My tennis betting diary

[Solaris]

Tomorrow's action:

Kanepi @ 8/11 v Schiavone (3 units)
Kanepi to win 2-0 in sets @ 2/1
Kanepi - 1.5 @ 5/6 (2 units)
Kanepi - 2.5 @ evens (2 units)
Zheng @ 5/2 v Kuznetsova
Zheng + 3.5 @ 11/10
Kvitova to win 2-0 @ 11/10 (3 units)
Baghdatis @ 11/4 v Murray
Sugita @ 23/10 v Almagro
Tsonga @ 5/2 v Federer (2 units)
Tsonga + 3.5 @ 9/10 (2 units)

Adding:
Kerber @ 9/5 v Pennetta

That's all I can see for now.

Going big on Kanepi. Feel she's played some great stuff this week. Schiavone has the h2h advantage at 4-2, but she's not the greatest on hard courts. Just feel she's giving up too many break-point opportunities and I feel like Kanepi is playing well enough to be able to take full advantage of that. Schiavone is arguably the biggest fighter on the WTA but she just pushes balls back and whereas her previous opponent Jankovic can't hit through the court often enough, Kanepi certainly can.

Zheng has a 0-7 record vs Kuznetsova which isn't enough a great omen. However she has served brilliantly this week and given the last of her matches v Svetlana was in 2010 and Svetlana's nowhere near the player she was, I feel Zheng offers a bit of value.

Baghdatis is value vs Murray. Has a positive 3-2 h2h vs Murray and I feel at 11/4 offers real value as Murray hasn't started the season too brightly. Equally Sugita offers value vs Almagro. Whilst Almagro has been playing doubles, he's yet to hit a ball in the singles and finds himself in the third round. I'm hoping Sugita can catch him cold. Will add in a handicap bet when this becomes available.

Tsonga is a thorn in Federer's side at times and with Federer looking woeful vs Djokovic and Nadal in the exhibition tournament and pretty poor vs Seppi too, you have to feel that there's sense in backing Tsonga. Also rumours Federer is struggling with a bit of a back problem.

Kvitova is dominating on indoor hard-courts right now. Has won he first two matches and her last two tournaments on the surface. Last time out in the tour championships Wozniacki didn't even get a break point opportunity. 2-0 is good value there imo.

[RED-DOG]

Is anyone else laying Nadal vs Youzhny? 1.17 to trade should he not crush him?

If Red-Dog is still reading, this is the kind of bet that one wouldnt be sure of winning by any means. The bet essentially is not me saying 'I think Youzhny will beat Nadal', it's me saying, 'Youzhny has a good chance of not being crushed by Nadal'.

If he can get his nose in front at some point, the price will swing, and even if Nadal is still favourite at that point, it should be enough for me to at least bet enough so that I get my stake back, with the option to spread profit across both players.


Edit: Nadal started like a train! Hold on Youzhny!

Yes. Still reading. Great thread, albeit somewhat side-tracked by you-know-who's tales of degeneracy. (I can't believe everyone swallowed it. Did you know he used to be a presenter on Jackanory?)

Anyway, re the Youzhny v Nadal match. You fancy him a bit. Well OK, but before long, there will be someone who you fancy quite a lot.

Why not save your money and lump it on him?.

[Solaris]

Yes. Still reading. Great thread, albeit somewhat side-tracked by you-know-who's tales of degeneracy. (I can't believe everyone swallowed it. Did you know he used to be a presenter on Jackanory?)

Anyway, re the Youzhny v Nadal match. You fancy him a bit. Well OK, but before long, there will be someone who you fancy quite a lot.

Why not save your money and lump it on him?.

Risk v reward, surely? I mean, I'm sure I could find a few 4/5 shots that I feel almost certain that they would win, but nothing in sport can be guaranteed. Imagine if the player I'm backing wins the first set 6-0 then slips in the first game of the next set, does ligament damage and retires meaning I lose?

The way I'm doing it means I have a lot less to risk but my reward is much lower. I could easily put my entire bankroll of 150 units on a 4/5 shot and win 120 units, equally I could lose it and then what?

I haven't purposely set any goals, as I think that would have an adverse affect on me, but let's take an example; if I have a 150 unit bankroll for which each unit is 20 pounds making my bankroll worth 3k, if I was to make 5 units a week profit for 40 weeks I'll have made 4k profit. Not huge, but certainly enough as an amateur punter on top of my work wages etc.

That's the way I look at it anyway!

