NFL Betting blog

[LeKnave]

Haven't watched a MNF game for a long time, where can I watch the Skins go to 3-0 in the UK?

not one fucking place.

[LeKnave]

Roy Helu, did not turn into Daniel Thomas sigh, had a small feeling he might.  Eventually it will!

[Horneris]

ROY HELU, HELU, HES BETTER THAN ME OR YOU, HES GONA SCORE ONE OR TWO, ROY HELU, HELU

[Sheriff Fatman]

Sigh, field goal fest!

Another reason to add to the 'why I hate the Cowboys' list.

[DungBeetle]

Anybody got any fancies for Week 4 yet, or is discussing this on a Wednesday not cricket?

[redarmi]

Jax and Cin look okay to me but haven't looked at injuries yet.  Also my initial line for ind@TB was 13 and it has opened 10 so Bucs look decent.  I have a suspicion that Indy's defence won't be anything like as solid on the road.

[LeKnave]

Jax and Cin look okay to me but haven't looked at injuries yet.  Also my initial line for ind@TB was 13 and it has opened 10 so Bucs look decent.  I have a suspicion that Indy's defence won't be anything like as solid on the road.

what do you think the NO@JAC line should be?  I was liking the saints side quite a bit until you said that.  Any reasons in particular?

I do like the steelers to beat up Houston this week, got on @ 9/5 on the m/l.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I like Detroit +1.5 @ Dallas, especially with Dallas on a short week.  Just gone for this on Betfair at 2.02.  Bookies are offering 1.91 so virtually the same odds depending on your commision rates.

Was looking out for the NE@OAK line for a bit of potential value, but OAK +4 isn't tempting me compared to OAK@2.95 with Bwin on the outright.  Still feels like a bit of a punt but NE's defence is suspect and Oakland are under-rated so I think there could be a surprise here.  I'd feel better about it (and I'm sure there'd be more value) if both hadn't just done the same thing in Wk3 (NE losing unexpectedly and OAK beating a fancied team at home).  It has the makings of a shootout so maybe the over 53.5 points with Unibet is the best value.

The line that does perhaps look 'out' to me is IND +10 @ TB on Monday Night Football.  I think Tampa Bay win, but not convinced that they cover this.  They showed signs of improvement vs the Steelers so not convinced they suck quite as badly as in Wks 1&2.

Not many places giving odds on SF @ Philly but the line looks to be around -7.  Lots of uncertainty about who plays QB but Vick isn't ruled out as yet as his hand isn't broken, as first thought.  However, if he does play I'm not sure he finishes the game, he's looked poor anyway this season, and there's no news as to whether Vince Young or Kafka would be the backup (common sense suggests Young, but not a certaintly with Andy Reid).  A few weeks ago I'd have expected this to be a blowout, but I'm less sure now.  It might be a closer game than expected, particularly as the Eagles are v weak vs the run and conceding yards to Tight Ends.  It just so happens that Frank Gore (apparently he'll be fit to play) and Vernon Davis are the 49ers two most potent offensive weapons.
Might be worth monitoring through the week to see what happens with this one.  If Vick is confirmed as a likely starter then there might be some value on the SF side.

[Sheriff Fatman]

I do like the steelers to beat up Houston this week, got on @ 9/5 on the m/l.

Very surprised at how short Houston are on this.  They do look a legit contender and the Steelers have O-line issues, but they're the Steelers.  Would not be the least bit surprised if they spring a massive upset (and with the odds as they are, that's the only way to describe it).

It just feels wrong talking about them in those terms, which suggests that there's some value there.

[Sheriff Fatman]

Just had a quick look at the Superbowl Outright market on Sporting Index and found a few bets I liked.  I think there's been a bit of over-reaction in some places and not enough in others.

