Tips for Tikay

[arbboy]

Anyone tempted with the 8/15 the royal baby is a girl? Seems big to be given how short all the individual girl names are in the name market.  Kate was giving out cakes today with pink ribbons on to people waiting outside the hospital. Can't really see it being the case that they don't know it is a girl . Seems too good to be true.

I can't understand this.  Either it is known or not.  If some people know, then it is absurd to continue taking bets.

They can be effectively taking bets on whether it is known or not by going this price.  I agree with what you say but it will a closely guarded secret.  I just think the upside of the Bet ie it is weighed in already is bigger than taking 8/15 about a flip. Happy to leave it open for discussion.

[TightEnd]

Sunil Narine was banned for a supsect action over the winter and was, after remedial action, cleared for the IPL

In a game he was reported again by the umpires and the ICC ruled this morning that while the ban is lifted he is not allowed to bowl his off-spinner!

so he can bowl his knuckle ball, straight ones etc but not his stock ball

This of course dramatically reduces his mystery....no longer do you have to pick which way it is going to spin and so can bat accordingly

realistically, this reduces his role to a stock bowler rathen than the at times unplayable wicket-taking threat he has been

we (nellberg) went under his wickets in a recent game and it will be interesting to see any adjustment in prices for the next KKR game in which Narine plays   

[arbboy]

What am i missing here?  Chelski 2/5 to beat Palace?  Really? The Palace honeymoon under the GOAT Pards seems to have ground to a halt in recent weeks with successive 2-0 home defeats to out of form teams below them in the table.  Regression to the mean seems to be occurring with Palace after their relatively easy league schedule over the past few months finishes with 4 brutal games to finish.   I was expecting Chelski to be around the 1/4 mark for this.  I appreciate they have a mid week game tonight and Palace will be fully rested all week.  Still can't possibly have Chelski at 2/5 for this game.  Pretty sure Palace are being massively over rated for this game.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/chelsea-v-crystal-palace/winner

Looking further afield into the ante post markets for top 10 finish.  Palace look an incredible lay around the 12/1 mark if you can get anything like that matched on bf.  (paddy offer 1/16 they don't finish in top 10).  They have the worst GD out of the competing teams.  Stoke v Swans and Everton v West Ham play each other so there are gtd to be even further afield from 10th spot than they already are whatever happens in those games.  If there is a winner in the Everton West Ham game (72% likely) then Palace will be 5 points behind 10th spot with inferior GD (so effectively 6 points behind) with the following run in which the spreads have them in for picking up 3 points overall from.

Chelski away
Manure Home
lolapool away
Swans home.

1/16 Palace not to finish in the top 10 looks a lump on job to me.

On a similar reverse spot I have just backed Swansea at 1/12 on bf to finish in the top 10.  Given there has to be points dropped between Everton and West Ham one of those teams will have to find 6 or 7 points from their final three games and Swansea lose out.  Swansea effectively only need a maximum of 1 win to be virtually certain of a top 10 spot.  Hoping the guy who was keen to lay the 1.08 comes back with some more offerings on bf later.

[nellberg]

Sunil Narine was banned for a supsect action over the winter and was, after remedial action, cleared for the IPL

In a game he was reported again by the umpires and the ICC ruled this morning that while the ban is lifted he is not allowed to bowl his off-spinner!

so he can bowl his knuckle ball, straight ones etc but not his stock ball

This of course dramatically reduces his mystery....no longer do you have to pick which way it is going to spin and so can bat accordingly

realistically, this reduces his role to a stock bowler rathen than the at times unplayable wicket-taking threat he has been

we (nellberg) went under his wickets in a recent game and it will be interesting to see any adjustment in prices for the next KKR game in which Narine plays   

do you think they'll still pick him? they went with hoggy last night are their mystery spinner, which was a joy to watch his enthusiasm at 44 and the fact people still have no idea which way its going. botha is a solid cricketer, adding batting and fielding to the mix, and their young indian cariappa is a mystery spinner. a big part of kkr's game plan over the last few years has been his overs though, tough spot for them. my theory on him was that because they couldn't pick him no-one would really attack him, now opposition would just play him like any other spinner so thats out the window now

[Horneris]

You can put Krunic down as a loser. Failed to take 3 set points @ 5-4 in the first set and lost it. In the 2nd set she fought back from 2 breaks down, 2-5 and saved 2 match points, eventually taking the tiebreak 7-3.

The third set was extremely close and yet again Krunic showed her fighting qualities to come back from 5-3 down to 5-5 but eventually succumbed to a 5-7 7-6 5-7 loss 

[Horneris]

Extra annoying as the outright fav Pliskova is a set and a break down currently and the 2nd fav, Safarova lost this morning so the draw has opened up as anticipated.

[TightEnd]

 "If I continue to play like this I won’t get beaten."

[arbboy]

"If I continue to play like this I won’t get beaten."

Can't disagree with his confidence.  He has looked awesome in the last week. 

[Marky147]

Extra annoying as the outright fav Pliskova is a set and a break down currently and the 2nd fav, Safarova lost this morning so the draw has opened up as anticipated.

Unlucky mate, but cheers for putting it up.

[TightEnd]

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 39s40 seconds ago

Ladbrokes shop customer in Glasgow just had £30k on a Tory Majority at 7/1. Odds now into 6/1. http://ow.ly/MgZXS 

[arbboy]

Ladbrokes Politics ‏@LadPolitics 39s40 seconds ago

Ladbrokes shop customer in Glasgow just had £30k on a Tory Majority at 7/1. Odds now into 6/1. http://ow.ly/MgZXS  

Comical story.  Why would you move from 7/1 and go the correct price no party wins a majority at 1/8 where there is no margin built in that price for you?  Just hold it and keep betting it back at 9/1 on the company betfair account if you are that full of it.  Yet another example of why Ladbrokes as a company are worth south of £1bn nowadays.  

As a side point though it MBN to be so rich you can just rock around Glasgow with 30 large and place such bad value bets and set fire to thousands in £ev!

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

Could we have £15 on graham mcdowell to win group 13 at the world matchplay.  his record in matchplay is good and it is a new course for the event which will put more emphasis on course management.

Suggest 15 mcdowell to win group 13 @ 11/4 with betfred.

[TightEnd]

Afternoon Mr T.

Could we have £15 on graham mcdowell to win group 13 at the world matchplay.  his record in matchplay is good and it is a new course for the event which will put more emphasis on course management.

Suggest 15 mcdowell to win group 13 @ 11/4 with betfred.

Market   Selection   Price   Hcp
Groups - WGC Cadillac Match Play
Group 13
   Mcdowell, Graeme    11/4    
Total stake   £ 15.00
Estimated return   £ 56.25
Full stake   £ 15.00
Full estimated return   £ 56.25

[luther101]

Deeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeney

[luther101]

CHEERS Rich