[Solaris]

Kanepi @ 8/11 v Schiavone (3 units) WON + 2.29 units
Kanepi to win 2-0 in sets @ 2/1 WON + 4 units
Kanepi - 1.5 @ 5/6 (2 units) WON + 1.63 units
Kanepi - 2.5 @ evens (2 units) WON + 2 units
Zheng @ 5/2 v Kuznetsova WON + 2.5 units
Zheng + 3.5 @ 11/10 WON + 1.1 units
Kvitova to win 2-0 @ 11/10 (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Baghdatis @ 11/4 v Murray LOST - 1 unit
Sugita @ 23/10 v Almagro LOST - 1 unit
Tsonga @ 5/2 v Federer (2 units) VOID
Tsonga + 3.5 @ 9/10 (2 units) VOID

Adding:
Kerber @ 9/5 v Pennetta LOST - 1 unit

TOTAL PROFIT: 8.52 units

Best win of the night was easily Zheng Jie. Said in an above post she'd served well and promptly she went 5-0 down in the first set. Epic fail. A brilliant fightback to win in 3 sets gave me some nice profit in that match.

Kanepi absolutely annihilated Schiavone which was really nice; unfortunately that slag Wozniacki was able to steal a set off of Kvitova, Kerber got thrashed by Pennetta and Murray blew Baghdatis away.

Adding in-play: Monfils @ 3/1 v Nadal (2 units) @ 1-0 to Monfils WON + 6 units
Adding in-play: Sugita @ 20/1 v Almagro @ -40 *5-4 to Almagro LOST - 1 unit

I'm on absolute tilt from the Sugita match. Wanted to back Almagro at 6 games all in the second 6-4 to Sugita in the tb and my computer just froze. Sugita then had 4 break points I believe at 4-5* in the third set.

Monfils looks like he's going to drop the second set too. Hopefully not.

Edit: What a performance from Monfils!!

Pre-match profit: 150.67 (+ 0.67)

In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 13.67 units.

[doubleup]

Solaris - do you use any stats sites for research?  Do you have any spreadsheets/models that you use?

[Solaris]

Solaris - do you use any stats sites for research?  Do you have any spreadsheets/models that you use?

Predominantly use http://http://tennis.matchstat.com - I use that as the main source for my statistics, but I've found the biggest thing to do is simply sit and watch the matches when you can to get a real feel for what is going on out there on court.

For forums, I look at tennisforums.com (WTA) and menstennisforums.com (ATP). Problem there is you get a ridiculous amount of bias and crap posted so you have to wade through the shit in order to find genuine informed opinions.

I realise that in other sports (NBA for example) the guys making the money in sports betting have unbelievable stats/models that help them determine the appropriate lines etc, but I don't have that sort of detail. I simply want to find what I perceive to be value. Think I'm definitely capable of doing it, just have to prove it.

I will also be making my own spreadsheet, but I'm effectively starting from scratch and it's a long, slow process so I don't have much done right now.

Best of luck.

[FUN4FRASER]

I think its only a matter of time before  Jo - Wilfred Tsonga  at fancy prices will break through on hard surface courts this year...Australian Open  first ( 22 -1  ) then the US open later in the year

Maybe let me know what you think Solaris please  ? and any other hard court tournaments / surfaces  he may enter

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens-australian-open/winner

[doubleup]

I will also be making my own spreadsheet, but I'm effectively starting from scratch and it's a long, slow process so I don't have much done right now.

Best of luck.

The probability of winning the set is the difficult problem unless you sre a maths wiz.  There are papers on the net that probably have the correct model*, but taking their equations/functions and translating them into something that works in a spreadsheet is beyond me.......

*eg http://statracket.net/A.%20James%20O%27Malley.pdf

[MereNovice]

I will also be making my own spreadsheet, but I'm effectively starting from scratch and it's a long, slow process so I don't have much done right now.

Best of luck.

The probability of winning the set is the difficult problem unless you sre a maths wiz.  There are papers on the net that probably have the correct model*, but taking their equations/functions and translating them into something that works in a spreadsheet is beyond me.......

*eg http://statracket.net/A.%20James%20O%27Malley.pdf

The first line of the abstract says "In this paper an expression for the probability of winning a game in a tennis match is derived
under the assumption that the outcome of each point is identically and independently distributed.".

This strikes me as a very poor assumption.

[doubleup]

I will also be making my own spreadsheet, but I'm effectively starting from scratch and it's a long, slow process so I don't have much done right now.

Best of luck.

The probability of winning the set is the difficult problem unless you sre a maths wiz.  There are papers on the net that probably have the correct model*, but taking their equations/functions and translating them into something that works in a spreadsheet is beyond me.......

