An Ape and a notebook, how long will it take?

[jgcblack]

Yah, AQo..

I've done some numbers and on the range I thought he would have at the time.. I don't know what do you guys think? (in before everyone says 'just cf vs older guys')

Older (but doesn't need someone to put his chips in for him yet ) gentleman
Range pre - roughly 35-40% of hands..
All suited J's, Q's, K's, all broadway, lots of connectors + some pairs

Range he bets
50% of range above (20% of all hands)
All Jx's, 88/99/ all Tx's, some gutshots (some % of the time) and some broadways we dominate (KQ, Q9, etc) maybe even AQ.

Range he calls our check raise all in with - we'd planned out the cshove before we checked, we were check folding to UTG+2 but shoving vs btn. (both older gents)
AJ (66% time) KJ (50% time) QJ (33% time) A10 (20% time) J10 (100% obv)
= calling range of 3.2% of all hands or 12% of above range.
Vs this range I have a 27.1% equity


Maths
As I see it we need to do the following calculation to work out if it is a +ev spot to check raise.. (its late, i apologise if this is completely the wrong calc or the numbers don't work)

1. we check shove and he folds
= 55k + 10k + (5+5+5+2.4+1.2+2.7)
= our stack + his bet + pot size (raises pre + blinds + antes)
= 65 + 21.3
= bets + preflop pot
= 86.3 * 0.88
= total pot * % he folds

= 75.9k



2. we check shove and he calls and wins                      (really not sure if this is relevant)
= (86.3 + 45) * 0.729

= 0k for us
= -55k



3. we check shove and he calls and we win
= 86.3 + 45
= pot size plus our stack + his call
= 131.3
= total pot

= + 76.3k - 27.1% of the time we're called by range above.




So this is where I take my made up numbers (no idea of outcome yet) and say that I think

88% of the time we expect him to bet/fold the range above and we WIN 31.3K

12% of the time we're called and that splits into two options

Option 1 is we get called and lose = 12*0.729 = 8.748% of the time we LOSE our stack
Option 2 is we get called and win = 12*0.271 = 3.252% of the time we WIN 131

= (0.88*+31.3) + (0.088*-55k) + (0.033*+131)
= +27.54 - 4.84 + 4.32
= +27.02k Ev
IF and only IF the ranges and estimations are good.......


Is this correct/ make sense?
(I think if I've been generous anywhere it will be in the range that he bets... as he may check back/give up on some hands like 99 but I also think there can be an argument he might bet these some % of the time..)

[jgcblack]

TR is relatively bland tbh...

- Played solid @ start..

- Then tried to bluff someone with JT on QQxA when a reg-fish check minr turn and I didn't think he would ACTUALLY do this with a Q so I shoved and he sigh called with KQ... lol so our gutshot is dead then. woops.

- Then made a 14bb reship over Jack Allen's (competent player) button open.. he 'should' be opening close to 80/90% here in my opinion as my hands are tied and the BB was super tight.
I expect him to open 80% and call 20% or something similar so the 3.5bb's in there should be coming my way A LOT and 42o has plenty of get there vs his KQ/ AQ type hands when we get called.
He snapped with A6o and we saw a  flop... nothing changed and we double.

- We then 3bt shove over his next open and another couple of times till we're back to almost average

- We then value bet really nice in the following hand.
10's UTG we open, flatted UTG+2 and by Whale in CO...
Check    flop
Lead 600 into 1.4k on  turn, called by UTG +2 only..
Bet 2k into 2.6k on    and we win when called. (like!)


- Then we get some momentum and make a straight vs 99's with    and we check back flop and turn and river straight.. paid off for 4k total.

- Up to 23.4k at break (nice!)

- Carry on trucking and then get in AK vs KK aipf against the Regfish... Maybe this is close/ marginal but I open AK EP and he 3bt's from SB, I 4bt/call.  Door card A.
Massive double up to 45k.

- Play nice and solid for a bit, contemplate the AK vs KK hand.. and sigh it off.

- Get KK otb after being pretty aggy otb all night... get 22's to 3bt/5bt with a little speachplay.. - do a hold and have 65k.

- Carry on trucking... and chip up a bit..

- Eventually get Jack Allen shoving 14bb's or so SB vs my BB and i snap with  ..
He has 
and we do a win. Ul sir, didn't deserve that.

- Get moved tables and chip up a little with some non-showdown pots.

- Card dead for a long time but don't do much about it as I have a competent player to my left, he's short stacked atm tho.  When he busts he's replaced by another good player this time with chips.. (fml)

- Lose a flip AJ vs 77 for about 10k, down to 90k, average is 40k

- Lose another small flip with 66 vs A9 for 20k, down to 80k @ 6/1200/200 average is 45k.

