My tennis betting diary

[Solaris]

Today:

Current P+L: + 90.68 units

Beck @ 23/20 v De Voest (2 units)
Meffert @ 6/4 v Golubev
Stebe to win 2-0 at 19/20 (2 units)
Under 21.5 games @ 5/6 (2 units)
Phau to win 2-0 6/4

Not a massive amount to take my fancy. Too lazy/tired but will explain the Meffert choice in more depth later - win or lose - as I think it's an interesting selection worth a good analysis.

[MereNovice]

Despite knowing very little about men's tennis, I bet on Murray at 6.4 to win the championship before the start. I thought that I'd hedge if he got to the semi-finals and the big three were still in.
After winning 5 matches and not dropping a set since the first set of the championship he is now 6.6 on Betfair!
However, Djokovic can be got at 1/2 to beat him in the semi-final.
What price is Murray likely to be in the final against Federer (presumably) if he beats Djokovic?

[ACE2M]

Despite knowing very little about men's tennis, I bet on Murray at 6.4 to win the championship before the start. I thought that I'd hedge if he got to the semi-finals and the big three were still in.
After winning 5 matches and not dropping a set since the first set of the championship he is now 6.6 on Betfair!
However, Djokovic can be got at 1/2 to beat him in the semi-final.
What price is Murray likely to be in the final against Federer (presumably) if he beats Djokovic?

6/4 ish

[Solaris]

Despite knowing very little about men's tennis, I bet on Murray at 6.4 to win the championship before the start. I thought that I'd hedge if he got to the semi-finals and the big three were still in.
After winning 5 matches and not dropping a set since the first set of the championship he is now 6.6 on Betfair!
However, Djokovic can be got at 1/2 to beat him in the semi-final.
What price is Murray likely to be in the final against Federer (presumably) if he beats Djokovic?

6/4 ish

Think he'll be a lot shorter imo. If he knocks out the world number one he'll be 6/5, perhaps even shorter.

Taking their recent prices vs each other off match stat tennis:

47/2010 ATP London (GBR)   I_Hard   Roger Federer   Andy Murray   6-4 6-2   [Stats]    Robin   1.75   -   2.06   
41/2010 ATP Shanghai (CHN)   Hard   Andy Murray   Roger Federer   6-3 6-2   [Stats]    Final   2.82   -   1.42   $
32/2010 ATP Toronto (CAN)   Hard   Andy Murray   Roger Federer   7-5 7-5   [Stats]    Final   1.84   -   1.94   
3/2010 ATP Australian Open (AUS)   Hard   Roger Federer   Andy Murray   6-3 6-4 7-6(11)   [Stats]    Final   1.59   -   2.33   
46/2009 ATP London (GBR)   I_Hard   Roger Federer   Andy Murray   3-6 6-3 6-1   [Stats]    Robin   1.78   -   2.01   
33/2009 ATP Cincinnati (USA)   Hard   Roger Federer   Andy Murray   6-2 7-6(   [Stats]    1/2   1.89   -   1.89   
10/2009 ATP Indian Wells (USA)   Hard   Andy Murray   Roger Federer   6-3 4-6 6-1   [Stats]    1/2   2.07   -   1.74   
1/2009 ATP Doha (QAT)   Hard   Andy Murray   Roger Federer   6-7(6) 6-2 6-2   [Stats]    1/2   1.95   -   1.83

Murray's been bigger than 11/8 on one occasion and I don't see it happening after beating the world number one!

[Solaris]

Beck @ 23/20 v De Voest (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Meffert @ 6/4 v Golubev WON + 1.5 units
Stebe to win 2-0 at 19/20 (2 units) WON + 1.9 units
Under 21.5 games @ 5/6 (2 units) WON + 1.86 units
Phau to win 2-0 6/4 LOST - 1 unit

Adding:

Alves @ 6/4 v Navarro (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Capkovic @ 7/8 v Lim (2 units) ]WON + 1.75 units
Ito to win 2-0 @ 6/5 (2 units) LOST - 2 units

Current P+L: + 90.69 units

The Ito match was super tilting. He was 6-4 4-4* 40-15* and then 3-0 up in the tie-breaker and still lost the set. Sigh.

Missed out on the women's stuff. Would definitely have backed the overs in both, but got very pissed last night and forgot to get involved. Ha.

[Horneris]

I reckon 6/4ish too.

The H2H's are all well and good but in both matches in slams Federer hasn't lost a set. And its so hard to win your first one, books would take that into account too. And also, I heard a lot of experts in the last couple of days saying this is the best tennis they have ever seen Fed play.

Murray will probably also be playing his best tennis ever if he beats Novak. It would be a great match.

I really hope Fed gets to the final but have a feeling Nadal will ruin the party and we will have a repeat of the Wimbledon final with Djokovic winning in 4.

Hope not, cmon Rog and Muzza!

[Dubai]

Fancy Fed super strong tonight. Backed him across the boards outright, -1.5 sets and 3-0

[Solaris]

Wish I could comment Dubai but missed too much of the action due to work! Having had a good look at the stats etc and I'd definitely avoid set betting myself. Rafa has a 6-1 h2h on hard courts (his sole loss being in 3 sets) and in the two 5 set matches that they've had, they both went to 5 sets. Wish you the best though.

[Dubai]

My view based purely on unbiased viewing this week- am assuming H2H etc is all factored into the price and form over the week is factored in slightly less than if 2 players of less calibre were playing

[FUN4FRASER]

Fancy Fed super strong tonight. Backed him across the boards outright, -1.5 sets and 3-0

With you big too

Follow The Fed     

[Raman]

What about the woman am on the spin up and punting Fed.

[mondatoo]

If anyone can find a link for me to watch Fed/Nadal after the game and Murray/Djokovic for the day after would much appreciate a pm please, won't be checking the thread to avoid spoilers, cheers.

[Solaris]

If anyone can find a link for me to watch Fed/Nadal after the game and Murray/Djokovic for the day after would much appreciate a pm please, won't be checking the thread to avoid spoilers, cheers.

For all your tennis needs.

http://www.lshunter.tv/tennis-live-streaming-video.html

[Solaris]

Today:

Fed - Nadal over 40.5 games @ 9/10 (3 units)
First set tie-break - YES @ 9/2 (2 units)
Aces handicap - Nadal + 10.5 @ 8/11 (3 units)
Nadal @ 7/5 v Federer (2 units)
Meffert @ 6/4 v Russell (2 units)
Zverev @ 11/13 v Klizan (2 units)
Knittel @ 13/10 v Bemelmans (2 units)
Bachinger @ 3/4 v Pospisil (3 units)
Ghem @ 9/5 v Odesnik (2 units)
Becker @ 7/8 v Stebe (2 units)

Today shall be interesting. Definitely has the chance to go superbly...or horribly wrong. We'll see!

[Solaris]

Fed - Nadal over 40.5 games @ 9/10 (3 units) WON + 2.7 units
First set tie-break - YES @ 9/2 (2 units) WON + 9 units
Aces handicap - Nadal + 10.5 @ 8/11 (3 units) WON + 2.29 units
Nadal @ 7/5 v Federer (2 units) WON + 2.8 units
Meffert @ 6/4 v Russell (2 units) WON + 3 units
Zverev @ 11/13 v Klizan (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Knittel @ 13/10 v Bemelmans (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Bachinger @ 3/4 v Pospisil (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Ghem @ 9/5 v Odesnik (2 units) LOST - 2 units
Becker @ 7/8 v Stebe (2 units) LOST - 2 units

ATM: + 8.79 units