My tennis betting diary

[Solaris]

This will be tl;dr or no-one will read it. Either way it's good for me to write this stuff down.

I'll start with the very basics and mention just the ATP today (that's the mens tour). I'll give it a brief overview and leave it at that. The tour is split up into ATP events, challengers and futures. No point explaining futures as they're largely irrelevant, but Challengers are the next step down from ATP events and make up the bread and butter living for the majority of players ranked anywhere from around 80-300. I bet on these now and again, but the coverage they get is adequate at best so it takes an immense amount of research and if I'm honest a little bit of presumption and guesswork. The reason for this is with no TV coverage you have to go by your knowledge of each player and their strengths (ie what surfaces they like) and weaknesses  (for example, records vs lefties, h2h vs opponent etc). I think there can be fantastic value at times in betting on challengers, but it's definitely much more of a minefield. I will go into why it is in greater depth in future posts.

My main interest is the mens ATP Tour events. This are split up into 250s, 500s, Master 1000s and the Slams. The reason they are given points as part of the titles is because they represent the maximum amount of points you can win playing one of these events. For example Andy Murray won ATP Brisbane at the start of the year for 250 points and the very same week Tsonga won the ATP Doha event for 500 points. Quite clearly over the course of a season were you to win 250s consistently you'd have a good ranking, but not much more. There are too many points offered elsewhere. That said you can make a good living from winning these events.

250 events are extremely good for betting. They will be in places no top pro will bother to venture too. You're not likely to see Djokovic slogging it out at ATP Casablanca, for example. You will get a mix of local players and as I like to call them, "grinders". These are the journeymen pro who play most weeks of the year. These guys are brilliant. Reason I say it is you pretty much always know what you'll get from them and so long as you're watching, you can work out when they're riding the crest of a wave or having a real slump. If you react well enough you can get fantastic value in these events.

The 500s are strong events for the most part. There's good prize money for winning and a decent amount of prestige to be had. They're tougher to get value from, but still offer great opportunities for betting.

There are 9 Master 100s. These are the cream of the crop events where all the top 10 will play. Offer the most points outside of the slams and big prize money. Again good betting opportunities, but can be a lot more limited due to the ridiculously skinny odds on offer at times.

The slams need no real explanation. There are four of them, Australian Open, French Open, Wimbledon, US Open. Aussie and US open are on hard courts, French is clay and Wimbledon grass. For me personally they are the absolute best betting opportunities. Love them to bits!

Haven't offered much deep analysis, but I'll do that in other posts. Just wanted to give the casual observer a bit more knowledge in order to interest them.

[MereNovice]

Good post. Very interesting.

[Solaris]

Like the action too much. 

Udomchoke @ 9/4 v Lu (5 units)
Wang @ evens v Mitchell (5 units)
Chen v Sugita @ 5/2 (5 units)

Very possible all three will lose, but they're all bigger than they should be.

[bobby1]

I often wondered what all the events were mate, it sounds a big job keeping on top of that but you seem to be managing it really well with the figs you have.

[Solaris]

Could lock up guaranteed profit here, but having seen Udomchoke go from 5-1 up to scraping through the first-set tie-break, I'm going to lump on Lu for the entire profit that I would have made with Udomchoke.

Lu @ 7/4 v Udomchoke (11.25 units)

Make about 3 units profit more if Lu wins and am break even if he doesn't.

[Solaris]

TOTAL PROFIT: + 207.48 units

Monaco @ 10/11 to win 2-0 (10 units) WON + 9.1 units
Udomchoke @ 9/4 v Lu (5 units) WON + 11.25 units
Wang @ evens v Mitchell (5 units) WON + 5 units
Chen v Sugita @ 5/2 (5 units) LOST - 5 units
In play: Lu @ 7/4 v Udomchoke (11.25 units) LOST - 11.25 units

+ 9.1 units

Lu match was truly bizarre. Udomchoke had three match points and couldn't convert at *5-4 and then Lu missed 4 set points at 6-5* and goes on to lose the tie-break having been 6-3 down in the tie-break only to win the next two points AGAINST serve and then lose his next service point and therefore the match. Very frustrating to watch. Ended up break-even from it, so hard to be too upset, but felt like it could have been much more. Can't criticise either player though, they both gave their absolute all.

Could arguably have put 5 units on Lu @ 7/4 and have guaranteed profit, but really felt he could kick-on and win the match so was prepared to take the risk of breaking even or making a big profit. Unfortunately it wasn't the latter.

