Just copied this from the 'Tips for Tikay' thread. What is everyone backing tonight?
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After UFC 151 was spectacularly cancelled, we have had to wait 6 weeks between UFC events. UFC 152 takes place tonight and features some excellent match-ups and one bet in particular stands out for me and is worthy of consideration for TfT.
The co-main event sees the flyweight title on the line for the first time ever and we should get treated to an excellent fight as Joseph Benavidez (16-2) of Team Alpha Male takes on Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson (15-2-1). The bookies are heavily favouring Benavidez (1/3) and that allows us to have an excellent value bet on Johnson. In my regular UFC betting article I advised Johnson at 12/5 but he must have seen a little support since with 9/4 the best price available with other firms shorter.
The fight is guaranteed to be close and I expected the two fighters to be priced much closer. If you were giving me even money either man, I would still take Johnson - to emphasise how good I think the price is.
My expectation is that the majority of the fight will take place in the striking department, an area I anticipate Johnson to have a slight edge. Johnson is the busier fighter, and in these fights where the expectation is that it will go the full 5 rounds (stoppages less frequent when you have two 9 stone men hitting each other) it is important to be active and to point score. I can't find the outright striking statistics but on significant strikes (of which the exact definition no one is really sure), Johnson lands 3.11 per minute to Benavidez's 2.84. Perhaps more significantly, Johnson has a strike accuracy of 49%, considerably higher than Benavidez's 32%. The defence stats are close, with both absorbing a similar amount. From the statisitics we can determine that Johnson throws more and lands more, which is of course an excellent combination.
Those statistics are no secret and Benavidez's gameplan may involve trying to take Johnson to the mat where he has had previous success with 8 career submission victories. However, getting close enough to take down the speedy Johnson will be a task in itself and even if he does, his takedown success is a poor 25% with Johnson's defence at 55%. In fact, I think we might see Johnson point score with the odd takedown of his own as he is an accomplished wrestler with a success rate of 54%.
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, is a Johnson victory by decision which is offered up at 9/2 with Bodog and was best price 16/5 (PP) when I wrote my article before Bodog offered their prices. SkyBet have since went 4/1.
I don't really know how to do the maths as to regards whether the 9/4 outright or 9/2 decision is the better price. Johnson has 6 of 15 wins by decision and 6 submission victories but I am ruling the submission victory out in this close fight. I'll suggest the outright price but hopefully someone can come in and explain the maths, maybe someone has experience with boxing markets which might be similar.
I suggest £20 @ 9/4 (Ladbrokes) Demetrious Johnson to defeat Joe Benavidez at UFC 152.I've suggested a couple of other bets in my article if anyone fancies a sweat this evening:
http://www.thefightlounge.co.uk/news/ufc-152-beat-the-bookmakers/
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