*eg http://statracket.net/A.%20James%20O%27Malley.pdf

The first line of the abstract says "In this paper an expression for the probability of winning a game in a tennis match is derived
under the assumption that the outcome of each point is identically and independently distributed.".

This strikes me as a very poor assumption.

Think that is ok as a model for most of a match - presumably you a referring to choking on important points?

[Solaris]

I think its only a matter of time before  Jo - Wilfred Tsonga  at fancy prices will break through on hard surface courts this year...Australian Open  first ( 22 -1  ) then the US open later in the year

Maybe let me know what you think Solaris please  ? and any other hard court tournaments / surfaces  he may enter

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens-australian-open/winner

People have been saying that for a long, long time. He'd be a decent e/w bet provided he's not in Novak's half of the draw. Can't look past Djokovic right now, he's just so far above the rest it's scary. I'm yet to see any evidence that the rest are close to catching him up. This will be Tsonga's last tournament before the Aussie Open. Generally speaking nobody who has a chance of winning it would ever consider playing the week before.

Tsonga's best chance of winning titles will be the few tournaments straight after the Aussie Open and towards the back end of the season when they switch to an indoor hard surface. He tends to play best on these surfaces. His record last year on them was 22-6 with wins in Metz, Vienna and finals in Rotterdam, Paris and the World Tour finals. Tellingly he didn't make a single hard-court final last year and his record was 18-9.

I like the guy a lot, but he always falls short and I see no reason why that's going to change. This week alone Tsonga has made a really easy draw unnecessarily difficult. Provided I can get a decent price I will be backing Monfils today.

[MereNovice]

I will also be making my own spreadsheet, but I'm effectively starting from scratch and it's a long, slow process so I don't have much done right now.

Best of luck.

The probability of winning the set is the difficult problem unless you sre a maths wiz.  There are papers on the net that probably have the correct model*, but taking their equations/functions and translating them into something that works in a spreadsheet is beyond me.......

*eg http://statracket.net/A.%20James%20O%27Malley.pdf

The first line of the abstract says "In this paper an expression for the probability of winning a game in a tennis match is derived
under the assumption that the outcome of each point is identically and independently distributed.".

This strikes me as a very poor assumption.

Think that is ok as a model for most of a match - presumably you a referring to choking on important points?

Yes, choking (what a horrible word) would be a big issue. I don't really follow the men's game but in the women's game it plays a significant part. Therefore I would say that there is a large degree of dependency. Also, issues such as serving into the sun or wind affect points in outdoor tournaments.

[Solaris]

Call me naive, stupid, whatever you like, but reading through that made my headache return. I just don't see how you can nail a sport down seemingly that easily when there are so many variables to be had.

Plus I'm rubbish when statistics become complex!

Monfils @ 6/5 v Tsonga (2 units)
Zheng @ 9/4 v Pennetta (2 units)

Will be adding a shit ton of matches later on.

Off to eat and hopefully enjoy a Monfils victory...

Unbelievable Jeff! Players walk off the court effectively both complaining it's too damp out there so they call it off until further notice. In the mean time what do they do in order to dry the court? Use steel brushes...  

To think these idiots have somehow got the World Cup....

[Solaris]

Monfils @ 6/5 v Tsonga (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Zheng @ 9/4 v Pennetta (2 units)

Safarova @ 6/4 v Ivanovic
Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units)
Oprandi @ 10/11 (3 units)
Cirstea @ 11/10 v Pervak
Zakopalova @ 10/11 v Halep (2 units)
U Radwanska @ 11/8 v King (2 units)

Fair play to Tsonga, he was excellent from *5-3 to Monfils. Was expecting Monfils to take the set and then was planning to trade out but Tsonga just blew him away to win 4 straight games and the set.

Pre-match profit: 148.67 (- 1.33)

In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 11.67 units.

[MereNovice]

Monfils @ 6/5 v Tsonga (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Zheng @ 9/4 v Pennetta (2 units)

Safarova @ 6/4 v Ivanovic
Cibulkova @ 5/6 v Peng (2 units)
Oprandi @ 10/11 (3 units)
Cirstea @ 11/10 v Pervak
Zakopalova @ 10/11 v Halep (2 units)
U Radwanska @ 11/8 v King (2 units)

Fair play to Tsonga, he was excellent from *5-3 to Monfils. Was expecting Monfils to take the set and then was planning to trade out but Tsonga just blew him away to win 4 straight games and the set.

Pre-match profit: 148.67 (- 1.33)

In-play profit: 13 units

Total profit: 11.67 units.

I'd be interested to know why you are backing Urszula Radwanska.

Great thread, btw.