[Solaris]

Mahut @ 13/10 v Mayer (4 units)
Mathieu @ 7/4 v Nieminen (3 units)

[Solaris]

Mahut @ 13/10 v Mayer (4 units) WON + 5.2 units
Mathieu @ 7/4 v Nieminen (3 units)

TOTAL PROFIT: + 221.58 units

Sela @ 9/4 v Karlovic (4 units)
Chela to win 2-0 @ 11/10 (4 units)
Sugita @ 11/10 v Groth (10 units)
Udomchoke @ 6/4 (10 units)

[Solaris]

Don't want to modify my thread posts with bets in, but made a mistake on the above post. Sugita and Udomchoke are to win 2-0 in sets, not simply match bets.

Mahut @ 13/10 v Mayer (4 units) WON + 5.2 units
Mathieu @ 7/4 v Nieminen (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Sela @ 9/4 v Karlovic (4 units) LOST - 4 units
Chela to win 2-0 @ 11/10 (4 units)
Sugita @ 11/10 to win 2-0 (10 units)
Udomchoke @ 6/4 to win 2-0 (10 units)
Mathieu @ 5/1 v Nieminen (4 units) 6-7 0-1 LOST - 4 units
Adding 2 units @ 14/1 6-7 0-2. LOST - 2 units
Gonzalez @ 9/4 v Souza *0-4 40-40 (10 units) LOST - 10 units

TOTAL PROFIT: + 198.58 units

Gonzalez lost 7-6 in the second. Had he won, there would have been a great chance to trade out. Nevermind...

3 bets left for tonight. Was around 208 units after this morning (at a peak of 221) and could go down to 164. Wouldn't be nice but it happens unfortunately.

Might add a couple of other bits if I see anything I like.

[Solaris]

Mathieu @ 5/1 v Nieminen (4 units) 6-7 0-1

Very tight first set, hoping Mathieu will allow me to trade out for profit.

Adding 2 units @ 14/1 6-7 0-2.

9 units total invested. Let's go Mathieu!

[Solaris]

Gonzalez @ 9/4 v Souza *0-4 40-40 (10 units)

If Gonzalez gets any sort of momentum the odds will flip flop very quickly.

[Solaris]

Khromacheva @ 10/11 v Sema (10 units)
Khromacheva to win 2-0 @ 2/1 (5 units)

I'm done for the day.

TOTAL PROFIT: + 198.58 units

Pending action:

Chela to win 2-0 @ 11/10 (4 units)
Sugita @ 11/10 to win 2-0 (10 units)
Udomchoke @ 6/4 to win 2-0 (10 units)

[Solaris]

Khromacheva @ 10/11 v Sema (10 units) WON + 9.1 units
Khromacheva to win 2-0 @ 2/1 (5 units) LOST - 5 units
Chela to win 2-0 @ 11/10 (4 units) WON + 4.4 units
Udomchoke @ 6/4 to win 2-0 (10 units) WON + 15 units

TOTAL PROFIT: + 222.08 units

One match pending:

Sugita @ 11/10 to win 2-0 (10 units)

Adding:

Nieminen @ 11/4 v Monfils (3 units)
Kohlschreiber @ 9/4 v Gasquet (4 units)
Karlovic @ evens v Youzhny (3 units)
Haase @ 9/10 v Lacko (3 units)

[Solaris]

Not a great day so far...

Adding in-play: Karlovic @ 2/1 v Youzhny 6-7 3-2* (10 units)

[Solaris]

Sugita @ 11/10 to win 2-0 (10 units) LOST - 10 units
Nieminen @ 11/4 v Monfils (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Kohlschreiber @ 9/4 v Gasquet (4 units) WON + 9 units
Karlovic @ evens v Youzhny (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Haase @ 9/10 v Lacko (3 units) LOST - 3 units
Adding in-play: Karlovic @ 2/1 v Youzhny 6-7 3-2* (10 units) LOST - 10 units
Kohlscreiber to win 2-0 in sets: second set is *2-5 30-30 (3 units) LOST - 3 units

TOTAL PROFIT: + 199.08 units

10/1 was far too big to ignore. Can never spell Kohlschreiber's name properly either without checking.

Should have traded out in the Karlovic match. He lost in the third set tie-break (8-6 in the breaker as well). So gutting.

Poor decision by me, should have just locked the profit up. Felt Youzhny was on the slide and with Karlovic serving so well could only see him winning. Sigh.