An Ape and a notebook, how long will it take?

[cambridgealex]

Google is your friend, it's just a webiste, not an app

[david3103]

Ok, so you did the numbers...







Every time I see a post like this whether from you, or from anyone else, my eyes glaze over.

It seems to me that most of them start with the premise that we want to prove that our play was justifiable and thus we play with the figures until we have an x% he folds, and a y% he loses that satisfy our needs.

Maybe I'm just not bright enough, I'm old for sure so all this new stuff has to squeeze into the remaining brain cells, I believe it was the great philosopher Homer who said

And how is education supposed to make me feel smarter? Besides, every time I learn something new, it pushes some old stuff out of my brain. Remember when I took that home winemaking course, and I forgot how to drive?
~ Homer

I do understand that with perfect knowledge of our opponent's ranges we can make perfect decisions. But I also understand that our opponent's range isn't knowable perfectly. Fuck, I doubt that we know our own range to the degree of accuracy required in knowing our opponent's that would allow us to make marginal decisions accurately.

[George2Loose]

Nothing to do with numbers. John wanted to show a deuce when jack folded

[tikay]

Nothing to do with numbers. John wanted to show a deuce when jack folded

 

[CHIPPYMAN]

Nothing to do with numbers. John wanted to show a deuce when jack folded

My hero finally speak !!!! Good speech mr. Coulder as always.

[jakally]

Some comments below on the maths you put up a few posts back.
Like the tournament report btw, and feels like you were a bit unlucky not to get through with a stack.

Yah, AQo..

I've done some numbers and on the range I thought he would have at the time.. I don't know what do you guys think? (in before everyone says 'just cf vs older guys')

Older (but doesn't need someone to put his chips in for him yet ) gentleman
Range pre - roughly 35-40% of hands..
All suited J's, Q's, K's, all broadway, lots of connectors + some pairs

Range he calls our check raise all in with - we'd planned out the cshove before we checked, we were check folding to UTG+2 but shoving vs btn. (both older gents)
AJ (66% time) KJ (50% time) QJ (33% time) A10 (20% time) J10 (100% obv)

With regards to the AQ hand.

Him calling the button with 35 - 40% of hands sounds much too wide.
Him bet/folding AJ one third of the time, and KJ half of the time can't even be close to being true.

It comes across as making the numbers fit the play.
(I'm not saying that the play is necessarily a losing one / bad one, in this particular spot, just that the maths is a bit spewy).

- Then made a 14bb reship over Jack Allen's (competent player) button open.. he 'should' be opening close to 80/90% here in my opinion as my hands are tied and the BB was super tight.
I expect him to open 80% and call 20% or something similar so the 3.5bb's in there should be coming my way A LOT and 42o has plenty of get there vs his KQ/ AQ type hands when we get called.
He snapped with A6o and we saw a   flop... nothing changed and we double.

- We then 3bt shove over his next open and another couple of times till we're back to almost average

I would imagine that Jack doesn't open 80 - 90% of the time in this spot, purely because you have a 14BB stack.
(If we feel that we always keep running into the upper part of people's ranges, it's probably because the bottom chunk of those ranges don't exist.)

[TL900]

Cbetting is definitey ok. He'll fold a bunch - underpairs that are ahead, live cards that have equity, get called by KQ which we have in rough shape etc. So plenty of reasons to cbet, few to check/fold. But yeh, I'd bet fold vs most villains uness you have a really good reason to think he'll raise/fold Jx to you.

The 42o hand is a bit zomg.

The JT bluff where you get c/minraised on AKxK sounds like it isn't likely to be a winning play. The double barrel itself must be bad, never calls flop without Ax or Kx thus never folds the turn, this is pretty basic stuff. And when you get c/raised on the turn? This should tell you all you need to know mate. FOLD!

Edit: realised I've got the board wrong so ignore that last bit. Except the bit about folding

All this, 42o is just spew plain and simple. A decent reshove range there vs competents who call atleast decently correct willbe something like A2s+ A7o+ K7s+ K9o+ Q8s+ QTo+ J8s+ JTo+ all the suited connectors down to like 67s, all pairs obv. 4 high is just spew and not profitable however you crunch the numbers. Something like this range seems decent, villian dependant. Prob should be tighter vs competent button opens.

Also hate the JT jam on AQQx hes not c/calling c/r'ing Ax here and he is never bluffing. I expect him to flip up Qx a hell of a lot. Just fold.

The AQ i can kinda see merits for but as alex said just cbet small and fold.

Your numbers are definitely off in some of these spots fwiw, and incorrect ranges. Like jack allen isnt raise calling Q9.

You dont have to win every pot you play in mtt's it feels like thats what your trying to do. Sometimes people just have it mate.

[rex008]

Like I said, you were there, but from what I known of DTD and live players in general, especially in grand prixes (correct plural?), I'd expect this to be a losing play long term.