(100pts win, 70pts RU, 50pts lose Champ Conference, 33pts lose Div Play-Off, 20pts Wild Card, 0pts everything else)

Bought Chicago @ 5

Yes, they're 1-2 and there are 2 teams at 3-0 already but they've played genuine contenders in every game so far.  Battered Atlanta, lost to New Orleans and Green Bay who are the clearly the best two NFC teams.  This price has basically written them off already and it should start to creep up, particularly if Detroit have a loss or two in the next few weeks.  It's also possible, albeit unlikely, that 3 teams could make the playoffs from this division.

I've bought with the expectation that I can lay it off at a profit later in the year as things start to normalise.  No way are they a bottom 10 team as this price suggests.


Sold San Francisco @ 15

They've made a decent start at 2-1, but won vs weak teams in Seattle & Cincinnatti and lost to Dallas, who are probably and 8-8, 9-7 ish team this year.  The NFC West is unpredictable due to it's mediocrity and I wouldn't rule any of them out of it just yet.  Arizona are inconsistent, Seattle have a big homefield advantage at QWEST field and last week showed that they can pick up wins there against 'better' teams.  I had high hopes for the Rams but they made a bad start and are beat up, but could still pick up momentum if they beat Washington this weekend.

Worst case, as I see it, is that the 49ers win the division and lose the Wild Card game so I think this bet has limited downside and plenty of upside.  It's probably one I'll have to sweat out as the NFC West will go down to the wire due to the general mediocrity.

Bought Oakland @ 13

Was looking hard at selling San Diego @ 33 but that scares me a little as the Chargers are generally a team who gain momentum and, unlike the 49er bet, they have the potential to go deep in the playoffs.  However, they haven't looked great so far (standard for Norv Turner in the early weeks) but they will lose a big part of their offensive threat if Antonio Gates' injury problems persist.  Oakland have looked a far better outfit than I expected so far this season, play hard, and will be tough to beat.  I think they have the potential to at least run the Chargers close in the AFC West and could well end up as a Wild Card team in the AFC so don't necessarily need to win the division to hit the 20point level.  They went 6-0 in the division last season (and still failed to make the playoffs).  They lost their star player in free agency, but I think they're a better overall team this season, especially without the QB controversy of last year.

Feedback/thoughts/abuse all welcome  

[redarmi]

Jax and Cin look okay to me but haven't looked at injuries yet.  Also my initial line for ind@TB was 13 and it has opened 10 so Bucs look decent.  I have a suspicion that Indy's defence won't be anything like as solid on the road.

what do you think the NO@JAC line should be?  I was liking the saints side quite a bit until you said that.  Any reasons in particular?

I do like the steelers to beat up Houston this week, got on @ 9/5 on the m/l.

I made it 5.5 but i got +7 and bought that up to +7.5 5/6 which is a fairly big advantage and through a key number.  It certainly isn't a big opinion and is just based off my ratings so no big reason other than that and the key number.  i normally need  2.5 points to bet but if it goes through 3 or 7 and smetimes 10 I might bet with less.  Liking the 49ers +9 too.

[action man]

steelers 7/4 6pm
49ers + 9.5  6pm
giants 13/15 9pm
lions 5/4    6pm


trebles + acca

[Sheriff Fatman]

steelers 7/4 6pm
49ers + 9.5  6pm
giants 13/15 9pm
lions 5/4    6pm


trebles + acca

I like the selections.

The Eagles market did what I expected once Vick announced he was 100% to play.  I think the +9.5/+10 line is too big, given his injury and poor form so far.

[77dave]

bills -3.0
steelers +3.5
chargers -6.5

fancy Green bay -12 as well but decided to leave it alone

opinions?

[Sheriff Fatman]

Incredible comeback from the Lions!  Gives me a sweat to go forward.

49ers +10 GOOD (Didn't think they'd actually win the game, FML!)
Carolina +6.5 GOOD
Lions +2.5 GOOD
Giants -1
Raiders +6

4 folds and acca only, so still need one of them to come in.