- Fold    7 handed to UTG open from older nit fella when he 3.5x's and were in BB.... sucks but i don't like my options.  (felt good to be sensible and not spew in spots like this)

- Get pounded on the two times i open.. one of them i cbet flop and turn.. but fold to turn raise..

- Then find    UTG with 21BB and literally have NO IDEA what to do... so I just fold.

- Next hand AQ...


That was my tournament....

[cambridgealex]

Without looking at the Maths, the thng that caught my eye as being almost certainly well off was this

88% of the time we expect him to bet/fold the range above and we WIN 31.3K

12% of the time we're called and that splits into two options

I don't know the villain in question and it's perfectly possible you are correct with this, but in my experience, taking a general population tendency, I'd say it was far more likely to be the other way around - he's bet/calling the flop 88% and folding 12%.

I'd be surprised if he folded KJ, vsurprised AJ and NOT surprised to see him snap with any Jx or tank AT, KT.

So thats obviously going to affect the numbers quite a bit. It's quite easy in these spots to overestimate you're equity when called. "I have two overs a a gutshot, that's 10 outs, that's loads!". In reality, when called by the weak parts of their range they always have blockers (AJ, KJ), leaving you with 6/9outs) and when you're called by the strong parts (sets , two pairs) you're left with 4 outs.

Like I said, you were there, but from what I known of DTD and live players in general, especially in grand prixes (correct plural?), I'd expect this to be a losing play long term.

[jgcblack]

I definitely think that its hard to get the numbers spot on but that I can have been 'generous for sure'...

But i just don't see him bet/calling J8 sooted 100% of the time.. no way.  It wasn't a hesitant cshove from me.

It was clearly pre-meditated and as such I just expect that much more honesty and 'sigh-ing' how much is it... oh its 45k more (45% of his stack approx) and then.... some folding.



But you may well be right, its why I've put it up.  I just can't see it being horrible, but it might not be as high as +27k real terms.


The real question is do we do this... or do we just cf and try to reshove/ shove in better spots and get a double up that way?
(in before someone says "obv we do that instead of try to bluff an old guy off J10x")



Par example - lets shift the numbers a little...
= (0.40*+31.3) + (0.437*-55k) + (0.163*+131)
= +12.52 - 24.04 + 21.35
= +9.83k Ev

I can agree this might be much more realistic... but its not what I thought at the time

[cambridgealex]

Cbetting is definitey ok. He'll fold a bunch - underpairs that are ahead, live cards that have equity, get called by KQ which we have in rough shape etc. So plenty of reasons to cbet, few to check/fold. But yeh, I'd bet fold vs most villains uness you have a really good reason to think he'll raise/fold Jx to you.

The 42o hand is a bit zomg.

The JT bluff where you get c/minraised on AKxK sounds like it isn't likely to be a winning play. The double barrel itself must be bad, never calls flop without Ax or Kx thus never folds the turn, this is pretty basic stuff. And when you get c/raised on the turn? This should tell you all you need to know mate. FOLD!

Edit: realised I've got the board wrong so ignore that last bit. Except the bit about folding

[jgcblack]

Cbetting is definitey ok. He'll fold a bunch - underpairs that are ahead, live cards that have equity, get called by KQ which we have in rough shape etc. So plenty of reasons to cbet, few to check/fold. But yeh, I'd bet fold vs most villains uness you have a really good reason to think he'll raise/fold Jx to you.

The 42o hand is a bit zomg.

The JT bluff where you get c/minraised on AKxK sounds like it isn't likely to be a winning play. The double barrel itself must be bad, never calls flop without Ax or Kx thus never folds the turn, this is pretty basic stuff. And when you get c/raised on the turn? This should tell you all you need to know mate. FOLD!

Correction
QQx A...

He can have A LOT of randoms otf... can even cr Ax ott.... but I will happily admit it was an outlevelling exercise.  And I passed.

The 42 hand is a bit zomg..... WHY? its a competent opponent who I don't think is going to call as much as he should do preflop and as such the correct alteration from us is to shove wider pre.
No?

And about the Cbet in the AQ hand.. - I have 55k and the pot is close to 23k, how can i ever cbet/fold two overs and a nut gutshot?  (think that has to be bad I'm afraid)

[cambridgealex]

The 42 hand is a bit zomg..... WHY? its a competent opponent who I don't think is going to call as much as he should do preflop and as such the correct alteration from us is to shove wider pre.
No?

And about the Cbet in the AQ hand.. - I have 55k and the pot is close to 23k, how can i ever cbet/fold two overs and a nut gutshot?  (think that has to be bad I'm afraid)

A lovely phrase I heard recently springs to mind here. "helping him is like rearranging deckchairs on the titanic".