Frankly couldn't give a stuff about the poker arguments, but I had to Google this one. It's quite debatable, apparently. Most answers say "Grands Prix" (correct French). But some would say if it's a named event ("DTD Grand Prix"), then the plural is just Grand Prix ("I've played in all the DTD Grand Prix"). But then when speaking, a lot of people will just add an S, so "Grand Prixs", pronounced "Grand Prees". Fascinating stuff.

[cambridgealex]

I suggest you ignore the numbers in your head in game (until you've worked on them and cracked them) and just think to yourself "what would x do". Where X is confirmed mtt sicko. "Have I ever read a HH on blonde/pokernews, seen on espn etc etc where X shoves this hand?".

I've never seen it say on Pokernews "Moorman busts EPT 3bet shove 42o" or "Toby Lewis exits the main event 4bet shoving 73o".

There's a reason good players usually exit tournaments with better hands than 42o.

[tikay]

Like I said, you were there, but from what I known of DTD and live players in general, especially in grand prixes (correct plural?), I'd expect this to be a losing play long term.

Frankly couldn't give a stuff about the poker arguments, but I had to Google this one. It's quite debatable, apparently. Most answers say "Grands Prix" (correct French). But some would say if it's a named event ("DTD Grand Prix"), then the plural is just Grand Prix ("I've played in all the DTD Grand Prix"). But then when speaking, a lot of people will just add an S, so "Grand Prixs", pronounced "Grand Prees". Fascinating stuff.

Thread getting very interesting, & we are now learning fings.

In common usage, I think the singular works fine, be it singular or plural.

[George2Loose]

I suggest you ignore the numbers in your head in game (until you've worked on them and cracked them) and just think to yourself "what would x do". Where X is confirmed mtt sicko. "Have I ever read a HH on blonde/pokernews, seen on espn etc etc where X shoves this hand?".

I've never seen it say on Pokernews "Moorman busts EPT 3bet shove 42o" or "Toby Lewis exits the main event 4bet shoving 73o".

There's a reason good players usually exit tournaments with better hands than 42o.

What about:

Alex Goulder finishes in 4th place.

From utg colburn tomlin limped. Alex Goulder moved all on from the small blind and tomlin snap called.

Tomlin: AQ
Goulder: J2

We can only assume Goulder looked at the jack twice as the board failed to help the reigning champion.

[jgcblack]

Nothing to do with numbers. John wanted to show a deuce when jack folded

My hero finally speak !!!! Good speech mr. Coulder as always.

Was a joke comment after the hand Frankie... Get over it pls.  I've said why I thought jack would be opening wide, we hadn't messed around with each other at all, as we recognised we didn't need to.  However I thought the adjustment to make if we dont think he's calling wide enough pre is that we shove wider... Is that not the case?


Jakally - I dont know how much he bets or bet/calls these hands I made an estimate based on the decision the guy looked and had been playing rather tight, HOWEVER when checked to, many people will have a stab.
And tbh its pretty hard to flop tp in this game.

I dont know if I did this because I was frustrated, or something but at the time I was 'not' necessarily trying to make him fold Jx, more a case of trying to make him fold a week range that may or may not have some equity vs me.

we all agree the JT hand was jonblack-esque in is spewability...


Has anyone checked the maths/ formulas are correct?
 

[skolsuper]

I suggest you ignore the numbers in your head in game (until you've worked on them and cracked them) and just think to yourself "what would x do". Where X is confirmed mtt sicko. "Have I ever read a HH on blonde/pokernews, seen on espn etc etc where X shoves this hand?".

I've never seen it say on Pokernews "Moorman busts EPT 3bet shove 42o" or "Toby Lewis exits the main event 4bet shoving 73o".

There's a reason good players usually exit tournaments with better hands than 42o.

What about:

Alex Goulder finishes in 4th place.

From utg colburn tomlin limped. Alex Goulder moved all on from the small blind and tomlin snap called.

Tomlin: AQ
Goulder: J2

We can only assume Goulder looked at the jack twice as the board failed to help the reigning champion.

Ahahahahhahahhhahhahahahahahahah

[TightEnd]

Like I said, you were there, but from what I known of DTD and live players in general, especially in grand prixes (correct plural?), I'd expect this to be a losing play long term.

Frankly couldn't give a stuff about the poker arguments, but I had to Google this one. It's quite debatable, apparently. Most answers say "Grands Prix" (correct French). But some would say if it's a named event ("DTD Grand Prix"), then the plural is just Grand Prix ("I've played in all the DTD Grand Prix"). But then when speaking, a lot of people will just add an S, so "Grand Prixs", pronounced "Grand Prees". Fascinating stuff.

Thread getting very interesting, & we are now learning fings.

In common usage, I think the singular works fine, be it singular or plural.

Singular and plural are the same

"I am playing the Grand Prix"

"I think all the Grand Prix are soft and I have a real hedge"

[pleno1]

Yeh dunno how often i gotta tell people turn raises equal the nuts.

Great post by jakally, if jack is decent then he won't be opening wide otb here.

Also ppl never folding jx on j10x Alex got it spot on you can bet here to fold out non equity hands like 44 but get unknown value from 78, 89, q9, qk etc.