week.

[TightEnd]

why do you think Leicester will be more than 27 points worse than last season?

I think you are completely wrong. (no surprise there, everyone cries)

fwiw i expect something north of 60 points and top 10.

Might adjust that a little lower if Mahrez leaves before the end of August

It's nothing personal Tighty, just business!

Amazing thing is, that Ironside also thinks Southampton will be 10 points offer better than the spreads. Arrboy thinks Stoke the same. Even Ralph has backed Arsenal vs Chelsea with me. It's almost as if...no wait, we're all purely rational gamblers.

I've left Liverpool alone this year.

its not personal for me either, its unemotional

if i thought leicester would undershoot the mid 50s enough to go under, i would agree with you

i think its your riskiest position with lots of per point downside if  they aren't 27 points/9 wins worse than last year which is what the spread implies.

that said, i like some of the other positions



 

[cambridgealex]

Of all the things you've done thanks to the life you've made for yourself, which is the thing that's had you reflecting how lucky you are?

Same question in essence, but whats been your favourite moment?

Not sure if this has been asked, but whats your favourite ever pot of all time?

EDC 2015 was probably a night where I felt the most thankful and happy with life.

And just in general anytime I'm having a laugh at the table I feel so lucky that I get to do something I love for a job.

My favourite pot of all time was this year, I wrote about it here. Will find it now.