Surely a player who considers himself value at 1.2 in a £400 comp doesn't need explaining why piling 14bbs with 42o over an open from a competant player is bad. In short, it's not profitable. Run the numbers, and remember he's raise/snapped A6o. So consider that when you input how much he's raise folding vs you.

The AQ hand, why can't you cbet 8k out of 55k and fold to a shove or raise? It's totally standard...

[cambridgealex]

In the interest of balance, some good folds in there, such as 77 utg with 21bbs, AJdd over a utg 3.5x, folding AQ too. Nice vbet with Tens and some other good stuff going on.

[jgcblack]

The 42 hand is a bit zomg..... WHY? its a competent opponent who I don't think is going to call as much as he should do preflop and as such the correct alteration from us is to shove wider pre.
No?

And about the Cbet in the AQ hand.. - I have 55k and the pot is close to 23k, how can i ever cbet/fold two overs and a nut gutshot?  (think that has to be bad I'm afraid)

A lovely phrase I heard recently springs to mind here. "helping him is like rearranging chairs on the titanic".

Surely a player who considers himself value at 1.2 in a £400 comp doesn't need explaining why piling 14bbs with 42o over an open from a competent player is bad. In short, it's not profitable. Run the numbers, and remember he's raise/snapped A6o. So consider that when you input how much he's raise folding vs you.

The AQ hand, why can't you cbet 8k out of 55k and fold to a shove or raise? It's totally standard...

ouch that hit a sweet spot...

Probably fair... and tbh im too tired to run the numbers right now but I'm going to give him a call range of something like 55+ A2+ K8+ Q9+ and work that against an 80 and a 90% open range.  I'll be suprised if its -ev by a lot. (am tired might be being 'special')

and the AQ hand, I guess that's a bet amount that could be done.. didn't like the idea at the time, guess i would need a better mtt player (than me) to go through all the options and why we would consider/ not consider them

In the interest of balance, some good folds in there, such as 77 utg with 21bbs, AJdd over a utg 3.5x, folding AQ too. Nice vbet with Tens and some other good stuff going on.

thanks, this kinda stuff didn't use to happen at all.. there's a LOT more of this kinda stuff nowadays.. mainly due to playing so many hands with online cash games.


Thanks for the comments... all appreciated even when not patting me on the back.
sorry to hear you're having a rough time atm, enjoy Columbia!

[cambridgealex]

Yeh it's making me cranky, hence the "hard time", but it's all constrictive and defo not as harsh as I could've been!

Grand Prix today? Could have a beer or two in the break?

[jgcblack]

Yeh it's making me cranky, hence the "hard time", but it's all constrictive and defo not as harsh as I could've been!

Grand Prix today? Could have a beer or two in the break?

no mate, gave it the one shot... its just too far to drive up on my own and not be able to play cash to balance out tourny variance.

I'll be grinding @ home all day as i have it off... and as my mate Chris says "can't win on a friday? then quit poker."

[cambridgealex]

I don't have stove on the iPad, but using the fpp fold equity calculator ( really good site) and inputting shoving 14bbs over a 2bb open with 1.5bbs already there (you said 3.5bbs "up for grabs so assume it was pre antes), and guessing at 25% equity when called (this could be slightly off but won't be far wrong).

Works out you need a fold 83% of the time. Obviously not happening when he calls A6o!

[jgcblack]

ok so i did the numbers but i think im doing something wrong as its not coming out with the losing being - enough....

he has a call range of 28.7% after opening 80/90%

and we have 30% vs that range.


So
Opens 80%
= (0.64*+17bb)                +    (0.70*-14bb)                               +   (0.30*+30bb)
= times he opens and folds + times he opens and calls and has 70% + times he opens and calls and i win 30%
= +10.88 - 9.8 + 9
= +10.08bb

Opens 90%
= (0.68*+17bb) + (0.70*-14bb) + (0.30*+131)
= +11.56 - 9.8  + 9
= +10.76bb

[jgcblack]

I don't have stove on the iPad, but using the fpp fold equity calculator ( really good site) and inputting shoving 14bbs over a 2bb open with 1.5bbs already there (you said 3.5bbs "up for grabs so assume it was pre antes), and guessing at 25% equity when called (this could be slightly off but won't be far wrong).

Works out you need a fold 83% of the time. Obviously not happening when he calls A6o!

sounds like a great app.... link me?

That definitely sounds more realistic, don't know what I'm doing wrong with my numbers.  But I worked out he folds something like 65% if he opens 80% and calls a 'wide' range..

It was pre antes.. I guess I just saw all the  that he will open and fold 100%... maybe blinded myself..

[jgcblack]

Done with all this stuff for tonight.. need some sleep before i have to take C to her interview... gl her while Im snoring at home.